Bowling Green at Texas A&M - 2024 Matchup Preview

Bowling Green Falcons at Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Texas A&M -21 (50.5) (-1450) Open: 0.0
Texas A&M 26 - Bowling Green: 20

Falcons (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BGSU coming off BYE
TA&M is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas A&M -19.5 (SP+ TA&M -19)
Projected Score: BGSU: 15 - TA&M: 35 (50)
TA&M Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
BGSU Travel: 1027 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (8 - 5) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 21 (31 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
TA&M Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Bowling Green vs Fordham	-15.5	60.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Bowling Green at Penn State	+35.5	51.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Bowling Green at Texas A&M	+21.0	50.5	L 20 - 26	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Bowling Green vs Old Dominion	-11.0	51.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/5	Bowling Green at Akron	-17.0	48.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/12	Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois	-3.0	46.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/19	Bowling Green vs Kent State	-24.0	54.5	W 27 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/26	Bowling Green at Toledo	+1.5	47.5	W 41 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Bowling Green at Central Michigan	-14.5	47.5	W 23 - 13	U	N
Tue 11/12	Bowling Green vs Western Michigan	-9.5	57.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Bowling Green at Ball State	-12.5	54.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	-3.0	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Thu 12/26	Bowling Green vs Arkansas State	-10.5	54.5	L 31 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Texas A&M's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas A&M vs Notre Dame	-3.0	47.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/7	Texas A&M vs McNeese	-48.5	56.5	W 52 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/14	Texas A&M at Florida	-4.5	47.0	W 33 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas A&M vs Bowling Green	-21.0	50.5	W 26 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/28	Texas A&M vs Arkansas	-6.5	50.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/5	Texas A&M vs Missouri	-3.0	47.5	W 41 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Texas A&M at Mississippi State	-21.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	Texas A&M vs LSU	-2.0	54.5	W 38 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Texas A&M at South Carolina	-3.0	43.5	L 20 - 44	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Texas A&M vs New Mexico State	-38.5	54.5	W 38 - 3	U	N
Sat 11/23	Texas A&M at Auburn	-2.5	47.0	L 41 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/30	Texas A&M vs Texas	+4.5	49.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Fri 12/27	Texas A&M vs USC	-3.5	56.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	20.5	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24.3	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2
TA&M	#42 (.24)	43% (54)	33.8	44% (58)	3.02 (85)	136	43% (58)	271	4.15 (44)	#21 (.1)	37% (20)	21	34% (7)	40% (46)	2.76 (6)	45.5	1.1	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TA&M		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	13	20.5	24	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18
TA&M Defense	13	21	15.3	37%	2.76	1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	34%	40%	22%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	13	24.3	29	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15
TA&M Offense	13	33.8	31.1	43.2%	4.15	1.1	22	407	136	271	3.9	48%	51%	44%	43%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8
Texas A&M	13	31:24	22.1	43%	60%	5.9	45.5	1.1	1	7.4	3.2	2	35.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)
TA&M Defense	13	47% (35)	34% (7)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (9)	2.46 (6)	61% (13)	15% (4)	0.99 (67)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)
TA&M Offense	13	48% (84)	44% (58)	35.1	136.2	3.9	23 (46)	.14 (76)	3.02 (85)	78% (33)	9% (50)	0.94 (97)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)
TA&M Defense	13	52% (99)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.28 (77)	1.7 (98)	38% (3)	26% (22)	.18 (11)	7% (33)	2.2 (118)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)
TA&M Offense	13	51% (48)	43% (58)	21.1	32.7	270.8	8.3	12.9	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (41)	1.7 (23)	31% (60)	33% (46)	.46 (26)	5% (31)	2.3 (17)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 230.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -2.77 Texas A&M: 17.02

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -1.8 Texas A&M: 17.0

Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 17.02 #24
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 18.38 #83
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: 6.01 #35
2024 Talent Rating: 481.00 #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 59 #5
Texas A&M's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas A&M's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.0 #13
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #21
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #19

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas A&M 35
Bowling Green 15

Projected Total Points: 50

Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.1
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Texas A&M's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Texas A&M	26	Bowling Green	20	Texas A&M -21	Bowling Green	50.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas A&M	1	0	0 Overs
Bowling Green	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#73) BGSU at (#24) TA&M

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	TA&M
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#73	#24
SP+SP+	#77	#13
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#57
OffenseOff	#46	#67
DefenseDef	#29	#58
Spec TeamsST	#18	#100
TalentTal	#106	#18
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#5

Bowling Green Notes(11/25) Bullied Ball St. Finale vs M OH for MAC title gm
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
(8/6) Will take lumps vs Penn St/Tex A&M early
Bowling Green Injury Report

Texas A&M Notes(12/28) 0-3 finish. Elko didn't change a thing in yr 1
(11/30) Off pitiful vs Tex, Rgame awful, Run Def mauled
(11/30) Beat LSU and NOTHING else to finish 8-4
(11/24) Def mauled by Aub, comeback fell in 4 OT
(11/5) Lead RB Moss (765 yds) out for season (leg)
(10/27) QB Reed 3 TD rush over LSU, DL was diff in game
(10/19) Off bad vs MSU. Def just OK this week
(10/7) Weigman/Rgame/Def great in rout of Mizzu.
(9/28) Def/Reed just good enough vs Hogs. Run D great
(9/26) Rgame 237 (5.6 ypc) in fight w/ BG. Reed better QB
(9/16) Rgame 310 (5.6 ypc) @ UF. QB Reed adds mobility
(8/31) Wegman awful vs ND (12/30/2 Int). RB? Playmakers?
Texas A&M Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TA&M Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#46	#58
SuccessSuc	#81	#20
ExplosiveExp	#25	#110
PPAPPA	#74	#21
PowerPwr	#56	#35
SP+SP+	#79	#19
Pts POPPO	#87	#6
HavocHav	#103	#5

Bowling Green Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TA&M Def
Run GameRun	#49	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#7
Run ExplRExp	#24	#67
PPAExp	#65	#9
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#6
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#10
TackleTak	-	#115

Bowling Green Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TA&M Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#101
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#98
PPAExp	#72	#77
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#70	#29
F7 HavocF7	#121	#4
DB HavocDB	#54	#33

Texas A&M on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#29
SuccessSuc	#54	#63
ExplosiveExp	#36	#46
PPAPPA	#42	#44
PowerPwr	#83	#46
SP+SP+	#21	#75
Pts POPPO	#44	#62
HavocHav	#36	#41

Texas A&M Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#56	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#119
Run ExplRExp	#97	#41
PPAExp	#76	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#49	-
OL YdsOLY	#85	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#24	#132
TackleTak	-	#37

Texas A&M Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#58	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#23	#111
PPAExp	#41	#35
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#39
F7 HavocF7	#50	#67
DB HavocDB	#31	#21

Program Comparison
TA&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kyle Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Texas A&M -21.0 (50.5)
Texas A&M won vs Bowling Green this year (26-20)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat Bowling Green in 2024 (26-20)

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak	269	402	67%	3044	18	5	7.6
Lucian Anderson III	5	12	42%	32	1	1	2.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	166	898	6	5.4	73
Jaison Patterson	99	426	5	4.3	41
Jamal Johnson	26	188	1	7.2	41
Rahkeem Smith	20	128	3	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	117	1550	10	13.2	65
Malcolm Johnson Jr. (Tr)	49	573	3	11.7	50
Rahkeem Smith	25	349	3	14.0	66
Jamal Johnson	31	229	1	7.4	36

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brock Horne	81	6	2	2	1
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
CJ Brown (Tr)	73	2	0	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Ali Saad	40	9	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Oladokun	35	1	0	7
Ja'Corey Benjamin	26	1	0	5
Todd Bumphis (Tr)	8	1	1	3

TA&M's OC Collin Klein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Marcel Reed	147	240	61%	1864	15	6	7.8
Conner Weigman	64	114	56%	819	3	5	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Le'Veon Moss	121	765	10	6.3	75
Amari Daniels	139	661	8	4.8	71
Marcel Reed	116	547	7	4.7	31
E.J. Smith (Tr)	54	207	0	3.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Thomas	39	574	8	14.7	73
Jabre Barber (Tr)	38	381	2	10.0	58
Jahdae Walker	29	345	2	11.9	40
Tre Watson (Tr)	21	280	1	13.3	33

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

TA&M's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taurean York	83	10	3	2	4
Dalton Brooks	59	6	1	3	2
Marcus Ratcliffe (Tr)	48	4	0	1	0
Scooby Williams (Tr)	43	8	0	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Caraway	37	14	4	4	2
Cashius Howell (Tr)	40	9	4	8	7
Taurean York	83	10	3	2	4
Malick Sylla	6	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will Lee III (Tr)	42	1	0	0	10
Cashius Howell (Tr)	40	9	4	8	7
Albert Regis	36	3	1	2	6