Virginia at Louisville Game Matchup

Virginia Cavaliers at Louisville Cardinals

Thursday, November 9th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Louisville -20.5 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 31 - Virginia: 24 (ACC)

Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LOU 3rd straight Home Game
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -21 (SP+ LOU -21)
Projected Score: UVA: 17 - LOU: 38 (56)
LOU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
UVA Travel: 394 miles

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (42 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia vs Tennessee	+27.5	56.0	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/9	Virginia vs James Madison	+6.0	40.0	L 35 - 36	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Virginia at Maryland	+16.5	48.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/22	Virginia vs NC State	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Virginia at Boston College	+5.0	52.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia vs William & Mary	-10.0	42.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Virginia at North Carolina	+24.0	58.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Virginia at Miami	+18.5	48.0	L 26 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-2.0	57.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Thu 11/9	Virginia at Louisville	+20.5	49.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia vs Duke	+4.0	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	52.5	L 17 - 55	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	.08	40%	22.7	44%	3.2	123	37%	221	2.81	.13	41%	28.8	40%	41%	3.54	62.2	2.2	1.7
LOU	.19	41%	36.5	43%	3.18	201	41%	206	3.74	.07	40%	24.1	43%	38%	2.85	66	1.8	2.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	10	22.7	26.7	39.7%	2.81	2.2	19	344	123	221	3.7	45%	54%	44%	37%	22%	.08
LOU Defense	13	24.1	21.3	40.3%	2.85	2.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	43%	38%	20%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	10	28.8	32.2	40.8%	3.54	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	41%	15%	.13
LOU Offense	13	36.5	41.8	41.3%	3.74	1.8	20	407	201	206	5	55%	44%	43%	41%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	10	27:30	19	32%	39%	7	62.2	2.2	1.7	5.1	3	0	28.2
Louisville	13	29:54	20.3	38%	40%	6.9	66	1.8	2.6	7.2	3.7	3	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	10	45%	44%	32.9	123	3.7	13	.17	3.2	72%	12%	1.01
LOU Defense	13	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.97	60%	14%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	10	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.26	67%	9%	0.87
LOU Offense	13	55%	43%	39.9	201	5	25	.21	3.18	69%	10%	1.13

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	10	54%	37%	18.5	34.2	221	6.5	12	7	12	.04	1.5	36%	33%	.42	10%	2
LOU Defense	13	48%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.16	1.6	33%	26%	.14	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	10	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.19	1.4	30%	29%	.31	6%	2
LOU Offense	13	44%	41%	16.8	28.3	205.5	7.3	12.3	13	12	.22	1.6	34%	31%	.37	5%	2.1

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 668.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.47 Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -10.3 Louisville: 10.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 706.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 38
Virginia 17

Projected Total Points: 56

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Virginia	20	Louisville	24	Louisville	Louisville -7	Virginia	54.0	Under
2023	11/09	Louisville	31	Virginia	24	Louisville	Louisville -20.5	Virginia	49.5	Over
2022	10/08	Virginia	17	Louisville	34	Louisville	Virginia -1.5	Louisville	47.5	Over
2021	10/09	Louisville	33	Virginia	34	Virginia	Louisville -2.5	Virginia	69.5	Under
2020	11/14	Virginia	31	Louisville	17	Virginia	Virginia -5.5	Virginia	64.5	Under
2019	10/26	Louisville	28	Virginia	21	Louisville	Virginia -4.5	Louisville	51.0	Under
2018	09/22	Virginia	27	Louisville	3	Virginia	Virginia -4.5	Virginia	51.5	Under
2017	11/11	Louisville	38	Virginia	21	Louisville	Louisville -14	Louisville	66.5	Under
2016	10/29	Virginia	25	Louisville	32	Louisville	Louisville -27	Virginia	69.5	Under
2015	11/14	Louisville	38	Virginia	31	Louisville	Louisville -8.5	Virginia	48.0	Over
2014	09/13	Virginia	23	Louisville	21	Virginia	Louisville -10	Virginia	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	7	3	3 Overs
Virginia	4	8	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	7 - 4	3 - 4	4 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 7	4 - 7	0 - 4	4 - 3

(#93) Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99
Talent Rating: 668.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30

Team Profile

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Virginia Ratings Matchup Louisville

Power #93

#21

Off #84

#44

Def #114

#16

Talent #60

#46

SP+ #106

#24

SP+ Off #95

#40

SP+ Def #99

#26

Rematch from Week 11
Louisville -20.5 (49.5)
Louisville won vs Virginia this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Virginia last year (24-20)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2023 (31-24)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2022 (34-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 59° - Wind: 10 mph

Team Information
Injuries: UVA | LOU
Depth Chart: UVA | LOU
Rosters: UVA | LOU

(#21) Louisville Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 706.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50

Team Profile

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Virginia's OC Des Kitchings

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tony Muskett (Tr)	45	76	59%	545	3	3	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace (Tr)	114	499	3	4.4	43
Tony Muskett (Tr)	27	98	4	3.6	18
Donte Hawthorne	1	12	0	12.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace (Tr)	21	189	0	9.0	52
Demick Starling	3	56	0	18.7	27
Sackett Wood Jr.	3	18	1	6.0	8
Donte Hawthorne	1	2	0	2.0	2

View Virginia's Full Roster

Virginia's DC John Rudzinski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Antonio Clary	48	3	1	1	3
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Chico Bennett Jr.	39	8	1	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Antonio Clary	48	3	1	1	3
Chico Bennett Jr.	39	8	1	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Antonio Clary	48	3	1	1	3
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2

Louisville's OC Brian Brohm

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duane Martin	3	16	1	5.3	14
Kevin Coleman Jr.	4	11	0	2.8	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	17	230	0	13.5	58
William Fowles	2	29	0	14.5	19
Duane Martin	2	17	0	8.5	11

View Louisville's Full Roster

Louisville's DC Ron English

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
M.J. Griffin	63	2	1	0	2
Ryheem Craig	49	6	2	1	0
Josh Minkins	45	2	0	0	4
Ashton Gillotte	43	10	5	10	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ashton Gillotte	43	10	5	10
Ramon Puryear	34	4	3	6
Ryheem Craig	49	6	2	1
Kameron Wilson	10	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Quincy Riley	33	3	0	9
Josh Minkins	45	2	0	4
M.J. Griffin	63	2	1	2