USC at Arizona State - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#25)USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
USC -34.5 (62.0) (0) Open: 0.0
USC 42 - Arizona State: 28 (Pac-12)

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 42 - 34 (37 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ASU 4th straight Home Game
USC coming off BYE
ASU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: USC -16 (SP+ USC -20)
Projected Score: USC: 37 - ASU: 21 (57)
USC Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
USC Travel: 367 miles, 1 hrs behind

Sun Devils (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 32 (21 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.4 - 8.6 (#127)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
ASU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Arizona State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Arizona State vs Southern Utah	-34.0	60.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/9	Arizona State vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	53.5	L 15 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arizona State vs Fresno State	+4.0	48.0	L 0 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arizona State vs USC	+34.5	62.0	L 28 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arizona State at California	+13.0	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Arizona State vs Colorado	+3.0	58.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arizona State at Washington	+28.0	59.5	L 7 - 15	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Arizona State vs Washington State	+4.5	49.0	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arizona State at Utah	+11.0	40.5	L 3 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/11	Arizona State at UCLA	+14.0	45.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arizona State vs Oregon	+21.5	52.5	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/25	Arizona State vs Arizona	+12.5	48.5	L 23 - 59	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#6 (.39)	47% (15)	41.8	48% (20)	3.19 (52)	134	47% (21)	333	4.99 (4)	#122 (.29)	46% (121)	34.4	49% (125)	43% (91)	3.55 (49)	64.9	1.3	1.2
ASU	#110 (.12)	38% (112)	17.8	44% (57)	3.14 (62)	111	34% (123)	210	3.28 (108)	#112 (.25)	47% (123)	31.8	47% (105)	47% (125)	3.99 (86)	51.8	1.7	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
ASU	#13 (.31)	50% (8)		52% (6)	3.35 (19)	187	47% (21)	208	4.14 (48)	#36 (.12)	42% (79)		41% (49)	44% (106)	3.64 (51)	50.1	0.6	1.4

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	41.8	37.4	47.5%	4.99	1.3	22	467	134	333	4.8	41%	59%	48%	47%	14%	.39
ASU Defense	12	31.8	35.1	46.5%	3.99	1	-	-	-	-	-	42%	58%	47%	47%	16%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	34.4	40.4	45.8%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	43%	14%	.29
ASU Offense	12	17.8	20.6	37.7%	3.28	1.7	19	322	111	210	3.6	43%	56%	44%	34%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	27:33	22.5	43%	61%	7.3	64.9	1.3	1.2	5.5	1.9	3	30.3
Arizona State	12	30:16	18.8	31%	47%	5.8	51.8	1.7	1	5.4	2.2	0	25.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	41% (123)	48% (20)	27.8	133.6	4.8	33 (8)	.29 (8)	3.19 (52)	78% (28)	10% (65)	1.2 (2)
ASU Defense	12	42% (5)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.2 (104)	3.53 (130)	72% (63)	10% (60)	0.99 (65)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	51% (83)	49% (125)	-	-	-	-	.29 (128)	3.31 (110)	73% (64)	10% (64)	1.07 (100)
ASU Offense	12	43% (113)	44% (57)	31.2	111.2	3.6	17 (81)	.2 (42)	3.14 (62)	67% (107)	10% (73)	0.99 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	59% (10)	47% (21)	24.2	35.5	333	9.4	13.8	37 (4)	6 (14)	.47 (14)	1.7 (20)	29% (22)	37% (14)	.65 (4)	4% (15)	2.3 (12)
ASU Defense	12	58% (129)	47% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.3 (91)	1.4 (6)	30% (110)	33% (105)	.41 (109)	6% (67)	1.9 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	49% (60)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.32 (98)	1.7 (90)	31% (87)	34% (115)	.4 (108)	4% (129)	2.1 (92)
ASU Offense	12	56% (23)	34% (123)	20.3	36.7	210.3	5.7	10.4	8 (128)	14 (107)	.1 (124)	1.5 (95)	34% (111)	25% (113)	.23 (102)	8% (120)	2.1 (41)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81 Arizona State: -7.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9 Arizona State: -11.9

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: -7.37 #106
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 12.85 #101
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 16.76 #123
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 24 #27
Arizona State's 2023 Expected Record: 3.40 - 8.60
Arizona State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9 #108
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #102
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #94

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

USC Scoring
Offense: 41.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.4
Defense: 34.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.4

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 37
Arizona State 21

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 27
Arizona State 13

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
USC 37
Arizona State 28

Total Points: 65

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.6
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.1

Arizona State's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Arizona State	28	USC	42	USC -34.5	Arizona State	62.0	Over
2022	10/01	USC	42	Arizona State	25	USC -24.5	Arizona State	61.0	Over
2021	11/06	Arizona State	31	USC	16	Arizona State -10	Arizona State	61.0	Under
2020	11/07	USC	28	Arizona State	27	USC -11.5	Arizona State	56.5	Under
2019	11/09	Arizona State	26	USC	31	USC -5	NA	54.0	Over
2018	10/27	USC	35	Arizona State	38	USC -3	Arizona State	52.5	Over
2017	10/28	Arizona State	17	USC	48	USC -4.5	USC	58.5	Over
2016	10/01	USC	41	Arizona State	20	USC -8	USC	63.5	Under
2015	09/26	Arizona State	14	USC	42	USC -6	USC	62.0	Under
2014	10/04	USC	34	Arizona State	38	USC -10.5	Arizona State	0
2013	09/28	Arizona State	62	USC	41	Arizona State -5	Arizona State	0
2012	11/10	USC	38	Arizona State	17
2011	09/24	Arizona State	43	USC	22
2010	11/06	USC	34	Arizona State	33
2009	11/07	Arizona State	9	USC	14
2008	10/11	USC	28	Arizona State	0
2007	11/22	Arizona State	24	USC	44
2006	10/14	USC	28	Arizona State	21
2005	10/01	Arizona State	28	USC	38
2004	10/16	USC	45	Arizona State	7
2003	10/04	Arizona State	17	USC	37
2001	10/13	USC	48	Arizona State	17
2000	11/03	Arizona State	38	USC	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona State	5	7	5 Overs
USC	18	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 11	4 - 6	3 - 4	1 - 2
Road Teams	11 - 12	6 - 4	2 - 1	4 - 3

(#23) USC at (#106) ASU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	ASU
Power RatePwr	#23	#106
SP+SP+	#38	#108
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#130
OffenseOff	#16	#132
DefenseDef	#80	#120
Spec TeamsST	#86	#117
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#14	#27

USC Injury Report

Arizona State Injury Report

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	ASU Def
Perf GradePerf	#16	#120
SuccessSuc	#15	#123
ExplosiveExp	#2	#30
PPAPPA	#6	#112
PowerPwr	#7	#123
SP+SP+	#3	#94
Pts POPPO	#4	#86
HavocHav	#31	#62

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#100
Run SuccessRSuc	#20	#105
Run ExplRExp	#2	#65
PPAExp	#8	#104
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#130
Stuff RateStuff	#88	#129
TackleTak	-	#99

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#6
PPAExp	#14	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#95
F7 HavocF7	#65	#60
DB HavocDB	#15	#67

Arizona State on Offense


CategoryCat	ASU Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#132	#80
SuccessSuc	#112	#121
ExplosiveExp	#90	#96
PPAPPA	#110	#122
PowerPwr	#101	#119
SP+SP+	#102	#109
Pts POPPO	#108	#49
HavocHav	#101	#116

Arizona State Run Game


CategoryCat	ASU Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#68	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#57	#125
Run ExplRExp	#71	#100
PPAExp	#42	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#110
Stuff RateStuff	#18	#79
TackleTak	-	#77

Arizona State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ASU Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#90
PPAExp	#124	#98
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#26
F7 HavocF7	#73	#64
DB HavocDB	#120	#129

Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 88°

Rematch from Week 4
USC 34.5 (62.0)
USC won at Arizona State this year (42-28)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Arizona State in 2023 (42-28)
USC beat Arizona State in 2022 (42-25)

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3

ASU's OC Beau Baldwin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Trenton Bourguet	151	248	61%	1486	1	4	6.0
Jaden Rashada	44	82	54%	485	4	3	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)	164	788	9	4.8	66
DeCarlos Brooks (Tr)	48	259	3	5.4	21
Kyson Brown	23	106	0	4.6	15
Jalin Conyers	22	92	1	4.2	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijhah Badger	65	713	3	11.0	65
Jalin Conyers	30	362	0	12.1	50
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)	24	286	1	11.9	66
Xavier Guillory (Tr)	21	226	1	10.8	47

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shamari Simmons (Tr)	73	2	1	4	6
Chris Edmonds	71	0	0	2	2
Travion Brown (Tr)	53	3	1	0	1
Tate Romney (Tr)	52	4	1	4	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Prince Dorbah (Tr)	30	10	6	7	1
B.J. Green II	39	12	6	11	0
Clayton Smith (Tr)	21	6	5	7	1
Dashaun Mallory (Tr)	48	10	2	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Clark	50	2	0	0	9
Shamari Simmons (Tr)	73	2	1	4	6
Demetries Ford	31	2	0	0	5