Iowa State at TCU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Iowa State logo Iowa State Cyclones at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
TCU -7.5 (58.5) (-298)  Open: -3.0
Iowa State 20 - TCU: 17  (Big 12)

 
Cyclones (8 - 4) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (22 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
TCU coming off BYE
Our Line: TCU -4  (SP+ ISU -1.5)

Projected Score: ISU: 26 - TCU: 30 (55)
TCU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ISU Travel: 675 miles
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-4.048.5W 39 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.555.5L 30 - 38ON
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-3.052.5L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-2.548.5L 27 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.548.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+7.558.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-3.055.5W 38 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 20 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-6.563.5W 35 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+2.554.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-13.557.5W 35 - 21UY
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-3.054.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-3.566.5W 42 - 36OY
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-16.555.5W 23 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-7.558.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU+3.051.5L 13 - 44ON
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-1.555.5W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-3.058.5W 45 - 23OY
Tue 12/30 TCU vs USC+4.556.5W 30 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)27.440% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)20.246% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)30.745% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)25.346% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense1427.422.240.4%4.231.1213871502364.451%49%40%41%14%.2
TCU Defense1325.324.241.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense1420.221.642.6%3.441.5 - - - - - 55%45%46%38%15%.18
TCU Offense1330.73647.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State1430:0020.942%81%3.625.91.11.54.71.1130
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense1451% (68)40% (106)34.4150.24.424 (45).12 (74)2.83 (102)70% (88)8% (22)1.1 (19)
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense1455% (114)46% (101) - - - - .22 (114)3.05 (76)76% (81)9% (85)1.08 (112)
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense1449% (67)41% (77)18.331.1236.47.612.922 (46)10 (63).29 (49)1.7 (27)30% (52)35% (29).39 (41)7% (94)2 (70)
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense1445% (21)38% (41) - - - - - - 14 (23).17 (36)1.6 (73)32% (63)32% (86).32 (78)5% (86)2 (48)
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 9.32  #41
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 19.26  #32
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 9.94  #45
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00  #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9  #33
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #63
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 9.32   TCU: 13.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 9.9   TCU: 8.3




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 13.725  #25
TCU's Offense Rating: 21.60  #22
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.45  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.6

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 30
Iowa State 26


Projected Total Points: 55
TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08TCU17Iowa State20TCU -7.5Iowa State58.5Under
202310/07Iowa State27TCU14TCU -6.5Iowa State52.5Under
202211/26TCU62Iowa State14TCU -9.5TCU46.0Over
202111/26Iowa State48TCU14Iowa State -16Iowa State61.5Over
202009/26TCU34Iowa State37Iowa State -4.5TCU43.5Over
201910/05Iowa State49TCU24Iowa State -3Iowa State45.0Over
201809/29TCU17Iowa State14TCU -11Iowa State44.5Under
201710/28Iowa State14TCU7TCU -7Iowa State48.5Under
201609/17TCU41Iowa State20TCU -23.5Iowa State60.5Over
201510/17Iowa State21TCU45TCU -18TCU68.0Under
201412/06TCU55Iowa State3TCU -33TCU0
201311/09Iowa State17TCU21TCU -8Iowa State0
201210/06TCU23Iowa State37
200512/31Iowa State24TCU27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU745 Overs
Iowa State785 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 68 - 44 - 34 - 1
Road Teams6 - 84 - 81 - 43 - 4

(#41) ISU at (#25) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatISUTCU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #41 #25
SP+SP+ #33 #37
Perf GradeGrade #56 #26
OffenseOff #45 #34
DefenseDef #83 #27
Spec TeamsST #107 #73
TalentTal #66 #29
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #31
Iowa State Notes
(12/7) Declined bowl game. 2025 season is over.
(12/5) HC Matt Campbell going to Penn State
(12/5) Hired HC Jimmy Rogers, Wazzu HC (S Dak St too)
(10/25) DT D Orange will play vs BYU, big add
(10/4) Def torched by Cincy, Becht was tough but Def sucks
(10/3) CB2 J. Cooper out for the season (knee). Down top 2
(10/1) CB1 J Williams out for the season (ACL) - big loss
(10/1) Backup kicker J Gilbert also hurt, Fr kicking now
(9/26) Kicker K. Konrardy is hurt, Fr C. Smith kicking
(9/15) Keep winning 1 score games, Run Succ ?
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
Iowa State Injury Report
TCU Notes
(12/11) Hired UConn OC Gordon Sammis. Pot. good upgrade
(11/16) Frogs disappointing. No show vs decent teams
(10/27) Even box score @ WVU? Frogs not road warriors
(10/12) Blew season vs K St, Run Off bad, Run Def worse
(9/27) Run Off awful vs ASU, Def torched 500 yds, 200 rush
(9/27) 3 TOs, 8 penalties, outgained 500-271 and lost by 3
(9/20) Hoover great, Run Off meh, R Def great vs SMU
(9/20) WR McAlister one of best in CFB, great weapon
(9/1) Killed NC, Run game dominant, Run Def great
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
TCU Injury Report
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffTCU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #45 #27
SuccessSuc #99 #67
ExplosiveExp #7 #52
PPAPPA #62 #82
PowerPwr #32 #33
SP+SP+ #63 #50
Pts POPPO #37 #72
HavocHav #40 #102
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #39 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #106 #102
Run ExplRExp #19 #87
PPAExp #74 #118
Run BlockR Blk #64 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #104
Stuff RateStuff #115 #87
TackleTak -  #8
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #24 #74
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #18
Pass ExplPExl #27 #57
PPAExp #49 #40
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #92 #103
F7 HavocF7 #22 #105
DB HavocDB #94 #81
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffISU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #83
SuccessSuc #20 #81
ExplosiveExp #45 #83
PPAPPA #18 #79
PowerPwr #22 #45
SP+SP+ #30 #25
Pts POPPO #20 #29
HavocHav #28 #84
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffISU Def
Run GameRun #60 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #101
Run ExplRExp #85 #112
PPAExp #95 #114
Run BlockR Blk #69 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #76
Stuff RateStuff #82 #43
TackleTak -  #126
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #22 #32
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #41
Pass ExplPExl #75 #73
PPAExp #5 #36
Pass Block/RushP Blk #32 #128
F7 HavocF7 #36 #85
DB HavocDB #38 #86
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 11
TCU -7.5 (58.5)
Iowa State won at TCU this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat TCU last year (20-17)
Iowa State beat TCU in 2023 (27-14)

  
ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht20433761%25651697.6
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen18795065.165
Abu Sama III14173255.244
Dylan Lee2511714.728
Rocco Becht8711181.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen30526517.575
Chase Sowell (Tr)32500215.652
Benjamin Brahmer37446612.127
Gabe Burkle26302111.644

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kooper Ebel778153
Marcus Neal7711133
Caleb Bacon6810343
Jamison Patton481003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Bacon6810343
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)264240
Will McLaughlin132201
Kooper Ebel778153
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ta'Shawn James330005
Quentin Taylor Jr.272005
Kooper Ebel778153

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover27241366%347229138.4
Ken Seals334672%282126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)9744334.675
Trent Battle6434965.565
Jon Denman5017833.616
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister7211901016.585
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)54730713.569
Joseph Manjack44579313.251
D'Andre Rogers3431929.439

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Jamel Johnson963003
Namdi Obiazor884211
Bud Clark562117
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Elarms-Orr13011462
Devean Deal539494
Kylin Jackson (Tr)265321
Paul Oyewale318220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bud Clark562117
Vernon Glover411006
Devean Deal539494