Cincinnati at TCU - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
TCU -3.0 (58.5) (-150) Open: -4.5 | 58.0
TCU 45 - Cincinnati: 23 (Big 12)

Bearcats (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Thunderstorm Predicted
TCU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: TCU -2 (SP+ TCU -2)
Projected Score: CIN: 27 - TCU: 29 (56)
TCU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
CIN Travel: 844 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CIN Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Cincinnati vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Cincinnati vs Bowling Green	-21.5	46.5	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/13	Cincinnati vs Northwestern State	-48.5	55.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Cincinnati at Kansas	+5.5	55.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Cincinnati vs Iowa State	-1.5	55.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Cincinnati vs UCF	-10.0	55.5	W 20 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/18	Cincinnati at Oklahoma State	-23.5	57.5	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Cincinnati vs Baylor	-3.5	68.5	W 41 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Cincinnati at Utah	+11.5	57.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Cincinnati vs Arizona	-6.5	56.5	L 24 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/22	Cincinnati vs BYU	+2.5	56.5	L 14 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/29	Cincinnati at TCU	+3.0	58.5	L 23 - 45	O	N
Fri 1/2	Cincinnati vs Navy	+4.0	54.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

TCU's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/1	TCU at North Carolina	-3.0	59.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	TCU vs Abilene Christian	-42.5	60.5	W 42 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/20	TCU vs SMU	-6.5	63.5	W 35 - 24	U	Y
Fri 9/26	TCU at Arizona State	+2.5	54.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/4	TCU vs Colorado	-13.5	57.5	W 35 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/11	TCU at Kansas State	-3.0	54.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	TCU vs Baylor	-3.5	66.5	W 42 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/25	TCU at West Virginia	-16.5	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	TCU vs Iowa State	-7.5	58.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/15	TCU at BYU	+3.0	51.5	L 13 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/22	TCU at Houston	-1.5	55.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/29	TCU vs Cincinnati	-3.0	58.5	W 45 - 23	O	Y
Tue 12/30	TCU vs USC	+4.5	56.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CIN	#11 (.32)	48% (16)	31.8	51% (8)	3.6 (1)	180	47% (24)	241	4.66 (12)	#105 (.21)	45% (110)	24.8	46% (114)	43% (86)	3.81 (84)	64.2	1	0.8
TCU	#43 (.21)	44% (48)	30.7	42% (89)	2.64 (120)	123	47% (20)	270	4.04 (37)	#60 (.15)	41% (59)	25.3	39% (36)	43% (85)	3.46 (55)	55.8	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)		44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)		46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)		45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)		46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CIN Offense	12	31.8	30.8	48.1%	4.66	1	20	422	180	241	6	48%	50%	51%	47%	12%	.32
TCU Defense	13	25.3	24.2	41%	3.46	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	39%	43%	15%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CIN Defense	12	24.8	35.3	44.7%	3.81	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	46%	43%	13%	.21
TCU Offense	13	30.7	36	44.3%	4.04	1.5	21	393	123	270	4	46%	52%	42%	47%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Cincinnati	12	24:06	20.3	40%	73%	6.9	64.2	1	0.8	4.5	1.8	1	29.4
TCU	13	26:42	20.6	47%	63%	6	55.8	1.5	1.5	4.9	1.8	1	30.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CIN Offense	12	48% (81)	51% (8)	30.3	180.4	6	20 (40)	.26 (9)	3.6 (1)	76% (43)	6% (6)	1.01 (52)
TCU Defense	13	48% (50)	39% (36)	-	-	-	-	.07 (53)	2.9 (73)	70% (61)	9% (75)	0.87 (22)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CIN Defense	12	52% (101)	46% (114)	-	-	-	-	.17 (107)	3.26 (124)	77% (111)	8% (113)	0.93 (54)
TCU Offense	13	46% (101)	42% (89)	30.9	122.8	4	17 (60)	.02 (116)	2.64 (120)	77% (36)	9% (64)	0.81 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CIN Offense	12	50% (64)	47% (24)	17.7	28.6	241.3	8.4	13.7	28 (6)	5 (3)	.46 (11)	1.6 (41)	29% (29)	34% (27)	.45 (19)	6% (54)	2.2 (22)
TCU Defense	13	50% (87)	43% (85)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (22)	.28 (84)	1.6 (103)	31% (72)	32% (95)	.34 (94)	6% (81)	2.1 (98)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CIN Defense	12	47% (48)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	2 (132)	.26 (76)	1.5 (36)	29% (113)	33% (108)	.34 (93)	5% (122)	2 (61)
TCU Offense	13	52% (36)	47% (20)	21.3	32.3	270.2	8.4	12.7	29 (3)	14 (108)	.43 (19)	1.6 (32)	32% (88)	33% (29)	.42 (26)	6% (73)	2.1 (29)

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 17.50 #26
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 23.54 #11
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 6.04 #52
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.3 #49
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #39
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #64

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: 17.50 TCU: 13.86

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: 6.3 TCU: 8.2

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 13.86 #33
TCU's Offense Rating: 16.96 #30
TCU's Defense Rating: 2.44 #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2 #39
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #37
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #48

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 29
Cincinnati 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 27
Cincinnati 20

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
TCU 32
Cincinnati 28

Total Points: 60

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	TCU	45	Cincinnati	23	TCU -3.0	TCU	58.5	Over
2024	11/30	Cincinnati	13	TCU	20	TCU -2.5	TCU	58.5	Under
2004	10/30	Cincinnati	21	TCU	10
2003	11/15	TCU	43	Cincinnati	10
2002	09/02	Cincinnati	36	TCU	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	3	2	1 Overs
Cincinnati	2	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 4	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#26) CIN at (#33) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CIN	TCU
Power RatePwr	#26	#33
SP+SP+	#49	#39
Perf GradeGrade	#31	#40
OffenseOff	#12	#35
DefenseDef	#77	#41
Spec TeamsST	#88	#67
TalentTal	#53	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#31

Cincinnati Notes(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report

TCU Notes(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	TCU Def
Perf GradePerf	#12	#41
SuccessSuc	#16	#59
ExplosiveExp	#44	#79
PPAPPA	#11	#60
PowerPwr	#11	#33
SP+SP+	#39	#48
Pts POPPO	#12	#55
HavocHav	#14	#79

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#20	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#36
Run ExplRExp	#52	#22
PPAExp	#9	#53
Run BlockR Blk	#9	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#103
TackleTak	-	#10

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#92
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#85
Pass ExplPExl	#41	#103
PPAExp	#11	#84
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#60	#106
F7 HavocF7	#6	#75
DB HavocDB	#54	#81

TCU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	CIN Def
Perf GradePerf	#35	#77
SuccessSuc	#48	#110
ExplosiveExp	#48	#29
PPAPPA	#43	#105
PowerPwr	#30	#52
SP+SP+	#37	#64
Pts POPPO	#37	#84
HavocHav	#61	#121

TCU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#72	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#114
Run ExplRExp	#124	#54
PPAExp	#116	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	#120	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#121	#121
TackleTak	-	#44

TCU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#36
PPAExp	#19	#76
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#40	#133
F7 HavocF7	#64	#113
DB HavocDB	#73	#122

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Thunderstorm
Temp: 67° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 14
TCU -3.0 (58.5)
TCU won vs Cincinnati this year (45-23)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Cincinnati last year (20-13)

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby	206	335	62%	2786	26	5	8.3
Brady Lichtenberg	4	6	67%	56	1	0	9.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)	120	709	4	5.9	54
Brendan Sorsby	100	580	9	5.8	41
Evan Pryor	76	522	3	6.9	46
Manny Covey	16	116	1	7.3	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)	48	651	11	13.6	88
Caleb Goodie (Tr)	29	484	2	16.7	82
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)	32	478	6	14.9	40
Joe Royer	29	416	4	14.3	73

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Golday	95	4	4	2	3
Trevon Gola-Callard	67	4	0	0	3
Jonathan Thompson	59	8	1	2	0
Christian Harrison (Tr)	55	3	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Golday	95	4	4	2	3
Jalen Hunt	24	6	4	0	0
Jack Dingle	45	3	2	3	0
Montay Weedon	24	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Christian Harrison (Tr)	55	3	7
Logan Wilson	33	2	6
Jiquan Sanks	45	2	4

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	272	413	66%	3472	29	13	8.4
Ken Seals	4	6	67%	24	0	1	4.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremy Payne	97	550	4	5.7	51
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)	97	443	3	4.6	75
Trent Battle	62	345	6	5.6	65
Jon Denman	44	147	2	3.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric McAlister	64	1121	10	17.5	85
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)	54	730	7	13.5	69
Joseph Manjack	41	551	3	13.4	51
D'Andre Rogers	32	300	2	9.4	39

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	119	10	4	5	2
Jamel Johnson	89	3	0	0	3
Namdi Obiazor	81	4	2	1	1
Bud Clark	54	2	1	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	119	10	4	5	2
Devean Deal	50	9	4	8	4
Kylin Jackson (Tr)	26	5	3	2	1
Paul Oyewale	24	8	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Vernon Glover	35	1	0	0	6
Bud Clark	54	2	1	1	5
Devean Deal	50	9	4	8	4