Nevada at Penn State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at Penn State Nittany Lions(#2)Penn State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -45.5 (58.5) (0)  Open: -45.5 | 58.5
Penn State 46 - Nevada: 11

 
Wolf Pack (1 - 7) (3 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 14 - 28 (17 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.1 - 9.9 (#129)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: Penn State -33.5  (SP+ PSU -31)
Projected Score: NEV: 10 - PSU: 44 (54)
PSU Win prob: 100% | Cover: 31%
NEV Travel: 2196 miles, 3 hrs behind
Nittany Lions (3 - 6) (2 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (34 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#91)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+8.552.5
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+6
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+14
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+9

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+14.549.5
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-9
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-11

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#134 (-.01)35% (130)1435% (129)2.63 (99)14036% (124)1552.28 (135)#84 (.17)44% (102)27.545% (101)43% (92)4.11 (101)432.61
PSU#52 (.2)46% (32)30.748% (25)3.12 (34)13844% (56)1604.4 (33)#67 (.14)42% (78)22.344% (85)41% (65)3.74 (73)27.70.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense81416.535.4%2.282.6172951401554.255%44%35%36%18%-.01
PSU Defense922.31642%3.741.1 - - - - - 56%43%44%41%15%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense827.530.344.3%4.111 - - - - - 53%47%45%43%14%.17
PSU Offense930.733.545.9%4.40.9172981381604.554%46%48%44%13%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada828:5416.634%56%5432.615.62.3130.7
Penn State925:0517.343%57%3.227.70.91.15.21.4233.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense855% (30)35% (129)33.4139.94.24 (132).06 (95)2.63 (99)72% (70)11% (106)1.09 (21)
PSU Defense956% (124)44% (85) - - - - .15 (107)2.84 (84)76% (105)10% (57)0.93 (55)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense853% (101)45% (101) - - - - .16 (110)1.75 (3)70% (54)10% (74)0.99 (83)
PSU Offense954% (43)48% (25)311384.519 (26).21 (23)3.12 (34)78% (31)8% (32)0.99 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense844% (107)36% (124)15.326.6155.45.810.25 (121)15 (134)-.08 (136)1.4 (100)36% (129)25% (121)-.09 (136)7% (101)1.6 (135)
PSU Defense943% (12)41% (65) - - - - - - 5 (55).23 (68)1.4 (15)30% (100)26% (28).17 (27)4% (121)1.6 (4)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense847% (42)43% (92) - - - - - - 5 (75).18 (47)1.3 (3)30% (90)25% (22).21 (38)5% (116)1.8 (25)
PSU Offense946% (93)44% (56)16.125.2160.36.4109 (86)6 (60).2 (89)1.3 (130)28% (20)32% (54).33 (67)5% (45)1.9 (103)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -16.80  #132
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #131
Nevada's Defense Rating: 16.60  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 2.1 - 9.9
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.7  #123
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.6  #134
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -16.80   Penn State: 17.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.7   Penn State: 15.0




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 17.32  #34
Penn State's Offense Rating: 16.50  #33
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.86  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.0  #22
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #29
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 44
Nevada 10


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 37
Nevada 16

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 30
Nevada 17

Total Points: 47
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 16

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 6
Record vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Penn State46Nevada11Penn State -45.5Nevada58.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State100 Overs
Nevada011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#132) NEV at (#34) PSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNEVPSU
Power RatePwr #132 #34
SP+SP+ #123 #22
Perf GradeGrade #110 #34
OffenseOff #123 #60
DefenseDef #72 #30
Spec TeamsST #112 #3
TalentTal #119 #4
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #10
Nevada Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
Nevada Injury Report
Penn State Notes
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
(9/30) OL push is an issue, Allar/WR did little vs Ducks. Yikes
(9/15) Off #'s good but cupcakes so far, Pass Off expl?
(8/30) 3.8 ypc vs Nevada? Allar big w/ Hudson/Pena
(6/6) Def still solid, DL a top 10 unit via PFF
Penn State Injury Report
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
NEV OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #123 #30
SuccessSuc #130 #78
ExplosiveExp #59 #10
PPAPPA #134 #67
PowerPwr #131 #36
SP+SP+ #134 #25
Pts POPPO #135 #73
HavocHav #102 #96
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
NEV OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #130 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #85
Run ExplRExp #21 #55
PPAExp #95 #107
Run BlockR Blk #42 -
OL YdsOLY #99 #84
Stuff RateStuff #120 #67
TackleTak -  #19
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
NEV OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #131 #33
Pass SuccessPSuc #124 #65
Pass ExplPExl #100 #15
PPAExp #136 #68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #75 #33
F7 HavocF7 #106 #57
DB HavocDB #101 #121
Penn State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatPSU OffNEV Def
Perf GradePerf #60 #72
SuccessSuc #32 #102
ExplosiveExp #124 #11
PPAPPA #52 #84
PowerPwr #33 #118
SP+SP+ #29 #91
Pts POPPO #33 #101
HavocHav #33 #103
Penn State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #48 #71
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #101
Run ExplRExp #56 #83
PPAExp #23 #110
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #3
Stuff RateStuff #9 #116
TackleTak -  #80
Penn State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatPSU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #105 #93
Pass SuccessPSuc #56 #92
Pass ExplPExl #130 #3
PPAExp #89 #47
Pass Block/RushP Blk #12 #6
F7 HavocF7 #32 #74
DB HavocDB #45 #116
Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 74° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Penn State -45.5 (58.5)
Penn State won vs Nevada this year (46-11)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones6610662%644366.1
Chubba Purdy417853%497186.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur7732924.327
Herschel Turner (Tr)6129704.964
Chubba Purdy6429524.630
Ky Woods128807.328
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter22228010.444
Marcus Bellon18202111.243
Jordan Brown (Tr)14170012.128
Dakota Thomas (Tr)1514819.924

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera6915720
Stone Combs483100
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)423101
A.J. Odums320004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera6915720
Jonathan Maldonado279503
Nelson Ropati152200
Nahji Logan (Tr)81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)280005
A.J. Odums320004
Jonathan Maldonado279503

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Ethan Grunkemeyer426763%343135.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen119688105.867
Nicholas Singleton8229273.616
Drew Allar3617214.827
Trebor Pena (Tr)106706.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devonte Ross (Tr)23281312.267
Kyron Ware-Hudson20236211.831
Trebor Pena (Tr)2623218.930
Luke Reynolds21213010.122

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)596220
Zakee Wheatley561011
Dominic DeLuca403122
King Mack (Tr)310002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)596220
Tony Rojas255221
Zuriah Fisher112221
Zane Durant203201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II140002
Dominic DeLuca403122
King Mack (Tr)310002