Murray State at Louisville - 2023 Matchup Preview

Murray State Racers at Louisville Cardinals

Thursday, September 7th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisville -43.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 56 - Murray State: 0

Racers (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 7 - 46 (7 - 46 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Louisville -13 (SP+ LOU -11)
LOU Win prob: 100% | Cover: 53%

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (38 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MURR Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Murray State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Thu 9/7	Murray State at Louisville	+43.5	55.5	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/16	Murray State at Middle Tennessee	+34.5	51.0	L 14 - 35	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Murray State's Schedule

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MURR		0%	7	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	45.5	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	30.7	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.3	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MURR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MURR Offense	2	7	7	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
LOU Defense	14	21.3	16.1	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MURR Defense	2	45.5	45.5	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
LOU Offense	14	30.7	37.7	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Murray State	2	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MURR Offense	2	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MURR Defense	2	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MURR Offense	2	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MURR Defense	2	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)

Murray State's Power Ratings
Murray State's Power Rating: NR
Murray State's Offense Rating: NR
Murray State's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: #179
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Murray State's 2023 Expected Record: -
Murray State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Murray State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Murray State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average OVC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Murray State: Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Murray State: Louisville: 10.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Murray State Scoring
Offense: 7 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 45.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.5

Murray State's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 33
Murray State 20

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 33
Murray State 13

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 40
Murray State 13

Total Points: 53

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.7
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/07	Louisville	56	Murray State	0	Louisville -43.5	Louisville	55.5	Over
2017	09/30	Louisville	55	Murray State	10	Louisville -49	Murray State	63.5	Over
2014	09/06	Louisville	66	Murray State	21	Louisville -37.5	Louisville	0
2011	09/01	Louisville	21	Murray State	9
2007	08/30	Louisville	73	Murray State	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	5	2	2 Overs
Murray State	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 5	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#NR) MURR at (#21) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MURR	LOU
Power RatePwr	NR	#21
SP+SP+	NR	#24
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#35
OffenseOff	NR	#41
DefenseDef	NR	#23
Spec TeamsST	NR	#98
TalentTal	#179	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#38

Murray State Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Murray State on Offense


CategoryCat	MURR Off	LOU Def
Perf GradePerf	NR	#23
SuccessSuc	NR	#13
ExplosiveExp	NR	#122
PPAPPA	NR	#12
PowerPwr	NR	#16
SP+SP+	NR	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	#77
HavocHav	NR	#23

Murray State Run Game


CategoryCat	MURR Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#14
Run ExplRExp	NR	#68
PPAExp	NR	#14
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#3
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#7
TackleTak	-	#50

Murray State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MURR Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#16
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#123
PPAExp	NR	#23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#20
F7 HavocF7	NR	#26
DB HavocDB	NR	#32

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MURR Def
Perf GradePerf	#41	NR
SuccessSuc	#11	NR
ExplosiveExp	#105	NR
PPAPPA	#46	NR
PowerPwr	#44	NR
SP+SP+	#40	NR
Pts POPPO	#53	NR
HavocHav	#68	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MURR Def
Run GameRun	#13	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	NR
Run ExplRExp	#101	NR
PPAExp	#43	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#110	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MURR Def
Pass GamePass	#39	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#82	NR
PPAExp	#64	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	NR
F7 HavocF7	#64	NR
DB HavocDB	#74	NR

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

MURR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 73° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Louisville -43.5 (55.5)
Louisville won vs Murray State this year (56-0)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Murray State in 2023 (56-0)

MURR's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Eric Phoenix	176	274	64%	2457	17	7	9.0
DJ Williams	44	75	59%	555	4	2	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cortezz Jones	110	551	5	5.0	51
Eric Phoenix	81	259	3	3.2	40
DJ Williams	38	243	4	6.4	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cortezz Jones	10	70	0	7.0	23

View Murray State's Full Roster

MURR's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Caldra Williford	9	1	0	1
KaVan Reed	7	1	0	1
Jamari Dailey	6	0	0	0
Jayson Coley	6	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jayson Coley	6	2	2	0
Caldra Williford	9	1	0	1
KaVan Reed	7	1	0	1
Jamari Dailey	6	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Caldra Williford	9	1	1
KaVan Reed	7	1	1
Jamari Dailey	6	0	0

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)	256	395	65%	3204	21	12	8.1
Brock Domann	5	5	100%	44	0	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jawhar Jordan	181	1128	13	6.2	74
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)	132	810	11	6.1	73
Maurice Turner	62	284	1	4.6	41
Keyjuan Brown	11	65	1	5.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)	63	858	6	13.6	85
Chris Bell	29	407	2	14.0	48
Kevin Coleman Jr.	24	332	2	13.8	58
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	20	312	4	15.6	55

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
TJ Quinn	87	2	1	5	2
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	0	0	6
Cam'Ron Kelly	64	5	0	1	2
Jaylin Alderman	57	7	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Gillotte	41	12	10	6	0
Mason Reiger	20	6	5	3	2
Ramon Puryear	19	6	4	3	0
Jared Dawson	13	4	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quincy Riley	49	2	10
Jarvis Brownlee	30	1	6
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	6