USC at California - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
USC -10.5 (67.5) (-410) Open: -10.5 | 67.0
USC 50 - California: 49 (Pac-12)

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 42 - 34 (37 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CAL coming off BYE
USC is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: USC -7 (SP+ USC -7)
Projected Score: USC: 38 - CAL: 31 (69)
USC Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
USC Travel: 347 miles

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 30 - 33 (33 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
CAL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

California's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	California at North Texas	-5.0	53.5	W 58 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/9	California vs Auburn	+5.0	55.5	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	California vs Idaho	-14.5	52.5	W 31 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	California at Washington	+21.0	55.5	L 32 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/30	California vs Arizona State	-13.0	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/7	California vs Oregon State	+7.5	51.0	L 40 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/14	California at Utah	+9.0	42.5	L 14 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	California vs USC	+10.5	67.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Sat 11/4	California at Oregon	+26.5	61.5	L 19 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/11	California vs Washington State	-1.5	58.5	W 42 - 39	O	Y
Sat 11/18	California at Stanford	-6.5	52.5	W 27 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	California at UCLA	+9.5	50.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/16	California vs Texas Tech	+3.5	54.5	L 14 - 34	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#6 (.39)	47% (15)	41.8	48% (20)	3.19 (52)	134	47% (21)	333	4.99 (4)	#122 (.29)	46% (121)	34.4	49% (125)	43% (91)	3.55 (49)	64.9	1.3	1.2
CAL	#61 (.21)	41% (88)	30.2	44% (59)	3.39 (13)	173	38% (103)	218	4.12 (46)	#87 (.21)	45% (112)	32.8	47% (103)	44% (108)	4.4 (118)	44.8	2.2	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)		40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)		41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	41.8	37.4	47.5%	4.99	1.3	22	467	134	333	4.8	41%	59%	48%	47%	14%	.39
CAL Defense	13	32.8	32.2	45%	4.4	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	47%	44%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	34.4	40.4	45.8%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	43%	14%	.29
CAL Offense	13	30.2	32.7	40.5%	4.12	2.2	21	391	173	218	4.5	50%	49%	44%	38%	18%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	27:33	22.5	43%	61%	7.3	64.9	1.3	1.2	5.5	1.9	3	30.3
California	13	28:40	21.4	39%	52%	5.5	44.8	2.2	2.2	4.5	1.9	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	41% (123)	48% (20)	27.8	133.6	4.8	33 (8)	.29 (8)	3.19 (52)	78% (28)	10% (65)	1.2 (2)
CAL Defense	13	47% (32)	47% (103)	-	-	-	-	.14 (67)	3.1 (67)	73% (66)	9% (98)	0.98 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	51% (83)	49% (125)	-	-	-	-	.29 (128)	3.31 (110)	73% (64)	10% (64)	1.07 (100)
CAL Offense	13	50% (68)	44% (59)	38.2	173.1	4.5	26 (30)	.24 (23)	3.39 (13)	75% (60)	11% (86)	1.11 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	59% (10)	47% (21)	24.2	35.5	333	9.4	13.8	37 (4)	6 (14)	.47 (14)	1.7 (20)	29% (22)	37% (14)	.65 (4)	4% (15)	2.3 (12)
CAL Defense	13	52% (103)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.3 (88)	1.5 (34)	27% (129)	35% (121)	.36 (91)	7% (40)	1.8 (10)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	49% (60)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.32 (98)	1.7 (90)	31% (87)	34% (115)	.4 (108)	4% (129)	2.1 (92)
CAL Offense	13	49% (64)	38% (103)	19.8	33.4	218.2	6.5	11	22 (61)	16 (121)	.21 (92)	1.6 (49)	33% (84)	27% (96)	.33 (70)	7% (97)	2 (67)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81 California: 2.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9 California: 1.1

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 2.1 #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66 #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83 #101
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

USC Scoring
Offense: 41.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.4
Defense: 34.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.4

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 38
California 31

Total Points: 69

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 37
California 36

Total Points: 73

Based on Entire Season
USC 36
California 34

Total Points: 70

California Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.7
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	California	49	USC	50	USC -10.5	California	67.5	Over
2022	11/05	USC	41	California	35	USC -21.5	California	60.5	Over
2021	12/04	California	24	USC	14	California -4.5	California	57.5	Under
2019	11/16	California	17	USC	41	USC -4.5	USC	47.5	Over
2018	11/10	USC	14	California	15	USC -5.5	California	45.5	Under
2017	09/23	California	20	USC	30	USC -17	California	63.0	Under
2016	10/27	USC	45	California	24	USC -14.5	USC	73.0	Under
2015	10/31	California	21	USC	27	USC -4	USC	69.0	Under
2014	11/13	USC	38	California	30	USC -12	California	0
2013	11/09	California	28	USC	62	USC -17	USC	0
2012	09/22	USC	27	California	9
2011	10/13	California	9	USC	30
2010	10/16	USC	48	California	14
2009	10/03	California	3	USC	30
2008	11/08	USC	17	California	3
2007	11/10	California	17	USC	24
2006	11/18	USC	23	California	9
2005	11/12	California	10	USC	35
2004	10/09	USC	23	California	17
2003	09/27	California	34	USC	31
2002	10/12	USC	30	California	28
2001	11/10	California	14	USC	55
2000	10/27	USC	16	California	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
California	4	6	3 Overs
USC	19	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 12	4 - 6	2 - 3	2 - 3
Road Teams	12 - 11	6 - 4	3 - 2	3 - 2

(#23) USC at (#75) CAL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	CAL
Power RatePwr	#23	#75
SP+SP+	#38	#61
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#93
OffenseOff	#16	#72
DefenseDef	#80	#99
Spec TeamsST	#86	#125
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#14	#43

USC Injury Report

California Injury Report

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	CAL Def
Perf GradePerf	#16	#99
SuccessSuc	#15	#112
ExplosiveExp	#2	#47
PPAPPA	#6	#87
PowerPwr	#7	#101
SP+SP+	#3	#85
Pts POPPO	#4	#118
HavocHav	#31	#75

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#10	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	#20	#103
Run ExplRExp	#2	#55
PPAExp	#8	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#88	#93
TackleTak	-	#120

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#88
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#34
PPAExp	#14	#88
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#37
F7 HavocF7	#65	#98
DB HavocDB	#15	#40

California on Offense


CategoryCat	CAL Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#72	#80
SuccessSuc	#88	#121
ExplosiveExp	#34	#96
PPAPPA	#61	#122
PowerPwr	#75	#119
SP+SP+	#32	#109
Pts POPPO	#46	#49
HavocHav	#93	#116

California Run Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#31	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#59	#125
Run ExplRExp	#20	#100
PPAExp	#23	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#110
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#79
TackleTak	-	#77

California Pass Game


CategoryCat	CAL Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#90
PPAExp	#92	#98
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#112	#26
F7 HavocF7	#86	#64
DB HavocDB	#97	#129

Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 9
USC 10.5 (67.5)
USC won at California this year (50-49)

Previous Matchups
USC beat California in 2023 (50-49)
USC beat California in 2022 (41-35)

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3

CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	153	243	63%	1708	14	10	7.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)	51	97	53%	553	5	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadyn Ott	245	1310	12	5.3	66
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)	70	365	7	5.2	26
Ashton Stredick	42	200	2	4.8	41
Jaivian Thomas	18	110	1	6.1	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Hunter	63	709	7	11.3	50
Trond Grizzell	39	590	5	15.1	54
Jack Endries	35	408	2	11.7	32
Taj Davis (Tr)	38	393	3	10.3	27

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Craig Woodson	80	4	1	0	4
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Reese (Tr)	33	9	8	4	3
Xavier Carlton	50	6	5	5	2
Cade Uluave	67	7	2	0	3
Nathan Burrell	23	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)	88	6	1	1	7
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	87	3	1	6	6
Lu-Magia Hearns III	27	0	0	0	6