USC at California - 2023 Matchup Preview
USC logo USC Trojans at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
USC -10.5 (67.5) (-410)  Open: -10.5 | 67.0
USC 50 - California: 49  (Pac-12)

 
Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (22 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
CAL coming off BYE
USC is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: USC -7   (SP+ USC -7)
Projected Score: USC: 33 - CAL: 26 (51)
USC Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
USC Travel: 347 miles
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (32 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 7.7 (#92)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
USC's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 USC vs San José State-31.566.0W 56 - 28ON
Sat 9/2 USC vs Nevada-37.563.5W 66 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 USC vs Stanford-28.570.5W 56 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 USC at Arizona State-34.562.0W 42 - 28ON
Sat 9/30 USC at Colorado-22.074.5W 48 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 USC vs Arizona-21.069.5W 43 - 41ON
Sat 10/14 USC at Notre Dame+3.061.0L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/21 USC vs Utah-7.551.5L 32 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 USC at California-10.567.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 11/4 USC vs Washington+3.076.0L 42 - 52ON
Sat 11/11 USC at Oregon+12.578.5L 27 - 36UY
Sat 11/18 USC vs UCLA-6.065.5L 20 - 38UN
Wed 12/27 USC vs Louisville+4.558.0W 42 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 California at North Texas-5.053.5W 58 - 21OY
Sat 9/9 California vs Auburn+5.055.5L 10 - 14UY
Sat 9/16 California vs Idaho-14.552.5W 31 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 California at Washington+21.055.5L 32 - 59ON
Sat 9/30 California vs Arizona State-13.047.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/7 California vs Oregon State+7.551.0L 40 - 52ON
Sat 10/14 California at Utah+9.042.5L 14 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 California vs USC+10.567.5L 49 - 50OY
Sat 11/4 California at Oregon+26.561.5L 19 - 63ON
Sat 11/11 California vs Washington State-1.558.5W 42 - 39OY
Sat 11/18 California at Stanford-6.552.5W 27 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 California at UCLA+9.550.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 12/16 California vs Texas Tech+3.554.5L 14 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC.451%30.253%3.5217150%3354.68.2948%24.153%46%4.54580.52.1
CAL.1939%25.140%2.939738%2683.81.250%22.351%49%3.9544.612
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1430.221.851.3%4.680.5265061713355.144%56%53%50%11%.4
CAL Defense1222.32149.7%3.952 - - - - - 47%53%51%49%13%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense1424.123.848.4%4.542.1 - - - - - 44%55%53%46%17%.29
CAL Offense1225.130.938.6%3.81119365972683.637%62%40%38%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1431:5425.754%68%6.3580.52.15.52.9328.2
California1228:4319.335%55%5.344.6124.41.3125.8
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1444%53%33.8171.15.130.33.5283%7%0.97
CAL Defense1247%51% - - - - .123.4277%8%0.77
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1444%53% - - - - .363.4578%10%1.14
CAL Offense1237%40%26.596.53.610.122.9363%11%1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1456%50%24.636.7335.39.113.7435.481.628%36%.494%2.2
CAL Defense1253%49% - - - - - - 11.321.428%28%.255%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1455%46% - - - - - - 19.271.529%36%.427%2
CAL Offense1262%38%24.338.8268.16.911.1239.271.636%29%.376%2.2

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 780.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81   California: 2.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9   California: 1.1




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 2.1 #75
California's Offense Rating: 15.66 #75
California's Defense Rating: 12.83 #101
2023 Talent Rating: 662.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
California's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70
California's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #61
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #85

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
USC 33
California 26

Projected Total Points: 51
California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28California49USC50USCUSC -10.5California67.5Over
202211/05USC41California35USCUSC -21.5California60.5Over
202112/04California24USC14CaliforniaCalifornia -4.5California57.5Under
201911/16California17USC41USCUSC -4.5USC47.5Over
201811/10USC14California15CaliforniaUSC -5.5California45.5Under
201709/23California20USC30USCUSC -17California63.0Under
201610/27USC45California24USCUSC -14.5USC73.0Under
201510/31California21USC27USCUSC -4USC69.0Under
201411/13USC38California30USCUSC -12California0
201311/09California28USC62USCUSC -17USC0
201209/22USC27California9USC
201110/13California9USC30USC
201010/16USC48California14USC
200910/03California3USC30USC
200811/08USC17California3USC
200711/10California17USC24USC
200611/18USC23California9USC
200511/12California10USC35USC
200410/09USC23California17USC
200309/27California34USC31California
200210/12USC30California28USC
200111/10California14USC55USC
200010/27USC16California28California
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California463 Overs
USC1945 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 124 - 62 - 32 - 3
Road Teams12 - 116 - 43 - 23 - 2

(#23) USC Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.81 #23
Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109
Talent Rating: 780.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90

Team Profile






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USC     Ratings Matchup     California
Power #23
#75
Off #7
#75
Def #119
#101
Talent #33
#61
SP+ #38
#61
SP+ Off #3
#32
SP+ Def #109
#85

Rematch from Week 9
USC 10.5 (67.5)
USC won at California this year (50-49)

Previous Matchups
USC beat California in 2023 (50-49)
USC beat California in 2022 (41-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61° - Wind: 9 mph


Team Information
Injuries: USC | CAL
Depth Chart: USC | CAL
Rosters: USC | CAL
(#75) California Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.1 #75
Offense Rating: 15.66 #75
Defense Rating: 12.83 #101
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #85
Talent Rating: 662.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Expected Record: 5.30 - 7.70

Team Profile






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USC's OC Josh Henson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Malachi Nelson121771%128017.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darwin Barlow96206.914
Raleek Brown94204.714
Mario Williams21206.013
Malachi Nelson2-110-5.50
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mario Williams48831417.368
Dorian Singer (Tr)53702113.240
Jude Wolfe1816128.932
Darwin Barlow331010.317

View USC's Full Roster
USC's DC Alex Grinch
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Cobb (Tr)723003
Jaylin Smith584002
Domani Jackson512017
Chris Thompson Jr.445110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Romello Height347340
Korey Foreman235241
Stanley Ta'ufo'ou304200
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)272130
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Domani Jackson512017
Ceyair Wright391116
DeCarlos Nicholson270005

California's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Finley (Tr)21138755%25811696.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ben Finley (Tr)805100.633
Marquez Dortch (Tr)330010.015
Jeremiah Hunter1404.04
Sam Jackson (Tr)2000.00
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Hunter36490113.642
Mason Starling9121013.419
Sam Jackson (Tr)263131.537
Ben Finley (Tr)21507.510

View California's Full Roster
California's DC Peter Sirmon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Craig Woodson703017
Kaleb Elarms-Orr545220
Nohl Williams (Tr)511018
Miles Williams513011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Carlton4711981
Moso'oipala Tuitele356420
Kaleb Elarms-Orr545220
Myles Jernigan121121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaylin Moore (Tr)372019
Nohl Williams (Tr)511018
Craig Woodson703017