TCU at West Virginia - 2025 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at West Virginia MountaineersWest Virginia logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
TCU -16.5 (55.5) (-750)  Open: -14.5
TCU 23 - West Virginia: 17  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
TCU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: TCU -14  (SP+ TCU -15.5)

Projected Score: TCU: 35 - WVU: 21 (56)
TCU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
TCU Travel: 1081 miles, 1 hrs behind
Mountaineers (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (60 - 26)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (23 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.566.5W 42 - 36OY
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-16.555.5W 23 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-7.558.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+3.051.5L 13 - 44ON
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-1.555.5W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-3.058.5W 45 - 23OY
Tue 12/30 TCU vs USC+4.556.5W 30 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.056.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 West Virginia at Ohio-3.558.5L 10 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.554.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 West Virginia at Kansas+12.554.5L 10 - 41UN
Sat 9/27 West Virginia vs Utah+13.546.5L 14 - 48ON
Fri 10/3 West Virginia at BYU+19.546.5L 24 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 West Virginia at UCF+6.546.5L 13 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 West Virginia vs TCU+16.555.5L 17 - 23UY
Sat 11/1 West Virginia at Houston+13.548.5W 45 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 West Virginia vs Colorado-6.551.5W 29 - 22UY
Sat 11/15 West Virginia at Arizona State+10.046.5L 23 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.553.5L 0 - 49UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for West Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#43 (.21)44% (48)30.742% (89)2.64 (120)12347% (20)2704.04 (37)#60 (.15)41% (59)25.339% (36)43% (85)3.46 (55)55.81.51.5
WVU#119 (.07)37% (122)21.839% (114)2.66 (117)16134% (130)1893.53 (85)#64 (.16)40% (54)30.839% (34)43% (81)3.9 (94)561.51.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
WVU#63 (.2)43% (69)44% (75)3.05 (64)19641% (73)2104.6 (16)#124 (.3)45% (103)41% (46)49% (128)4.74 (131)33.91.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1330.725.544.3%4.041.521393123270446%52%42%47%15%.21
WVU Defense1230.828.240.5%3.91.7 - - - - - 49%49%39%43%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1325.326.241%3.461.5 - - - - - 48%50%39%43%15%.15
WVU Offense1221.822.736.8%3.531.5193501611893.757%42%39%34%16%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1326:4220.647%63%655.81.51.54.91.8130.4
West Virginia1226:1818.830%45%5.8561.51.76.72.4128.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1346% (101)42% (89)30.9122.8417 (60).02 (116)2.64 (120)77% (36)9% (64)0.81 (124)
WVU Defense1249% (58)39% (34) - - - - .02 (26)2.42 (8)73% (80)12% (14)0.95 (67)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1348% (50)39% (36) - - - - .07 (53)2.9 (73)70% (61)9% (75)0.87 (22)
WVU Offense1257% (20)39% (114)43.6160.73.722 (36)-.02 (126)2.66 (117)62% (121)10% (103)0.89 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1352% (36)47% (20)21.332.3270.28.412.729 (3)14 (108).43 (19)1.6 (32)32% (88)33% (29).42 (26)6% (73)2.1 (29)
WVU Defense1249% (82)43% (81) - - - - - - 11 (22).33 (105)1.7 (125)34% (28)33% (113).42 (122)6% (70)2.1 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1350% (87)43% (85) - - - - - - 12 (22).28 (84)1.6 (103)31% (72)32% (95).34 (94)6% (81)2.1 (98)
WVU Offense1242% (116)34% (130)1627.3188.96.911.810 (128)11 (88).2 (98)1.7 (23)30% (54)26% (114).21 (98)6% (59)2.1 (51)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.52  #33
TCU's Offense Rating: 16.96  #30
TCU's Defense Rating: 2.44  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16%  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2  #39
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #37
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #48

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 14.52   West Virginia: -2.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.2   West Virginia: -7.2




West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: -2.49  #81
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 3.22  #106
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 6.00  #51
2025 Talent Rating: 808.00  #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
West Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
West Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #93
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #102
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.3  #90

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 35
West Virginia 21


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 37
West Virginia 24

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
TCU 29
West Virginia 24

Total Points: 53
West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.7
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.2

West Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25West Virginia17TCU23TCU -16.5West Virginia55.5Under
202309/30TCU21West Virginia24TCU -14West Virginia52.0Under
202210/29West Virginia31TCU41TCU -7TCU70.0Over
202110/23TCU17West Virginia29TCU -5West Virginia58.0Under
202011/14West Virginia24TCU6West Virginia -3West Virginia44.0Under
201911/29TCU17West Virginia20TCU -14West Virginia44.0Under
201811/10West Virginia47TCU10West Virginia -13West Virginia55.5Over
201710/07TCU31West Virginia24TCU -12.5West Virginia67.0Under
201610/22West Virginia34TCU10West Virginia -5West Virginia65.0Under
201510/29TCU40West Virginia10TCU -14.5TCU72.5Under
201411/01West Virginia30TCU31TCU -4West Virginia0
201311/02TCU27West Virginia30TCU -14West Virginia0
201211/03West Virginia38TCU39
TeamWinsCoversO/U
West Virginia7102 Overs
TCU628 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 86 - 64 - 52 - 1
Road Teams8 - 56 - 61 - 25 - 4

(#33) TCU at (#81) WVU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUWVU
Power RatePwr #33 #81
SP+SP+ #39 #93
Perf GradeGrade #40 #130
OffenseOff #35 #132
DefenseDef #41 #121
Spec TeamsST #67 #59
TalentTal #29 #50
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #56
TCU Notes
(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report
West Virginia Notes
(10/27) Def spirited vs TCU, Fox 300 yds, but can't run
(10/18) Getting real bad, killed by UCF. Just too many injuries
(10/18) Outgained 550+ to 200 yds vs UCF? Coming unglued
(10/4) QB1 is Fr Khalil Wilkins, mobile and not ready. Woof
(10/1) Starting QB Marchiol redshirting & transferring
(9/20) Killed by KU, just don't have Off weapons or QB
(9/14) Gutsy comeback W vs Pitt. Plays hard for staff
(9/8) Star RB Jahiem White out for season (knee)
(9/8) Starting WR J Bray out for season (leg)
(8/30) Ran for nearly 400< Marchiol efficient vs RMU
(8/20) DE/LB Robinson likely academically ineligible
(6/11) RB White a top B12 RB, Edwards (FCS) 1k LY
West Virginia Injury Report
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffWVU Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #121
SuccessSuc #48 #54
ExplosiveExp #48 #125
PPAPPA #43 #64
PowerPwr #30 #51
SP+SP+ #37 #90
Pts POPPO #37 #94
HavocHav #61 #28
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffWVU Def
Run GameRun #72 #92
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #34
Run ExplRExp #124 #67
PPAExp #116 #26
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #8
Stuff RateStuff #121 #17
TackleTak -  #119
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffWVU Def
Pass GamePass #34 #125
Pass SuccessPSuc #20 #81
Pass ExplPExl #32 #125
PPAExp #19 #105
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #40 #102
F7 HavocF7 #64 #14
DB HavocDB #73 #70
West Virginia on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatWVU OffTCU Def
Perf GradePerf #132 #41
SuccessSuc #122 #59
ExplosiveExp #81 #79
PPAPPA #119 #60
PowerPwr #106 #33
SP+SP+ #102 #48
Pts POPPO #85 #55
HavocHav #79 #79
West Virginia Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WVU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #132 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #36
Run ExplRExp #98 #22
PPAExp #126 #53
Run BlockR Blk #129 -
OL YdsOLY #117 #73
Stuff RateStuff #106 #103
TackleTak -  #10
West Virginia Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatWVU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #127 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #130 #85
Pass ExplPExl #23 #103
PPAExp #98 #84
Pass Block/RushP Blk #58 #106
F7 HavocF7 #103 #75
DB HavocDB #59 #81
Program Comparison
WVU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 49° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 9
TCU 16.5 (55.5)
TCU won at West Virginia this year (23-17)

Previous Matchups
West Virginia beat TCU in 2023 (24-21)
TCU beat West Virginia in 2022 (41-31)

  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover27241366%347229138.4
Ken Seals4667%24014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne9755045.751
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)9744334.675
Trent Battle6234565.665
Jon Denman4414723.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister6411211017.585
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)54730713.569
Joseph Manjack41551313.451
D'Andre Rogers3230029.439

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr11910452
Jamel Johnson893003
Namdi Obiazor814211
Bud Clark542115
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr11910452
Devean Deal509484
Kylin Jackson (Tr)265321
Paul Oyewale248210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vernon Glover351006
Bud Clark542115
Devean Deal509484

WVU's OC Rich Rodriguez (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Scotty Fox Jr.10117059%1276767.5
Nicco Marchiol669867%720227.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diore Hubbard9633543.529
Cyncir Bowers6324924.026
Khalil Wilkins5824324.222
Scotty Fox Jr.8420132.459
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Vaughn (Tr)35540415.446
Jeff Weimer (Tr)21383218.275
Rodney Gallagher2824308.726
Grayson Barnes (Tr)21232211.034

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fred Perry (Tr)7810323
Darrian Lewis (Tr)751010
Reid Carrico698551
Chase Wilson (Tr)465312
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Carrico698551
Fred Perry (Tr)7810323
Chase Wilson (Tr)465312
Devin Grant (Tr)205301
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Coats Jr. (Tr)302007
Jason Chambers (Tr)343004
Derek Carter (Tr)312004