Sacramento State at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview
Sacramento State logo Sacramento State Hornets at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (5:00 PM EDT)
Nevada -8.0 (56.0) (-285)  Open: -7.5 | 54.5
Nevada 20 - Sacramento State: 17

 
Hornets (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -13.5  (SP+ NEV -14)
NEV Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Sacramento State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/6 Sacramento State at Nevada+8.056.0L 17 - 20UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+10.052.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10.049.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.039.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+7.553.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SAC0%170%000%000%200%0%0000
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (88)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#93 (.19)44% (92)27.544% (84)43% (93)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SAC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SAC Offense117170%00000000%0%0%0%0%
NEV Defense1227.525.243.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SAC Defense120200%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
NEV Offense1217.619.736.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sacramento State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SAC Offense10%0%000000%0%0
NEV Defense1250% (68)44% (84) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (94)1.05 (111)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SAC Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (89)2.83 (88)72% (68)11% (115)1.04 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SAC Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
NEV Defense1248% (70)43% (93) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (40)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (41).26 (57)6% (87)1.8 (17)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SAC Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (123)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (84)1.6 (136)

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Sacramento State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Sacramento State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State:    Nevada: -13.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State:    Nevada: -14.1




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.53  #132
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #131
Nevada's Defense Rating: 17.76  #124
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.1  #118
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #78

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Sacramento State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Sacramento State 26
Nevada 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Sacramento State 30
Nevada 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Sacramento State 22
Nevada 19

Total Points: 41
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Nevada20Sacramento State17Nevada -8.0Sacramento State56.0Under
200409/11Nevada59Sacramento State7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada200 Overs
Sacramento State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#NR) SAC at (#132) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSACNEV
Power RatePwrNR #132
SP+SP+NR #118
Perf GradeGradeNR #97
OffenseOffNR #112
DefenseDefNR #45
Spec TeamsSTNR #119
TalentTalNR #119
Blue ChipsBC%NR #101
Nevada Notes
(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report
Sacramento State on Offense
CategoryCat
SAC OffNEV Def
Perf GradePerfNR #45
SuccessSucNR #92
ExplosiveExpNR #38
PPAPPANR #93
PowerPwrNR #124
SP+SP+NR #78
Pts POPPONR #112
HavocHavNR #100
Sacramento State Run Game
CategoryCat
SAC OffNEV Def
Run GameRunNR #54
Run SuccessRSucNR #84
Run ExplRExpNR #111
PPAExpNR #126
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #104
Stuff RateStuffNR #111
TackleTak -  #68
Sacramento State Pass Game
CategoryCat
SAC OffNEV Def
Pass GamePassNR #73
Pass SuccessPSucNR #93
Pass ExplPExlNR #2
PPAExpNR #40
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #14
F7 HavocF7NR #94
DB HavocDBNR #87
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffSAC Def
Perf GradePerf #112NR
SuccessSuc #124NR
ExplosiveExp #102NR
PPAPPA #129NR
PowerPwr #131NR
SP+SP+ #133NR
Pts POPPO #133NR
HavocHav #107NR
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffSAC Def
Run GameRun #126NR
Run SuccessRSuc #123NR
Run ExplRExp #38NR
PPAExp #89NR
Run BlockR Blk #24 -
OL YdsOLY #88NR
Stuff RateStuff #80NR
TackleTak - NR
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffSAC Def
Pass GamePass #131NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #118NR
Pass ExplPExl #123NR
PPAExp #135NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #77NR
F7 HavocF7 #115NR
DB HavocDB #84NR
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SAC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79° - Wind: 10 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Nevada -8.0 (56.0)
Nevada won vs Sacramento State this year (20-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SAC's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cardell Williams (Tr)11017563%16211079.3
Jaden Rashada (Tr)174241%264116.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Hammond Jr. (Tr)1881214136.587
Damian Henderson II (Tr)9156556.285
Jaquail Smith7651156.745
Cardell Williams (Tr)99382123.951
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ernest Campbell (Tr)37755820.475
Jordan Anderson (Tr)24361015.052
Jordan Williams (Tr)11170115.526
Rodney Hammond Jr. (Tr)1514709.829

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derek Houston91000
Anta'Veon McKenzie70000
DeSean Watts71000
Diego Davis60000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derek Houston91000
Koa Akui20000
Dejuan Butler10000
Fata Puloka11000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derek Houston91000
Koa Akui20000
Dejuan Butler10000

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
Chubba Purdy448651%577386.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur13968354.932
Chubba Purdy10053035.358
Herschel Turner (Tr)6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter35374210.744
Dakota Thomas (Tr)26268110.325
Marcus Bellon2524219.743
Caleb Ramseur18191310.641

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Stone Combs725111
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)595102
Nakian Jackson (Tr)510000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jonathan Maldonado389514
Nelson Ropati224200
Myles Williams (Tr)31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Odums491007
Edward Rhambo (Tr)341006
Bryson Snelling140004