USC at Oregon - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (10:30 PM EST)
Oregon -12.5 (78.5) (-1050) Open: -2.0
Oregon 36 - USC: 27 (Pac-12)

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 42 - 34 (37 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORE 2nd straight Home Game
ORE is playing their 5th straight game
USC is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -19.5 (SP+ ORE -17)
Projected Score: USC: 28 - ORE: 47 (75)
ORE Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
USC Travel: 740 miles

Ducks (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Dan Lanning (13 - 3)
Avg Score : 44 - 17 (49 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.3 - 1.7 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Oregon's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oregon vs Portland State	-48.0	64.5	W 81 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon at Texas Tech	-4.5	70.0	W 38 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon vs Hawai'i	-38.5	67.5	W 55 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Oregon vs Colorado	-21.0	70.0	W 42 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Oregon at Stanford	-27.0	59.5	W 42 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Oregon at Washington	+3.0	67.0	L 33 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oregon vs Washington State	-19.5	60.5	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/28	Oregon at Utah	-6.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Oregon vs California	-26.5	61.5	W 63 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Oregon vs USC	-12.5	78.5	W 36 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oregon at Arizona State	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Oregon vs Oregon State	-14.0	61.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 12/1	Oregon vs Washington	-9.0	67.0	L 31 - 34	U	N
Mon 1/1	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5	71.5	W 45 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#6 (.39)	47% (15)	41.8	48% (20)	3.19 (52)	134	47% (21)	333	4.99 (4)	#122 (.29)	46% (121)	34.4	49% (125)	43% (91)	3.55 (49)	64.9	1.3	1.2
ORE	#2 (.49)	57% (1)	44.2	57% (2)	3.69 (4)	171	57% (1)	318	5.11 (1)	#19 (.1)	38% (30)	16.5	39% (35)	39% (27)	3.33 (24)	59.1	0.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)		51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)		42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	41.8	37.4	47.5%	4.99	1.3	22	467	134	333	4.8	41%	59%	48%	47%	14%	.39
ORE Defense	14	16.5	14.3	38.4%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	39%	39%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	34.4	40.4	45.8%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	43%	14%	.29
ORE Offense	14	44.2	49.4	56.9%	5.11	0.5	24	490	171	318	5.9	44%	56%	57%	57%	9%	.49

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	27:33	22.5	43%	61%	7.3	64.9	1.3	1.2	5.5	1.9	3	30.3
Oregon	14	28:31	24.4	51%	74%	6.5	59.1	0.5	1.1	4.8	2.4	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	41% (123)	48% (20)	27.8	133.6	4.8	33 (8)	.29 (8)	3.19 (52)	78% (28)	10% (65)	1.2 (2)
ORE Defense	14	39% (2)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	.08 (32)	3.08 (60)	55% (6)	9% (96)	0.97 (54)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	51% (83)	49% (125)	-	-	-	-	.29 (128)	3.31 (110)	73% (64)	10% (64)	1.07 (100)
ORE Offense	14	44% (107)	57% (2)	29.1	171.4	5.9	32 (10)	.37 (2)	3.69 (4)	78% (32)	6% (3)	1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	59% (10)	47% (21)	24.2	35.5	333	9.4	13.8	37 (4)	6 (14)	.47 (14)	1.7 (20)	29% (22)	37% (14)	.65 (4)	4% (15)	2.3 (12)
ORE Defense	14	59% (132)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.16 (16)	1.5 (45)	32% (70)	30% (60)	.33 (78)	8% (13)	2 (45)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	49% (60)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.32 (98)	1.7 (90)	31% (87)	34% (115)	.4 (108)	4% (129)	2.1 (92)
ORE Offense	14	56% (22)	57% (1)	26	33.7	318.3	9.4	12.2	44 (1)	5 (6)	.59 (3)	1.5 (112)	24% (3)	43% (3)	.73 (2)	3% (4)	2 (70)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81 Oregon: 28.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9 Oregon: 25.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.15 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Oregon's 2023 Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70
Oregon's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

USC Scoring
Offense: 41.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.4
Defense: 34.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.4

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 47
USC 28

Total Points: 75

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 47
USC 28

Total Points: 75

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 42
USC 27

Total Points: 69

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 44.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 49.4
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

Oregon's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Oregon	42	USC	27	Oregon -10.5	Oregon	59.5	Over
2023	11/11	Oregon	36	USC	27	Oregon -12.5	USC	78.5	Under
2020	12/18	USC	24	Oregon	31	USC -3	Oregon	65.5	Under
2019	11/02	USC	24	Oregon	56	Oregon -3.5	Oregon	59.5	Over
2016	11/05	USC	45	Oregon	20	USC -14	USC	76.5	Under
2015	11/21	Oregon	48	USC	28	Oregon -2.5	Oregon	72.0	Over
2012	11/03	USC	51	Oregon	62
2011	11/19	Oregon	35	USC	38
2010	10/30	USC	32	Oregon	53
2009	10/31	Oregon	47	USC	20
2008	10/04	USC	44	Oregon	10
2007	10/27	Oregon	24	USC	17
2006	11/11	USC	35	Oregon	10
2005	09/24	Oregon	13	USC	45
2002	10/26	Oregon	33	USC	44
2001	09/22	Oregon	24	USC	22
2000	10/13	USC	17	Oregon	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	11	4	3 Overs
USC	6	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 8	3 - 3	3 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 9	3 - 3	1 - 0	2 - 3

(#23) USC at (#2) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	ORE
Power RatePwr	#23	#2
SP+SP+	#38	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#5
OffenseOff	#16	#1
DefenseDef	#80	#20
Spec TeamsST	#86	#29
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#14	#12

USC Injury Report

Oregon Injury Report

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	ORE Def
Perf GradePerf	#16	#20
SuccessSuc	#15	#30
ExplosiveExp	#2	#78
PPAPPA	#6	#19
PowerPwr	#7	#18
SP+SP+	#3	#19
Pts POPPO	#4	#24
HavocHav	#31	#52

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#10	#28
Run SuccessRSuc	#20	#35
Run ExplRExp	#2	#54
PPAExp	#8	#32
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#88	#75
TackleTak	-	#4

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#45
PPAExp	#14	#16
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#45
F7 HavocF7	#65	#96
DB HavocDB	#15	#13

Oregon on Offense


CategoryCat	ORE Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#1	#80
SuccessSuc	#1	#121
ExplosiveExp	#67	#96
PPAPPA	#2	#122
PowerPwr	#2	#119
SP+SP+	#1	#109
Pts POPPO	#1	#49
HavocHav	#2	#116

Oregon Run Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#2	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#125
Run ExplRExp	#37	#100
PPAExp	#2	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#110
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#79
TackleTak	-	#77

Oregon Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#90
PPAExp	#3	#98
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#1	#26
F7 HavocF7	#3	#64
DB HavocDB	#4	#129

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Improving CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 48°

Rematch from Week 11
Oregon -12.5 (78.5)
Oregon won vs USC this year (36-27)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat USC in 2023 (36-27)

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bo Nix	364	470	77%	4508	45	3	9.6
Ty Thompson	24	31	77%	297	4	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mar'Keise Irving	186	1180	11	6.3	56
Jordan James	107	759	11	7.1	37
Bo Nix	54	234	6	4.3	44
Noah Whittington	20	146	2	7.3	41

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Troy Franklin	81	1383	14	17.1	84
Tez Johnson (Tr)	86	1182	10	13.7	77
Traeshon Holden (Tr)	37	452	6	12.2	63
Gary Bryant Jr. (Tr)	30	442	4	14.7	71

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Evan Williams (Tr)	82	5	5	2	1
Jeffrey Bassa	71	4	0	12	1
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	70	5	1	3	7
Steve Stephens	56	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Dorlus	25	7	5	7	7
Evan Williams (Tr)	82	5	5	2	1
Popo Aumavae	18	3	3	3	0
Jordan Burch (Tr)	34	8	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Dorlus	25	7	5	7	7
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	70	5	1	3	7
Nikko Reed (Tr)	25	2	1	0	7