USC at Oregon - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (10:30 PM EST)
Oregon -12.5 (78.5) (-1050) Open: -2.0
Oregon 36 - USC: 27 (Pac-12)

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (22 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORE 2nd straight Home Game
ORE is playing their 5th straight game
USC is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -19.5 (SP+ ORE -17)
Projected Score: USC: 23 - ORE: 43 (55)
ORE Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
USC Travel: 740 miles

Ducks (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Dan Lanning (13 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.3 - 1.7 (#2)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Oregon's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oregon vs Portland State	-48.0	64.5	W 81 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon at Texas Tech	-4.5	70.0	W 38 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon vs Hawai'i	-38.5	67.5	W 55 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Oregon vs Colorado	-21.0	70.0	W 42 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Oregon at Stanford	-27.0	59.5	W 42 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Oregon at Washington	+3.0	67.0	L 33 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oregon vs Washington State	-19.5	60.5	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/28	Oregon at Utah	-6.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Oregon vs California	-26.5	61.5	W 63 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Oregon vs USC	-12.5	78.5	W 36 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oregon at Arizona State	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Oregon vs Oregon State	-14.0	61.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 12/1	Oregon vs Washington	-9.0	67.0	L 31 - 34	U	N
Mon 1/1	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5	71.5	W 45 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	.4	51%	30.2	53%	3.52	171	50%	335	4.68	.29	48%	24.1	53%	46%	4.54	58	0.5	2.1
ORE	.38	56%	34.9	58%	3.59	216	54%	285	4.4	.22	45%	19.4	45%	46%	4.15	57.2	0.9	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	14	30.2	21.8	51.3%	4.68	0.5	26	506	171	335	5.1	44%	56%	53%	50%	11%	.4
ORE Defense	13	19.4	19.6	45.3%	4.15	2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	45%	46%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	14	24.1	23.8	48.4%	4.54	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	53%	46%	17%	.29
ORE Offense	13	34.9	35.7	55.9%	4.4	0.9	26	501	216	285	5.5	53%	47%	58%	54%	11%	.38

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	14	31:54	25.7	54%	68%	6.3	58	0.5	2.1	5.5	2.9	3	28.2
Oregon	13	31:21	26.2	46%	63%	6.8	57.2	0.9	2	3.9	1.3	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	14	44%	53%	33.8	171.1	5.1	30	.3	3.52	83%	7%	0.97
ORE Defense	13	43%	45%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.02	68%	8%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	14	44%	53%	-	-	-	-	.36	3.45	78%	10%	1.14
ORE Offense	13	53%	58%	39.1	215.7	5.5	34	.37	3.59	83%	6%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	14	56%	50%	24.6	36.7	335.3	9.1	13.7	43	5	.48	1.6	28%	36%	.49	4%	2.2
ORE Defense	13	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.28	1.4	30%	37%	.48	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	14	55%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.27	1.5	29%	36%	.42	7%	2
ORE Offense	13	47%	54%	23.7	33.2	284.8	8.6	12	30	9	.4	1.4	25%	38%	.48	4%	1.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 780.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81 Oregon: 28.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9 Oregon: 25.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.15 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
2023 Talent Rating: 1080.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Oregon's 2023 Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70
Oregon's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 43
USC 23

Projected Total Points: 55

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Oregon's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Oregon	36	USC	27	Oregon	Oregon -12.5	USC	78.5	Under
2020	12/18	USC	24	Oregon	31	Oregon	USC -3	Oregon	65.5	Under
2019	11/02	USC	24	Oregon	56	Oregon	Oregon -3.5	Oregon	59.5	Over
2016	11/05	USC	45	Oregon	20	USC	USC -14	USC	76.5	Under
2015	11/21	Oregon	48	USC	28	Oregon	Oregon -2.5	Oregon	72.0	Over
2012	11/03	USC	51	Oregon	62	Oregon
2011	11/19	Oregon	35	USC	38	USC
2010	10/30	USC	32	Oregon	53	Oregon
2009	10/31	Oregon	47	USC	20	Oregon
2008	10/04	USC	44	Oregon	10	USC
2007	10/27	Oregon	24	USC	17	Oregon
2006	11/11	USC	35	Oregon	10	USC
2005	09/24	Oregon	13	USC	45	USC
2002	10/26	Oregon	33	USC	44	USC
2001	09/22	Oregon	24	USC	22	Oregon
2000	10/13	USC	17	Oregon	28	Oregon

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	10	3	2 Overs
USC	6	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 8	2 - 3	2 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 8	3 - 2	1 - 0	2 - 2

(#23) USC Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.81 #23
Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109
Talent Rating: 780.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90

Team Profile

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USC Ratings Matchup Oregon

Power #23

Off #7

Def #119

#18

Talent #33

SP+ #38

SP+ Off #3

SP+ Def #109

#19

Rematch from Week 11
Oregon -12.5 (78.5)
Oregon won vs USC this year (36-27)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat USC in 2023 (36-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 48°

Team Information
Injuries: USC | ORE
Depth Chart: USC | ORE
Rosters: USC | ORE

(#2) Oregon Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 28.15 #2
Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19
Talent Rating: 1080.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70

Team Profile

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USC's OC Josh Henson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Malachi Nelson	12	17	71%	128	0	1	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG
Darwin Barlow	9	62	6.9	14
Raleek Brown	9	42	4.7	14
Mario Williams	2	12	6.0	13
Malachi Nelson	2	-11	-5.5	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mario Williams	48	831	4	17.3	68
Dorian Singer (Tr)	53	702	1	13.2	40
Jude Wolfe	18	161	2	8.9	32
Darwin Barlow	3	31	0	10.3	17

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	72	3	0	0	3
Jaylin Smith	58	4	0	0	2
Domani Jackson	51	2	0	1	7
Chris Thompson Jr.	44	5	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Romello Height	34	7	3	4	0
Korey Foreman	23	5	2	4	1
Stanley Ta'ufo'ou	30	4	2	0	0
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	27	2	1	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Domani Jackson	51	2	0	1	7
Ceyair Wright	39	1	1	1	6
DeCarlos Nicholson	27	0	0	0	5

Oregon's OC Will Stein

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tez Johnson (Tr)	0	1	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Dante Dowdell	143	614	12	4.3	38
Jordan Burch (Tr)	1	36	0	36.0	36
Kris Hutson	4	28	1	7.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson (Tr)	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden (Tr)	45	718	5	16.0	59
Kris Hutson	55	691	2	12.6	59
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

Oregon's DC Tosh Lupoi

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trikweze Bridges	68	1	0	0	5
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	58	3	0	0	0
Jeffrey Bassa	51	3	2	2	2
Bryan Addison	43	1	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Burch (Tr)	29	11	9	4	5
Jake Shipley	24	3	2	4	0
Jeffrey Bassa	51	3	2	2	2
Jestin Jacobs (Tr)	27	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Dontae Manning	18	1	6
Trikweze Bridges	68	1	5
Bryan Addison	43	1	5