USC at Colorado - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
USC -22 (74.5) (0) Open: 0.0
USC 48 - Colorado: 41 (Pac-12)

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 42 - 34 (37 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USC 2nd straight Road Game
COLO is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: USC -10 (SP+ USC -13.5)
Projected Score: USC: 41 - COLO: 31 (72)
USC Win prob: 96% | Cover: 52%
USC Travel: 828 miles, 1 hrs behind

Buffaloes (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Deion Sanders (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 35 (36 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
COLO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Colorado's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Colorado at TCU	+20.5	59.5	W 45 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Colorado vs Nebraska	-2.5	56.5	W 36 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Colorado vs Colorado State	-23.0	63.0	W 43 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/23	Colorado at Oregon	+21.0	70.0	L 6 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/30	Colorado vs USC	+22.0	74.5	L 41 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Colorado at Arizona State	-3.0	58.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/13	Colorado vs Stanford	-13.0	59.0	L 43 - 46	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Colorado at UCLA	+14.0	60.0	L 16 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Colorado vs Oregon State	+13.0	60.5	L 19 - 26	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Colorado vs Arizona	+6.0	55.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Fri 11/17	Colorado at Washington State	+4.5	59.5	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/25	Colorado at Utah	+21.5	43.5	L 17 - 23	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#6 (.39)	47% (15)	41.8	48% (20)	3.19 (52)	134	47% (21)	333	4.99 (4)	#122 (.29)	46% (121)	34.4	49% (125)	43% (91)	3.55 (49)	64.9	1.3	1.2
COLO	#58 (.21)	41% (77)	28.2	36% (127)	3.08 (75)	69	44% (45)	295	4.24 (33)	#123 (.3)	47% (128)	34.8	48% (115)	48% (128)	4.29 (113)	71.2	0.9	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
COLO	#35 (.24)	44% (48)		44% (73)	2.76 (110)	66	45% (34)	302	4.34 (28)	#22 (.09)	38% (30)		40% (43)	36% (17)	3.3 (21)	62.8	0.9	1.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	41.8	37.4	47.5%	4.99	1.3	22	467	134	333	4.8	41%	59%	48%	47%	14%	.39
COLO Defense	12	34.8	33.8	47.4%	4.29	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	48%	48%	16%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	34.4	40.4	45.8%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	43%	14%	.29
COLO Offense	12	28.2	35.5	41.4%	4.24	0.9	21	364	69	295	2.3	35%	65%	36%	44%	17%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	27:33	22.5	43%	61%	7.3	64.9	1.3	1.2	5.5	1.9	3	30.3
Colorado	12	27:34	21.2	38%	67%	8.9	71.2	0.9	1.8	5.5	2.3	1	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	41% (123)	48% (20)	27.8	133.6	4.8	33 (8)	.29 (8)	3.19 (52)	78% (28)	10% (65)	1.2 (2)
COLO Defense	12	48% (45)	48% (115)	-	-	-	-	.24 (114)	3.14 (78)	88% (130)	10% (68)	1.03 (87)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	51% (83)	49% (125)	-	-	-	-	.29 (128)	3.31 (110)	73% (64)	10% (64)	1.07 (100)
COLO Offense	12	35% (131)	36% (127)	29.8	68.9	2.3	12 (116)	-.01 (127)	3.08 (75)	73% (76)	12% (111)	0.94 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	59% (10)	47% (21)	24.2	35.5	333	9.4	13.8	37 (4)	6 (14)	.47 (14)	1.7 (20)	29% (22)	37% (14)	.65 (4)	4% (15)	2.3 (12)
COLO Defense	12	51% (95)	48% (128)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.39 (116)	1.5 (49)	30% (99)	39% (131)	.51 (128)	6% (84)	2 (66)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	49% (60)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.32 (98)	1.7 (90)	31% (87)	34% (115)	.4 (108)	4% (129)	2.1 (92)
COLO Offense	12	65% (1)	44% (45)	26.9	39.5	294.7	7.5	11	29 (18)	4 (2)	.32 (53)	1.5 (87)	34% (106)	34% (34)	.52 (15)	5% (40)	2.2 (22)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.81 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 9.81 Colorado: -1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 7.9 Colorado: -5.4

Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: -1 #73
Colorado's Offense Rating: 18.51 #50
Colorado's Defense Rating: 15.48 #121
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Colorado's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
Colorado's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #83
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #45
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #116

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

USC Scoring
Offense: 41.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.4
Defense: 34.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.4

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
USC 41
Colorado 31

Total Points: 72

Based on Last 4 Games
USC 38
Colorado 30

Total Points: 68

Based on Entire Season
USC 37
Colorado 35

Total Points: 72

Colorado Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.5
Defense: 34.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.8

Colorado's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Colorado	41	USC	48	USC -22	Colorado	74.5	Over
2022	11/11	USC	55	Colorado	17	USC -34	USC	66.0	Over
2021	10/02	Colorado	14	USC	37	USC -9	USC	50.5	Over
2019	10/25	Colorado	31	USC	35	USC -10.5	Colorado	65.0	Over
2018	10/13	USC	31	Colorado	20	USC -7	USC	57.0	Under
2017	11/11	Colorado	24	USC	38	USC -14	NA	63.0	Under
2016	10/08	USC	21	Colorado	17	USC -4	Push	62.5	Under
2015	11/13	Colorado	24	USC	27	USC -14.5	Colorado	58.5	Under
2014	10/18	USC	56	Colorado	28	USC -20.5	USC	0
2013	11/23	Colorado	29	USC	47	USC -21.5	Colorado	0
2012	10/20	USC	50	Colorado	6
2011	11/04	Colorado	17	USC	42
2002	09/14	Colorado	3	USC	40
2000	09/08	USC	17	Colorado	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado	0	4	4 Overs
USC	14	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 8	7 - 1	3 - 0	4 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 6	1 - 7	1 - 4	0 - 3

(#23) USC at (#73) COLO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	COLO
Power RatePwr	#23	#73
SP+SP+	#38	#83
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#106
OffenseOff	#16	#82
DefenseDef	#80	#122
Spec TeamsST	#86	#121
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#14	#49

USC Injury Report

Colorado Injury Report

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	COLO Def
Perf GradePerf	#16	#122
SuccessSuc	#15	#128
ExplosiveExp	#2	#73
PPAPPA	#6	#123
PowerPwr	#7	#121
SP+SP+	#3	#116
Pts POPPO	#4	#113
HavocHav	#31	#82

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	COLO Def
Run GameRun	#10	#125
Run SuccessRSuc	#20	#115
Run ExplRExp	#2	#87
PPAExp	#8	#114
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#78
Stuff RateStuff	#88	#68
TackleTak	-	#95

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	COLO Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#101
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#128
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#49
PPAExp	#14	#116
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#96
F7 HavocF7	#65	#68
DB HavocDB	#15	#84

Colorado on Offense


CategoryCat	COLO Off	USC Def
Perf GradePerf	#82	#80
SuccessSuc	#77	#121
ExplosiveExp	#30	#96
PPAPPA	#58	#122
PowerPwr	#50	#119
SP+SP+	#45	#109
Pts POPPO	#33	#49
HavocHav	#90	#116

Colorado Run Game


CategoryCat	COLO Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#135	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#127	#125
Run ExplRExp	#98	#100
PPAExp	#127	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#110
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#79
TackleTak	-	#77

Colorado Pass Game


CategoryCat	COLO Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#45	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#87	#90
PPAExp	#53	#98
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#70	#26
F7 HavocF7	#111	#64
DB HavocDB	#40	#129

Program Comparison
COLO 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Folsom Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68°

Rematch from Week 5
USC 22.0 (74.5)
USC won at Colorado this year (48-41)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Colorado in 2023 (48-41)
USC beat Colorado in 2022 (55-17)

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3

COLO's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Shedeur Sanders (Tr)	298	430	69%	3230	27	3	7.5
Ryan Staub	23	40	58%	254	1	0	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Edwards	76	321	1	4.2	34
Anthony Hankerson	78	319	1	4.1	20
Sy'veon Wilkerson (Tr)	53	190	3	3.6	11
Alton McCaskill (Tr)	14	59	0	4.2	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Weaver (Tr)	68	908	4	13.4	48
Travis Hunter (Tr)	57	721	5	12.6	47
Jimmy Horn Jr. (Tr)	58	567	6	9.8	45
Dylan Edwards	36	299	4	8.3	75

View Colorado's Full Roster

COLO's DC Charles Kelly (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
LaVonta Bentley	69	11	5	4	2
Shilo Sanders (Tr)	67	1	0	1	3
Trevor Woods	56	1	1	2	3
Rodrick Ward (Tr)	52	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
LaVonta Bentley	69	11	5	4	2
Jordan Domineck (Tr)	51	12	5	4	2
Amari McNeill (Tr)	31	7	3	1	1
Leonard Payne Jr.	10	3	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Travis Hunter (Tr)	31	2	0	0	5
Omarion Cooper (Tr)	37	2	1	0	5
Trevor Woods	56	1	1	2	3