UCLA at USC - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
USC -6 (65.5) (-218) Open: -12.0
UCLA 38 - USC: 20 (Pac-12)

Bruins (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chip Kelly (30 - 29)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (17 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USC is playing their 9th straight game
UCLA is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: USC -4.5 (SP+ -0)
Projected Score: UCLA: 28 - USC: 32 (60)
USC Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
UCLA Travel: 12 miles

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCLA Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCLA's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UCLA vs Coastal Carolina	-15.5	66.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/9	UCLA at San Diego State	-13.0	49.0	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/16	UCLA vs North Carolina Central	-35.0	60.5	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCLA at Utah	+3.0	50.5	L 7 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	UCLA vs Washington State	-3.0	60.0	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	UCLA at Oregon State	+3.5	53.5	L 24 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/21	UCLA at Stanford	-17.0	52.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCLA vs Colorado	-14.0	60.0	W 28 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/4	UCLA at Arizona	-2.5	50.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCLA vs Arizona State	-14.0	45.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/18	UCLA at USC	+6.0	65.5	W 38 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCLA vs California	-9.5	50.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 12/16	UCLA vs Boise State	-6.5	46.0	W 35 - 22	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA	.37	54%	18.2	57%	3.73	238	52%	265	4.5	.23	47%	33.4	48%	46%	4.21	52.5	1.5	1.8
USC	.4	51%	35.8	53%	3.52	171	50%	335	4.68	.29	48%	23	53%	46%	4.54	58	0.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Offense	13	18.2	16.8	54%	4.5	1.5	26	504	238	265	6	51%	49%	57%	52%	12%	.37
USC Defense	14	23	17.9	48.4%	4.54	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	53%	46%	17%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Defense	13	33.4	32.2	46.8%	4.21	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	48%	46%	12%	.23
USC Offense	14	35.8	43	51.3%	4.68	0.5	26	506	171	335	5.1	44%	56%	53%	50%	11%	.4

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCLA	13	27:21	25.8	51%	58%	6.5	52.5	1.5	1.8	4.3	2.2	1	29.4
USC	14	31:54	25.7	54%	68%	6.3	58	0.5	2.1	5.5	2.9	3	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Offense	13	51%	57%	39.5	238.4	6	36	.39	3.73	85%	8%	1.04
USC Defense	14	44%	53%	-	-	-	-	.36	3.45	78%	10%	1.14

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Defense	13	44%	48%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.33	84%	8%	0.89
USC Offense	14	44%	53%	33.8	171.1	5.1	30	.3	3.52	83%	7%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Offense	13	49%	52%	22.4	32.2	265.2	8.2	11.9	29	12	.38	1.5	26%	41%	.48	5%	2
USC Defense	14	55%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.27	1.5	29%	36%	.42	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Defense	13	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.3	1.4	29%	31%	.37	5%	2.2
USC Offense	14	56%	50%	24.6	36.7	335.3	9.1	13.7	43	5	.48	1.6	28%	36%	.49	4%	2.2

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 6.08 #33
UCLA's Offense Rating: 12.57 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 1.17 #11
2023 Talent Rating: 752.60 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #26
UCLA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50
UCLA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #56
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 6.08 USC: 11.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 7.9 USC: 7.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 11.355 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 896.41 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

UCLA's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
USC 32
UCLA 28

Projected Total Points: 60

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	USC	29	UCLA	10	USC -21.0	UCLA	59.0	Under
2024	11/23	UCLA	13	USC	19	USC -5	USC	53.0	Under
2023	11/18	USC	20	UCLA	38	USC -6	UCLA	65.5	Under
2022	11/19	UCLA	45	USC	48	USC -2.5	USC	76.5	Over
2021	11/20	USC	33	UCLA	62	UCLA -4.5	UCLA	66.5	Over
2020	12/12	UCLA	38	USC	43	USC -3.5	USC	64.0	Over
2019	11/23	USC	52	UCLA	35	USC -12.5	USC	66.0	Over
2018	11/17	UCLA	34	USC	27	USC -2.5	UCLA	55.0	Over
2017	11/18	USC	28	UCLA	23	USC -14.5	UCLA	70.5	Under
2016	11/19	UCLA	14	USC	36	USC -10.5	USC	53.0	Under
2015	11/28	USC	40	UCLA	21	USC -3.5	USC	61.0	Push
2014	11/22	UCLA	38	USC	20	UCLA -3	UCLA	0
2013	11/30	USC	14	UCLA	35	USC -3.5	UCLA	0
2012	11/17	UCLA	38	USC	28
2011	11/26	USC	50	UCLA	0
2010	12/04	UCLA	14	USC	28
2009	11/28	USC	28	UCLA	7
2008	12/06	UCLA	7	USC	28
2007	12/01	USC	24	UCLA	7
2006	12/02	UCLA	13	USC	9
2005	12/03	USC	66	UCLA	19
2004	12/04	UCLA	24	USC	29
2003	11/22	USC	47	UCLA	22
2001	11/17	USC	27	UCLA	0
2000	11/17	UCLA	35	USC	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	18	6	5 Overs
UCLA	7	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 11	4 - 9	3 - 4	1 - 5
Road Teams	11 - 14	9 - 4	5 - 1	4 - 3

(#33) UCLA at (#23) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCLA	USC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#33	#23
SP+SP+	#38	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#26	#29
OffenseOff	#68	#16
DefenseDef	#7	#80
Spec TeamsST	#47	#86
TalentTal	#25	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#14

UCLA Injury Report

USC Injury Report

UCLA on Offense


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	USC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#68	#80
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#103	#119
SP+SP+	#56	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCLA Run Game


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#36	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

UCLA Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCLA Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#99	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#115	#26
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	UCLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#16	#7
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#7	#11
SP+SP+	#3	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#10	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#71

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#20	#1
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

UCLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
USC -6.0 (65.5)
UCLA won at USC this year (38-20)

Previous Matchups
USC beat UCLA last year (29-10)
USC beat UCLA in 2024 (19-13)
UCLA beat USC in 2023 (38-20)

UCLA's OC Chip Kelly (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dante Moore	114	213	54%	1610	11	9	7.6
Ethan Garbers	98	146	67%	1136	11	3	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Steele (Tr)	167	846	6	5.1	42
TJ Harden	156	827	8	5.3	62
Collin Schlee (Tr)	42	425	3	10.1	57
Anthony Adkins (Tr)	30	178	1	5.9	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Logan Loya	59	655	5	11.1	49
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)	36	597	4	16.6	62
Moliki Matavao (Tr)	14	283	2	20.2	35
Kyle Ford (Tr)	22	236	1	10.7	37

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5
Kain Medrano	56	7	2	4	2
Oluwafemi Oladejo (Tr)	53	2	0	0	3
Kenny Churchwell III	50	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Laiatu Latu	48	21	12	10	2
Gabriel Murphy	39	17	9	8	2
Grayson Murphy	33	10	6	10	1
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylin Davies	43	1	0	0	6
Darius Muasau	75	11	3	1	5
Kamari Ramsey	40	3	0	2	4

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3