Virginia Tech at Louisville - 2023 Matchup Preview

Virginia Tech Hokies at Louisville Cardinals(#16)

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Louisville -9.5 (48.5) (-340) Open: -10.0
Louisville 34 - Virginia Tech: 3 (ACC)

Hokies (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Pry (4 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (26 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
LOU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Louisville -10 (SP+ LOU -6)
Projected Score: VT: 20 - LOU: 30 (49)
LOU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
VT Travel: 300 miles

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (38 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VT Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia Tech's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion	-16.0	48.0	W 36 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Virginia Tech vs Purdue	-1.5	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Virginia Tech at Rutgers	+6.5	37.5	L 16 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/23	Virginia Tech at Marshall	+5.5	41.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh	+3.0	40.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia Tech at Florida State	+23.5	52.5	L 17 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest	-1.5	48.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/26	Virginia Tech vs Syracuse	-2.5	47.5	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia Tech at Louisville	+9.5	48.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/11	Virginia Tech at Boston College	-2.5	48.5	W 48 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia Tech vs NC State	-2.5	40.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/25	Virginia Tech at Virginia	-2.5	52.5	W 55 - 17	O	Y
Wed 12/27	Virginia Tech vs Tulane	-13.5	43.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia Tech's Schedule

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VT	#59 (.21)	43% (55)	29.5	47% (32)	3.2 (51)	190	39% (91)	201	4.32 (30)	#49 (.16)	38% (23)	23.9	39% (36)	36% (13)	4.49 (124)	57.8	1.2	1.2
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	30.7	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.3	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VT	#75 (.18)	42% (87)		44% (66)	3.01 (76)	173	39% (102)	178	4.22 (40)	#18 (.09)	39% (34)		42% (56)	36% (15)	2.97 (7)	46.3	1.2	1.8
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VT Offense	13	29.5	26	43.1%	4.32	1.2	20	391	190	201	5	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.21
LOU Defense	14	21.3	16.1	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VT Defense	13	23.9	28.5	37.6%	4.49	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	39%	36%	17%	.16
LOU Offense	14	30.7	37.7	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia Tech	13	31:09	19.8	35%	65%	6.3	57.8	1.2	1.2	6.4	2.9	2	30.7
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VT Offense	13	55% (32)	47% (32)	38.4	189.9	5	20 (61)	.16 (63)	3.2 (51)	79% (24)	10% (74)	0.98 (77)
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VT Defense	13	53% (110)	39% (36)	-	-	-	-	.15 (75)	2.89 (32)	70% (51)	12% (17)	1.1 (111)
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VT Offense	13	45% (99)	39% (91)	15.7	27.4	201.5	7.4	12.8	23 (51)	5 (6)	.28 (70)	1.7 (27)	32% (67)	30% (73)	.25 (92)	5% (18)	1.9 (113)
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VT Defense	13	46% (26)	36% (13)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.19 (24)	1.6 (81)	34% (37)	24% (8)	.19 (14)	5% (108)	1.9 (29)
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)

Virginia Tech's Power Ratings
Virginia Tech's Power Rating: 1.51 #54
Virginia Tech's Offense Rating: 17.22 #58
Virginia Tech's Defense Rating: 9.01 #61
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #57
Virginia Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Virginia Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #46
Virginia Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Virginia Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia Tech: 1.51 Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia Tech: 4.7 Louisville: 10.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Virginia Tech Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.5

Virginia Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 30
Virginia Tech 20

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 28
Virginia Tech 19

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 30
Virginia Tech 23

Total Points: 53

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.7
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Virginia Tech	16	Louisville	28	Louisville -10.5	Louisville	52.5	Under
2023	11/04	Louisville	34	Virginia Tech	3	Louisville -9.5	Louisville	48.5	Under
2020	10/31	Louisville	35	Virginia Tech	42	Virginia Tech -3.0	Virginia Tech	0
2005	01/02	Virginia Tech	35	Louisville	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	2	2	0 Overs
Virginia Tech	2	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 2
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 1

(#54) VT at (#21) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VT	LOU
Power RatePwr	#54	#21
SP+SP+	#46	#24
Perf GradeGrade	#74	#35
OffenseOff	#92	#41
DefenseDef	#76	#23
Spec TeamsST	#45	#98
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#57	#38

Virginia Tech Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Virginia Tech on Offense


CategoryCat	VT Off	LOU Def
Perf GradePerf	#92	#23
SuccessSuc	#55	#13
ExplosiveExp	#74	#122
PPAPPA	#59	#12
PowerPwr	#58	#16
SP+SP+	#65	#26
Pts POPPO	#30	#77
HavocHav	#55	#23

Virginia Tech Run Game


CategoryCat	VT Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#49	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#32	#14
Run ExplRExp	#77	#68
PPAExp	#63	#14
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#51	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#7
TackleTak	-	#50

Virginia Tech Pass Game


CategoryCat	VT Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#89	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#91	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#27	#123
PPAExp	#70	#23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#86	#20
F7 HavocF7	#74	#26
DB HavocDB	#18	#32

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	VT Def
Perf GradePerf	#41	#76
SuccessSuc	#11	#23
ExplosiveExp	#105	#92
PPAPPA	#46	#49
PowerPwr	#44	#61
SP+SP+	#40	#44
Pts POPPO	#53	#124
HavocHav	#68	#47

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	VT Def
Run GameRun	#13	#110
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	#36
Run ExplRExp	#101	#111
PPAExp	#43	#75
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#32
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#34
TackleTak	-	#94

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	VT Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#13
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#81
PPAExp	#64	#24
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	#9
F7 HavocF7	#64	#17
DB HavocDB	#74	#108

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

VT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Louisville -9.5 (48.5)
Louisville won vs Virginia Tech this year (34-3)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Virginia Tech in 2023 (34-3)

VT's OC Tyler Bowen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kyron Drones (Tr)	166	285	58%	2084	17	3	7.3
Grant Wells	37	68	54%	519	5	2	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bhayshul Tuten (Tr)	173	863	10	5.0	49
Kyron Drones (Tr)	166	818	5	4.9	59
Malachi Thomas	83	381	2	4.6	35
Grant Wells	17	75	1	4.4	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Da'Quan Felton (Tr)	38	667	8	17.6	84
Jaylin Lane (Tr)	41	538	6	13.1	75
Dae'Quan Wright	28	366	0	13.1	39
Stephen Gosnell	22	347	3	15.8	44

View Virginia Tech's Full Roster

VT's DC Chris Marve (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keli Lawson	76	7	3	4	6
Alan Tisdale	71	4	2	2	2
Jalen Stroman	55	2	0	1	2
Mansoor Delane	52	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antwuan Powell	38	14	10	6	0
Cole Nelson	27	8	5	1	0
Pheldarius Payne	28	9	4	5	1
Norell Pollard	23	8	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Strong	24	1	0	0	8
Keli Lawson	76	7	3	4	6
Derrick Canteen (Tr)	34	2	0	0	5

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)	256	395	65%	3204	21	12	8.1
Brock Domann	5	5	100%	44	0	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jawhar Jordan	181	1128	13	6.2	74
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)	132	810	11	6.1	73
Maurice Turner	62	284	1	4.6	41
Keyjuan Brown	11	65	1	5.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)	63	858	6	13.6	85
Chris Bell	29	407	2	14.0	48
Kevin Coleman Jr.	24	332	2	13.8	58
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	20	312	4	15.6	55

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
TJ Quinn	87	2	1	5	2
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	0	0	6
Cam'Ron Kelly	64	5	0	1	2
Jaylin Alderman	57	7	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Gillotte	41	12	10	6	0
Mason Reiger	20	6	5	3	2
Ramon Puryear	19	6	4	3	0
Jared Dawson	13	4	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quincy Riley	49	2	10
Jarvis Brownlee	30	1	6
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	6