Iowa State at TCU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Iowa State logo (#12)Iowa State Cyclones at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX  (Big 12)

 
Cyclones (4 - 0) (2 - 1 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 30 - 14 (24 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 2.8 (#18)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
TCU coming off BYE
Our Line: TCU -6   (SP+ -0)

Projected Score: ISU: 24 - TCU: 30 (53)
TCU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
ISU Travel: 675 miles
Horned Frogs (2 - 0) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 18 (42 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 2.6 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 8) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-8.5
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-4
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-2
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-6.5
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-17.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-3.059.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.560.5W 42 - 21ON
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-7.064.5
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State-0.5
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-17
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State-9
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-8.5
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-6
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU-2.5
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-10.5
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-7.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 8, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 8, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#45 (.29)45% (56)29.840% (94)2.87 (82)16151% (28)2224.14 (63)#41 (.05)36% (48)14.340% (75)33% (35)3 (50)2711.5
TCU#7 (.5)57% (9)4554% (24)3.3 (35)19359% (6)3235.08 (29)#102 (.2)42% (83)17.540% (72)46% (104)3.8 (81)5211.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense429.82445.5%4.141203831612224.254%46%40%51%14%.29
TCU Defense217.52142.2%3.81.5 - - - - - 58%42%40%46%19%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense414.31636.4%31.5 - - - - - 50%50%40%33%19%.05
TCU Offense2454257%5.081275161933236.143%57%54%59%8%.5

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State430:5020.350%100%32711.561.8031.5
TCU227:4326.570%100%4.55211.57.53125.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense454% (50)40% (94)381614.27 (38).12 (76)2.87 (82)71% (67)8% (53)0.95 (70)
TCU Defense258% (120)40% (72) - - - - .13 (98)3.13 (106)100% (127)15% (15)0.93 (70)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense450% (67)40% (75) - - - - -.03 (39)2.75 (66)69% (63)12% (44)0.7 (15)
TCU Offense243% (108)54% (24)31.51936.14 (79).2 (48)3.3 (35)100% (1)5% (8)0.84 (97)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense446% (84)51% (28)17.326.32228.512.97 (23)1 (23).48 (26)1.4 (93)29% (51)30% (77).35 (63)6% (95)1.9 (87)
TCU Defense242% (19)46% (104) - - - - - - 1 (87).29 (97)2.2 (135)30% (97)48% (133)1.17 (136)3% (120)2.8 (133)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense450% (71)33% (35) - - - - - - 4 (12).12 (42)1.8 (116)35% (43)27% (50).12 (36)7% (38)1.7 (36)
TCU Offense257% (25)59% (6)2634.5322.59.412.46 (34)2 (60).72 (7)1.7 (36)27% (37)52% (3)1.12 (1)3% (26)2.5 (14)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 15.62 #38
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 18.04 #36
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 2.42 #41
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #23
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #43
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 15.62   TCU: 21.01

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 14.3   TCU: 14.3




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 21.01 #23
TCU's Offense Rating: 28.98 #7
TCU's Defense Rating: 6.25 #63
2025 Talent Rating: 882.00 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #23
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #12
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #42

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 14.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 30
Iowa State 24


Total Points: 53

TCU Scoring
Offense: 45 PPG
Offense at Home: 42
Defense: 17.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/07Iowa State27TCU14Iowa StateTCU -6.5Iowa State52.5Under
202211/26TCU62Iowa State14TCUTCU -9.5TCU46.0Over
202111/26Iowa State48TCU14Iowa StateIowa State -16Iowa State61.5Over
202009/26TCU34Iowa State37Iowa StateIowa State -4.5TCU43.5Over
201910/05Iowa State49TCU24Iowa StateIowa State -3Iowa State45.0Over
201809/29TCU17Iowa State14TCUTCU -11Iowa State44.5Under
201710/28Iowa State14TCU7Iowa StateTCU -7Iowa State48.5Under
201609/17TCU41Iowa State20TCUTCU -23.5Iowa State60.5Over
201510/17Iowa State21TCU45TCUTCU -18TCU68.0Under
201412/06TCU55Iowa State3TCUTCU -33TCU0
201311/09Iowa State17TCU21TCUTCU -8Iowa State0
201210/06TCU23Iowa State37Iowa State
200512/31Iowa State24TCU27TCU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU745 Overs
Iowa State674 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 58 - 34 - 24 - 1
Road Teams5 - 83 - 81 - 42 - 4

(#38) Iowa State Info
Power Rating: 15.62 #38
Offense Rating: 18.04 #36
Defense Rating: 2.42 #41
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #23
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #43
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15
Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.14 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 36%
Avg in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Good Pass Def Success 33%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Iowa State has lost 5 straight
Iowa State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Iowa State Notes
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
(5/23) ISU was 5-1 in 1 score games LY
(4/4) CB Jontez Williams a top 10 CB via PFF
(4/4) DT D. Orange a top 10 DT via PFF
(3/20) QB Becht returns, dynamic & clutch
(3/20) RB Hansen/Sama return, v good combo
(3/20) WR rebuild, portal Sowell (ECU) helps a lot
(3/20) OL 3/5 back, 2 w/ good exp. Must improve TY
(3/20) Def exposed LY, need new DE's & more

Iowa State Highlights
Iowa State in Undefeated

Iowa State has Really Good Running Game (#22)
Iowa State offense is good on 3rd downs
Iowa State commits very few Penalties (#25)
Iowa State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Iowa State Deficiencies
Iowa State Fumbles a Lot (#113)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTCUISU
OverallOver#20#19
OffenseOff#9#19
DefenseDef#35#53
Special TeamsST#63#14
PassingPass#6#10
RushingRush#31#48
Run BlockRBLK#43#32
Pass BlockPBLK#19#58
Route RunningWR Rt#12#31
TacklingTkl#19#72
Run DefenseR Def#19#43
Pass Rush DefPRush#52#91
Coverage DefCov#52#42

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat TCU in 2023 (27-14)
TCU beat Iowa State in 2022 (62-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ISU | TCU
Depth Chart: ISU | TCU
Rosters: ISU | TCU
(#23) TCU Info
Power Rating: 21.01 #23
Offense Rating: 28.98 #7
Defense Rating: 6.25 #63
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3 #23
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #12
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #42
Talent Rating: 882.00 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #31
Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 57%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.08 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Great Pass Success 59%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Poor Pass Def Success 46%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

TCU has lost 6 straight
TCU has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

TCU Notes
(7/13) WR McAlister, Dwyer good duo. Have depth
(5/19) OL returns 3/5, not good LY. 2 FCS portals?
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
(5/19) LB core could be best in B12 led by Obiazor
(5/19) OC Briles has QB Hoover for a 3rd year
(5/2) S Bud Clark led all CFB S in coverage, big talent
(3/24) WR Dwyer (Idaho) a great find/weapon
(3/19) QB Hoover a top in CFB, can depth play?
(3/19) RB rebuild, added Barnes (UTSA), we'll see
(3/19) Def OK LY, lacked playmakers. Some exp.

TCU Highlights
TCU in Undefeated
TCU is Undefeated at Home

TCU offense is efficent (#9)
TCU offense is good in red zone (#29)
TCU offense is good on 3rd downs
TCU Front 7 is disruptive (#15)
TCU has a great TO Margin (#28)
TCU commits very few Penalties (#6)

TCU Deficiencies
TCU gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#121)
TCU Does Not Stuff Runs (#113)
TCU has a bad defensive line (#106)


  
Iowa State's OC Taylor Mouser
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht6510065%860718.6
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen5425204.738
Abu Sama III3818224.844
Dylan Lee138116.228
Rocco Becht274821.810
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen7162123.166
Gabe Burkle10149114.944
Xavier Townsend (Tr)7132018.944
Benjamin Brahmer1410937.821

View Iowa State's Full Roster
Iowa State's DC Jon Heacock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Neal295101
Jamison Patton210001
Caleb Bacon193020
Kooper Ebel182110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)83220
Marcus Neal295101
Kooper Ebel182110
Ikenna Ezeogu43141
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Cooper92003
Ta'Shawn James80003
Jontez Williams122002

TCU's OC Kendal Briles
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover486376%621619.9
Ken Seals4667%24014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)2115617.475
Nate Palmer138806.826
Jeremy Payne115705.229
Trent Battle54829.628
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)14225216.133
Joseph Manjack6138023.051
Eric McAlister566013.233
D'Andre Rogers65118.514

View TCU's Full Roster
TCU's DC Andy Avalos
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson141000
Namdi Obiazor121110
Devean Deal101010
Kaleb Elarms-Orr100000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ansel Din-Mbuh (Tr)63200
Namdi Obiazor121110
Jonathan Bax52100
Zachary Chapman21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jevon McIver Jr.31002
Austin Jordan20001
Gil Jackson10001