USC at Arizona State - 2023 Matchup Preview
USC logo   USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils  Arizona State logo
Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
USC -34.5 (62.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
USC 42 - Arizona State: 28  (Pac-12)

 
Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ASU 4th straight Home Game
USC coming off BYE
ASU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: USC -16  (SP+ USC -20)
Projected Score: USC: 37 - ASU: 21 (57)
USC Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
USC Travel: 367 miles, 1 hrs behind
Sun Devils (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.4 - 8.6 (#127)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
USC's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 USC vs San José State-31.566.0W 56 - 28ON
Sat 9/2 USC vs Nevada-37.563.5W 66 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 USC vs Stanford-28.570.5W 56 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 USC at Arizona State-34.562.0W 42 - 28ON
Sat 9/30 USC at Colorado-22.074.5W 48 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 USC vs Arizona-21.069.5W 43 - 41ON
Sat 10/14 USC at Notre Dame+3.061.0L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/21 USC vs Utah-7.551.5L 32 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 USC at California-10.567.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 11/4 USC vs Washington+3.076.0L 42 - 52ON
Sat 11/11 USC at Oregon+12.578.5L 27 - 36UY
Sat 11/18 USC vs UCLA-6.065.5L 20 - 38UN
Wed 12/27 USC vs Louisville+4.558.0W 42 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Arizona State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Arizona State vs Southern Utah-34.060.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 9/9 Arizona State vs Oklahoma State+2.553.5L 15 - 27UN
Sat 9/16 Arizona State vs Fresno State+4.048.0L 0 - 29UN
Sat 9/23 Arizona State vs USC+34.562.0L 28 - 42OY
Sat 9/30 Arizona State at California+13.047.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/7 Arizona State vs Colorado+3.058.0L 24 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arizona State at Washington+28.059.5L 7 - 15UY
Sat 10/28 Arizona State vs Washington State+4.549.0W 38 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Arizona State at Utah+11.040.5L 3 - 55ON
Sat 11/11 Arizona State at UCLA+14.045.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/18 Arizona State vs Oregon+21.552.5L 13 - 49ON
Sat 11/25 Arizona State vs Arizona+12.548.5L 23 - 59ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC.451%35.853%3.5217150%3354.68.2948%2353%46%4.54580.52.1
ASU.2344%25.846%3.1213544%2524.22.2747%24.551%45%4.472.31.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ASU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1435.827.451.3%4.680.5265061713355.144%56%53%50%11%.4
ASU Defense1224.521.447.3%4.41 - - - - - 48%52%51%45%17%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense142328.848.4%4.542.1 - - - - - 44%55%53%46%17%.29
ASU Offense1225.824.744.3%4.221.5213871352524.244%55%46%44%19%.23

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1431:5425.754%68%6.3580.52.15.52.9328.2
Arizona State1230:4421.239%63%7.372.31.514.21.4126.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1444%53%33.8171.15.130.33.5283%7%0.97
ASU Defense1248%51% - - - - .343.5379%9%1.11
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1444%53% - - - - .363.4578%10%1.14
ASU Offense1244%46%32.1135.34.221.133.1274%12%0.91

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1456%50%24.636.7335.39.113.7435.481.628%36%.494%2.2
ASU Defense1252%45% - - - - - - 11.251.426%31%.288%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1455%46% - - - - - - 19.271.529%36%.427%2
ASU Offense1255%44%22.533.6251.97.511.21810.351.632%34%.437%2.1

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81  #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88  #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89  #119
2023 Talent Rating: 896.41  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54%  #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9  #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6  #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81   Arizona State: -7.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9   Arizona State: -11.9




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: -7.37  #106
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 12.85  #101
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 16.76  #123
2023 Talent Rating: 681.32  #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 24  #27
Arizona State's 2023 Expected Record: 3.40 - 8.60
Arizona State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9  #108
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #102
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #94

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
USC 37
Arizona State 21

Projected Total Points: 57
Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23Arizona State28USC42USC -34.5Arizona State62.0Over
202210/01USC42Arizona State25USC -24.5Arizona State61.0Over
202111/06Arizona State31USC16Arizona State -10Arizona State61.0Under
202011/07USC28Arizona State27USC -11.5Arizona State56.5Under
201911/09Arizona State26USC31USC -5NA54.0Over
201810/27USC35Arizona State38USC -3Arizona State52.5Over
201710/28Arizona State17USC48USC -4.5USC58.5Over
201610/01USC41Arizona State20USC -8USC63.5Under
201509/26Arizona State14USC42USC -6USC62.0Under
201410/04USC34Arizona State38USC -10.5Arizona State0
201309/28Arizona State62USC41Arizona State -5Arizona State0
201211/10USC38Arizona State17
201109/24Arizona State43USC22
201011/06USC34Arizona State33
200911/07Arizona State9USC14
200810/11USC28Arizona State0
200711/22Arizona State24USC44
200610/14USC28Arizona State21
200510/01Arizona State28USC38
200410/16USC45Arizona State7
200310/04Arizona State17USC37
200110/13USC48Arizona State17
200011/03Arizona State38USC44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State575 Overs
USC1834 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 114 - 63 - 41 - 2
Road Teams11 - 126 - 42 - 14 - 3

(#23) USC at (#106) ASU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSCASU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #23 #106
SP+SP+ #38 #108
Perf GradeGrade #29 #130
OffenseOff #16 #132
DefenseDef #80 #120
Spec TeamsST #86 #117
TalentTal #8 #44
Blue ChipsBC% #14 #27
USC on Offense
CategoryCat
USC OffASU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #16 #120
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #7 #123
SP+SP+ #3 #94
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
USC Run Game
CategoryCat
USC OffASU Def
Run GameRun #10 #100
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #99
USC Pass Game
CategoryCat
USC OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #9 #120
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #20 #95
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Arizona State on Offense
CategoryCatASU OffUSC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #132 #80
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #101 #119
SP+SP+ #102 #109
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arizona State Run Game
CategoryCat
ASU OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #68 #84
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #77
Arizona State Pass Game
CategoryCatASU OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #133 #90
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #77 #26
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
USC 34.5 (62.0)
USC won at Arizona State this year (42-28)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Arizona State in 2023 (42-28)

  
USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caleb Williams26638869%36333059.4
Miller Moss466571%6817110.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)11682097.156
Austin Jones8547775.637
Quinten Joyner1812516.947
Caleb Williams99115111.246
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tahj Washington591062818.076
Brenden Rice457911217.675
Duce Robinson16351221.971
Zachariah Branch31320210.336

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Cobb (Tr)857001
Jaylin Smith695111
Calen Bullock580005
Bryson Shaw523100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)4610641
Solomon Byrd448521
Romello Height185410
Braylan Shelby174200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)343009
Calen Bullock580005
Eric Gentry433103

ASU's OC Beau Baldwin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trenton Bourguet15124861%1486146.0
Jaden Rashada448254%485435.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)16478894.866
DeCarlos Brooks (Tr)4825935.421
Kyson Brown2310604.615
Jalin Conyers229214.239
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger65713311.065
Jalin Conyers30362012.150
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)24286111.966
Xavier Guillory (Tr)21226110.847

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shamari Simmons (Tr)732146
Chris Edmonds710022
Travion Brown (Tr)533101
Tate Romney (Tr)524144
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Prince Dorbah (Tr)3010671
B.J. Green II39126110
Clayton Smith (Tr)216571
Dashaun Mallory (Tr)4810244
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Clark502009
Shamari Simmons (Tr)732146
Demetries Ford312005