Nevada at Penn State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at Penn State Nittany Lions(#2)Penn State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -45.5 (58.5) (0)  Open: -45.5 | 58.5
Penn State 46 - Nevada: 11

 
Wolf Pack (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 15 - 26 (11 - 46 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.2 - 8.8 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: Penn State -50   (SP+ PSU -43)
Projected Score: NEV: 2 - PSU: 52 (54)
PSU Win prob: 100% | Cover: 31%
NEV Travel: 2196 miles, 3 hrs behind
Nittany Lions (3 - 0) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (99 - 41)
Avg Score : 44 - 6 (44 - 6 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 1.5 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+10.554.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+13.5
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+9
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+4.5
Sat 10/25 Nevada vs Boise State+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+7
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+5.5
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+14
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-3
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-34.5
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-33
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa-14
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+2
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana-12
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-15
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-18

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#131 (-.01)42% (79)14.744% (75)2.41 (116)18440% (92)1452.3 (127)#116 (.26)49% (124)25.751% (123)47% (108)4.38 (101)43.72.30.7
PSU#49 (.27)52% (25)4455% (19)3.74 (13)19449% (38)2444.63 (42)#4 (-.13)29% (6)5.736% (42)20% (2)1.25 (5)26.70.32.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense314.71142.3%2.32.3173291841454.968%31%44%40%18%-.01
PSU Defense35.75.728.7%1.252.3 - - - - - 55%45%36%20%20%-.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense325.74649%4.380.7 - - - - - 56%44%51%47%13%.26
PSU Offense3444451.8%4.630.3244381942445.548%52%55%49%9%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada329:1817.331%57%4.743.72.30.76.32.7127.7
Penn State329:1924.339%63%3.726.70.32.372.7138.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense368% (6)44% (75)37.7183.74.91 (127).13 (72)2.41 (116)86% (22)13% (126)1.02 (53)
PSU Defense355% (103)36% (42) - - - - -.08 (29)2.03 (12)63% (43)14% (28)0.79 (33)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense356% (110)51% (123) - - - - .28 (124)3.27 (118)78% (100)11% (52)0.87 (54)
PSU Offense348% (83)55% (19)351945.59 (17).36 (20)3.74 (13)86% (22)4% (6)1.02 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense331% (131)40% (92)12.322.31456.511.82 (102)5 (129)-.21 (135)1 (134)32% (86)29% (89)-.19 (136)4% (45)1.4 (127)
PSU Defense345% (36)20% (2) - - - - - - 4 (12)-.2 (7)1.4 (41)39% (15)13% (7)-.05 (14)7% (55)1.4 (13)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense344% (30)47% (108) - - - - - - 2 (56).24 (77)1.4 (43)30% (93)26% (44).32 (84)2% (134)1.8 (49)
PSU Offense352% (52)49% (38)21.733243.77.411.35 (54)1 (23).19 (95)1.1 (130)23% (14)32% (68).28 (84)4% (53)1.8 (101)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -19.51 #128
Nevada's Offense Rating: 2.19 #120
Nevada's Defense Rating: 21.69 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.2 - 8.8
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #120
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #116
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -19.51   Penn State: 32.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -14.3   Penn State: 28.3




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 32.895 #3
Penn State's Offense Rating: 27.17 #11
Penn State's Defense Rating: -9.44 #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53 #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 1.5
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 28.3 #1
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #5
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 11
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 46

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 52
Nevada 2


Total Points: 54

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 44 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 5.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 5.7

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Penn State46Nevada11Penn StatePenn State -45.5Nevada58.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State100 Overs
Nevada011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#128) Nevada Info
Power Rating: -19.51 #128
Offense Rating: 2.19 #120
Defense Rating: 21.69 #126
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #120
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108
Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 3.2 - 8.8

Team Profile
Option Offense 68%, Pass: 31%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Nevada Notes
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
(4/9) Choate got year 0. New OC, pass game better TY
(3/29) QB Purdy vs Blanco, not much playing exp

Nevada Highlights

Nevada Deficiencies
Nevada has a really bad Offense
Nevada has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Nevada throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Nevada offense is not Explosive (#126)
Nevada Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#121)
Nevada offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#127)
Nevada offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Nevada has a bad defense (#124)
Nevada Does Not Stuff Runs (#128)
Nevada has a bad defensive line (#118)
Nevada has a bad red zone defense (#101)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatPSUNEV
OverallOver#5#69
OffenseOff#31#87
DefenseDef#2#51
Special TeamsST#8#99
PassingPass#59#97
RushingRush#57#79
Run BlockRBLK#5#34
Pass BlockPBLK#16#85
Route RunningWR Rt#57#99
TacklingTkl#12#75
Run DefenseR Def#7#64
Pass Rush DefPRush#8#12
Coverage DefCov#8#73

Rematch from Week 1
Penn State -45.5 (58.5)
Penn State won vs Nevada this year (46-11)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NEV | PSU
Depth Chart: NEV | PSU
Rosters: NEV | PSU
(#3) Penn State Info
Power Rating: 32.895 #3
Offense Rating: 27.17 #11
Defense Rating: -9.44 #4
Overall SP+ Rating: 28.3 #1
Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #5
Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3
Talent Rating: 1078.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53 #10
Expected Record: 10.5 - 1.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 52%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.63 PPO
Great Run Success 55%
Good Pass Success 49%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Great in Scoring Position 1.25 PPO
Good Run Def Success 36%
Great Pass Def Success 20%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record at home: 3 - 0 (0 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Penn State Notes
(8/30) 3.8 ypc vs Nevada? Allar big w/ Hudson/Pena
(6/6) Def still solid, DL a top 10 unit via PFF
(5/23) CBs Harris & Washington a top duo in CFB
(5/11) OL one of CFB's most exp'd, top of contenders
(4/4) CB AJ Harris a top 10 CB via PFF
(4/4) DE Dennis-Sutton/DT Durant top 10 via PFF
(3/18) QB Allar primed for breakout season.
(3/18) WR, are portals Ross/Hudson weapons?
(3/18) RB Allen/Singleton best duo in CFB?
(3/18) OL returns 4/5 starters, a top CFB unit.

Penn State Highlights
Penn State in Undefeated
Penn State is Undefeated at Home

Penn State offense is efficent (#25)
Penn State has a top Offensive Line (#13)
Penn State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#3)

Penn State has a really good defense (#6)
Penn State defense does not give up big plays (#8)
Penn State defense is really good in red zone (#5)
Penn State has a good pass defense (#2)
Penn State Defensive Line is very good (#12)
Penn State Front 7 is disruptive (#28)
Penn State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Penn State commits very few Penalties (#16)
Penn State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Penn State Deficiencies
Penn State offense is not Explosive (#114)


  
Nevada's OC David Gilbertson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy244356%329147.7
AJ Bianco132357%106114.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chubba Purdy4421614.930
Herschel Turner (Tr)3115304.964
Caleb Ramseur239304.026
Ky Woods450012.528
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcus Bellon11153113.943
Jordan Brown (Tr)11145013.228
Ky Woods147147.047
Jett Carpenter64106.812

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stone Combs213100
Dylan Labarbera216200
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)160000
Austin Harnetiaux140001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera216200
Jonathan Maldonado123200
Sam Cook (Tr)74100
Nelson Ropati51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)90003
Bishop Turner30001
Austin Harnetiaux140001

Penn State's OC Andy Kotelnicki
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar578865%626417.1
Ethan Grunkemeyer81173%105109.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen3427338.067
Nicholas Singleton4117954.416
Trebor Pena (Tr)54609.213
Drew Allar102702.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)13166112.830
Kyron Ware-Hudson14156111.131
Luke Reynolds13142010.922
Devonte Ross (Tr)577115.442

View Penn State's Full Roster
Penn State's DC Jim Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)223110
Tony Rojas185220
King Mack (Tr)130001
Dominic DeLuca92110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Rojas185220
Amare Campbell (Tr)223110
Dejuan Lane92100
Chaz Coleman53131
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton95142
Chaz Coleman53131
King Mack (Tr)130001