New Mexico State at Bowling Green - 2022 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies vs Bowling Green Falcons

Monday, December 26th 2022 (2:30 PM EST)
Bowling Green -3.0 (51.0) (-130) Open: -1.0 | 49.5
New Mexico State 24 - Bowling Green: 19 (Quick Lane Bowl)

Aggies (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ NMSU -2.5)
Projected Score: NMSU: 21 - BGSU: 26 (47)
BGSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NMSU Travel: 1469 miles, 2 hrs behind

Falcons (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Scot Loeffler (7 - 22)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
NMSU Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	New Mexico State vs Nevada	+7.0	48.0	L 12 - 23	U	N
Thu 9/1	New Mexico State at Minnesota	+36.0	52.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/10	New Mexico State at UTEP	+17.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/17	New Mexico State at Wisconsin	+38.0	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/24	New Mexico State vs Hawai'i	-4.5	53.0	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/1	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-15.0	54.0	L 7 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+7.0	38.5	W 21 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/22	New Mexico State vs San José State	+21.0	43.0
Sat 10/29	New Mexico State at Massachusetts	-1.0	39.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	New Mexico State vs Lamar	-22.0	48.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/19	New Mexico State at Missouri	+29.0	46.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/26	New Mexico State at Liberty	+24.0	51.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/3	New Mexico State vs Valparaiso	-31.5	55.0	W 65 - 3	O	Y
Mon 12/26	New Mexico State vs Bowling Green	+3.0	51.0	W 24 - 19	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Bowling Green at UCLA	+24.0	56.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/10	Bowling Green vs Eastern Kentucky	-7.5	57.0	L 57 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/17	Bowling Green vs Marshall	+17.0	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Bowling Green at Mississippi State	+31.0	53.0	L 14 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Bowling Green at Akron	-9.0	49.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/8	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	+2.0	55.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/15	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Bowling Green at Central Michigan	+5.5	51.0	W 34 - 18	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/2	Bowling Green vs Western Michigan	-5.0	48.0	W 13 - 9	U	N
Wed 11/9	Bowling Green vs Kent State	+2.5	55.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
Tue 11/15	Bowling Green at Toledo	+14.5	47.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Tue 11/22	Bowling Green at Ohio	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 38	U	N
Mon 12/26	Bowling Green vs New Mexico State	-3.0	51.0	L 19 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.12	42%	21.6	45%	3.14	101	41%	270	3.11	.4	50%	27.6	51%	50%	3.94	60.2	1.3	2
BGSU	.08	36%	20.5	37%	2.53	102	36%	215	3.6	.17	43%	24.3	48%	35%	4.2	71.1	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	20	41.9%	3.11	1.3	22	370	101	270	3.3	38%	62%	45%	41%	20%	.12
BGSU Defense	12	24.3	19.5	42.8%	4.2	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	48%	35%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	37.5	49.9%	3.94	2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	51%	50%	17%	.4
BGSU Offense	12	20.5	17	36.2%	3.6	1.4	16	317	102	215	3.3	41%	59%	37%	36%	22%	.08

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	30:31	21.9	38%	45%	6.9	60.2	1.3	2	6	1.6	0	26
Bowling Green	12	29:39	15.6	34%	33%	8	71.1	1.4	1.5	6.8	2.3	1	30.4

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	38%	45%	30.8	100.6	3.3	15	.18	3.14	78%	12%	0.91
BGSU Defense	12	60%	48%	-	-	-	-	.21	3.47	88%	12%	0.88

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	51%	51%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.53	67%	12%	1.05
BGSU Offense	12	41%	37%	30.8	102.3	3.3	15	.06	2.53	63%	14%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	62%	41%	24.7	43.2	269.7	6.3	10.9	15	10	.11	1.4	35%	28%	.2	8%	1.9
BGSU Defense	12	39%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	29%	21%	.13	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	48%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.63	1.8	27%	40%	.75	5%	2.3
BGSU Offense	12	59%	36%	19.8	33.9	214.8	6.3	10.8	12	9	.12	1.4	38%	26%	.23	8%	2.1

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #140
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2022 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #117
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0 #128
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #61

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: Bowling Green: -9.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.4 Bowling Green: -18.1

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -9.05 NR
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Bowling Green's 2022 Expected Record: -
Bowling Green's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.1 #123
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #88
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.6 #127

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 26
New Mexico State 21

Projected Total Points: 47

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2022 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	12/26	Bowling Green	19	New Mexico State	24	Bowling Green -3.0	New Mexico State	51.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	0	0	0 Overs
New Mexico State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

New Mexico State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Lane Bowl	New Mexico State vs Bowling Green	+3.0	51.0	W 24 - 19
2017	N/A	New Mexico State vs Utah State	-4.0	61.0	W 26 - 20

Bowling Green Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Lane Bowl	Bowling Green vs New Mexico State	-3.0	51.0	L 19 - 24

(#) NMSU at (#) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	BGSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#117	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#113	#91
OffenseOff	#96	#101
DefenseDef	#105	#63
Spec TeamsST	#132	#97
TalentTal	#140	#108
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico State Injury Report

Bowling Green Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	BGSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#63
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#128	#127
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#20	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#120	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#104

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#94	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#88	#61
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#97	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#49

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#79	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#99	#120
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ford Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Bowling Green -3.0 (51.0)
New Mexico State won at Bowling Green this year (24-19)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BGSU's OC Terry Malone (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Eric Lewis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD