Kentucky at Georgia - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs(#12)Georgia logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Georgia -19.5 (48.5) (-1450)  Open: -20.5
Georgia 35 - Kentucky: 14  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
UK 2nd straight Road Game
UGA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Georgia -25  (SP+ UGA -22)

Projected Score: UK: 12 - UGA: 37 (48)
UGA Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
UK Travel: 288 miles
Bulldogs (12 - 2) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kirby Smart (105 - 18)
Avg Score : 32 - 18 (35 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Georgia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia vs Marshall-39.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Georgia vs Austin Peay-47.055.5W 28 - 6UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia at Tennessee-3.550.5W 44 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Georgia vs Alabama-2.553.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/4 Georgia vs Kentucky-19.548.5W 35 - 14OY
Sat 10/11 Georgia at Auburn-4.545.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 Georgia vs Ole Miss-7.556.5W 43 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Georgia vs Florida-7.050.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/8 Georgia at Mississippi State-9.556.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 11/15 Georgia vs Texas-3.550.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Georgia vs Charlotte-42.553.5W 35 - 3UN
Fri 11/28 Georgia vs Georgia Tech-15.559.5W 16 - 9UN
Sat 12/6 Georgia vs Alabama-2.547.5W 28 - 7UY
Thu 1/1 Georgia vs Ole Miss-6.053.5L 34 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#116 (.08)42% (79)2345% (53)3.05 (50)13940% (96)2023.84 (57)#84 (.18)44% (96)26.444% (83)45% (110)3.98 (99)411.81.2
UGA#24 (.27)49% (13)32.148% (21)3.11 (38)17449% (15)2054.81 (6)#28 (.08)37% (22)17.635% (9)40% (52)3.66 (68)40.80.90.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
UGA#37 (.24)47% (25)46% (46)2.91 (91)12147% (16)2644.68 (12)#49 (.14)39% (32)39% (34)38% (37)3.22 (19)51.11.31.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense122310.841.6%3.841.8203411392023.951%47%45%40%18%.08
UGA Defense1417.614.137.4%3.660.9 - - - - - 45%54%35%40%15%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1226.431.843.7%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%46%44%45%15%.18
UGA Offense1432.134.648.6%4.810.9233781742054.556%43%48%49%13%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1230:3819.740%52%4.9411.81.25.82.1029.6
Georgia1431:2122.645%76%4.340.80.90.93.91.4029.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1251% (52)45% (53)35.9139.33.919 (70).06 (98)3.05 (50)70% (85)11% (112)0.82 (123)
UGA Defense1445% (14)35% (9) - - - - -.02 (10)2.47 (10)71% (66)8% (108)0.77 (4)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1252% (97)44% (83) - - - - .09 (63)2.89 (71)68% (45)10% (57)0.9 (41)
UGA Offense1456% (27)48% (21)38.5173.54.529 (16).18 (40)3.11 (38)74% (56)8% (34)0.93 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1247% (85)40% (96)19.130.6201.96.610.615 (128)14 (60).19 (101)1.6 (59)31% (63)26% (111).02 (134)7% (94)1.7 (131)
UGA Defense1454% (123)40% (52) - - - - - - 9 (75).21 (55)1.4 (10)31% (78)24% (11).18 (27)7% (34)2 (65)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1246% (36)45% (110) - - - - - - 12 (38).31 (99)1.5 (65)30% (91)31% (83).31 (76)5% (110)2 (55)
UGA Offense1443% (108)49% (15)19.127.4204.67.510.724 (61)7 (20).36 (35)1.3 (132)28% (20)32% (45).34 (56)5% (22)1.8 (122)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 4.04  #56
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 9.52  #65
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 5.48  #49
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25%  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #63
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0  #78
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 4.04   Georgia: 28.075

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 1.8   Georgia: 23.4




Georgia's Power Ratings
Georgia's Power Rating: 28.075  #6
Georgia's Offense Rating: 28.47  #4
Georgia's Defense Rating: -5.30  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1140.00  #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 74  #1
Georgia's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Georgia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.4  #6
Georgia's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2  #15
Georgia's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6  #8

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia 37
Kentucky 12


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia 29
Kentucky 21

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Georgia 31
Kentucky 16

Total Points: 47
Georgia Scoring
Offense: 32.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.6
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.1

Georgia's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Georgia35Kentucky14Georgia -19.5Georgia48.5Over
202409/14Kentucky12Georgia13Georgia -24Kentucky45.0Under
202310/07Georgia51Kentucky13Georgia -14.5Georgia47.0Over
202211/19Kentucky6Georgia16Georgia -22.5Kentucky47.5Under
202110/16Georgia30Kentucky13Georgia -21.5Kentucky44.5Under
202010/31Kentucky3Georgia14Georgia -17Kentucky42.0Under
201910/19Georgia21Kentucky0Georgia -23.5Kentucky45.5Under
201811/03Kentucky17Georgia34Georgia -9.5Georgia47.5Over
201711/18Georgia42Kentucky13Georgia -23.5Georgia51.0Over
201611/05Kentucky24Georgia27Georgia -2.5Georgia52.0Under
201511/07Georgia27Kentucky3Georgia -17Georgia58.0Under
201411/08Kentucky31Georgia63Georgia -13Georgia0
201311/23Georgia59Kentucky17Georgia -26Georgia0
201210/20Kentucky24Georgia29
201111/19Georgia19Kentucky10
201010/23Kentucky31Georgia44
200911/21Georgia27Kentucky34
200811/08Kentucky38Georgia42
200711/17Georgia24Kentucky13
200611/04Kentucky24Georgia20
200511/19Georgia45Kentucky13
200411/06Kentucky17Georgia62
200311/22Georgia30Kentucky10
200210/26Kentucky24Georgia52
200110/20Georgia43Kentucky29
200010/20Kentucky30Georgia34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia2484 Overs
Kentucky257 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 138 - 55 - 23 - 3
Road Teams13 - 135 - 83 - 32 - 5

(#56) UK at (#6) UGA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKUGA
Power RatePwr #56 #6
SP+SP+ #63 #6
Perf GradeGrade #70 #12
OffenseOff #91 #21
DefenseDef #38 #30
Spec TeamsST #87 #38
TalentTal #26 #2
Blue ChipsBC% #23 #1
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
Georgia Notes
(11/16) Killed Texas, Dawgs peaking. Def inj a concern
(10/20) Top WR Colbie Young out for season (fractured leg)
(10/19) Off torched Ole Miss, 500 yds, Rush Off improved
(10/18) At times playing 2 true Fr at OG vs Ole Miss
(9/30) DL cannot get pressure w/o LBs, have zero sacks
(9/15) Stockton, Off took huge leap in Tenn W.
(9/13) Pass Def torched by Tennessee, DB's beat 1-1
(9/8) Young talent on Def loaded w/ future NFL'ers
(8/16) CAMP: Skill players are massive upgrade TY
(8/13) 7 home games, only 3 on road (2 neutral)
(8/12) WR - upgrade w/ Branch/Thomas, top 10 PFF
(7/19) QB Stockton CFP starter, but watch So. Puglisi
Georgia Injury Report
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffUGA Def
Perf GradePerf #91 #30
SuccessSuc #79 #22
ExplosiveExp #126 #10
PPAPPA #116 #28
PowerPwr #65 #13
SP+SP+ #78 #8
Pts POPPO #57 #68
HavocHav #110 #77
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffUGA Def
Run GameRun #88 #6
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #9
Run ExplRExp #123 #4
PPAExp #98 #10
Run BlockR Blk #50 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #10
Stuff RateStuff #52 #45
TackleTak -  #1
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffUGA Def
Pass GamePass #120 #53
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #52
Pass ExplPExl #59 #10
PPAExp #101 #55
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #48 #123
F7 HavocF7 #112 #108
DB HavocDB #94 #34
Georgia on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatUGA OffUK Def
Perf GradePerf #21 #38
SuccessSuc #13 #96
ExplosiveExp #131 #57
PPAPPA #24 #84
PowerPwr #4 #49
SP+SP+ #15 #48
Pts POPPO #6 #99
HavocHav #23 #91
Georgia Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
UGA OffUK Def
Run GameRun #26 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #21 #83
Run ExplRExp #81 #41
PPAExp #40 #63
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #38 #71
Stuff RateStuff #86 #53
TackleTak -  #38
Georgia Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatUGA OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #22 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #15 #110
Pass ExplPExl #132 #65
PPAExp #35 #99
Pass Block/RushP Blk #8 #10
F7 HavocF7 #34 #57
DB HavocDB #22 #110
Program Comparison
UGA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sanford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Georgia -19.5 (48.5)
Georgia won vs Kentucky this year (35-14)

Previous Matchups
Georgia beat Kentucky last year (13-12)
Georgia beat Kentucky in 2023 (51-13)
Georgia beat Kentucky in 2022 (16-6)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024

UGA's OC Mike Bobo (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunner Stockton25135571%26912357.6
Ryan Puglisi162759%161126.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Frazier15886165.459
Chauncey Bowens9851665.343
Gunner Stockton11644283.822
Dwight Phillips Jr.3521016.023
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Zachariah Branch (Tr)73744510.247
Colbie Young23336114.645
Dillon Bell27279210.336
London Humphreys18276315.336

View Georgia's Full Roster

UGA's DC Glenn Schumann (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Allen858424
Raylen Wilson706231
KJ Bolden673004
Chris Cole547502
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Cole547502
C.J. Allen858424
Quintavius Johnson336233
Zayden Walker62200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ellis Robinson IV171007
Daylen Everette390016
Demello Jones231005