Boston College at Louisville - 2023 Matchup Preview

Boston College Eagles at Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Louisville -14 (53.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 56 - Boston College: 28 (ACC)

Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Hafley (16 - 22)
Avg Score : 25 - 28 (25 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LOU is playing their 4th straight game
BC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -17 (SP+ LOU -16)
Projected Score: BC: 17 - LOU: 34 (50)
LOU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
BC Travel: 819 miles

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (38 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BC Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boston College's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Boston College vs Northern Illinois	-8.0	50.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/9	Boston College vs Holy Cross	-10.0	52.0	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/16	Boston College vs Florida State	+25.5	48.0	L 29 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Boston College at Louisville	+14.0	53.0	L 28 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/30	Boston College vs Virginia	-5.0	52.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/7	Boston College at Army	+2.5	47.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Boston College at Georgia Tech	+5.5	57.0	W 38 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Boston College vs UConn	-14.5	49.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/3	Boston College at Syracuse	+3.0	51.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Boston College vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	48.5	L 22 - 48	O	N
Thu 11/16	Boston College at Pittsburgh	+1.0	47.0	L 16 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/24	Boston College vs Miami	+13.5	50.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
Thu 12/28	Boston College vs SMU	+13.5	49.0	W 23 - 14	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boston College's Schedule

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BC	#62 (.21)	42% (63)	24.8	46% (35)	3.31 (29)	197	37% (106)	184	3.92 (66)	#113 (.26)	43% (82)	28.3	43% (66)	44% (106)	4.41 (120)	55.2	1.5	1.1
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	30.7	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.3	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)		41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)		40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BC Offense	13	24.8	25.2	42.3%	3.92	1.5	21	381	197	184	4.7	61%	38%	46%	37%	13%	.21
LOU Defense	14	21.3	16.1	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BC Defense	13	28.3	27.4	43.1%	4.41	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	43%	44%	12%	.26
LOU Offense	14	30.7	37.7	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boston College	13	31:07	21.5	41%	76%	6.5	55.2	1.5	1.1	2.9	0.8	1	28.7
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BC Offense	13	61% (9)	46% (35)	42	196.7	4.7	25 (37)	.26 (17)	3.31 (29)	88% (1)	7% (17)	1.12 (18)
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BC Defense	13	55% (118)	43% (66)	-	-	-	-	.15 (77)	3.09 (65)	82% (113)	7% (128)	1.08 (107)
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BC Offense	13	38% (125)	37% (106)	15.7	27.8	184.2	6.6	11.7	15 (96)	14 (107)	.17 (103)	1.6 (71)	29% (18)	28% (89)	.39 (45)	6% (56)	2.4 (2)
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BC Defense	13	44% (16)	44% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.43 (125)	1.7 (105)	31% (84)	32% (98)	.37 (99)	4% (123)	2.1 (82)
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: -3.41 #82
Boston College's Offense Rating: 17.63 #56
Boston College's Defense Rating: 15.21 #120
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
Boston College's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Boston College's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.9 #81
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #83
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #78

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boston College: -3.41 Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boston College: -4.9 Louisville: 10.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boston College Scoring
Offense: 24.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.4

Boston College's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 34
Boston College 17

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 29
Boston College 12

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 31
Boston College 22

Total Points: 53

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.7
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Louisville	38	Boston College	24	Louisville -25.5	Boston College	54.5	Over
2024	10/25	Boston College	27	Louisville	31	Louisville -7.0	Boston College	54.0	Over
2023	09/23	Louisville	56	Boston College	28	Louisville -14	Louisville	53.0	Over
2022	10/01	Boston College	34	Louisville	33	Louisville -13.5	Boston College	48.5	Over
2021	10/23	Louisville	28	Boston College	14	Louisville -4	Louisville	57.5	Under
2020	11/28	Boston College	34	Louisville	27	Boston College -1	Boston College	57.0	Over
2019	10/05	Louisville	41	Boston College	39	Louisville -3.5	Boston College	61.0	Over
2018	10/13	Boston College	38	Louisville	20	Boston College -11	Boston College	56.5	Over
2017	10/14	Louisville	42	Boston College	45	Louisville -20	Boston College	60.0	Over
2016	11/05	Boston College	7	Louisville	52	Louisville -24.5	Louisville	52.0	Over
2015	10/24	Louisville	17	Boston College	14	Louisville -8.5	Boston College	37.0	Under
2014	11/08	Boston College	19	Louisville	38	Louisville -2.5	Louisville	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	8	4	9 Overs
Boston College	4	8	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	6 - 6	4 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 8	6 - 6	2 - 2	4 - 4

(#82) BC at (#21) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BC	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#82	#21
SP+SP+	#81	#24
Perf GradeGrade	#88	#35
OffenseOff	#71	#41
DefenseDef	#96	#23
Spec TeamsST	#104	#98
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#38

Boston College Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Boston College on Offense


CategoryCat	BC Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#71	#23
SuccessSuc	#63	#13
ExplosiveExp	#79	#122
PPAPPA	#62	#12
PowerPwr	#56	#16
SP+SP+	#83	#26
Pts POPPO	#66	#77
HavocHav	#20	#23

Boston College Run Game


CategoryCat	BC Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#41	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#35	#14
Run ExplRExp	#18	#68
PPAExp	#17	#14
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	#29	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#47	#7
TackleTak	-	#50

Boston College Pass Game


CategoryCat	BC Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#119	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#71	#123
PPAExp	#103	#23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#7	#20
F7 HavocF7	#17	#26
DB HavocDB	#56	#32

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	BC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#96
SuccessSuc	#11	#82
ExplosiveExp	#105	#105
PPAPPA	#46	#113
PowerPwr	#44	#120
SP+SP+	#40	#78
Pts POPPO	#53	#120
HavocHav	#68	#130

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	BC Def
Run GameRun	#13	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	#66
Run ExplRExp	#101	#107
PPAExp	#43	#77
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#65
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#76
TackleTak	-	#107

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	BC Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#106
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#105
PPAExp	#64	#125
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	#119
F7 HavocF7	#64	#128
DB HavocDB	#74	#123

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

BC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 82° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Louisville -14.0 (53.0)
Louisville won vs Boston College this year (56-28)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Boston College last year (31-27)
Louisville beat Boston College in 2023 (56-28)
Boston College beat Louisville in 2022 (34-33)

BC's OC Steve Shimko (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)	189	330	57%	2270	15	14	6.9
Emmett Morehead	15	30	50%	124	0	0	4.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)	215	1113	13	5.2	45
Kye Robichaux (Tr)	163	780	8	4.8	57
Pat Garwo III	52	270	1	5.2	50
Alex Broome	60	266	1	4.4	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lewis Bond	52	646	7	12.4	42
Dino Tomlin	24	312	0	13.0	52
Joseph Griffin Jr.	19	283	0	14.9	38
Ryan O'Keefe (Tr)	23	235	1	10.2	38

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Aazaar Abdul-Rahim (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Vinny DePalma	92	2	1	1	1
John Pupel	81	6	0	0	1
Kameron Arnold	65	3	1	5	3
Donovan Ezeiruaku	53	6	1	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shitta Sillah	14	3	2	2	0
Neto Okpala	27	6	2	7	1
George Rooks (Tr)	27	3	2	4	0
Khris Banks	24	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Jones	25	1	0	0	9
Jalen Cheek	26	0	0	0	3
Kameron Arnold	65	3	1	5	3

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)	256	395	65%	3204	21	12	8.1
Brock Domann	5	5	100%	44	0	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jawhar Jordan	181	1128	13	6.2	74
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)	132	810	11	6.1	73
Maurice Turner	62	284	1	4.6	41
Keyjuan Brown	11	65	1	5.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)	63	858	6	13.6	85
Chris Bell	29	407	2	14.0	48
Kevin Coleman Jr.	24	332	2	13.8	58
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	20	312	4	15.6	55

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
TJ Quinn	87	2	1	5	2
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	0	0	6
Cam'Ron Kelly	64	5	0	1	2
Jaylin Alderman	57	7	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Gillotte	41	12	10	6	0
Mason Reiger	20	6	5	3	2
Ramon Puryear	19	6	4	3	0
Jared Dawson	13	4	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quincy Riley	49	2	10
Jarvis Brownlee	30	1	6
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	6