Northern Illinois at Bowling Green - 2024 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Bowling Green -3 (46.5) (-155) Open: -3.0
Northern Illinois 17 - Bowling Green: 7 (Mid-American)

Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BGSU is playing their 4th straight game
NIU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Bowling Green -3.5 (SP+ BGSU -2)
Projected Score: NIU: 20 - BGSU: 24 (44)
BGSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
NIU Travel: 269 miles, 1 hrs behind

Falcons (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NIU Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois	-36.5	55.5	W 54 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Northern Illinois at Notre Dame	+28.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Northern Illinois vs Buffalo	-13.0	42.5	L 20 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/28	Northern Illinois at NC State	+7.0	46.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts	-14.0	41.0	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 10/12	Northern Illinois at Bowling Green	+3.0	46.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	-3.0	42.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-13.5	47.5	L 23 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Wed 11/13	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-14.0	43.5	W 29 - 16	O	N
Tue 11/19	Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)	+1.5	43.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Mon 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Bowling Green vs Fordham	-15.5	60.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Bowling Green at Penn State	+35.5	51.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Bowling Green at Texas A&M	+21.0	50.5	L 20 - 26	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Bowling Green vs Old Dominion	-11.0	51.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/5	Bowling Green at Akron	-17.0	48.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/12	Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois	-3.0	46.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/19	Bowling Green vs Kent State	-24.0	54.5	W 27 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/26	Bowling Green at Toledo	+1.5	47.5	W 41 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Bowling Green at Central Michigan	-14.5	47.5	W 23 - 13	U	N
Tue 11/12	Bowling Green vs Western Michigan	-9.5	57.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Bowling Green at Ball State	-12.5	54.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	-3.0	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Thu 12/26	Bowling Green vs Arkansas State	-10.5	54.5	L 31 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#54 (.21)	42% (62)	17.1	45% (45)	3.21 (50)	180	40% (85)	190	3.4 (102)	#36 (.14)	41% (52)	24.3	44% (84)	37% (21)	3.4 (32)	39.8	1.4	1.2
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	20.5	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24.3	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	13	17.1	16.3	42.4%	3.4	1.4	19	370	180	190	5	54%	46%	45%	40%	15%	.21
BGSU Defense	13	24.3	19.5	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	13	24.3	27.8	40.7%	3.4	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	37%	13%	.14
BGSU Offense	13	20.5	17	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	13	31:30	18.7	42%	50%	4.5	39.8	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.7	1	27.5
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	13	54% (39)	45% (45)	35.8	179.8	5	23 (46)	.21 (36)	3.21 (50)	77% (36)	9% (47)	1.08 (29)
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	13	56% (122)	44% (84)	-	-	-	-	.14 (69)	3.29 (108)	83% (118)	8% (114)	0.94 (37)
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	13	46% (95)	40% (85)	16.2	28.2	189.8	6.7	11.7	15 (96)	9 (40)	.26 (75)	1.5 (96)	32% (64)	26% (106)	.29 (83)	6% (63)	2.3 (16)
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	13	43% (12)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.17 (18)	1.4 (14)	32% (66)	24% (9)	.29 (55)	5% (115)	2.2 (109)
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
2024 Talent Rating: 258.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -2.77 Bowling Green: 0.215

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -3.5 Bowling Green: -1.8

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: 0.215 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 230.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Bowling Green 24
Northern Illinois 20

Projected Total Points: 44

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Bowling Green	7	Northern Illinois	17	Bowling Green -3	Northern Illinois	46.5	Under
2021	10/16	Northern Illinois	34	Bowling Green	26	Northern Illinois -9	Bowling Green	44.5	Over
2017	10/21	Bowling Green	17	Northern Illinois	48	Northern Illinois -14.5	Northern Illinois	56.5	Over
2016	11/01	Northern Illinois	45	Bowling Green	20	Northern Illinois -17	Northern Illinois	72.0	Under
2015	12/04	Northern Illinois	14	Bowling Green	34	Bowling Green -8	Bowling Green	69.0	Under
2014	12/05	Bowling Green	17	Northern Illinois	51	Northern Illinois -2.5	Northern Illinois	0
2013	12/06	Northern Illinois	27	Bowling Green	47	Northern Illinois -3	Bowling Green	0
2011	11/08	Bowling Green	14	Northern Illinois	45
2008	10/25	Northern Illinois	16	Bowling Green	13
2004	09/24	Northern Illinois	34	Bowling Green	17
2003	10/25	Bowling Green	34	Northern Illinois	18
2002	11/09	Northern Illinois	26	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	3	3	2 Overs
Northern Illinois	9	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	1 - 6	1 - 3	0 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 6	6 - 1	3 - 0	3 - 1

(#73) NIU at (#73) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NIU	BGSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#73	#73
SP+SP+	#84	#77
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#35
OffenseOff	#80	#46
DefenseDef	#24	#29
Spec TeamsST	#38	#18
TalentTal	#91	#106
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Northern Illinois Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Akron, QB meh, Run Def great
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them
(9/8) Outgained ND 388-286, best W of CFB, Def v good?
Northern Illinois Injury Report

Bowling Green Notes(11/25) Bullied Ball St. Finale vs M OH for MAC title gm
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
(8/6) Will take lumps vs Penn St/Tex A&M early
Bowling Green Injury Report

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BGSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#29
SuccessSuc	#62	#63
ExplosiveExp	#84	#46
PPAPPA	#54	#44
PowerPwr	#97	#46
SP+SP+	#115	#75
Pts POPPO	#102	#62
HavocHav	#50	#41

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#90	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#119
Run ExplRExp	#29	#41
PPAExp	#36	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#63	#132
TackleTak	-	#37

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#111
PPAExp	#75	#35
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#58	#39
F7 HavocF7	#47	#67
DB HavocDB	#63	#21

Bowling Green on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	NIU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#46	#24
SuccessSuc	#81	#52
ExplosiveExp	#25	#5
PPAPPA	#74	#36
PowerPwr	#56	#11
SP+SP+	#79	#32
Pts POPPO	#87	#32
HavocHav	#103	#120

Bowling Green Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#49	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#84
Run ExplRExp	#24	#37
PPAExp	#65	#69
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#125
TackleTak	-	#3

Bowling Green Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#32
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#21
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#14
PPAExp	#72	#18
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#70	#73
F7 HavocF7	#121	#114
DB HavocDB	#54	#115

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Bowling Green -3.0 (46.5)
Northern Illinois won at Bowling Green this year (17-7)

Previous Matchups
Northern Illinois beat Bowling Green in 2024 (17-7)

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Hampton	143	245	58%	1608	12	6	6.6
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Williams	139	749	4	5.4	71
Antario Brown	115	567	4	4.9	49
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	37	403	1	10.9	48
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Grayson Barnes	31	338	4	10.9	60
Andrew McElroy (Tr)	26	264	0	10.2	42

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)	61	4	0	1	1
Jaden Dolphin	61	3	0	0	2
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte O'Malley	38	12	9	4	1
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak	269	402	67%	3044	18	5	7.6
Lucian Anderson III	5	12	42%	32	1	1	2.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	166	898	6	5.4	73
Jaison Patterson	99	426	5	4.3	41
Jamal Johnson	26	188	1	7.2	41
Rahkeem Smith	20	128	3	6.4	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	117	1550	10	13.2	65
Malcolm Johnson Jr. (Tr)	49	573	3	11.7	50
Rahkeem Smith	25	349	3	14.0	66
Jamal Johnson	31	229	1	7.4	36

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Sammy Lawanson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brock Horne	81	6	2	2	1
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
CJ Brown (Tr)	73	2	0	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Sipp Jr.	79	12	7	1	2
Charles Rosser	62	8	5	4	0
Anthony Hawkins	46	8	5	2	3
Ali Saad	40	9	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Oladokun	35	1	0	7
Ja'Corey Benjamin	26	1	0	5
Todd Bumphis (Tr)	8	1	1	3