Bowling Green at Akron - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Bowling Green -17 (48.5) (-750) Open: -14.5
Bowling Green 27 - Akron: 20 (Mid-American)

Falcons (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AKR is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Bowling Green -13.5 (SP+ BGSU -16)
Projected Score: BGSU: 31 - AKR: 18 (49)
BGSU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
BGSU Travel: 112 miles

Zips (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Joe Moorhead (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
AKR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Bowling Green vs Fordham	-15.5	60.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Bowling Green at Penn State	+35.5	51.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Bowling Green at Texas A&M	+21.0	50.5	L 20 - 26	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Bowling Green vs Old Dominion	-11.0	51.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/5	Bowling Green at Akron	-17.0	48.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/12	Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois	-3.0	46.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/19	Bowling Green vs Kent State	-24.0	54.5	W 27 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/26	Bowling Green at Toledo	+1.5	47.5	W 41 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Bowling Green at Central Michigan	-14.5	47.5	W 23 - 13	U	N
Tue 11/12	Bowling Green vs Western Michigan	-9.5	57.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Bowling Green at Ball State	-12.5	54.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	-3.0	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Thu 12/26	Bowling Green vs Arkansas State	-10.5	54.5	L 31 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Akron's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Akron at Ohio State	+50.5	58.5	L 6 - 52	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Akron at Rutgers	+24.5	41.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	Akron vs Colgate	-13.5	48.5	W 31 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	Akron at South Carolina	+25.0	42.0	L 7 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	Akron at Ohio	+8.5	46.0	L 10 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/5	Akron vs Bowling Green	+17.0	48.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Akron at Western Michigan	+9.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Akron vs Eastern Michigan	+2.5	50.5	W 25 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Akron vs Buffalo	-1.0	49.0	L 30 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/13	Akron at Northern Illinois	+14.0	43.5	L 16 - 29	O	Y
Tue 11/19	Akron at Kent State	-10.5	49.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Akron vs Toledo	+9.5	50.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	20.5	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24.3	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2
AKR	#129 (.04)	36% (124)	22.3	41% (86)	2.74 (123)	81	34% (121)	198	2.59 (131)	#29 (.12)	39% (37)	27.4	41% (53)	38% (22)	3.78 (68)	60.2	1.8	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AKR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	13	20.5	24	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18
AKR Defense	12	27.4	18.5	39.2%	3.78	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	38%	14%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	13	24.3	29	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15
AKR Offense	12	22.3	27.5	36.4%	2.59	1.8	17	279	81	198	2.8	40%	58%	41%	34%	18%	.04

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8
Akron	12	29:33	16.7	33%	35%	6.9	60.2	1.8	0.9	5.2	1.6	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)
AKR Defense	12	52% (100)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.11 (49)	2.91 (38)	72% (62)	10% (77)	1.09 (110)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)
AKR Offense	12	40% (124)	41% (86)	28.8	81	2.8	12 (116)	.09 (97)	2.74 (123)	81% (16)	10% (72)	0.9 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)
AKR Defense	12	47% (34)	38% (22)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.18 (19)	1.7 (102)	35% (23)	30% (63)	.31 (67)	5% (112)	2.2 (115)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)
AKR Offense	12	58% (14)	34% (121)	21.5	35.4	197.6	5.6	9.2	10 (120)	15 (116)	.07 (127)	1.4 (128)	35% (118)	24% (120)	.13 (122)	8% (121)	2.1 (54)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 230.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -2.77 Akron: -15.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -1.8 Akron: -17.9

Akron's Power Ratings
Akron's Power Rating: -15.965 #121
Akron's Offense Rating: 12.44 #118
Akron's Defense Rating: 12.15 #90
2024 Talent Rating: 294.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
Akron's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Akron's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Akron's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.7 #129
Akron's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 31
Akron 18

Projected Total Points: 49

Akron Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Akron's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/18	Bowling Green	16	Akron	19	Bowling Green -2.5	Akron	47.5	Under
2024	10/05	Akron	20	Bowling Green	27	Bowling Green -17	Akron	48.5	Under
2023	10/21	Bowling Green	41	Akron	14	Bowling Green -7	Bowling Green	37.0	Over
2022	10/01	Akron	28	Bowling Green	31	Bowling Green -9	Akron	49.5	Over
2021	10/09	Bowling Green	20	Akron	35	Bowling Green -14	Akron	46.0	Over
2020	12/05	Akron	31	Bowling Green	3	Akron -2.5	Akron	54.5	Under
2019	11/02	Bowling Green	35	Akron	6	Bowling Green -3.5	Bowling Green	49.5	Under
2018	11/17	Akron	6	Bowling Green	21	Akron -6.5	Bowling Green	48.5	Under
2017	09/30	Bowling Green	23	Akron	34	Akron -3	Akron	57.5	Under
2016	11/09	Akron	28	Bowling Green	38	Akron -11.5	Bowling Green	73.0	Under
2015	10/17	Bowling Green	59	Akron	10	Bowling Green -11.5	Bowling Green	62.5	Over
2014	11/04	Akron	10	Bowling Green	27	Akron -4	Bowling Green	0
2013	09/28	Bowling Green	31	Akron	14	Bowling Green -15.5	Bowling Green	0
2012	10/06	Akron	10	Bowling Green	24
2009	11/20	Bowling Green	36	Akron	20
2008	10/11	Akron	33	Bowling Green	37
2007	11/02	Bowling Green	44	Akron	20
2006	11/04	Akron	35	Bowling Green	28
2005	10/29	Bowling Green	14	Akron	24
2001	10/20	Akron	11	Bowling Green	16
2000	10/06	Bowling Green	21	Akron	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Akron	7	6	4 Overs
Bowling Green	14	7	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 13	7 - 6	5 - 5	2 - 1
Road Teams	13 - 8	6 - 7	1 - 2	5 - 5

(#73) BGSU at (#121) AKR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	AKR
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#73	#121
SP+SP+	#77	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#135
OffenseOff	#46	#132
DefenseDef	#29	#127
Spec TeamsST	#18	#124
TalentTal	#106	#76
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#62

Bowling Green Notes(11/25) Bullied Ball St. Finale vs M OH for MAC title gm
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
(8/6) Will take lumps vs Penn St/Tex A&M early
Bowling Green Injury Report

Akron Notes(11/27) Upset Toledo in finale. Outgained by 100+
(11/27) Won 3 of last 5, competitive team most of season
(11/18) Run game awful vs N Ill, 50 rush, 19/52 pass
(10/27) Run game great vs EMU in W, 220 yds, 7.1 ypc
(10/13) Finley great, Rgame awful, 4 TO's in L WMU
(10/4) Pass heavy Off is awful but Run game is worse
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Zips may be CFB #2 worst
(8/16) Ohio St, Rutgers and SC? Why?
(8/16) Off was dead last LY. Not much TY
(7/30) Def has some pieces, DB's need rebuild
(7/30) HC Moorhead has 4 wins in 2 yrs. Hot Seat?
(7/30) New QB Finley (Cal) has no proven weapons into '24
Akron Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	AKR Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#46	#127
SuccessSuc	#81	#37
ExplosiveExp	#25	#107
PPAPPA	#74	#29
PowerPwr	#56	#90
SP+SP+	#79	#117
Pts POPPO	#87	#68
HavocHav	#103	#110

Bowling Green Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	AKR Def
Run GameRun	#49	#115
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#53
Run ExplRExp	#24	#110
PPAExp	#65	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#38
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#64
TackleTak	-	#136

Bowling Green Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	AKR Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#130
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#22
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#102
PPAExp	#72	#19
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#70	#124
F7 HavocF7	#121	#77
DB HavocDB	#54	#112

Akron on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#29
SuccessSuc	#124	#63
ExplosiveExp	#122	#46
PPAPPA	#129	#44
PowerPwr	#118	#46
SP+SP+	#129	#75
Pts POPPO	#131	#62
HavocHav	#104	#41

Akron Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#112	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#119
Run ExplRExp	#110	#41
PPAExp	#97	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#39	#132
TackleTak	-	#37

Akron Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#128	#111
PPAExp	#127	#35
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#128	#39
F7 HavocF7	#72	#67
DB HavocDB	#121	#21

Program Comparison
AKR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Bowling Green 17.0 (48.5)
Bowling Green won at Akron this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Akron beat Bowling Green last year (19-16)
Bowling Green beat Akron in 2024 (27-20)
Bowling Green beat Akron in 2023 (41-14)

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak	269	402	67%	3044	18	5	7.6
Lucian Anderson III	5	12	42%	32	1	1	2.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	166	898	6	5.4	73
Jaison Patterson	99	426	5	4.3	41
Jamal Johnson	26	188	1	7.2	41
Rahkeem Smith	20	128	3	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	117	1550	10	13.2	65
Malcolm Johnson Jr. (Tr)	49	573	3	11.7	50
Rahkeem Smith	25	349	3	14.0	66
Jamal Johnson	31	229	1	7.4	36

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brock Horne	81	6	2	2	1
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
CJ Brown (Tr)	73	2	0	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Ali Saad	40	9	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Oladokun	35	1	0	7
Ja'Corey Benjamin	26	1	0	5
Todd Bumphis (Tr)	8	1	1	3

AKR's OC Taylor Housewright (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Finley (Tr)	211	387	55%	2581	16	9	6.7
Tahj Bullock	22	30	73%	200	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	110	664	2	6.0	73
Charles Kellom	85	358	1	4.2	43
Tahj Bullock	53	138	8	2.6	15
Ben Finley (Tr)	80	51	0	0.6	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Adrian Norton	43	832	7	19.3	60
Bobby Golden	31	446	1	14.4	56
Ahmarian Granger	17	308	2	18.1	72
Jacob Newell	35	254	2	7.3	29

View Akron's Full Roster

AKR's DC Tim Tibesar (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan McCoy	120	3	0	3	2
Paul Lewis III (Tr)	76	6	0	1	6
Darrian Lewis	72	3	0	0	6
Antavious Fish	67	2	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Nunnally	55	12	6	4	0
Bennett Adler	34	7	3	5	1
Kabbash Richards	9	6	2	0	0
Dimitri Madden (Tr)	4	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Devonte Nelson	33	1	0	7
Darrian Lewis	72	3	0	6
Paul Lewis III (Tr)	76	6	1	6