Arizona at USC - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
USC -21 (69.5) (0) Open: 0.0
USC 43 - Arizona: 41 (Pac-12)

Wildcats (10 - 3) (11 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jedd Fisch (8 - 19)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARIZ is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: USC -0 (SP+ ARIZ -4)
Projected Score: ARIZ: 31 - USC: 31 (63)
USC Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
ARIZ Travel: 442 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARIZ Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-28.5	61.0	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Arizona at Mississippi State	+9.0	60.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Arizona vs UTEP	-18.0	57.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Arizona at Stanford	-13.0	60.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/30	Arizona vs Washington	+20.0	66.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Arizona at USC	+21.0	69.5	L 41 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Arizona at Washington State	+7.5	57.5	W 44 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Arizona vs Oregon State	+3.0	57.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Arizona vs UCLA	+2.5	50.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arizona at Colorado	-6.0	55.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arizona vs Utah	-2.5	45.5	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arizona at Arizona State	-12.5	48.5	W 59 - 23	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Arizona vs Oklahoma	-2.5	59.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	.29	48%	31.5	53%	3.33	144	45%	318	3.89	.36	53%	19.3	57%	51%	4.48	50	1.8	2.3
USC	.4	51%	35.8	53%	3.52	171	50%	335	4.68	.29	48%	23	53%	46%	4.54	58	0.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Offense	12	31.5	29.4	47.7%	3.89	1.8	24	462	144	318	4.9	41%	57%	53%	45%	16%	.29
USC Defense	14	23	17.9	48.4%	4.54	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	53%	46%	17%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Defense	12	19.3	23.6	53.4%	4.48	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	57%	51%	13%	.36
USC Offense	14	35.8	43	51.3%	4.68	0.5	26	506	171	335	5.1	44%	56%	53%	50%	11%	.4

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona	12	28:03	24.1	42%	43%	5.4	50	1.8	2.3	4.6	1.3	0	27.5
USC	14	31:54	25.7	54%	68%	6.3	58	0.5	2.1	5.5	2.9	3	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense	12	41%	53%	29.3	144	4.9	19	.22	3.33	67%	9%	0.96
USC Defense	14	44%	53%	-	-	-	-	.36	3.45	78%	10%	1.14

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense	12	50%	57%	-	-	-	-	.34	3.63	79%	9%	1
USC Offense	14	44%	53%	33.8	171.1	5.1	30	.3	3.52	83%	7%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense	12	57%	45%	23.6	38.3	318.4	8.3	13.5	26	13	.39	1.8	29%	36%	.49	7%	2.3
USC Defense	14	55%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.27	1.5	29%	36%	.42	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense	12	50%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.4	1.4	25%	39%	.56	5%	2
USC Offense	14	56%	50%	24.6	36.7	335.3	9.1	13.7	43	5	.48	1.6	28%	36%	.49	4%	2.2

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.35 #20
Arizona's Offense Rating: 26.94 #6
Arizona's Defense Rating: 8.46 #53
2023 Talent Rating: 687.01 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #51
Arizona's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Arizona's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #20
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #15
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #41

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 10.35 USC: 11.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 12.1 USC: 7.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 11.355 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 896.41 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Arizona's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona 31
USC 31

Projected Total Points: 63

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/07	USC	43	Arizona	41	USC -21	Arizona	69.5	Over
2022	10/29	Arizona	37	USC	45	USC -14	Arizona	74.0	Over
2021	10/30	USC	41	Arizona	34	USC -22	Arizona	55.5	Over
2020	11/14	Arizona	30	USC	34	USC -15	Arizona	67.0	Under
2019	10/19	USC	41	Arizona	14	USC -10	USC	68.0	Under
2018	09/29	Arizona	20	USC	24	USC -3.5	USC	61.0	Under
2017	11/04	USC	49	Arizona	35	USC -6.5	USC	76.0	Over
2016	10/15	Arizona	14	USC	48	USC -7	USC	65.0	Under
2015	11/07	USC	38	Arizona	30	USC -16.5	Arizona	69.5	Under
2014	10/11	Arizona	26	USC	28	USC -2.5	Arizona	0
2013	10/10	USC	38	Arizona	31	USC -5	USC	0
2012	10/27	Arizona	39	USC	36
2011	10/01	USC	48	Arizona	41
2010	11/13	Arizona	21	USC	24
2009	12/05	USC	17	Arizona	21
2008	10/25	Arizona	10	USC	17
2007	10/13	USC	20	Arizona	13
2006	09/23	Arizona	3	USC	20
2005	10/08	USC	42	Arizona	21
2004	11/13	USC	49	Arizona	9
2003	11/15	Arizona	0	USC	45
2001	10/27	Arizona	34	USC	41
2000	10/06	USC	15	Arizona	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	20	5	4 Overs
Arizona	3	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 12	6 - 5	3 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 11	5 - 6	2 - 3	3 - 3

(#20) ARIZ at (#23) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARIZ	USC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#20	#23
SP+SP+	#20	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#16	#29
OffenseOff	#8	#16
DefenseDef	#56	#80
Spec TeamsST	#63	#86
TalentTal	#42	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#51	#14

Arizona Injury Report

USC Injury Report

Arizona on Offense


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	USC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#8	#80
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#6	#119
SP+SP+	#15	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arizona Run Game


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#8	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

Arizona Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#14	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#4	#26
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	ARIZ Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#16	#56
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#7	#53
SP+SP+	#3	#41
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#10	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#51

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#20	#81
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
USC -21.0 (69.5)
USC won vs Arizona this year (43-41)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Arizona in 2023 (43-41)

ARIZ's OC Brennan Carroll (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	241	333	72%	2869	25	6	8.6
Jayden de Laura	89	128	70%	1120	10	5	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonah Coleman	128	871	5	6.8	59
D.J. Williams	85	372	5	4.4	19
Michael Wiley	70	311	3	4.4	24
Rayshon Luke	37	153	1	4.1	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	90	1402	10	15.6	57
Jacob Cowing	89	839	13	9.4	57
Tanner McLachlan	45	528	4	11.7	36
Michael Wiley	28	306	5	10.9	40

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Johnny Nansen (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Manu	104	10	7	10	2
Dalton Johnson	86	6	2	1	1
Gunner Maldonado	79	1	0	0	1
Ephesians Prysock	64	1	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taylor Upshaw (Tr)	31	12	9	3	1
Jacob Manu	104	10	7	10	2
Isaiah Ward	30	5	4	7	1
Russell Davis II	17	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tacario Davis	25	1	15
Ephesians Prysock	64	1	7
Treydan Stukes	55	4	7

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3