Nevada at Penn State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo   Nevada Wolf Pack at Penn State Nittany Lions  Penn State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -45.5 (58.5) (0)  Open: -45.5 | 58.5
Penn State 46 - Nevada: 11

 
Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: Penn State -39.5  (SP+ PSU -32)
Projected Score: NEV: 7 - PSU: 46 (53)
PSU Win prob: 100% | Cover: 31%
NEV Travel: 2196 miles, 3 hrs behind
Nittany Lions (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (99 - 41)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#74)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+10.052.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10.049.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.039.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+7.553.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-7.048.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7.545.5W 37 - 10OY
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-14.555.5W 40 - 36ON
Sat 12/27 Penn State vs Clemson+2.547.5W 22 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)17.647% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)27.549% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)3152% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)20.539% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1317.615.544.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21
PSU Defense1620.515.137.9%3.221.3 - - - - - 48%52%39%37%18%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1327.529.846.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
PSU Offense16313451.3%4.690.8203851762095.354%46%52%51%10%.32

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
Penn State1626:5120.448%70%4.441.40.81.35.52.3428.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)
PSU Defense1648% (43)39% (27) - - - - -.01 (12)2.37 (3)75% (75)12% (26)0.92 (42)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
PSU Offense1654% (38)52% (9)33.2176.25.331 (17).24 (20)3.42 (10)76% (51)7% (8)0.92 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)
PSU Defense1652% (96)37% (25) - - - - - - 15 (18).1 (16)1.7 (91)36% (14)27% (25).2 (29)6% (57)2.1 (95)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
PSU Offense1646% (95)51% (4)16.724.3208.88.612.527 (20)9 (48).41 (11)1.5 (107)26% (3)35% (31).46 (20)3% (5)2 (85)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -24.57  #134
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #135
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.37  #131
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -24.57   Penn State: 20.735

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.4   Penn State: 18.1




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.735  #13
Penn State's Offense Rating: 23.64  #17
Penn State's Defense Rating: 5.27  #24
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 6.4
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.1  #15
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1  #17
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 46
Nevada 7


Projected Total Points: 53
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Penn State46Nevada11Penn State -45.5Nevada58.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State100 Overs
Nevada011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#134) NEV at (#13) PSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNEVPSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #134 #13
SP+SP+ #116 #15
Perf GradeGrade #90 #23
OffenseOff #111 #29
DefenseDef #34 #38
Spec TeamsST #118 #13
TalentTal #119 #4
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #10
Nevada Notes
(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report
Penn State Notes
(12/5) Hired ISU HC Matt Campbell, bailed out PSU & AD
(12/4) Still no coach, crootin a disaster. Program a mess.
(11/22) Still fighting, killed Nebraska. 5-6, could bowl
(11/9) Credit due, even with IU. Still fighting
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
Penn State Injury Report
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffPSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #111 #38
SuccessSuc #46 #21
ExplosiveExp #94 #81
PPAPPA #55 #9
PowerPwr #135 #24
SP+SP+ #133 #22
Pts POPPO #73 #18
HavocHav #78 #38
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #118 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #27
Run ExplRExp #64 #42
PPAExp #51 #12
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #59 #3
Stuff RateStuff #47 #1
TackleTak -  #36
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #134 #37
Pass SuccessPSuc #65 #25
Pass ExplPExl #71 #91
PPAExp #57 #16
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #86 #31
F7 HavocF7 #81 #26
DB HavocDB #74 #57
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffNEV Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #29 #34
SuccessSuc #4 #117
ExplosiveExp #116 #59
PPAPPA #11 #110
PowerPwr #17 #131
SP+SP+ #17 #81
Pts POPPO #9 #114
HavocHav #3 #95
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #20 #44
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #121
Run ExplRExp #90 #107
PPAExp #20 #130
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #10 #91
Stuff RateStuff #24 #69
TackleTak -  #66
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #70 #49
Pass SuccessPSuc #4 #92
Pass ExplPExl #107 #49
PPAExp #11 #50
Pass Block/RushP Blk #15 #22
F7 HavocF7 #8 #119
DB HavocDB #5 #47
Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Penn State -45.5 (58.5)
Penn State won vs Nevada this year (46-11)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Nevada last year (46-11)

  
NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
Chubba Purdy448651%577386.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur13968354.932
Chubba Purdy10053035.358
Herschel Turner (Tr)6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter35374210.744
Dakota Thomas (Tr)26268110.325
Marcus Bellon2524219.743
Caleb Ramseur18191310.641

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Stone Combs725111
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)595102
Nakian Jackson (Tr)510000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jonathan Maldonado389514
Nelson Ropati224200
Thomas Witte253111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Odums491007
Edward Rhambo (Tr)341006
Bryson Snelling140004

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Grunkemeyer12317869%1339847.5
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen2101303156.267
Nicholas Singleton123549134.559
Drew Allar3617214.827
Quinton Martin Jr.2010305.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)49552211.373
Devonte Ross (Tr)36501513.975
Kyron Ware-Hudson23288212.531
Luke Reynolds2625709.922

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Zakee Wheatley742031
Dominic DeLuca667243
King Mack (Tr)581113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton4212883
Zane Durant255412
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Dominic DeLuca667243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryus Dixson242106
Elliot Washington II180003
Dominic DeLuca667243