Louisville at NC State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackNC State logo
Friday, September 29th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -3.5 (56.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Louisville 13 - NC State: 10  (ACC)

 
Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (24 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NCST is playing their 5th straight game
LOU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -0.5   (SP+ LOU -1.5)

Projected Score: LOU: 27 - NCST: 26 (53)
LOU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 422 miles
Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 26 - 21 (30 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-7.049.5W 39 - 34ON
Thu 9/7 Louisville vs Murray State-43.555.5W 56 - 0OY
Sat 9/16 Louisville vs Indiana-10.051.0W 21 - 14UN
Sat 9/23 Louisville vs Boston College-14.053.0W 56 - 28OY
Fri 9/29 Louisville at NC State-3.556.5W 13 - 10UN
Sat 10/7 Louisville vs Notre Dame+6.553.0W 33 - 20UY
Sat 10/14 Louisville at Pittsburgh-7.544.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Louisville vs Duke-5.047.0W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Louisville vs Virginia Tech-9.548.5W 34 - 3UY
Thu 11/9 Louisville vs Virginia-20.549.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/18 Louisville at Miami+1.546.5W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Louisville vs Kentucky-7.547.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 12/2 Louisville vs Florida State+3.551.0L 6 - 16UN
Wed 12/27 Louisville vs USC-4.558.0L 28 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
NC State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 NC State at UConn-14.547.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 9/9 NC State vs Notre Dame+7.049.5L 24 - 45ON
Sat 9/16 NC State vs VMI-42.551.0W 45 - 7ON
Fri 9/22 NC State at Virginia-8.547.5W 24 - 21UN
Fri 9/29 NC State vs Louisville+3.556.5L 10 - 13UY
Sat 10/7 NC State vs Marshall-6.544.0W 48 - 41OY
Sat 10/14 NC State at Duke+3.544.0L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 NC State vs Clemson+9.544.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 11/4 NC State vs Miami+6.544.0W 20 - 6UY
Sat 11/11 NC State at Wake Forest+0.542.5W 26 - 6UY
Sat 11/18 NC State at Virginia Tech+2.540.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 11/25 NC State vs North Carolina+2.055.0W 39 - 20OY
Thu 12/28 NC State vs Kansas State+3.048.5L 19 - 28UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#46 (.23)48% (11)30.751% (12)3.07 (80)17947% (26)2364.04 (53)#12 (.08)36% (13)21.335% (14)37% (16)3.9 (77)48.61.41.4
NCST#89 (.15)40% (100)26.240% (96)3.11 (68)15739% (96)1944.11 (47)#16 (.1)39% (34)20.839% (34)40% (40)3.77 (66)46.31.21.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1430.72448.4%4.041.4214151792364.751%48%51%47%16%.23
NCST Defense1320.821.338.8%3.771.9 - - - - - 44%54%39%40%19%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1421.326.335.8%3.91.4 - - - - - 47%53%35%37%19%.08
NCST Offense1326.23039.5%4.111.2193501571944.352%48%40%39%18%.15

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1432:1320.837%54%5.648.61.41.45.42.3130.8
NC State1332:2718.540%60%5.846.31.21.95.52.5330.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1451% (57)51% (12)38.1178.54.731 (17).2 (43)3.07 (80)73% (78)10% (64)0.93 (101)
NCST Defense1344% (11)39% (34) - - - - .12 (55)2.88 (31)66% (27)11% (32)1.07 (103)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1447% (26)35% (14) - - - - -.01 (14)2.4 (3)68% (37)12% (26)1 (68)
NCST Offense1352% (52)40% (96)36.8156.64.319 (69).13 (83)3.11 (68)80% (20)12% (106)0.93 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1448% (74)47% (26)1929.1236.48.112.422 (61)12 (85).3 (64)1.6 (82)26% (6)37% (18).45 (33)6% (74)2.1 (42)
NCST Defense1354% (122)40% (40) - - - - - - 17 (3).14 (15)1.5 (28)36% (17)29% (50).2 (19)7% (25)1.9 (16)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1453% (111)37% (16) - - - - - - 13 (26).19 (23)1.8 (123)37% (7)23% (3).24 (35)7% (32)2.4 (131)
NCST Offense1348% (80)39% (96)17.229.2193.86.711.319 (78)12 (85).2 (95)1.6 (67)34% (102)27% (101).27 (90)6% (72)2 (92)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 10.32 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.32   NC State: 10.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.8   NC State: 9.4




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.03 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 27
NC State 26


Total Points: 53

NC State Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 30
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/29NC State10Louisville13LouisvilleLouisville -3.5NC State56.5Under
202211/19Louisville25NC State10LouisvilleLouisville -4Louisville43.0Under
202110/30NC State28Louisville13NC StateNC State -6NC State57.0Under
201911/16NC State20Louisville34LouisvilleLouisville -4.5Louisville52.0Over
201811/17Louisville10NC State52NC StateNC State -16NC State65.0Under
201710/05NC State39Louisville25NC StateLouisville -3.5NC State67.0Under
201610/22Louisville54NC State13LouisvilleLouisville -20Louisville65.0Over
201510/03NC State13Louisville20LouisvilleNC State -5Louisville47.5Under
201410/18Louisville30NC State18LouisvilleLouisville -14.5NC State0
201112/27NC State31Louisville24NC State
200709/29NC State10Louisville29Louisville
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State452 Overs
Louisville746 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 55 - 43 - 22 - 2
Road Teams5 - 64 - 52 - 22 - 3

(#21) Louisville Info
Power Rating: 10.32 #21
Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50


Louisville has won 4 straight
Louisville has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 1 (1 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Louisville Highlights
Louisville has Really Good Running Game (#113)
Louisville offense is efficent (#77)
Louisville has a really good defense (#17)
Louisville has a good run defense (#25)
Louisville has a good pass defense (#17)
Louisville Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#69)
Louisville Defensive Line is very good (#70)
Louisville Front 7 is disruptive (#46)
Louisville defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Louisville Deficiencies
Louisville offense is not Explosive (#6)
Louisville Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#132)
Louisville gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#11)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNCSTLOU
OverallOver#66#29
OffenseOff#93#38
DefenseDef#36#19
Special TeamsST#47#77
PassingPass#64#31
RushingRush#66#10
Run BlockRBLK#68#66
Pass BlockPBLK#62#30
Route RunningWR Rt#103#60
TacklingTkl#9#44
Run DefenseR Def#12#29
Pass Rush DefPRush#75#18
Coverage DefCov#75#50

Rematch from Week 5
Louisville 3.5 (56.5)
Louisville won at NC State this year (13-10)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat NC State in 2023 (13-10)
Louisville beat NC State in 2022 (25-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LOU | NCST
Depth Chart: LOU | NCST
Rosters: LOU | NCST
(#34) NC State Info
Power Rating: 10.03 #34
Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60


NC State has won 2 straight
NC State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 2 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

NC State Highlights
NC State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

NC State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#42)
NC State Secondary is very good (#80)
NC State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

NC State Deficiencies
NC State offense is really bad (#67)


  
Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)25639565%320421128.1
Brock Domann55100%44008.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jawhar Jordan1811128136.274
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)132810116.173
Maurice Turner6228414.641
Keyjuan Brown116515.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)63858613.685
Chris Bell29407214.048
Kevin Coleman Jr.24332213.858
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce20312415.655

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn872152
Devin Neal (Tr)723006
Cam'Ron Kelly645012
Jaylin Alderman577202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Gillotte41121060
Mason Reiger206532
Ramon Puryear196430
Jared Dawson134311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Riley4920010
Jarvis Brownlee301006
Devin Neal (Tr)723006

NC State's OC Robert Anae
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)16026261%17831176.8
MJ Morris6311356%719756.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)14366574.743
Kevin Concepcion4132007.865
Kendrick Raphael6731114.631
Delbert Mimms III9628282.918
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Concepcion718391011.872
Keyon Lesane2824708.838
Dacari Collins (Tr)14210215.038
Brad Rozner18208211.621

View NC State's Full Roster
NC State's DC Tony Gibson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Payton Wilson138186106
Jaylon Scott7562103
Sean Brown665245
Devan Boykin543011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davin Vann4387111
Payton Wilson138186106
Red Hibbler126631
Brandon Cleveland285310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aydan White3721010
Payton Wilson138186106
Sean Brown665245