Notre Dame at Louisville - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#21)Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (7:37 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -6.5 (53.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 33 - Notre Dame: 20

Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 39 - 16 (33 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ND 2nd straight Road Game
LOU is playing their 6th straight game
ND is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -6.5 (SP+ ND -8.5)
Projected Score: ND: 30 - LOU: 24 (54)
ND Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
ND Travel: 243 miles

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (38 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ND Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Notre Dame vs Navy	-20.5	49.0	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Notre Dame vs Tennessee State	-48.5	55.0	W 56 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Notre Dame at NC State	-7.0	49.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Notre Dame vs Central Michigan	-34.5	51.5	W 41 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/23	Notre Dame vs Ohio State	+3.0	55.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Notre Dame at Duke	-5.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Notre Dame at Louisville	-6.5	53.0	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/14	Notre Dame vs USC	-3.0	61.0	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh	-21.0	45.5	W 58 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Notre Dame at Clemson	-3.0	44.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Notre Dame vs Wake Forest	-22.5	47.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Notre Dame at Stanford	-26.0	50.5	W 56 - 23	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Notre Dame vs Oregon State	-5.5	40.5	W 40 - 8	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND	#8 (.35)	49% (9)	39.2	51% (9)	3.37 (15)	186	48% (19)	247	4.87 (7)	#6 (.04)	35% (7)	15.9	37% (21)	33% (3)	2.97 (11)	48.2	1.3	1.8
LOU	#46 (.23)	48% (11)	30.7	51% (12)	3.07 (80)	179	47% (26)	236	4.04 (53)	#12 (.08)	36% (13)	21.3	35% (14)	37% (16)	3.9 (77)	48.6	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND	#8 (.32)	47% (22)		47% (26)	3.31 (24)	181	47% (21)	160	4.8 (5)	#1 (-.02)	36% (8)		43% (73)	29% (1)	2.75 (4)	42.4	0.8	1.8
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Offense	13	39.2	33	49.3%	4.87	1.3	21	433	186	247	5.3	52%	47%	51%	48%	11%	.35
LOU Defense	14	21.3	16.1	35.8%	3.9	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	37%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Defense	13	15.9	25	34.6%	2.97	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	33%	18%	.04
LOU Offense	14	30.7	37.7	48.4%	4.04	1.4	21	415	179	236	4.7	51%	48%	51%	47%	16%	.23

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Notre Dame	13	30:48	20.9	45%	59%	5.4	48.2	1.3	1.8	4.8	1.9	4	29.5
Louisville	14	32:13	20.8	37%	54%	5.6	48.6	1.4	1.4	5.4	2.3	1	30.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Offense	13	52% (45)	51% (9)	35.2	186.3	5.3	28 (25)	.23 (27)	3.37 (15)	72% (83)	7% (10)	0.97 (86)
LOU Defense	14	47% (26)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (14)	2.4 (3)	68% (37)	12% (26)	1 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Defense	13	50% (61)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	.07 (29)	2.85 (26)	67% (34)	11% (50)	1.05 (92)
LOU Offense	14	51% (57)	51% (12)	38.1	178.5	4.7	31 (17)	.2 (43)	3.07 (80)	73% (78)	10% (64)	0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Offense	13	47% (85)	48% (19)	17.5	27	246.5	9.1	14.1	31 (14)	9 (40)	.51 (8)	1.8 (16)	28% (10)	37% (19)	.53 (14)	4% (11)	2.1 (60)
LOU Defense	14	53% (111)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.19 (23)	1.8 (123)	37% (7)	23% (3)	.24 (35)	7% (32)	2.4 (131)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Defense	13	49% (67)	33% (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.04 (2)	1.5 (40)	36% (14)	25% (14)	.23 (26)	7% (27)	1.9 (20)
LOU Offense	14	48% (74)	47% (26)	19	29.1	236.4	8.1	12.4	22 (61)	12 (85)	.3 (64)	1.6 (82)	26% (6)	37% (18)	.45 (33)	6% (74)	2.1 (42)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 19.73 #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62 #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24 #12
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 67% #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1 #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8 #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 19.73 Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 19.1 Louisville: 10.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 39.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 30
Louisville 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 32
Notre Dame 23

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 27
Louisville 27

Total Points: 54

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.7
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Notre Dame	31	Louisville	24	Notre Dame -6.5	Notre Dame	45.0	Over
2023	10/07	Louisville	33	Notre Dame	20	Notre Dame -6.5	Louisville	53.0	Push
2020	10/17	Notre Dame	12	Louisville	7	Notre Dame -16.0	Louisville	62.5	Under
2019	09/02	Louisville	17	Notre Dame	35	Notre Dame -19	Louisville	55.0	Under
2014	11/22	Notre Dame	28	Louisville	31	Notre Dame -9	Louisville	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	2	4	1 Overs
Notre Dame	3	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	3 - 2	1 - 2	2 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 3	2 - 3	0 - 2	2 - 1

(#6) ND at (#21) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ND	LOU
Power RatePwr	#6	#21
SP+SP+	#9	#24
Perf GradeGrade	#2	#35
OffenseOff	#5	#41
DefenseDef	#3	#23
Spec TeamsST	#2	#98
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#9	#38

Notre Dame Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Notre Dame on Offense


CategoryCat	ND Off	LOU Def
Perf GradePerf	#5	#23
SuccessSuc	#9	#13
ExplosiveExp	#44	#122
PPAPPA	#8	#12
PowerPwr	#11	#16
SP+SP+	#17	#26
Pts POPPO	#7	#77
HavocHav	#7	#23

Notre Dame Run Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#9	#14
Run ExplRExp	#86	#68
PPAExp	#27	#14
Run BlockR Blk	#30	-
OL YdsOLY	#15	#3
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#7
TackleTak	-	#50

Notre Dame Pass Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#19	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#16	#123
PPAExp	#8	#23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#25	#20
F7 HavocF7	#10	#26
DB HavocDB	#11	#32

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	ND Def
Perf GradePerf	#41	#3
SuccessSuc	#11	#7
ExplosiveExp	#105	#57
PPAPPA	#46	#6
PowerPwr	#44	#12
SP+SP+	#40	#11
Pts POPPO	#53	#11
HavocHav	#68	#32

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#13	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	#12	#21
Run ExplRExp	#101	#92
PPAExp	#43	#29
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#26
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#18
TackleTak	-	#38

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#3
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#40
PPAExp	#64	#2
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	#8
F7 HavocF7	#64	#50
DB HavocDB	#74	#27

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 56° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Notre Dame 6.5 (53.0)
Louisville won vs Notre Dame this year (33-20)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Louisville last year (31-24)
Louisville beat Notre Dame in 2023 (33-20)

ND's OC Gerad Parker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)	191	301	64%	2689	24	8	8.9
Steven Angeli	34	44	77%	504	7	1	11.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Audric Estime	210	1341	18	6.4	80
Jeremiyah Love	71	385	1	5.4	36
Jadarian Price	47	272	3	5.8	54
Gi'Bran Payne	45	168	2	3.7	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Tyree	26	484	3	18.6	76
Mitchell Evans	29	422	1	14.6	36
Rico Flores	27	392	1	14.5	60
Jordan Faison	19	322	4	16.9	55

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
JD Bertrand	76	8	3	7	5
Howard Cross III	65	7	2	4	2
Jack Kiser	52	1	1	3	1
Xavier Watts	47	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)	46	10	5	8	1
Jordan Botelho	29	5	4	3	0
Marist Liufau	42	6	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah	20	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Benjamin Morrison	30	4	0	0	9
JD Bertrand	76	8	3	7	5
Cam Hart	19	2	0	0	4

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)	256	395	65%	3204	21	12	8.1
Brock Domann	5	5	100%	44	0	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jawhar Jordan	181	1128	13	6.2	74
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)	132	810	11	6.1	73
Maurice Turner	62	284	1	4.6	41
Keyjuan Brown	11	65	1	5.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)	63	858	6	13.6	85
Chris Bell	29	407	2	14.0	48
Kevin Coleman Jr.	24	332	2	13.8	58
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	20	312	4	15.6	55

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
TJ Quinn	87	2	1	5	2
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	0	0	6
Cam'Ron Kelly	64	5	0	1	2
Jaylin Alderman	57	7	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Gillotte	41	12	10	6	0
Mason Reiger	20	6	5	3	2
Ramon Puryear	19	6	4	3	0
Jared Dawson	13	4	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quincy Riley	49	2	10
Jarvis Brownlee	30	1	6
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	6