USC at Arizona State - 2023 Matchup Preview
USC logo (#25)USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State logo
Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
USC -34.5 (62.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
USC 42 - Arizona State: 28  (Pac-12)

 
Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 42 - 34 (37 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ASU 4th straight Home Game
USC coming off BYE
ASU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: USC -16   (SP+ USC -20)

Projected Score: USC: 40 - ASU: 24 (64)
USC Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
USC Travel: 367 miles
Sun Devils (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 32 (21 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.4 - 8.6 (#127)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
USC's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 USC vs San José State-31.566.0W 56 - 28ON
Sat 9/2 USC vs Nevada-37.563.5W 66 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 USC vs Stanford-28.570.5W 56 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 USC at Arizona State-34.562.0W 42 - 28ON
Sat 9/30 USC at Colorado-22.074.5W 48 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 USC vs Arizona-21.069.5W 43 - 41ON
Sat 10/14 USC at Notre Dame+3.061.0L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/21 USC vs Utah-7.551.5L 32 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 USC at California-10.567.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 11/4 USC vs Washington+3.076.0L 42 - 52ON
Sat 11/11 USC at Oregon+12.578.5L 27 - 36UY
Sat 11/18 USC vs UCLA-6.065.5L 20 - 38UN
Wed 12/27 USC vs Louisville+4.558.0W 42 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Arizona State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Arizona State vs Southern Utah-34.060.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 9/9 Arizona State vs Oklahoma State+2.553.5L 15 - 27UN
Sat 9/16 Arizona State vs Fresno State+4.048.0L 0 - 29UN
Sat 9/23 Arizona State vs USC+34.562.0L 28 - 42OY
Sat 9/30 Arizona State at California+13.047.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/7 Arizona State vs Colorado+3.058.0L 24 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arizona State at Washington+28.059.5L 7 - 15UY
Sat 10/28 Arizona State vs Washington State+4.549.0W 38 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Arizona State at Utah+11.040.5L 3 - 55ON
Sat 11/11 Arizona State at UCLA+14.045.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/18 Arizona State vs Oregon+21.552.5L 13 - 49ON
Sat 11/25 Arizona State vs Arizona+12.548.5L 23 - 59ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#6 (.39)47% (15)41.848% (20)3.19 (52)13447% (21)3334.99 (4)#122 (.29)46% (121)34.449% (125)43% (91)3.55 (49)64.91.31.2
ASU#110 (.12)38% (112)17.844% (57)3.14 (62)11134% (123)2103.28 (108)#112 (.25)47% (123)31.847% (105)47% (125)3.99 (86)51.81.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1341.837.447.5%4.991.3224671343334.841%59%48%47%14%.39
ASU Defense1231.835.146.5%3.991 - - - - - 42%58%47%47%16%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense1334.440.445.8%3.551.2 - - - - - 51%49%49%43%14%.29
ASU Offense1217.820.637.7%3.281.7193221112103.643%56%44%34%18%.12

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1327:3322.543%61%7.364.91.31.25.51.9330.3
Arizona State1230:1618.831%47%5.851.81.715.42.2025.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1341% (123)48% (20)27.8133.64.833 (8).29 (8)3.19 (52)78% (28)10% (65)1.2 (2)
ASU Defense1242% (5)47% (105) - - - - .2 (104)3.53 (130)72% (63)10% (60)0.99 (65)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1351% (83)49% (125) - - - - .29 (128)3.31 (110)73% (64)10% (64)1.07 (100)
ASU Offense1243% (113)44% (57)31.2111.23.617 (81).2 (42)3.14 (62)67% (107)10% (73)0.99 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1359% (10)47% (21)24.235.53339.413.837 (4)6 (14).47 (14)1.7 (20)29% (22)37% (14).65 (4)4% (15)2.3 (12)
ASU Defense1258% (129)47% (125) - - - - - - 5 (126).3 (91)1.4 (6)30% (110)33% (105).41 (109)6% (67)1.9 (21)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1349% (60)43% (91) - - - - - - 7 (111).32 (98)1.7 (90)31% (87)34% (115).4 (108)4% (129)2.1 (92)
ASU Offense1256% (23)34% (123)20.336.7210.35.710.48 (128)14 (107).1 (124)1.5 (95)34% (111)25% (113).23 (102)8% (120)2.1 (41)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81   Arizona State: -7.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9   Arizona State: -11.9




Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: -7.37 #106
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 12.85 #101
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 16.76 #123
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 24 #27
Arizona State's 2023 Expected Record: 3.40 - 8.60
Arizona State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9 #108
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #102
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #94

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


USC Scoring
Offense: 41.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.4
Defense: 34.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.4

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
USC 40
Arizona State 24


Total Points: 64

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.6
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.1

Arizona State's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23Arizona State28USC42USCUSC -34.5Arizona State62.0Over
202210/01USC42Arizona State25USCUSC -24.5Arizona State61.0Over
202111/06Arizona State31USC16Arizona StateArizona State -10Arizona State61.0Under
202011/07USC28Arizona State27USCUSC -11.5Arizona State56.5Under
201911/09Arizona State26USC31USCUSC -5NA54.0Over
201810/27USC35Arizona State38Arizona StateUSC -3Arizona State52.5Over
201710/28Arizona State17USC48USCUSC -4.5USC58.5Over
201610/01USC41Arizona State20USCUSC -8USC63.5Under
201509/26Arizona State14USC42USCUSC -6USC62.0Under
201410/04USC34Arizona State38Arizona StateUSC -10.5Arizona State0
201309/28Arizona State62USC41Arizona StateArizona State -5Arizona State0
201211/10USC38Arizona State17USC
201109/24Arizona State43USC22Arizona State
201011/06USC34Arizona State33USC
200911/07Arizona State9USC14USC
200810/11USC28Arizona State0USC
200711/22Arizona State24USC44USC
200610/14USC28Arizona State21USC
200510/01Arizona State28USC38USC
200410/16USC45Arizona State7USC
200310/04Arizona State17USC37USC
200110/13USC48Arizona State17USC
200011/03Arizona State38USC44USC
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona State575 Overs
USC1834 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 114 - 63 - 41 - 2
Road Teams11 - 126 - 42 - 14 - 3

(#23) USC Info
Power Rating: 9.81 #23
Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90


USC has won 3 straight
Record on Road: 3 - 2 (1 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

USC Highlights
USC offense is efficent (#2)
USC offense is explosive (#45)
USC offense is good in red zone (#9)

USC Deficiencies
USC Fumbles a Lot (#89)
USC Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
USC Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
USC has a bad defense (#43)
USC has a bad defensive line (#75)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatASUUSC
OverallOver#109#24
OffenseOff#113#14
DefenseDef#93#61
Special TeamsST#94#68
PassingPass#113#8
RushingRush#48#9
Run BlockRBLK#91#50
Pass BlockPBLK#67#18
Route RunningWR Rt#107#15
TacklingTkl#85#67
Run DefenseR Def#85#72
Pass Rush DefPRush#74#23
Coverage DefCov#99#73

Rematch from Week 4
USC 34.5 (62.0)
USC won at Arizona State this year (42-28)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Arizona State in 2023 (42-28)
USC beat Arizona State in 2022 (42-25)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USC | ASU
Depth Chart: USC | ASU
Rosters: USC | ASU
(#106) Arizona State Info
Power Rating: -7.37 #106
Offense Rating: 12.85 #101
Defense Rating: 16.76 #123
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9 #108
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #102
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #94
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 24 #27
Expected Record: 3.40 - 8.60


Arizona State has lost 2 straight
Arizona State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 6 (2 - 5 - 1 vs Spread)

Arizona State Highlights
Arizona State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#71)

Arizona State defense does not give up big plays (#49)

Arizona State Deficiencies
Arizona State has a really bad Offense
Arizona State has a really bad Offense at Home
Arizona State Can Not Run the Ball (#15)
Arizona State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#92)
Arizona State offense is really bad (#54)
Arizona State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#61)
Arizona State pass game is really bad (#99)
Arizona State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Arizona State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arizona State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Arizona State has a bad defense (#90)
Arizona State Does Not Stuff Runs (#57)
Arizona State has a bad defensive line (#29)


  
USC's OC Josh Henson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caleb Williams26638869%36333059.4
Miller Moss466571%6817110.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)11682097.156
Austin Jones8547775.637
Quinten Joyner1812516.947
Caleb Williams99115111.246
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tahj Washington591062818.076
Brenden Rice457911217.675
Duce Robinson16351221.971
Zachariah Branch31320210.336

View USC's Full Roster
USC's DC Alex Grinch
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Cobb (Tr)857001
Jaylin Smith695111
Calen Bullock580005
Bryson Shaw523100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)4610641
Solomon Byrd448521
Romello Height185410
Braylan Shelby174200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)343009
Calen Bullock580005
Eric Gentry433103

Arizona State's OC Beau Baldwin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trenton Bourguet15124861%1486146.0
Jaden Rashada448254%485435.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)16478894.866
DeCarlos Brooks (Tr)4825935.421
Kyson Brown2310604.615
Jalin Conyers229214.239
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijhah Badger65713311.065
Jalin Conyers30362012.150
Cameron Skattebo (Tr)24286111.966
Xavier Guillory (Tr)21226110.847

View Arizona State's Full Roster
Arizona State's DC Brian Ward
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shamari Simmons (Tr)732146
Chris Edmonds710022
Travion Brown (Tr)533101
Tate Romney (Tr)524144
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Prince Dorbah (Tr)3010671
B.J. Green II39126110
Clayton Smith (Tr)216571
Dashaun Mallory (Tr)4810244
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Clark502009
Shamari Simmons (Tr)732146
Demetries Ford312005