Stanford at USC - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
USC -28.5 (70.5) (0) Open: 0.0
USC 56 - Stanford: 10 (Pac-12)

Cardinal (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 21 - 38 (24 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.4 - 9.6 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

STAN 2nd straight Road Game
USC 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: USC -24.5 (SP+ USC -20)
Projected Score: STAN: 22 - USC: 47 (69)
USC Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
STAN Travel: 321 miles

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 42 - 34 (45 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
STAN Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Stanford's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Stanford at Hawai'i	-2.0	54.0	W 37 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Stanford at USC	+28.5	70.5	L 10 - 56	U	N
Sat 9/16	Stanford vs Sacramento State	-7.0	60.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Stanford vs Arizona	+13.0	60.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Stanford vs Oregon	+27.0	59.5	L 6 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13	Stanford at Colorado	+13.0	59.0	W 46 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Stanford vs UCLA	+17.0	52.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/28	Stanford vs Washington	+27.5	62.0	L 33 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Stanford at Washington State	+13.0	59.5	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Stanford at Oregon State	+21.5	51.5	L 17 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/18	Stanford vs California	+6.5	52.5	L 15 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Stanford vs Notre Dame	+26.0	50.5	L 23 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
STAN	#114 (.1)	38% (114)	20.6	41% (95)	2.61 (130)	119	36% (114)	233	3.4 (101)	#133 (.35)	51% (133)	37.7	56% (133)	48% (129)	5.22 (133)	59.1	1.2	1
USC	#6 (.39)	47% (15)	41.8	48% (20)	3.19 (52)	134	47% (21)	333	4.99 (4)	#122 (.29)	46% (121)	34.4	49% (125)	43% (91)	3.55 (49)	64.9	1.3	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
STAN	#114 (.1)	40% (101)		41% (95)	2.72 (116)	134	39% (98)	191	3.67 (92)	#120 (.27)	47% (119)		45% (92)	48% (124)	4.53 (124)	49	1.8	1.3
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
STAN Offense	12	20.6	24	37.6%	3.4	1.2	20	352	119	233	3.4	42%	57%	41%	36%	21%	.1
USC Defense	13	34.4	31	45.8%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	43%	14%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
STAN Defense	12	37.7	38.4	51.4%	5.22	1	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	56%	48%	11%	.35
USC Offense	13	41.8	45	47.5%	4.99	1.3	22	467	134	333	4.8	41%	59%	48%	47%	14%	.39

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Stanford	12	31:16	19.5	36%	33%	6.3	59.1	1.2	1	4.3	1.9	0	27.2
USC	13	27:33	22.5	43%	61%	7.3	64.9	1.3	1.2	5.5	1.9	3	30.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
STAN Offense	12	42% (114)	41% (95)	34.5	118.8	3.4	15 (100)	.06 (114)	2.61 (130)	71% (90)	13% (122)	0.99 (74)
USC Defense	13	51% (83)	49% (125)	-	-	-	-	.29 (128)	3.31 (110)	73% (64)	10% (64)	1.07 (100)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
STAN Defense	12	45% (13)	56% (133)	-	-	-	-	.25 (120)	3.45 (124)	76% (87)	7% (129)	0.9 (25)
USC Offense	13	41% (123)	48% (20)	27.8	133.6	4.8	33 (8)	.29 (8)	3.19 (52)	78% (28)	10% (65)	1.2 (2)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
STAN Offense	12	57% (17)	36% (114)	19.4	35.6	233	6.6	12	11 (117)	10 (56)	.16 (106)	1.5 (84)	36% (120)	29% (77)	.28 (87)	8% (126)	2 (71)
USC Defense	13	49% (60)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.32 (98)	1.7 (90)	31% (87)	34% (115)	.4 (108)	4% (129)	2.1 (92)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
STAN Defense	12	55% (124)	48% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.45 (130)	1.7 (89)	29% (125)	41% (133)	.66 (133)	4% (130)	2.1 (93)
USC Offense	13	59% (10)	47% (21)	24.2	35.5	333	9.4	13.8	37 (4)	6 (14)	.47 (14)	1.7 (20)	29% (22)	37% (14)	.65 (4)	4% (15)	2.3 (12)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -13.77 #129
Stanford's Offense Rating: 12.41 #107
Stanford's Defense Rating: 22.01 #133
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #36
Stanford's 2023 Expected Record: 2.40 - 9.60
Stanford's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #109
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #94
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -13.77 USC: 11.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -12.3 USC: 7.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 11.355 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Stanford Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 37.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

Stanford's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
USC 47
Stanford 22

Total Points: 69

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 43
Stanford 24

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
USC 41
Stanford 28

Total Points: 69

USC Scoring
Offense: 41.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45
Defense: 34.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	USC	56	Stanford	10	USC -28.5	USC	70.5	Under
2022	09/10	Stanford	28	USC	41	USC -9.5	USC	66.5	Over
2021	09/11	USC	28	Stanford	42	USC -17	Stanford	53.0	Over
2019	09/07	USC	45	Stanford	20	USC -3	USC	43.0	Over
2018	09/08	Stanford	17	USC	3	Stanford -4.5	Stanford	54.5	Under
2017	12/01	USC	31	Stanford	28	USC -3.5	Stanford	58.5	Over
2017	09/09	USC	42	Stanford	24	USC -4	USC	54.5	Over
2016	09/17	Stanford	27	USC	10	Stanford -6.5	Stanford	48.5	Under
2015	09/19	USC	31	Stanford	41	USC -8	Stanford	51.0	Over
2015	12/05	Stanford	41	USC	22	Stanford -4	Stanford	59.0	Over
2014	09/06	Stanford	10	USC	13	Stanford -4	USC	0
2013	11/16	USC	20	Stanford	17	Stanford -3	USC	0
2012	09/15	Stanford	21	USC	14
2011	10/29	USC	48	Stanford	56
2010	10/09	Stanford	37	USC	35
2009	11/14	USC	21	Stanford	55
2008	11/15	Stanford	23	USC	45
2007	10/06	USC	23	Stanford	24
2006	11/04	Stanford	0	USC	42
2005	11/05	USC	51	Stanford	21
2004	09/25	Stanford	28	USC	31
2003	10/11	USC	44	Stanford	21
2002	11/09	Stanford	17	USC	49
2001	09/29	USC	16	Stanford	21
2000	10/20	Stanford	32	USC	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	13	6	7 Overs
Stanford	12	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	7 - 5	6 - 4	1 - 1
Road Teams	12 - 13	5 - 7	1 - 1	4 - 6

(#129) STAN at (#23) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	STAN	USC
Power RatePwr	#129	#23
SP+SP+	#109	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#133	#29
OffenseOff	#118	#16
DefenseDef	#134	#80
Spec TeamsST	#80	#86
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#36	#14

Stanford Injury Report

USC Injury Report

Stanford on Offense


CategoryCat	STAN Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#118	#80
SuccessSuc	#114	#121
ExplosiveExp	#68	#96
PPAPPA	#114	#122
PowerPwr	#107	#119
SP+SP+	#94	#109
Pts POPPO	#101	#49
HavocHav	#128	#116

Stanford Run Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#121	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#95	#125
Run ExplRExp	#74	#100
PPAExp	#114	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#130	#110
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#79
TackleTak	-	#77

Stanford Pass Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#90
PPAExp	#106	#98
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#121	#26
F7 HavocF7	#122	#64
DB HavocDB	#126	#129

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	STAN Def
Perf GradePerf	#16	#134
SuccessSuc	#15	#133
ExplosiveExp	#2	#63
PPAPPA	#6	#133
PowerPwr	#7	#133
SP+SP+	#3	#117
Pts POPPO	#4	#133
HavocHav	#31	#133

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	STAN Def
Run GameRun	#10	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#20	#133
Run ExplRExp	#2	#25
PPAExp	#8	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#88	#98
TackleTak	-	#76

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	STAN Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#89
PPAExp	#14	#130
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#20	#132
F7 HavocF7	#65	#129
DB HavocDB	#15	#130

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

STAN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77°

Rematch from Week 2
USC -28.5 (70.5)
USC won vs Stanford this year (56-10)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Stanford in 2023 (56-10)
USC beat Stanford in 2022 (41-28)

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels	191	327	58%	2247	11	8	6.9
Justin Lamson (Tr)	38	88	43%	504	0	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Lamson (Tr)	120	334	5	2.8	49
Ashton Daniels	110	296	3	2.7	24
E.J. Smith	53	216	1	4.1	34
Casey Filkins	38	215	1	5.7	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elic Ayomanor	62	1013	6	16.3	97
Tiger Bachmeier	36	409	2	11.4	41
Sam Roush	28	288	0	10.3	31
E.J. Smith	33	242	0	7.3	53

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gaethan Bernadel (Tr)	81	3	1	4	1
Tristan Sinclair	65	5	1	4	0
Collin Wright	51	4	1	0	4
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey	31	6	5	2	0
Anthony Franklin	27	6	3	4	1
Tevarua Tafiti	46	5	3	9	1
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zahran Manley	28	2	0	4
Collin Wright	51	4	1	4
Alaka'i Gilman	45	0	0	3

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3