Virginia at Louisville - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#14)Virginia Cavaliers at Louisville Cardinals(#15)

Thursday, November 9th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Louisville -20.5 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 31 - Virginia: 24 (ACC)

Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (24 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LOU 3rd straight Home Game
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -21 (SP+ LOU -21)
Projected Score: UVA: 15 - LOU: 36 (50)
LOU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
UVA Travel: 394 miles

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (38 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia vs Tennessee	+27.5	56.0	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/9	Virginia vs James Madison	+6.0	40.0	L 35 - 36	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Virginia at Maryland	+16.5	48.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/22	Virginia vs NC State	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Virginia at Boston College	+5.0	52.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia vs William & Mary	-10.0	42.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Virginia at North Carolina	+24.0	58.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Virginia at Miami	+18.5	48.0	L 26 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-2.0	57.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Thu 11/9	Virginia at Louisville	+20.5	49.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia vs Duke	+4.0	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	52.5	L 17 - 55	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	#88 (.15)	41% (84)	23.3	42% (82)	3 (89)	118	41% (76)	251	3.68 (85)	#117 (.26)	45% (113)	33.8	48% (118)	43% (90)	4.15 (103)	55.3	1.7	1.2
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	30.7	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.3	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)		43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)		44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	12	23.3	23.8	41%	3.68	1.7	21	369	118	251	3.1	49%	50%	42%	41%	19%	.15
LOU Defense	14	21.3	16.1	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	12	33.8	31.2	45.2%	4.15	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	43%	15%	.26
LOU Offense	14	30.7	37.7	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	12	31:24	21	36%	60%	6.5	55.3	1.7	1.2	4.8	0.9	1	28.1
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	12	49% (76)	42% (82)	37.8	117.9	3.1	12 (116)	.11 (91)	3 (89)	70% (98)	13% (123)	0.89 (113)
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	12	51% (87)	48% (118)	-	-	-	-	.26 (124)	3.36 (116)	76% (92)	9% (108)	1.03 (84)
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	12	50% (62)	41% (76)	20.7	33	250.8	7.6	12.1	19 (78)	14 (107)	.29 (67)	1.6 (66)	32% (83)	29% (79)	.21 (105)	6% (79)	1.8 (126)
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	12	48% (48)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.32 (97)	1.6 (54)	28% (127)	30% (62)	.33 (76)	6% (57)	2.1 (85)
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.47 Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -10.3 Louisville: 10.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 36
Virginia 15

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 29
Virginia 19

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 33
Virginia 21

Total Points: 54

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.7
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Louisville	27	Virginia	30	Louisville -6.5	Virginia	59.5	Under
2024	10/12	Virginia	20	Louisville	24	Louisville -7	Virginia	54.0	Under
2023	11/09	Louisville	31	Virginia	24	Louisville -20.5	Virginia	49.5	Over
2022	10/08	Virginia	17	Louisville	34	Virginia -1.5	Louisville	47.5	Over
2021	10/09	Louisville	33	Virginia	34	Louisville -2.5	Virginia	69.5	Under
2020	11/14	Virginia	31	Louisville	17	Virginia -5.5	Virginia	64.5	Under
2019	10/26	Louisville	28	Virginia	21	Virginia -4.5	Louisville	51.0	Under
2018	09/22	Virginia	27	Louisville	3	Virginia -4.5	Virginia	51.5	Under
2017	11/11	Louisville	38	Virginia	21	Louisville -14	Louisville	66.5	Under
2016	10/29	Virginia	25	Louisville	32	Louisville -27	Virginia	69.5	Under
2015	11/14	Louisville	38	Virginia	31	Louisville -8.5	Virginia	48.0	Over
2014	09/13	Virginia	23	Louisville	21	Louisville -10	Virginia	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	7	3	3 Overs
Virginia	5	9	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	7 - 5	3 - 5	4 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 7	5 - 7	0 - 4	5 - 3

(#93) UVA at (#21) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	LOU
Power RatePwr	#93	#21
SP+SP+	#106	#24
Perf GradeGrade	#116	#35
OffenseOff	#97	#41
DefenseDef	#128	#23
Spec TeamsST	#112	#98
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#59	#38

Virginia Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
Perf GradePerf	#97	#23
SuccessSuc	#84	#13
ExplosiveExp	#96	#122
PPAPPA	#88	#12
PowerPwr	#84	#16
SP+SP+	#95	#26
Pts POPPO	#85	#77
HavocHav	#109	#23

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#115	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#82	#14
Run ExplRExp	#113	#68
PPAExp	#91	#14
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#89	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#7
TackleTak	-	#50

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#66	#123
PPAExp	#67	#23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#20
F7 HavocF7	#123	#26
DB HavocDB	#79	#32

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
Perf GradePerf	#41	#128
SuccessSuc	#11	#113
ExplosiveExp	#105	#55
PPAPPA	#46	#117
PowerPwr	#44	#114
SP+SP+	#40	#99
Pts POPPO	#53	#103
HavocHav	#68	#96

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#13	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	#118
Run ExplRExp	#101	#84
PPAExp	#43	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#96
TackleTak	-	#96

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#54
PPAExp	#64	#97
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	#127
F7 HavocF7	#64	#108
DB HavocDB	#74	#57

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

UVA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 59° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Louisville -20.5 (49.5)
Louisville won vs Virginia this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Virginia last year (24-20)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2023 (31-24)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2022 (34-17)

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	154	246	63%	1958	13	9	8.0
Tony Muskett (Tr)	93	147	63%	1031	6	5	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perris Jones	76	393	2	5.2	43
Kobe Pace (Tr)	125	382	1	3.1	22
Mike Hollins	80	274	7	3.4	22
Anthony Colandrea	73	225	0	3.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Washington	110	1426	9	13.0	64
Malachi Fields	58	811	5	14.0	39
Kobe Pace (Tr)	19	176	3	9.3	75
Sackett Wood Jr.	9	141	0	15.7	28

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	0	1	11
James Jackson	80	4	1	7	5
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1
Coen King	60	3	0	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Butler	22	5	3	1	0
Ben Smiley III	15	4	2	1	1
Paul Akere	15	3	1	4	0
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	1	11
Dre Walker	11	0	0	5
Coen King	60	3	1	5

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)	256	395	65%	3204	21	12	8.1
Brock Domann	5	5	100%	44	0	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jawhar Jordan	181	1128	13	6.2	74
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)	132	810	11	6.1	73
Maurice Turner	62	284	1	4.6	41
Keyjuan Brown	11	65	1	5.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)	63	858	6	13.6	85
Chris Bell	29	407	2	14.0	48
Kevin Coleman Jr.	24	332	2	13.8	58
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	20	312	4	15.6	55

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
TJ Quinn	87	2	1	5	2
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	0	0	6
Cam'Ron Kelly	64	5	0	1	2
Jaylin Alderman	57	7	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Gillotte	41	12	10	6	0
Mason Reiger	20	6	5	3	2
Ramon Puryear	19	6	4	3	0
Jared Dawson	13	4	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quincy Riley	49	2	10
Jarvis Brownlee	30	1	6
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	6