Notre Dame at Louisville - 2023 Matchup Preview
Notre Dame logo   Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Louisville Cardinals  Louisville logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (7:37 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -6.5 (53.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Louisville 33 - Notre Dame: 20

 
Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (38 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ND 2nd straight Road Game
LOU is playing their 6th straight game
ND is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -6.5  (SP+ ND -8.5)
Projected Score: ND: 30 - LOU: 24 (54)
ND Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
ND Travel: 243 miles
Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-20.549.0W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/2 Notre Dame vs Tennessee State-48.555.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/9 Notre Dame at NC State-7.049.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 9/16 Notre Dame vs Central Michigan-34.551.5W 41 - 17ON
Sat 9/23 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+3.055.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 Notre Dame at Duke-5.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 10/7 Notre Dame at Louisville-6.553.0L 20 - 33UN
Sat 10/14 Notre Dame vs USC-3.061.0W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh-21.045.5W 58 - 7OY
Sat 11/4 Notre Dame at Clemson-3.044.5L 23 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Notre Dame vs Wake Forest-22.547.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 11/25 Notre Dame at Stanford-26.050.5W 56 - 23OY
Fri 12/29 Notre Dame vs Oregon State-5.540.5W 40 - 8OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-7.049.5W 39 - 34ON
Thu 9/7 Louisville vs Murray State-43.555.5W 56 - 0OY
Sat 9/16 Louisville vs Indiana-10.051.0W 21 - 14UN
Sat 9/23 Louisville vs Boston College-14.053.0W 56 - 28OY
Fri 9/29 Louisville at NC State-3.556.5W 13 - 10UN
Sat 10/7 Louisville vs Notre Dame+6.553.0W 33 - 20UY
Sat 10/14 Louisville at Pittsburgh-7.544.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Louisville vs Duke-5.047.0W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Louisville vs Virginia Tech-9.548.5W 34 - 3UY
Thu 11/9 Louisville vs Virginia-20.549.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/18 Louisville at Miami+1.546.5W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Louisville vs Kentucky-7.547.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 12/2 Louisville vs Florida State+3.551.0L 6 - 16UN
Wed 12/27 Louisville vs USC-4.558.0L 28 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND.248%4249%3.3418946%2073.99.1439%17.644%35%3.9242.31.41.4
LOU.1941%29.943%3.1820141%2063.74.0740%21.243%38%2.85661.82.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Offense134238.247.6%3.991.4223961892074.658%41%49%46%12%.2
LOU Defense1321.218.940.3%2.852.6 - - - - - 51%48%43%38%20%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Defense1317.61738.9%3.921.4 - - - - - 48%51%44%35%15%.14
LOU Offense1329.933.841.3%3.741.820407201206555%44%43%41%15%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Notre Dame1332:1021.647%44%4.642.31.41.462.8333.4
Louisville1329:5420.338%40%6.9661.82.67.23.7330
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Offense1358%49%40.8189.14.625.163.3473%7%0.85
LOU Defense1351%43% - - - - .042.9760%14%0.92
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Defense1348%44% - - - - .173.0163%11%1.06
LOU Offense1355%43%39.9201525.213.1869%10%1.13

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Offense1341%46%16.226207.2812.82511.271.626%33%.355%1.9
LOU Defense1348%38% - - - - - - 15.161.633%26%.146%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Defense1351%35% - - - - - - 10.141.733%26%.284%2.3
LOU Offense1344%41%16.828.3205.57.312.31312.221.634%31%.375%2.1

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 19.73  #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62  #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24  #12
2023 Talent Rating: 870.70  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 67%  #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1  #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8  #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 677.82
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 19.73   Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 19.1   Louisville: 10.8




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06  #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18  #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79  #16
2023 Talent Rating: 744.16  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8  #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7  #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 30
Louisville 24

Projected Total Points: 54
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Notre Dame31Louisville24Notre Dame -6.5Notre Dame45.0Over
202310/07Louisville33Notre Dame20Notre Dame -6.5Louisville53.0Push
202010/17Notre Dame12Louisville7Notre Dame -16.0Louisville62.5Under
201909/02Louisville17Notre Dame35Notre Dame -19Louisville55.0Under
201411/22Notre Dame28Louisville31Notre Dame -9Louisville0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville241 Overs
Notre Dame312 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 23 - 21 - 22 - 0
Road Teams2 - 32 - 30 - 22 - 1

(#6) ND at (#21) LOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDLOU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #6 #21
SP+SP+ #9 #24
Perf GradeGrade #2 #35
OffenseOff #5 #41
DefenseDef #3 #23
Spec TeamsST #2 #98
TalentTal #11 #29
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #38
Notre Dame on Offense
CategoryCat
ND OffLOU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #5 #23
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #11 #16
SP+SP+ #17 #26
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Notre Dame Run Game
CategoryCat
ND OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #15 #33
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #50
Notre Dame Pass Game
CategoryCat
ND OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #17 #62
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #25 #20
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Louisville on Offense
CategoryCatLOU OffND Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #41 #3
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #44 #12
SP+SP+ #40 #11
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Louisville Run Game
CategoryCat
LOU OffND Def
Run GameRun #13 #8
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #88 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #38
Louisville Pass Game
CategoryCatLOU OffND Def
Pass GamePass #39 #4
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #33 #8
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Notre Dame 6.5 (53.0)
Louisville won vs Notre Dame this year (33-20)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Louisville in 2024 (31-24)
Louisville beat Notre Dame in 2023 (33-20)

  
ND's OC Gerad Parker (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)19130164%26892488.9
Steven Angeli344477%5047111.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Audric Estime2101341186.480
Jeremiyah Love7138515.436
Jadarian Price4727235.854
Gi'Bran Payne4516823.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Tyree26484318.676
Mitchell Evans29422114.636
Rico Flores27392114.560
Jordan Faison19322416.955

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JD Bertrand768375
Howard Cross III657242
Jack Kiser521131
Xavier Watts473103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)4610581
Jordan Botelho295430
Marist Liufau426321
Nana Osafo-Mensah206320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Benjamin Morrison304009
JD Bertrand768375
Cam Hart192004

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)25639565%320421128.1
Brock Domann55100%44008.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jawhar Jordan1811128136.274
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)132810116.173
Maurice Turner6228414.641
Keyjuan Brown116515.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)63858613.685
Chris Bell29407214.048
Kevin Coleman Jr.24332213.858
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce20312415.655

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn872152
Devin Neal (Tr)723006
Cam'Ron Kelly645012
Jaylin Alderman577202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Gillotte41121060
Mason Reiger206532
Ramon Puryear196430
Jared Dawson134311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Riley4920010
Jarvis Brownlee301006
Devin Neal (Tr)723006