USC at California - 2023 Matchup Preview
USC logo   USC Trojans at California Golden Bears  California logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
USC -10.5 (67.5) (-410)  Open: -10.5 | 67.0
USC 50 - California: 49  (Pac-12)

 
Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
CAL coming off BYE
USC is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: USC -7  (SP+ USC -7)
Projected Score: USC: 34 - CAL: 27 (61)
USC Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
USC Travel: 347 miles
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
USC's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 USC vs San José State-31.566.0W 56 - 28ON
Sat 9/2 USC vs Nevada-37.563.5W 66 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 USC vs Stanford-28.570.5W 56 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 USC at Arizona State-34.562.0W 42 - 28ON
Sat 9/30 USC at Colorado-22.074.5W 48 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 USC vs Arizona-21.069.5W 43 - 41ON
Sat 10/14 USC at Notre Dame+3.061.0L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/21 USC vs Utah-7.551.5L 32 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 USC at California-10.567.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 11/4 USC vs Washington+3.076.0L 42 - 52ON
Sat 11/11 USC at Oregon+12.578.5L 27 - 36UY
Sat 11/18 USC vs UCLA-6.065.5L 20 - 38UN
Wed 12/27 USC vs Louisville+4.558.0W 42 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 California at North Texas-5.053.5W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 California vs Auburn+5.055.5L 10 - 14UY
Sat 9/16 California vs Idaho-14.552.5W 31 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 California at Washington+21.055.5L 32 - 59ON
Sat 9/30 California vs Arizona State-13.047.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/7 California vs Oregon State+7.551.0L 40 - 52ON
Sat 10/14 California at Utah+9.042.5L 14 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 California vs USC+10.567.5L 49 - 50OY
Sat 11/4 California at Oregon+26.561.5L 19 - 63ON
Sat 11/11 California vs Washington State-1.558.5W 42 - 39OY
Sat 11/18 California at Stanford-6.552.5W 27 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 California at UCLA+9.550.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 12/16 California vs Texas Tech+3.554.5L 14 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC.451%35.853%3.5217150%3354.68.2948%2353%46%4.54580.52.1
CAL.1939%25.340%2.939738%2683.81.250%27.251%49%3.9544.612
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1435.827.451.3%4.680.5265061713355.144%56%53%50%11%.4
CAL Defense1227.224.349.7%3.952 - - - - - 47%53%51%49%13%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense142328.848.4%4.542.1 - - - - - 44%55%53%46%17%.29
CAL Offense1225.327.238.6%3.81119365972683.637%62%40%38%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1431:5425.754%68%6.3580.52.15.52.9328.2
California1228:4319.335%55%5.344.6124.41.3125.8
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1444%53%33.8171.15.130.33.5283%7%0.97
CAL Defense1247%51% - - - - .123.4277%8%0.77
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1444%53% - - - - .363.4578%10%1.14
CAL Offense1237%40%26.596.53.610.122.9363%11%1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1456%50%24.636.7335.39.113.7435.481.628%36%.494%2.2
CAL Defense1253%49% - - - - - - 11.321.428%28%.255%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1455%46% - - - - - - 19.271.529%36%.427%2
CAL Offense1262%38%24.338.8268.16.911.1239.271.636%29%.376%2.2

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81  #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88  #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89  #119
2023 Talent Rating: 896.41  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54%  #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9  #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6  #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81   California: 2.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9   California: 1.1




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 2.1  #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66  #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83  #101
2023 Talent Rating: 681.14  #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
USC 34
California 27

Projected Total Points: 61
California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28California49USC50USC -10.5California67.5Over
202211/05USC41California35USC -21.5California60.5Over
202112/04California24USC14California -4.5California57.5Under
201911/16California17USC41USC -4.5USC47.5Over
201811/10USC14California15USC -5.5California45.5Under
201709/23California20USC30USC -17California63.0Under
201610/27USC45California24USC -14.5USC73.0Under
201510/31California21USC27USC -4USC69.0Under
201411/13USC38California30USC -12California0
201311/09California28USC62USC -17USC0
201209/22USC27California9
201110/13California9USC30
201010/16USC48California14
200910/03California3USC30
200811/08USC17California3
200711/10California17USC24
200611/18USC23California9
200511/12California10USC35
200410/09USC23California17
200309/27California34USC31
200210/12USC30California28
200111/10California14USC55
200010/27USC16California28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California463 Overs
USC1945 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 124 - 62 - 32 - 3
Road Teams12 - 116 - 43 - 23 - 2

(#23) USC at (#75) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSCCAL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #23 #75
SP+SP+ #38 #61
Perf GradeGrade #29 #93
OffenseOff #16 #72
DefenseDef #80 #99
Spec TeamsST #86 #125
TalentTal #8 #45
Blue ChipsBC% #14 #43
USC on Offense
CategoryCat
USC OffCAL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #16 #99
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #7 #101
SP+SP+ #3 #85
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
USC Run Game
CategoryCat
USC OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #10 #121
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #120
USC Pass Game
CategoryCat
USC OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #9 #88
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #20 #37
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
California on Offense
CategoryCatCAL OffUSC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #80
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #75 #119
SP+SP+ #32 #109
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
California Run Game
CategoryCat
CAL OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #31 #84
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #77
California Pass Game
CategoryCatCAL OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #77 #90
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #112 #26
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
USC 10.5 (67.5)
USC won at California this year (50-49)

Previous Matchups
USC beat California in 2023 (50-49)

  
USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caleb Williams26638869%36333059.4
Miller Moss466571%6817110.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)11682097.156
Austin Jones8547775.637
Quinten Joyner1812516.947
Caleb Williams99115111.246
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tahj Washington591062818.076
Brenden Rice457911217.675
Duce Robinson16351221.971
Zachariah Branch31320210.336

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Cobb (Tr)857001
Jaylin Smith695111
Calen Bullock580005
Bryson Shaw523100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)4610641
Solomon Byrd448521
Romello Height185410
Braylan Shelby174200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)343009
Calen Bullock580005
Eric Gentry433103

CAL's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza15324363%170814107.0
Sam Jackson (Tr)519753%553525.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadyn Ott2451310125.366
Isaiah Ifanse (Tr)7036575.226
Ashton Stredick4220024.841
Jaivian Thomas1811016.127
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Hunter63709711.350
Trond Grizzell39590515.154
Jack Endries35408211.732
Taj Davis (Tr)38393310.327

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)886117
Kaleb Elarms-Orr873166
Craig Woodson804104
Cade Uluave677203
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Reese (Tr)339843
Xavier Carlton506552
Cade Uluave677203
Nathan Burrell233211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick McMorris (Tr)886117
Kaleb Elarms-Orr873166
Lu-Magia Hearns III270006