Kentucky at Georgia - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Georgia -19.5 (48.5) (-1450) Open: -20.5
Georgia 35 - Kentucky: 14 (SEC)

Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

UK 2nd straight Road Game
UGA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Georgia -21.5 (SP+ UGA -22)
Projected Score: UK: 13 - UGA: 35 (48)
UGA Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
UK Travel: 288 miles

Bulldogs (12 - 2) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kirby Smart (105 - 18)
Avg Score : 32 - 18 (35 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
UK Players
UGA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Kentucky vs Toledo	-10.0	48.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/6	Kentucky vs Ole Miss	+8.0	51.5	L 23 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan	-26.5	49.5	W 48 - 23	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Kentucky at South Carolina	+5.5	46.5	L 13 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/4	Kentucky at Georgia	+19.5	48.5	L 14 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Kentucky vs Texas	+12.5	45.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+7.5	55.5	L 34 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/1	Kentucky at Auburn	+11.5	44.5	W 10 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Kentucky vs Florida	+4.5	44.5	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech	-22.5	52.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	+7.0	53.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/29	Kentucky at Louisville	+1.0	45.5	L 0 - 41	U	N

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Georgia's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Georgia vs Marshall	-39.5	55.5	W 45 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Georgia vs Austin Peay	-47.0	55.5	W 28 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/13	Georgia at Tennessee	-3.5	50.5	W 44 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Georgia vs Alabama	-2.5	53.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/4	Georgia vs Kentucky	-19.5	48.5	W 35 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Georgia at Auburn	-4.5	45.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Georgia vs Ole Miss	-7.5	56.5	W 43 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Georgia vs Florida	-7.0	50.5	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/8	Georgia at Mississippi State	-9.5	56.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Georgia vs Texas	-3.5	50.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Georgia vs Charlotte	-42.5	53.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Fri 11/28	Georgia vs Georgia Tech	-15.5	59.5	W 16 - 9	U	N
Sat 12/6	Georgia vs Alabama	-2.5	47.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Thu 1/1	Georgia vs Ole Miss	-6.0	53.5	L 34 - 39	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)	23	47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)	26.4	49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3
UGA	#37 (.24)	47% (25)	32.1	46% (46)	2.91 (91)	121	47% (16)	264	4.68 (12)	#49 (.14)	39% (32)	17.6	39% (34)	38% (37)	3.22 (19)	51.1	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UGA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Offense	12	23	10.8	41.5%	3.49	1.9	19	331	146	185	4	54%	46%	47%	35%	19%	.09
UGA Defense	14	17.6	14.1	38.8%	3.22	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	39%	38%	17%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Defense	12	26.4	31.8	46%	3.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	42%	17%	.16
UGA Offense	14	32.1	34.6	46.6%	4.68	1.3	21	385	121	264	4.3	43%	57%	46%	47%	15%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kentucky	12	29:32	19.4	34%	44%	6.3	52.1	1.9	1.3	5.6	1.8	2	27
Georgia	14	27:43	20.6	41%	75%	5.4	51.1	1.3	1.4	6.1	2.6	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Offense	12	54% (37)	47% (31)	36.7	146.4	4	11 (116)	.05 (107)	3.02 (71)	73% (71)	13% (120)	0.73 (133)
UGA Defense	14	49% (48)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.1 (59)	2.81 (39)	80% (107)	12% (21)	0.96 (53)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Defense	12	58% (129)	49% (122)	-	-	-	-	.14 (75)	3 (67)	78% (101)	12% (32)	0.88 (24)
UGA Offense	14	43% (112)	46% (46)	28.1	120.6	4.3	24 (45)	.12 (76)	2.91 (91)	73% (67)	9% (47)	0.88 (109)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Offense	12	46% (97)	35% (123)	13.9	26	184.8	7.1	13.3	15 (98)	17 (127)	.13 (117)	1.9 (10)	33% (92)	28% (104)	.18 (114)	7% (103)	2.1 (46)
UGA Defense	14	51% (89)	38% (37)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.17 (37)	1.6 (59)	35% (27)	26% (13)	.23 (36)	5% (110)	2.1 (86)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Defense	12	42% (7)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.19 (46)	1.5 (27)	29% (109)	31% (83)	.3 (68)	5% (95)	2 (61)
UGA Offense	14	57% (22)	47% (16)	22.6	34.4	264.3	7.7	11.7	28 (15)	13 (103)	.34 (31)	1.5 (111)	28% (15)	36% (19)	.39 (47)	7% (95)	1.8 (127)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.03 #45
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.41 #42
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.38 #42
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #66
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #80
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 8.03 Georgia: 26.46

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 1.8 Georgia: 24.1

Georgia's Power Ratings
Georgia's Power Rating: 26.46 #7
Georgia's Offense Rating: 27.56 #3
Georgia's Defense Rating: 3.74 #17
2025 Talent Rating: 1140.00 #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 74 #1
Georgia's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Georgia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #6
Georgia's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #14
Georgia's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.8 #8

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Georgia 35
Kentucky 13

Projected Total Points: 48

Georgia Scoring
Offense: 32.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.6
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.1

Georgia's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Georgia	35	Kentucky	14	Georgia -19.5	Georgia	48.5	Over
2024	09/14	Kentucky	12	Georgia	13	Georgia -24	Kentucky	45.0	Under
2023	10/07	Georgia	51	Kentucky	13	Georgia -14.5	Georgia	47.0	Over
2022	11/19	Kentucky	6	Georgia	16	Georgia -22.5	Kentucky	47.5	Under
2021	10/16	Georgia	30	Kentucky	13	Georgia -21.5	Kentucky	44.5	Under
2020	10/31	Kentucky	3	Georgia	14	Georgia -17	Kentucky	42.0	Under
2019	10/19	Georgia	21	Kentucky	0	Georgia -23.5	Kentucky	45.5	Under
2018	11/03	Kentucky	17	Georgia	34	Georgia -9.5	Georgia	47.5	Over
2017	11/18	Georgia	42	Kentucky	13	Georgia -23.5	Georgia	51.0	Over
2016	11/05	Kentucky	24	Georgia	27	Georgia -2.5	Georgia	52.0	Under
2015	11/07	Georgia	27	Kentucky	3	Georgia -17	Georgia	58.0	Under
2014	11/08	Kentucky	31	Georgia	63	Georgia -13	Georgia	0
2013	11/23	Georgia	59	Kentucky	17	Georgia -26	Georgia	0
2012	10/20	Kentucky	24	Georgia	29
2011	11/19	Georgia	19	Kentucky	10
2010	10/23	Kentucky	31	Georgia	44
2009	11/21	Georgia	27	Kentucky	34
2008	11/08	Kentucky	38	Georgia	42
2007	11/17	Georgia	24	Kentucky	13
2006	11/04	Kentucky	24	Georgia	20
2005	11/19	Georgia	45	Kentucky	13
2004	11/06	Kentucky	17	Georgia	62
2003	11/22	Georgia	30	Kentucky	10
2002	10/26	Kentucky	24	Georgia	52
2001	10/20	Georgia	43	Kentucky	29
2000	10/20	Kentucky	30	Georgia	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia	24	8	4 Overs
Kentucky	2	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	8 - 5	5 - 2	3 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 13	5 - 8	3 - 3	2 - 5

(#45) UK at (#7) UGA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UK	UGA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#45	#7
SP+SP+	#66	#6
Perf GradeGrade	#75	#13
OffenseOff	#89	#23
DefenseDef	#42	#29
Spec TeamsST	#112	#27
TalentTal	#26	#2
Blue ChipsBC%	#23	#1

Kentucky Notes(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report

Georgia Notes(11/16) Killed Texas, Dawgs peaking. Def inj a concern
(10/20) Top WR Colbie Young out for season (fractured leg)
(10/19) Off torched Ole Miss, 500 yds, Rush Off improved
(10/18) At times playing 2 true Fr at OG vs Ole Miss
(9/30) DL cannot get pressure w/o LBs, have zero sacks
(9/15) Stockton, Off took huge leap in Tenn W.
(9/13) Pass Def torched by Tennessee, DB's beat 1-1
(9/8) Young talent on Def loaded w/ future NFL'ers
(8/16) CAMP: Skill players are massive upgrade TY
(8/13) 7 home games, only 3 on road (2 neutral)
(8/12) WR - upgrade w/ Branch/Thomas, top 10 PFF
(7/19) QB Stockton CFP starter, but watch So. Puglisi
Georgia Injury Report

Kentucky on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	UGA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#89	#29
SuccessSuc	#89	#32
ExplosiveExp	#123	#64
PPAPPA	#118	#49
PowerPwr	#42	#17
SP+SP+	#80	#8
Pts POPPO	#104	#19
HavocHav	#121	#57

Kentucky Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	UGA Def
Run GameRun	#90	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	#31	#34
Run ExplRExp	#133	#53
PPAExp	#107	#59
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#39
Stuff RateStuff	#78	#59
TackleTak	-	#5

Kentucky Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	UGA Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#43
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#37
Pass ExplPExl	#10	#59
PPAExp	#117	#37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#54	#126
F7 HavocF7	#120	#21
DB HavocDB	#103	#110

Georgia on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	UGA Off	UK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#23	#42
SuccessSuc	#25	#111
ExplosiveExp	#97	#9
PPAPPA	#37	#62
PowerPwr	#3	#42
SP+SP+	#14	#48
Pts POPPO	#12	#31
HavocHav	#60	#56

Georgia Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	UGA Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#35	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#122
Run ExplRExp	#109	#24
PPAExp	#76	#75
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#104	#48
TackleTak	-	#27

Georgia Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	UGA Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#111	#27
PPAExp	#31	#46
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#5	#24
F7 HavocF7	#47	#32
DB HavocDB	#95	#95

Program Comparison
UGA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sanford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Georgia -19.5 (48.5)
Georgia won vs Kentucky this year (35-14)

Previous Matchups
Georgia beat Kentucky last year (35-14)
Georgia beat Kentucky in 2024 (13-12)
Georgia beat Kentucky in 2023 (51-13)

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cutter Boley	198	301	66%	2160	15	12	7.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)	28	58	48%	238	0	2	4.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)	165	725	12	4.4	20
Dante Dowdell (Tr)	112	560	3	5.0	79
Jason Patterson	57	225	1	3.9	29
Cutter Boley	66	85	2	1.3	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)	53	540	3	10.2	71
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)	28	313	1	11.2	45
Willie Rodriguez	23	310	1	13.5	53
Josh Kattus	17	195	2	11.5	34

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Bryant	76	2	0	0	1
Daveren Rayner	69	7	2	2	4
Alex Afari Jr.	61	7	3	6	1
J.Q. Hardaway	58	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Steven Soles Jr.	11	5	4	3	2
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)	31	7	4	6	2
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)	13	5	3	0	0
Tavion Gadson	28	4	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.Q. Hardaway	58	2	1	0	5
Daveren Rayner	69	7	2	2	4
Terhyon Nichols	18	1	0	2	4

UGA's OC Mike Bobo (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gunner Stockton	269	386	70%	2894	24	5	7.5
Ryan Puglisi	16	27	59%	161	1	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Frazier	173	947	6	5.5	59
Chauncey Bowens	103	526	6	5.1	43
Gunner Stockton	129	462	10	3.6	22
Dwight Phillips Jr.	35	210	1	6.0	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zachariah Branch (Tr)	81	811	6	10.0	47
Colbie Young	26	358	1	13.8	45
London Humphreys	18	276	3	15.3	36
Dillon Bell	27	268	2	9.9	36

View Georgia's Full Roster

UGA's DC Glenn Schumann (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Allen	88	8	4	2	4
KJ Bolden	77	3	0	0	5
Raylen Wilson	74	7	2	3	1
Chris Cole	61	7	5	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Cole	61	7	5	0	2
C.J. Allen	88	8	4	2	4
Quintavius Johnson	34	6	2	3	5
Zayden Walker	6	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daylen Everette	48	0	0	1	8
Ellis Robinson IV	20	1	0	0	7
Quintavius Johnson	34	6	2	3	5