TCU at BYU - 2025 Matchup Preview
TCU logo   TCU Horned Frogs at BYU Cougars  BYU logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (10:15 PM EST)
BYU -3 (51.5) (-155)  Open: -4.5
BYU 44 - TCU: 13  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: BYU -6  (SP+ BYU -8)
Projected Score: TCU: 23 - BYU: 29 (52)
BYU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TCU Travel: 948 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Cougars (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (71 - 43)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (41 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.7 - 2.3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.566.5W 42 - 36OY
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-16.555.5W 23 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-7.558.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+3.051.5L 13 - 44ON
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-1.555.5W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-3.058.5W 45 - 23OY
Tue 12/30 TCU vs USC+4.556.5W 30 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
BYU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 BYU vs Portland State-43.561.5W 69 - 0OY
Sat 9/6 BYU vs Stanford-20.544.5W 27 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 BYU at East Carolina-6.549.5W 34 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 BYU at Colorado-6.548.5W 24 - 21UN
Fri 10/3 BYU vs West Virginia-19.546.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/11 BYU at Arizona-2.546.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 BYU vs Utah+4.049.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 BYU at Iowa State+2.548.5W 41 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 BYU at Texas Tech+13.550.5L 7 - 29UN
Sat 11/15 BYU vs TCU-3.051.5W 44 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 BYU at Cincinnati-2.556.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 BYU vs UCF-17.546.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 12/6 BYU vs Texas Tech+12.550.5L 7 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 BYU vs Georgia Tech-3.555.0W 25 - 21UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)30.745% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)25.346% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)31.447% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)19.146% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BYU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1330.725.547.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3
BYU Defense1319.113.741.4%3.792.1 - - - - - 51%49%46%37%17%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1325.326.241.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
BYU Offense1331.440.544.7%3.731.4203631482164.752%48%47%43%16%.22

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
BYU1328:3220.535%75%4.4371.42.14.51.2531.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)
BYU Defense1351% (70)46% (99) - - - - .14 (78)2.8 (36)72% (59)9% (86)0.97 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
BYU Offense1352% (62)47% (30)31.6147.74.718 (78).2 (36)3.23 (37)75% (60)9% (44)0.99 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)
BYU Defense1349% (65)37% (28) - - - - - - 20 (2).12 (21)1.5 (24)31% (83)31% (73).27 (52)8% (11)2 (49)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
BYU Offense1348% (74)43% (59)15.627.3215.87.913.820 (58)11 (72).27 (60)1.7 (33)32% (83)33% (49).34 (65)7% (101)2 (96)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.15  #25
TCU's Offense Rating: 21.60  #22
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.45  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16%  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 14.15   BYU: 17.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.3   BYU: 15.9




BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 17.225  #28
BYU's Offense Rating: 18.12  #37
BYU's Defense Rating: 4.57  #22
2025 Talent Rating: 686.00  #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
BYU's 2025 Expected Record: 11.7 - 2.3
BYU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9  #18
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #24
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 29
TCU 23


Projected Total Points: 52
BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.5
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

BYU's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15BYU44TCU13BYU -3BYU51.5Over
202310/14TCU44BYU11TCU -5TCU52.5Over
201110/28TCU38BYU28
201010/16TCU31BYU3
200910/24BYU7TCU38
200810/16TCU32BYU7
200711/08BYU27TCU22
200609/28TCU17BYU31
200509/24BYU50TCU51
TeamWinsCoversO/U
BYU312 Overs
TCU610 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 32 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams3 - 60 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#25) TCU at (#28) BYU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUBYU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #25 #28
SP+SP+ #37 #18
Perf GradeGrade #26 #29
OffenseOff #34 #26
DefenseDef #27 #56
Spec TeamsST #73 #2
TalentTal #29 #79
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #56
TCU Notes
(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report
BYU Notes
(11/16) Have taken advantage of bad B12 mids. Def good
(8/16) QB1 - Fr Bear Bachmeier looks like starter
(7/30) Def good LY, but lost 8 starters, most of DL
(6/29) QB Retzlaff left after legal trouble, honor code
(6/29) QB huge ? into fall camp, Hillstead early leader
(5/29) DL added 6 portals + 1 meh LB and 1 S
(5/29) WR serious hit with #2 Lassiter denied '25
(5/29) OL returns 3/5, need new T's. 2 portal add
(3/20) RB Martin returns, need #2/depth
(3/20) Sitake & staff incredible job in '24. Tough team
BYU Injury Report
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffBYU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #56
SuccessSuc #20 #65
ExplosiveExp #45 #34
PPAPPA #18 #41
PowerPwr #22 #22
SP+SP+ #30 #22
Pts POPPO #20 #68
HavocHav #28 #49
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffBYU Def
Run GameRun #60 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #99
Run ExplRExp #85 #61
PPAExp #95 #78
Run BlockR Blk #69 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #36
Stuff RateStuff #82 #76
TackleTak -  #102
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffBYU Def
Pass GamePass #22 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #28
Pass ExplPExl #75 #24
PPAExp #5 #21
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #90
F7 HavocF7 #36 #86
DB HavocDB #38 #11
BYU on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBYU OffTCU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #26 #27
SuccessSuc #44 #67
ExplosiveExp #48 #52
PPAPPA #51 #82
PowerPwr #37 #33
SP+SP+ #24 #50
Pts POPPO #88 #72
HavocHav #64 #102
BYU Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BYU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #27 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #30 #102
Run ExplRExp #56 #87
PPAExp #36 #118
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLY #37 #104
Stuff RateStuff #89 #87
TackleTak -  #8
BYU Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBYU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #62 #74
Pass SuccessPSuc #59 #18
Pass ExplPExl #33 #57
PPAExp #60 #40
Pass Block/RushP Blk #40 #103
F7 HavocF7 #44 #105
DB HavocDB #101 #81
Program Comparison
BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in LaVell Edwards Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
BYU -3.0 (51.5)
BYU won vs TCU this year (44-13)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat TCU last year (44-13)
TCU beat BYU in 2023 (44-11)

  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover27241366%347229138.4
Ken Seals334672%282126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)9744334.675
Trent Battle6434965.565
Jon Denman5017833.616
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister7211901016.585
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)54730713.569
Joseph Manjack44579313.251
D'Andre Rogers3431929.439

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Jamel Johnson963003
Namdi Obiazor884211
Bud Clark562117
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Devean Deal539494
Kylin Jackson (Tr)265321
Paul Oyewale318220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bud Clark562117
Vernon Glover411006
Devean Deal539494

BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)25138765%30331577.8
Parker Kingston1617%22003.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin2361305125.549
Bear Bachmeier (Tr)147527113.622
Parker Kingston2612334.720
Jovesa Damuni1911115.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Kingston66924514.075
Chase Roberts54802614.985
Carsen Ryan (Tr)45620313.843
LJ Martin3625507.126

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Faletau Satuala798114
Tanner Wall641000
Isaiah Glasker639391
Jack Kelly52141071
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly52141071
Isaiah Glasker639391
Bodie Schoonover335333
Keanu Tanuvasa (Tr)225233
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Evan Johnson422107
Logan Lutui505045
Therrian Alexander313125