Louisville at Florida State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles(#7)Florida State logo
Saturday, December 2nd 2023 (8:00 PM EST)
Florida State -3.5 (51.0) (-102)  Open: -3.5 | 51.0
Florida State 16 - Louisville: 6  (ACC Championship)

 
Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (24 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FSU is playing their 9th straight game
LOU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -9.5   (SP+ FSU -13)

Projected Score: LOU: 22 - FSU: 31 (53)
FSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 543 miles
Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (45 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-7.049.5W 39 - 34ON
Thu 9/7 Louisville vs Murray State-43.555.5W 56 - 0OY
Sat 9/16 Louisville vs Indiana-10.051.0W 21 - 14UN
Sat 9/23 Louisville vs Boston College-14.053.0W 56 - 28OY
Fri 9/29 Louisville at NC State-3.556.5W 13 - 10UN
Sat 10/7 Louisville vs Notre Dame+6.553.0W 33 - 20UY
Sat 10/14 Louisville at Pittsburgh-7.544.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Louisville vs Duke-5.047.0W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Louisville vs Virginia Tech-9.548.5W 34 - 3UY
Thu 11/9 Louisville vs Virginia-20.549.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/18 Louisville at Miami+1.546.5W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Louisville vs Kentucky-7.547.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 12/2 Louisville vs Florida State+3.551.0L 6 - 16UN
Wed 12/27 Louisville vs USC-4.558.0L 28 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Florida State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Florida State vs LSU+2.056.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 9/9 Florida State vs Southern Miss-31.054.0W 66 - 13OY
Sat 9/16 Florida State at Boston College-25.548.0W 31 - 29ON
Sat 9/23 Florida State at Clemson-2.055.5W 31 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-23.552.5W 39 - 17ON
Sat 10/14 Florida State vs Syracuse-18.553.5W 41 - 3UY
Sat 10/21 Florida State vs Duke-14.049.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 10/28 Florida State at Wake Forest-21.053.5W 41 - 16OY
Sat 11/4 Florida State at Pittsburgh-21.550.0W 24 - 7UN
Sat 11/11 Florida State vs Miami-14.550.5W 27 - 20UN
Sat 11/18 Florida State vs North Alabama-35.5
Sat 11/25 Florida State at Florida-6.051.0W 24 - 15UY
Sat 12/2 Florida State vs Louisville-3.551.0W 16 - 6UY
Sat 12/30 Florida State vs Georgia+23.547.0L 3 - 63ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#46 (.23)48% (11)30.751% (12)3.07 (80)17947% (26)2364.04 (53)#12 (.08)36% (13)21.335% (14)37% (16)3.9 (77)48.61.41.4
FSU#60 (.21)41% (79)34.639% (113)2.64 (128)15043% (54)2514.45 (25)#13 (.09)36% (9)19.340% (38)32% (1)3.5 (47)56.60.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1430.72448.4%4.041.4214151792364.751%48%51%47%16%.23
FSU Defense1419.314.335.5%3.51.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%32%21%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1421.326.335.8%3.91.4 - - - - - 47%53%35%37%19%.08
FSU Offense1434.644.841.3%4.450.6204011502514.547%53%39%43%15%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1432:1320.837%54%5.648.61.41.45.42.3130.8
Florida State1429:2319.636%48%6.156.60.61.26.73.2229.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1451% (57)51% (12)38.1178.54.731 (17).2 (43)3.07 (80)73% (78)10% (64)0.93 (101)
FSU Defense1449% (49)40% (38) - - - - .12 (51)2.75 (19)77% (96)12% (20)1.07 (102)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1447% (26)35% (14) - - - - -.01 (14)2.4 (3)68% (37)12% (26)1 (68)
FSU Offense1447% (93)39% (113)33.1150.14.532 (10).07 (111)2.64 (128)63% (123)9% (52)1.06 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1448% (74)47% (26)1929.1236.48.112.422 (61)12 (85).3 (64)1.6 (82)26% (6)37% (18).45 (33)6% (74)2.1 (42)
FSU Defense1451% (90)32% (1) - - - - - - 10 (67).06 (4)1.6 (65)36% (16)27% (28).22 (22)9% (2)1.9 (24)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1453% (111)37% (16) - - - - - - 13 (26).19 (23)1.8 (123)37% (7)23% (3).24 (35)7% (32)2.4 (131)
FSU Offense1453% (39)43% (54)18.630.9250.68.113.525 (37)4 (2).34 (46)1.6 (48)32% (78)31% (66).36 (61)6% (67)2.2 (32)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 10.32 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.32   Florida State: 19.88

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.8   Florida State: 23.7




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 19.88 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 31
Louisville 22


Total Points: 53

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.8
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202312/02Florida State16Louisville6Florida StateFlorida State -3.5Florida State51.0Under
202209/16Louisville31Florida State35Florida StateFlorida State -2.5Florida State57.0Over
202109/25Florida State23Louisville31LouisvilleFlorida State -1.5Louisville61.0Under
202010/24Louisville48Florida State16LouisvilleLouisville -5.0Louisville63.0Over
201909/21Florida State35Louisville24Florida StateFlorida State -6.5Florida State61.0Under
201809/29Louisville24Florida State28Florida StateFlorida State -4.5Louisville47.5Over
201710/21Florida State28Louisville31LouisvilleFlorida State -7Louisville58.0Over
201609/17Louisville63Florida State20LouisvilleFlorida State -4.5Louisville65.0Over
201510/17Florida State41Louisville21Florida StateFlorida State -9Florida State47.0Over
201410/30Louisville31Florida State42Florida StateFlorida State -8.5Florida State0
200209/26Louisville26Florida State20Louisville
200009/22Florida State31Louisville0Florida State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State756 Overs
Louisville553 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 56 - 44 - 22 - 2
Road Teams5 - 74 - 62 - 22 - 4

(#21) Louisville Info
Power Rating: 10.32 #21
Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50


Louisville has lost 1 straight
Louisville has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 1 (1 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Louisville Highlights
Louisville is Undefeated vs Spread as Underdogs Away from Home

Louisville has Really Good Running Game (#113)
Louisville offense is efficent (#77)
Louisville has a really good defense (#17)
Louisville has a good run defense (#25)
Louisville has a good pass defense (#17)
Louisville Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#69)
Louisville Defensive Line is very good (#70)
Louisville Front 7 is disruptive (#46)
Louisville defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Louisville Deficiencies
Louisville offense is not Explosive (#6)
Louisville Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#132)
Louisville gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#11)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFSULOU
OverallOver#12#29
OffenseOff#21#38
DefenseDef#12#19
Special TeamsST#35#77
PassingPass#18#31
RushingRush#29#10
Run BlockRBLK#19#66
Pass BlockPBLK#5#30
Route RunningWR Rt#47#60
TacklingTkl#30#44
Run DefenseR Def#39#29
Pass Rush DefPRush#5#18
Coverage DefCov#10#50

Rematch from Week 14
Florida State -3.5 (51.0)
Florida State won vs Louisville this year (16-6)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Louisville in 2023 (16-6)
Florida State beat Louisville in 2022 (35-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bank of America Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LOU | FSU
Depth Chart: LOU | FSU
Rosters: LOU | FSU
(#10) Florida State Info
Power Rating: 19.88 #10
Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40


Florida State has won 12 straight
Florida State has won 7 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 0 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida State Highlights
Florida State is Undefeated away from Home

Florida State offense is explosive (#1)
Florida State offense is good in red zone (#13)
Florida State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Florida State has a really good defense (#50)
Florida State has a good pass defense (#46)
Florida State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#35)
Florida State Defensive Line is very good (#87)
Florida State Front 7 is disruptive (#17)
Florida State Secondary is very good (#34)
Florida State has a great TO Margin (#28)

Florida State Deficiencies
Florida State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#1)
Florida State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#32)
Florida State run game is really bad (#63)


  
Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)25639565%320421128.1
Brock Domann55100%44008.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jawhar Jordan1811128136.274
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)132810116.173
Maurice Turner6228414.641
Keyjuan Brown116515.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)63858613.685
Chris Bell29407214.048
Kevin Coleman Jr.24332213.858
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce20312415.655

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn872152
Devin Neal (Tr)723006
Cam'Ron Kelly645012
Jaylin Alderman577202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Gillotte41121060
Mason Reiger206532
Ramon Puryear196430
Jared Dawson134311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Riley4920010
Jarvis Brownlee301006
Devin Neal (Tr)723006

Florida State's OC Alex Atkins
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jordan Travis20732464%27452028.5
Tate Rodemaker325657%510509.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trey Benson156905145.885
Lawrance Toafili6946346.773
Rodney Hill5019013.819
Caziah Holmes (Tr)2918526.440
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keon Coleman (Tr)506581113.258
Johnny Wilson41617215.044
Jaheim Bell (Tr)39503212.949
Kyle Morlock (Tr)19255013.463

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Adam Fuller
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tatum Bethune707133
Kalen DeLoach6711802
Shyheim Brown532224
DJ Lundy526224
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Verse4012972
Kalen DeLoach6711802
Patrick Payton4314679
Braden Fiske (Tr)429650
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Renardo Green4331112
Azareye'h Thomas2730010
Patrick Payton4314679