Kentucky at Louisville - 2023 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsLouisville logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Louisville -7.5 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Kentucky 38 - Louisville: 31

 
Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (27 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UK 2nd straight Road Game
LOU is playing their 5th straight game
UK is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -6.5   (SP+ LOU -2)

Projected Score: UK: 22 - LOU: 28 (50)
LOU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UK Travel: 69 miles
Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (38 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kentucky vs Ball State-25.049.0W 44 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-35.062.5W 28 - 17UN
Sat 9/16 Kentucky vs Akron-25.048.5W 35 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Kentucky at Vanderbilt-13.550.0W 45 - 28OY
Sat 9/30 Kentucky vs Florida-1.044.0W 33 - 14OY
Sat 10/7 Kentucky at Georgia+14.547.0L 13 - 51ON
Sat 10/14 Kentucky vs Missouri-1.550.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Kentucky vs Tennessee+4.050.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 11/4 Kentucky at Mississippi State-5.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/11 Kentucky vs Alabama+10.045.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/18 Kentucky at South Carolina+2.552.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/25 Kentucky at Louisville+7.547.5W 38 - 31OY
Fri 12/29 Kentucky vs Clemson+3.544.5L 35 - 38OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-7.049.5W 39 - 34ON
Thu 9/7 Louisville vs Murray State-43.555.5W 56 - 0OY
Sat 9/16 Louisville vs Indiana-10.051.0W 21 - 14UN
Sat 9/23 Louisville vs Boston College-14.053.0W 56 - 28OY
Fri 9/29 Louisville at NC State-3.556.5W 13 - 10UN
Sat 10/7 Louisville vs Notre Dame+6.553.0W 33 - 20UY
Sat 10/14 Louisville at Pittsburgh-7.544.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Louisville vs Duke-5.047.0W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Louisville vs Virginia Tech-9.548.5W 34 - 3UY
Thu 11/9 Louisville vs Virginia-20.549.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/18 Louisville at Miami+1.546.5W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Louisville vs Kentucky-7.547.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 12/2 Louisville vs Florida State+3.551.0L 6 - 16UN
Wed 12/27 Louisville vs USC-4.558.0L 28 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#49 (.22)40% (93)29.141% (88)2.79 (118)12840% (83)2124.46 (23)#50 (.16)43% (87)25.842% (56)45% (116)3.95 (84)50.81.51.4
LOU#46 (.23)48% (11)30.751% (12)3.07 (80)17947% (26)2364.04 (53)#12 (.08)36% (13)21.335% (14)37% (16)3.9 (77)48.61.41.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense1329.126.840%4.461.5173391282124.943%55%41%40%18%.22
LOU Defense1421.316.135.8%3.91.4 - - - - - 47%53%35%37%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1325.82643.3%3.951.4 - - - - - 48%51%42%45%14%.16
LOU Offense1430.737.748.4%4.041.4214151792364.751%48%51%47%16%.23

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1327:3416.938%20%6.150.81.51.45.52629.3
Louisville1432:1320.837%54%5.648.61.41.45.42.3130.8
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1343% (108)41% (88)26.1127.74.918 (77).15 (71)2.79 (118)68% (106)11% (79)1.12 (17)
LOU Defense1447% (26)35% (14) - - - - -.01 (14)2.4 (3)68% (37)12% (26)1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1348% (46)42% (56) - - - - .1 (40)2.87 (29)70% (48)10% (75)0.87 (18)
LOU Offense1451% (57)51% (12)38.1178.54.731 (17).2 (43)3.07 (80)73% (78)10% (64)0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1355% (26)40% (83)16.228.8211.67.41325 (37)11 (68).32 (54)1.7 (25)35% (114)28% (88).31 (77)8% (113)2.2 (19)
LOU Defense1453% (111)37% (16) - - - - - - 13 (26).19 (23)1.8 (123)37% (7)23% (3).24 (35)7% (32)2.4 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1351% (92)45% (116) - - - - - - 11 (53).23 (45)1.4 (11)31% (76)30% (70).39 (104)5% (114)2.1 (75)
LOU Offense1448% (74)47% (26)1929.1236.48.112.422 (61)12 (85).3 (64)1.6 (82)26% (6)37% (18).45 (33)6% (74)2.1 (42)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 3.64   Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 9.3   Louisville: 10.8




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.8
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 28
Kentucky 22


Total Points: 50

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.7
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Kentucky14Louisville41LouisvilleLouisville -3.5Louisville48.5Over
202311/25Louisville31Kentucky38KentuckyLouisville -7.5Kentucky47.5Over
202211/26Kentucky26Louisville13KentuckyKentucky -3.5Kentucky42.5Under
202111/27Louisville21Kentucky52KentuckyLouisville -3Kentucky58.0Over
201911/30Kentucky45Louisville13KentuckyKentucky -3.5Kentucky51.0Over
201811/24Louisville10Kentucky56KentuckyKentucky -17Kentucky53.0Over
201711/25Kentucky17Louisville44LouisvilleLouisville -10Louisville68.0Under
201611/26Louisville38Kentucky41KentuckyLouisville -26Kentucky70.5Over
201511/28Kentucky24Louisville38LouisvilleLouisville -4Louisville51.5Over
201411/29Louisville44Kentucky40LouisvilleLouisville -14Kentucky0
201309/14Kentucky13Louisville27LouisvilleLouisville -10.5Louisville0
201209/02Louisville32Kentucky14Louisville
201109/17Kentucky17Louisville24Louisville
201009/04Louisville16Kentucky23Kentucky
200909/19Kentucky31Louisville27Kentucky
200808/31Louisville2Kentucky27Kentucky
200709/15Kentucky40Louisville34Kentucky
200609/03Louisville59Kentucky28Louisville
200509/04Kentucky24Louisville31Louisville
200409/05Louisville28Kentucky0Louisville
200308/31Kentucky24Louisville40Louisville
200209/01Louisville17Kentucky22Kentucky
200109/01Kentucky10Louisville36Louisville
200009/01Louisville40Kentucky34Louisville
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville1347 Overs
Kentucky1172 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 152 - 92 - 40 - 5
Road Teams15 - 99 - 25 - 04 - 2

(#43) Kentucky Info
Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30


Kentucky has lost 2 straight
Kentucky has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 2 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Kentucky Highlights
Kentucky offense is explosive (#92)
Kentucky offense is good in red zone (#60)
Kentucky defense does not give up big plays (#89)
Kentucky Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#46)
Kentucky Defensive Line is very good (#45)

Kentucky Deficiencies
Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#28)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatLOUUK
OverallOver#29#32
OffenseOff#38#59
DefenseDef#19#26
Special TeamsST#77#49
PassingPass#31#51
RushingRush#10#12
Run BlockRBLK#66#74
Pass BlockPBLK#30#53
Route RunningWR Rt#60#50
TacklingTkl#44#40
Run DefenseR Def#29#31
Pass Rush DefPRush#18#46
Coverage DefCov#50#33

Rematch from Week 13
Louisville -7.5 (47.5)
Kentucky won at Louisville this year (38-31)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Kentucky last year (41-14)
Kentucky beat Louisville in 2023 (38-31)
Kentucky beat Louisville in 2022 (26-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UK | LOU
Depth Chart: UK | LOU
Rosters: UK | LOU
(#21) Louisville Info
Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50


Louisville has won 4 straight
Louisville has won 6 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Louisville Highlights
Louisville has Really Good Running Game (#113)
Louisville offense is efficent (#77)
Louisville has a really good defense (#17)
Louisville has a good run defense (#25)
Louisville has a good pass defense (#17)
Louisville Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#69)
Louisville Defensive Line is very good (#70)
Louisville Front 7 is disruptive (#46)
Louisville defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Louisville Deficiencies
Louisville offense is not Explosive (#6)
Louisville Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#132)
Louisville gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#11)


  
Kentucky's OC Liam Coen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devin Leary (Tr)20937156%274625127.4
Kaiya Sheron2450%5001.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Re'Mahn Davis1991129145.775
Ramon Jefferson2818406.674
Barion Brown12147112.326
Demie Sumo2013917.042
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key42636615.158
Tayvion Robinson41552413.556
Barion Brown43539412.560
Re'Mahn Davis3332379.858

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Eryk Jackson898224
Trevin Wallace809630
Maxwell Hairston662006
Zion Childress582103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deone Walker5513882
J.J. Weaver448622
Trevin Wallace809630
Octavious Oxendine194320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxwell Hairston662006
Andru Phillips482005
D'Eryk Jackson898224

Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)25639565%320421128.1
Brock Domann55100%44008.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jawhar Jordan1811128136.274
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)132810116.173
Maurice Turner6228414.641
Keyjuan Brown116515.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)63858613.685
Chris Bell29407214.048
Kevin Coleman Jr.24332213.858
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce20312415.655

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn872152
Devin Neal (Tr)723006
Cam'Ron Kelly645012
Jaylin Alderman577202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Gillotte41121060
Mason Reiger206532
Ramon Puryear196430
Jared Dawson134311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Riley4920010
Jarvis Brownlee301006
Devin Neal (Tr)723006