USC at Notre Dame - 2023 Matchup Preview
USC logo USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#16)Notre Dame logo
Saturday, October 14th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -3 (61.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Notre Dame 48 - USC: 20

 
Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 42 - 34 (37 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ND is playing their 7th straight game
USC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -13  (SP+ ND -11)
Projected Score: USC: 25 - ND: 38 (63)
ND Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
USC Travel: 1816 miles, 3 hrs behind
Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 39 - 16 (44 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
USC's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 USC vs San José State-31.566.0W 56 - 28ON
Sat 9/2 USC vs Nevada-37.563.5W 66 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 USC vs Stanford-28.570.5W 56 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 USC at Arizona State-34.562.0W 42 - 28ON
Sat 9/30 USC at Colorado-22.074.5W 48 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 USC vs Arizona-21.069.5W 43 - 41ON
Sat 10/14 USC at Notre Dame+3.061.0L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/21 USC vs Utah-7.551.5L 32 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 USC at California-10.567.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 11/4 USC vs Washington+3.076.0L 42 - 52ON
Sat 11/11 USC at Oregon+12.578.5L 27 - 36UY
Sat 11/18 USC vs UCLA-6.065.5L 20 - 38UN
Wed 12/27 USC vs Louisville+4.558.0W 42 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-20.549.0W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/2 Notre Dame vs Tennessee State-48.555.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/9 Notre Dame at NC State-7.049.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 9/16 Notre Dame vs Central Michigan-34.551.5W 41 - 17ON
Sat 9/23 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+3.055.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 Notre Dame at Duke-5.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 10/7 Notre Dame at Louisville-6.553.0L 20 - 33UN
Sat 10/14 Notre Dame vs USC-3.061.0W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh-21.045.5W 58 - 7OY
Sat 11/4 Notre Dame at Clemson-3.044.5L 23 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Notre Dame vs Wake Forest-22.547.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 11/25 Notre Dame at Stanford-26.050.5W 56 - 23OY
Fri 12/29 Notre Dame vs Oregon State-5.540.5W 40 - 8OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#6 (.39)47% (15)41.848% (20)3.19 (52)13447% (21)3334.99 (4)#122 (.29)46% (121)34.449% (125)43% (91)3.55 (49)64.91.31.2
ND#8 (.35)49% (9)39.251% (9)3.37 (15)18648% (19)2474.87 (7)#6 (.04)35% (7)15.937% (21)33% (3)2.97 (11)48.21.31.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USC#41 (.24)48% (11)52% (10)3.49 (9)13846% (26)2693.76 (85)#78 (.18)44% (94)44% (78)44% (103)3.64 (49)461.41.2
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Offense1341.837.447.5%4.991.3224671343334.841%59%48%47%14%.39
ND Defense1315.911.834.6%2.971.8 - - - - - 50%49%37%33%18%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USC Defense1334.440.445.8%3.551.2 - - - - - 51%49%49%43%14%.29
ND Offense1339.243.749.3%4.871.3214331862475.352%47%51%48%11%.35

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
USC1327:3322.543%61%7.364.91.31.25.51.9330.3
Notre Dame1330:4820.945%59%5.448.21.31.84.81.9429.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Offense1341% (123)48% (20)27.8133.64.833 (8).29 (8)3.19 (52)78% (28)10% (65)1.2 (2)
ND Defense1350% (61)37% (21) - - - - .07 (29)2.85 (26)67% (34)11% (50)1.05 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USC Defense1351% (83)49% (125) - - - - .29 (128)3.31 (110)73% (64)10% (64)1.07 (100)
ND Offense1352% (45)51% (9)35.2186.35.328 (25).23 (27)3.37 (15)72% (83)7% (10)0.97 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Offense1359% (10)47% (21)24.235.53339.413.837 (4)6 (14).47 (14)1.7 (20)29% (22)37% (14).65 (4)4% (15)2.3 (12)
ND Defense1349% (67)33% (3) - - - - - - 16 (9).04 (2)1.5 (40)36% (14)25% (14).23 (26)7% (27)1.9 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USC Defense1349% (60)43% (91) - - - - - - 7 (111).32 (98)1.7 (90)31% (87)34% (115).4 (108)4% (129)2.1 (92)
ND Offense1347% (85)48% (19)17.527246.59.114.131 (14)9 (40).51 (8)1.8 (16)28% (10)37% (19).53 (14)4% (11)2.1 (60)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81  #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88  #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89  #119
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54%  #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9  #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6  #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81   Notre Dame: 21.915

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9   Notre Dame: 19.1




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 21.915  #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62  #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24  #12
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 67  #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1  #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8  #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


USC Scoring
Offense: 41.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.4
Defense: 34.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.4

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 38
USC 25

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 32
Notre Dame 29

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 40
USC 27

Total Points: 67
Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 39.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30USC35Notre Dame49Notre Dame -6.5Notre Dame52.5Over
202310/14Notre Dame48USC20Notre Dame -3Notre Dame61.0Over
202211/26USC38Notre Dame27USC -4USC63.5Over
202110/23Notre Dame31USC16Notre Dame -8Notre Dame59.5Under
201910/12Notre Dame30USC27Notre Dame -10.5USC60.0Under
201811/24USC17Notre Dame24Notre Dame -12.5USC54.0Under
201710/21Notre Dame49USC14Notre Dame -4Notre Dame61.5Over
201611/26USC45Notre Dame27USC -17USC59.5Over
201510/17Notre Dame41USC31Notre Dame -3Notre Dame62.0Over
201411/29USC49Notre Dame14USC -7USC0
201310/19Notre Dame14USC10Notre Dame -1.5Notre Dame0
201211/24USC13Notre Dame22
201110/22Notre Dame17USC31
201011/27USC16Notre Dame20
200910/17Notre Dame27USC34
200811/29USC38Notre Dame3
200710/20Notre Dame0USC38
200611/25USC44Notre Dame24
200510/15Notre Dame31USC34
200411/27USC41Notre Dame10
200310/18Notre Dame14USC45
200110/20Notre Dame27USC16
200011/24USC21Notre Dame38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame1266 Overs
USC1153 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 109 - 28 - 11 - 1
Road Teams10 - 132 - 91 - 11 - 8

(#23) USC at (#6) ND
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSCND
Power RatePwr #23 #6
SP+SP+ #38 #9
Perf GradeGrade #29 #2
OffenseOff #16 #5
DefenseDef #80 #3
Spec TeamsST #86 #2
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #14 #9
USC on Offense
CategoryCat
USC OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #16 #3
SuccessSuc #15 #7
ExplosiveExp #2 #57
PPAPPA #6 #6
PowerPwr #7 #12
SP+SP+ #3 #11
Pts POPPO #4 #11
HavocHav #31 #32
USC Run Game
CategoryCat
USC OffND Def
Run GameRun #10 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #21
Run ExplRExp #2 #92
PPAExp #8 #29
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLY #52 #26
Stuff RateStuff #88 #18
TackleTak -  #38
USC Pass Game
CategoryCat
USC OffND Def
Pass GamePass #9 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #3
Pass ExplPExl #20 #40
PPAExp #14 #2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #20 #8
F7 HavocF7 #65 #50
DB HavocDB #15 #27
Notre Dame on Offense
CategoryCatND OffUSC Def
Perf GradePerf #5 #80
SuccessSuc #9 #121
ExplosiveExp #44 #96
PPAPPA #8 #122
PowerPwr #11 #119
SP+SP+ #17 #109
Pts POPPO #7 #49
HavocHav #7 #116
Notre Dame Run Game
CategoryCat
ND OffUSC Def
Run GameRun #15 #84
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #125
Run ExplRExp #86 #100
PPAExp #27 #128
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #15 #110
Stuff RateStuff #36 #79
TackleTak -  #77
Notre Dame Pass Game
CategoryCatND OffUSC Def
Pass GamePass #17 #90
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #91
Pass ExplPExl #16 #90
PPAExp #8 #98
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25 #26
F7 HavocF7 #10 #64
DB HavocDB #11 #129
Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 52° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Notre Dame -3.0 (61.0)
Notre Dame won vs USC this year (48-20)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat USC last year (49-35)
Notre Dame beat USC in 2023 (48-20)
USC beat Notre Dame in 2022 (38-27)

  
USC's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caleb Williams26638869%36333059.4
Miller Moss466571%6817110.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)11682097.156
Austin Jones8547775.637
Quinten Joyner1812516.947
Caleb Williams99115111.246
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tahj Washington591062818.076
Brenden Rice457911217.675
Duce Robinson16351221.971
Zachariah Branch31320210.336

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Cobb (Tr)857001
Jaylin Smith695111
Calen Bullock580005
Bryson Shaw523100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)4610641
Solomon Byrd448521
Romello Height185410
Braylan Shelby174200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)343009
Calen Bullock580005
Eric Gentry433103

ND's OC Gerad Parker (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)19130164%26892488.9
Steven Angeli344477%5047111.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Audric Estime2101341186.480
Jeremiyah Love7138515.436
Jadarian Price4727235.854
Gi'Bran Payne4516823.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Tyree26484318.676
Mitchell Evans29422114.636
Rico Flores27392114.560
Jordan Faison19322416.955

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JD Bertrand768375
Howard Cross III657242
Jack Kiser521131
Xavier Watts473103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)4610581
Jordan Botelho295430
Marist Liufau426321
Nana Osafo-Mensah206320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Benjamin Morrison304009
JD Bertrand768375
Cam Hart192004