Bowling Green at Penn State Game Matchup
Bowling Green logo Bowling Green Falcons at Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State logo
Saturday, September 7th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -35.5 (51.5) (-20000)  Open: -34.5 | 48.5
Penn State 34 - Bowling Green: 27

 
Falcons (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 14.9 MPH
Our Line: Penn State -29   (SP+ PSU -26)

Projected Score: BGSU: 10 - PSU: 39 (49)
PSU Win prob: 98% | Cover: 46%
BGSU Travel: 303 miles
Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Bowling Green vs Fordham-15.560.5W 41 - 17UY
Sat 9/7 Bowling Green at Penn State+35.551.5L 27 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Bowling Green at Texas A&M+21.050.5L 20 - 26UY
Sat 9/28 Bowling Green vs Old Dominion-11.051.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 10/5 Bowling Green at Akron-17.048.5W 27 - 20UN
Sat 10/12 Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois-3.046.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 10/19 Bowling Green vs Kent State-24.054.5W 27 - 6UN
Sat 10/26 Bowling Green at Toledo+1.547.5W 41 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Bowling Green at Central Michigan-14.547.5W 23 - 13UN
Tue 11/12 Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-9.557.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 11/23 Bowling Green at Ball State-12.554.5W 38 - 13UY
Fri 11/29 Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)-3.037.5L 12 - 28ON
Thu 12/26 Bowling Green vs Arkansas State-10.554.5L 31 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia-7.548.0W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/7 Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.551.5W 34 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Penn State vs Kent State-49.058.0W 56 - 0UY
Sat 9/28 Penn State vs Illinois-19.548.0W 21 - 7UN
Sat 10/5 Penn State vs UCLA-30.048.0W 27 - 11UN
Sat 10/12 Penn State at USC-3.551.5W 33 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Penn State at Wisconsin-6.547.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 11/2 Penn State vs Ohio State+3.047.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 11/9 Penn State vs Washington-13.548.0W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/16 Penn State at Purdue-30.051.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 11/23 Penn State at Minnesota-11.045.0W 26 - 25ON
Sat 11/30 Penn State vs Maryland-26.550.5W 44 - 7OY
Sat 12/7 Penn State vs Oregon+3.551.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 12/21 Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14UY
Thu 1/9 Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU#74 (.18)41% (81)27.145% (46)3.06 (81)13739% (98)1893.65 (87)#44 (.15)42% (63)21.648% (119)36% (11)3.71 (62)60.91.52.2
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)33.149% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)16.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Offense1327.129.341.2%3.651.5173261371894.248%50%45%39%18%.18
PSU Defense1316.51133.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Defense1321.62241.6%3.712.2 - - - - - 54%44%48%36%17%.15
PSU Offense1333.133.546.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Bowling Green1330:3016.833%60%6.960.91.52.24.92.5333.8
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense1348% (82)45% (46)33137.44.222 (51).16 (65)3.06 (81)80% (18)13% (121)1.09 (24)
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense1354% (112)48% (119) - - - - .22 (108)3.28 (105)80% (110)10% (67)0.95 (41)
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense1350% (60)39% (98)16.527.5188.86.911.517 (85)14 (107).27 (72)1.7 (35)36% (127)31% (67).29 (82)6% (54)2 (82)
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense1344% (17)36% (11) - - - - - - 17 (3).21 (35)1.7 (111)33% (46)28% (38).32 (71)7% (21)2.1 (72)
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 478.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -2.77   Penn State: 26.93

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -1.8   Penn State: 24.6




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 26.93 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 936.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.3
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 39
Bowling Green 10


Projected Total Points: 49
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.5
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 11

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Penn State34Bowling Green27Penn StatePenn State -35.5Bowling Green51.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State101 Overs
Bowling Green010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#73) Bowling Green Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75
Talent Rating: 478.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 37%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Bowling Green Notes
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
Bowling Green     Ratings Matchup     Penn State
Power #73
#6
Off #56
#2
Def #46
#7
Talent #106
#11
SP+ #77
#5
SP+ Off #79
#9
SP+ Def #75
#4

Rematch from Week 2
Penn State -35.5 (51.5)
Penn State won vs Bowling Green this year (34-27)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Bowling Green last year (34-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 67° - Wind: 15 mph


Team Information
Injuries: BGSU | PSU
Depth Chart: BGSU | PSU
Rosters: BGSU | PSU
(#6) Penn State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 26.93 #6
Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4
Talent Rating: 936.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #15
Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.69 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.22 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position



  
Bowling Green's OC Greg Nosal
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Lucian Anderson III51242%32112.7
Baron May11100%431043.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terion Stewart16689865.473
Rahkeem Smith2012836.440
Lucian Anderson III196723.519
Justin Pegues (Tr)135103.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malcolm Johnson Jr. (Tr)49573311.750
Rahkeem Smith25349314.066
Finn Hogan17175010.333
Justin Pegues (Tr)114404.07

View Bowling Green's Full Roster
Bowling Green's DC Sammy Lawanson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Sipp Jr.7912712
CJ Brown (Tr)732012
Tracy Revels400021
Darius McClendon (Tr)312200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Sipp Jr.7912712
Darius McClendon (Tr)312200
Myles Bradley223220
Todd Bumphis (Tr)81103
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ja'Corey Benjamin261005
Todd Bumphis (Tr)81103
Joseph Sipp Jr.7912712

Penn State's OC Andy Kotelnicki
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Beau Pribula263574%275517.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Beau Pribula3824246.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III47732415.650
Omari Evans20403520.259
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127
Liam Clifford18286115.957

View Penn State's Full Roster
Penn State's DC Tom Allen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zakee Wheatley863104
Tony Rojas567254
Zane Durant4210341
A.J. Harris (Tr)413005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Zane Durant4210341
Tony Rojas567254
Jordan Mayer (Tr)22200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
A.J. Harris (Tr)413005
Cam Miller233025