Louisville at Pittsburgh - 2023 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals at Pittsburgh Panthers

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (6:30 PM EDT)
Louisville -7.5 (44.5) (-290) Open: -8.0 | 47.5
Pittsburgh 38 - Louisville: 21 (ACC)

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (24 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Light Rain Predicted
Wind: 12.7 MPH
PITT coming off BYE
LOU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -12 (SP+ LOU -17.5)
Projected Score: LOU: 29 - PITT: 17 (46)
LOU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 344 miles

Panthers (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (63 - 43)
Avg Score : 20 - 27 (27 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#100)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LOU Players
PITT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Pittsburgh's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Pittsburgh vs Wofford	-37.5	49.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati	-6.5	44.5	L 21 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/16	Pittsburgh at West Virginia	+2.5	48.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Pittsburgh vs North Carolina	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/30	Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	-3.0	40.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Pittsburgh vs Louisville	+7.5	44.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Pittsburgh at Wake Forest	-3.0	45.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/28	Pittsburgh at Notre Dame	+21.0	45.5	L 7 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/4	Pittsburgh vs Florida State	+21.5	50.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-4.5	37.5	L 13 - 28	O	N
Thu 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Boston College	-1.0	47.0	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Pittsburgh at Duke	+4.5	40.5	L 19 - 30	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	30.7	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.3	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4
PITT	#119 (.09)	38% (113)	20.2	41% (90)	2.86 (109)	102	35% (117)	216	3.46 (98)	#23 (.11)	39% (39)	27.3	39% (32)	41% (67)	3.41 (33)	64.4	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2
PITT	#91 (.15)	42% (85)		45% (56)	3.1 (53)	119	39% (97)	256	4.11 (49)	#35 (.12)	38% (25)		38% (20)	38% (38)	3.68 (57)	58.2	1.3	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	14	30.7	24	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23
PITT Defense	12	27.3	22.7	39.4%	3.41	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	41%	39%	41%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	14	21.3	26.3	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08
PITT Offense	12	20.2	26.5	37.7%	3.46	1.8	16	318	102	216	3.4	45%	54%	41%	35%	19%	.09

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8
Pittsburgh	12	27:36	16.3	31%	50%	7.8	64.4	1.8	1.3	6.9	2.5	2	26.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)
PITT Defense	12	58% (131)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	.03 (17)	2.91 (37)	62% (16)	12% (18)	0.98 (57)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)
PITT Offense	12	45% (100)	41% (90)	29.7	101.9	3.4	10 (124)	.06 (118)	2.86 (109)	75% (52)	11% (94)	0.89 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)
PITT Defense	12	41% (3)	41% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.27 (67)	1.7 (103)	32% (58)	30% (75)	.29 (58)	6% (85)	2.2 (111)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)
PITT Offense	12	54% (34)	35% (117)	16	30	216	7.2	13.5	17 (85)	12 (85)	.16 (109)	1.7 (36)	34% (103)	24% (122)	.17 (114)	8% (123)	2.2 (26)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 10.32 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.32 Pittsburgh: -1.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.8 Pittsburgh: -6.9

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: -1.67 #72
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 11.42 #115
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 6.46 #35
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Pittsburgh's 2023 Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10
Pittsburgh's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 29
Pittsburgh 17

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 27
Pittsburgh 17

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 26
Pittsburgh 24

Total Points: 50

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Pittsburgh's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Pittsburgh	27	Louisville	34	Louisville -3	Louisville	53.5	Over
2024	11/23	Louisville	37	Pittsburgh	9	Louisville -7	Louisville	57.0	Under
2023	10/14	Pittsburgh	38	Louisville	21	Louisville -7.5	Pittsburgh	44.5	Over
2022	10/22	Louisville	24	Pittsburgh	10	Louisville -1.5	Louisville	55.0	Under
2020	09/26	Pittsburgh	23	Louisville	20	Pittsburgh -3	Push	53.0	Under
2015	11/21	Pittsburgh	45	Louisville	34	Pittsburgh -1.5	Pittsburgh	48.5	Over
2012	10/13	Pittsburgh	35	Louisville	45
2011	11/12	Louisville	14	Pittsburgh	21
2010	10/30	Pittsburgh	20	Louisville	3
2009	10/02	Louisville	10	Pittsburgh	35
2008	11/08	Pittsburgh	41	Louisville	7
2007	10/27	Louisville	24	Pittsburgh	17
2006	11/25	Pittsburgh	24	Louisville	48
2005	11/03	Louisville	42	Pittsburgh	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Pittsburgh	7	2	3 Overs
Louisville	7	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	4 - 1	3 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 9	1 - 4	1 - 1	0 - 3

(#21) LOU at (#72) PITT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	PITT
Power RatePwr	#21	#72
SP+SP+	#24	#86
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#117
OffenseOff	#41	#127
DefenseDef	#23	#85
Spec TeamsST	#98	#73
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#43

Louisville Injury Report

Pittsburgh Injury Report

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	PITT Def
Perf GradePerf	#41	#85
SuccessSuc	#11	#39
ExplosiveExp	#105	#74
PPAPPA	#46	#23
PowerPwr	#44	#35
SP+SP+	#40	#58
Pts POPPO	#53	#33
HavocHav	#68	#36

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#13	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	#32
Run ExplRExp	#101	#57
PPAExp	#43	#17
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#16
TackleTak	-	#85

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#103
PPAExp	#64	#67
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#33	#121
F7 HavocF7	#64	#18
DB HavocDB	#74	#85

Pittsburgh on Offense


CategoryCat	PITT Off	LOU Def
Perf GradePerf	#127	#23
SuccessSuc	#113	#13
ExplosiveExp	#66	#122
PPAPPA	#119	#12
PowerPwr	#115	#16
SP+SP+	#106	#26
Pts POPPO	#98	#77
HavocHav	#114	#23

Pittsburgh Run Game


CategoryCat	PITT Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#77	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#14
Run ExplRExp	#117	#68
PPAExp	#118	#14
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#7
TackleTak	-	#50

Pittsburgh Pass Game


CategoryCat	PITT Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#124	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#123
PPAExp	#109	#23
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#93	#20
F7 HavocF7	#94	#26
DB HavocDB	#123	#32

Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 51° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Louisville 7.5 (44.5)
Pittsburgh won vs Louisville this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Pittsburgh last year (37-9)
Pittsburgh beat Louisville in 2023 (38-21)
Louisville beat Pittsburgh in 2022 (24-10)

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)	256	395	65%	3204	21	12	8.1
Brock Domann	5	5	100%	44	0	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jawhar Jordan	181	1128	13	6.2	74
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)	132	810	11	6.1	73
Maurice Turner	62	284	1	4.6	41
Keyjuan Brown	11	65	1	5.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)	63	858	6	13.6	85
Chris Bell	29	407	2	14.0	48
Kevin Coleman Jr.	24	332	2	13.8	58
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	20	312	4	15.6	55

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
TJ Quinn	87	2	1	5	2
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	0	0	6
Cam'Ron Kelly	64	5	0	1	2
Jaylin Alderman	57	7	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Gillotte	41	12	10	6	0
Mason Reiger	20	6	5	3	2
Ramon Puryear	19	6	4	3	0
Jared Dawson	13	4	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quincy Riley	49	2	10
Jarvis Brownlee	30	1	6
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	6

PITT's OC Frank Cignetti Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	94	184	51%	1179	7	8	6.4
Phil Jurkovec (Tr)	57	112	51%	818	6	3	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodney Hammond Jr.	118	547	4	4.6	66
C'Bo Flemister	98	367	2	3.7	38
Daniel Carter	28	134	2	4.8	22
Kenny Johnson	10	72	0	7.2	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerrod Means	41	721	6	17.6	75
Konata Mumpfield	44	576	5	13.1	82
Gavin Bartholomew	18	326	1	18.1	60
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)	28	316	0	11.3	31

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon (Tr)	105	1	0	0	1
Javon Mcintyre	85	4	0	0	7
Solomon Deshields	58	8	2	4	1
Bangally Kamara	53	7	2	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Samuel Okunlola	18	6	5	0	0
Shayne Simon	48	8	5	5	2
Dayon Hayes	45	11	4	6	4
Bam Brima	31	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
M.J. Devonshire	32	1	0	0	10
Javon Mcintyre	85	4	0	0	7
Dayon Hayes	45	11	4	6	4