Washington at USC - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Washington -3.0 (76.0) (-165) Open: -6.0 | 76.5
Washington 52 - USC: 42 (Pac-12)

Huskies (14 - 1) (7 - 7 - 1)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (14 - 2)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (30 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 5.1 (#14)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WASH 2nd straight Road Game
USC is playing their 7th straight game
WASH is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Washington -5.5 (SP+ WASH -10.5)
Projected Score: WASH: 36 - USC: 30 (66)
WASH Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
WASH Travel: 965 miles

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WASH Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Washington's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Washington vs Boise State	-14.0	59.0	W 56 - 19	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Washington vs Tulsa	-34.0	66.5	W 43 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/16	Washington at Michigan State	-14.5	57.0	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Washington vs California	-21.0	55.5	W 59 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Washington at Arizona	-20.0	66.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Washington vs Oregon	-3.0	67.0	W 36 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/21	Washington vs Arizona State	-28.0	59.5	W 15 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/28	Washington at Stanford	-27.5	62.0	W 42 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Washington at USC	-3.0	76.0	W 52 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Washington vs Utah	-9.5	48.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/18	Washington at Oregon State	+1.5	62.5	W 22 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Washington vs Washington State	-16.0	68.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 12/1	Washington vs Oregon	+9.0	67.0	W 34 - 31	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Washington vs Texas	+3.0	61.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Mon 1/8	Washington vs Michigan	+5.5	55.5	L 13 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Washington's Schedule

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WASH	.37	52%	34.1	51%	3.32	146	52%	370	4.82	.24	44%	18.7	47%	43%	3.97	60.1	0.8	1
USC	.4	51%	35.8	53%	3.52	171	50%	335	4.68	.29	48%	23	53%	46%	4.54	58	0.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WASH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WASH Offense	13	34.1	29.6	51.7%	4.82	0.8	27	515	146	370	4.7	38%	62%	51%	52%	9%	.37
USC Defense	14	23	17.9	48.4%	4.54	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	53%	46%	17%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WASH Defense	13	18.7	19	44.3%	3.97	1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	47%	43%	14%	.24
USC Offense	14	35.8	43	51.3%	4.68	0.5	26	506	171	335	5.1	44%	56%	53%	50%	11%	.4

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Washington	13	31:20	27.2	57%	55%	6.8	60.1	0.8	1	5.5	2.8	0	30.2
USC	14	31:54	25.7	54%	68%	6.3	58	0.5	2.1	5.5	2.9	3	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WASH Offense	13	38%	51%	30.9	145.6	4.7	33	.3	3.32	75%	4%	1.08
USC Defense	14	44%	53%	-	-	-	-	.36	3.45	78%	10%	1.14

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WASH Defense	13	47%	47%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.22	71%	10%	0.9
USC Offense	14	44%	53%	33.8	171.1	5.1	30	.3	3.52	83%	7%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WASH Offense	13	62%	52%	28.7	44.2	369.8	8.4	12.9	32	9	.44	1.4	29%	45%	.59	5%	1.9
USC Defense	14	55%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.27	1.5	29%	36%	.42	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WASH Defense	13	53%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.36	1.7	32%	34%	.45	4%	2.1
USC Offense	14	56%	50%	24.6	36.7	335.3	9.1	13.7	43	5	.48	1.6	28%	36%	.49	4%	2.2

Washington's Power Ratings
Washington's Power Rating: 15.14 #12
Washington's Offense Rating: 27.07 #5
Washington's Defense Rating: 8.39 #52
2023 Talent Rating: 751.12 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 33% #23
Washington's 2023 Expected Record: 9.90 - 5.10
Washington's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.6 #11
Washington's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.5 #4
Washington's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #45

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Washington: 15.14 USC: 11.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Washington: 18.6 USC: 7.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 11.355 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 896.41 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Washington Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.6
Defense: 18.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 19

Washington's 2023 Record
Record: 14 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Washington 36
USC 30

Projected Total Points: 66

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Washington	26	USC	21	USC -2	Washington	55.0	Under
2023	11/04	USC	42	Washington	52	Washington -3.0	Washington	76.0	Over
2019	09/28	Washington	28	USC	14	Washington -12.5	Washington	60.5	Under
2016	11/12	Washington	13	USC	26	Washington -10	USC	59.5	Under
2015	10/08	USC	12	Washington	17	USC -17	Washington	59.5	Under
2012	10/13	Washington	14	USC	24
2011	11/12	USC	40	Washington	17
2010	10/02	USC	31	Washington	32
2009	09/19	Washington	16	USC	13
2008	11/01	USC	56	Washington	0
2007	09/29	Washington	24	USC	27
2006	10/07	USC	26	Washington	20
2005	10/22	Washington	24	USC	51
2004	10/23	USC	38	Washington	0
2003	10/25	Washington	23	USC	43
2002	10/19	USC	41	Washington	21
2001	10/06	Washington	27	USC	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	10	1	1 Overs
Washington	7	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 8	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 9	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#12) WASH at (#23) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WASH	USC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#12	#23
SP+SP+	#11	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#13	#29
OffenseOff	#4	#16
DefenseDef	#42	#80
Spec TeamsST	#15	#86
TalentTal	#26	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#23	#14

Washington Injury Report

USC Injury Report

Washington on Offense


CategoryCat	WASH Off	USC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#80
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#5	#119
SP+SP+	#4	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Washington Run Game


CategoryCat	WASH Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#39	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#40	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

Washington Pass Game


CategoryCat	WASH Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#3	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#17	#26
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	WASH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#16	#42
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#7	#52
SP+SP+	#3	#45
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	WASH Def
Run GameRun	#10	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#109

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	WASH Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#23
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#20	#27
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

WASH 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Washington 3.0 (76.0)
Washington won at USC this year (52-42)

Previous Matchups
Washington beat USC in 2024 (26-21)
Washington beat USC in 2023 (52-42)

WASH's OC Ryan Grubb (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Penix Jr.	363	556	65%	4903	36	11	8.8
Dylan Morris	9	14	64%	224	1	1	16.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dillon Johnson (Tr)	233	1195	16	5.1	53
Will Nixon	33	201	1	6.1	21
Tybo Rogers	44	184	0	4.2	22
Germie Bernard (Tr)	13	43	2	3.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rome Odunze	92	1640	13	17.8	52
Ja'Lynn Polk	69	1159	9	16.8	92
Jalen McMillan	45	559	5	12.4	45
Jack Westover	46	433	4	9.4	28

View Washington's Full Roster

WASH's DC William Inge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dominique Hampton	98	0	0	0	6
Edefuan Ulofoshio	90	8	3	0	2
Carson Bruener	80	2	0	1	3
Alphonzo Tuputala	64	2	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bralen Trice	46	11	7	15	2
Zion Tupuola-Fetui	29	5	4	2	0
Edefuan Ulofoshio	90	8	3	0	2
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	44	5	2	0	13

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	44	5	2	0	13
Dominique Hampton	98	0	0	0	6
Mishael Powell	38	3	0	2	6

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3