Boise State at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Mackay Stadium - Reno, NV  (Mountain West)

 
Broncos (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (7 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
BSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -19   (SP+ BSU -18)

Projected Score: BSU: 30 - NEV: 11 (41)
BSU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
BSU Travel: 337 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 15 - 26 (17 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.2 - 8.8 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-17
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+16.5
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-22
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-8.5
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-19
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-14.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+10.554.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+13.5
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+9
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+4.5
Sat 10/25 Nevada vs Boise State+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+7
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+5.5
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+14
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#75 (.19)47% (42)2954% (25)2.97 (71)22541% (89)2832.81 (120)#65 (.12)29% (9)2431% (16)27% (12)4.56 (107)561.51
NEV#131 (-.01)42% (79)14.744% (75)2.41 (116)18440% (92)1452.3 (127)#116 (.26)49% (124)25.751% (123)47% (108)4.38 (101)43.72.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense229747.1%2.811.5245082252835.848%52%54%41%16%.19
NEV Defense325.715.549%4.380.7 - - - - - 56%44%51%47%13%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense2243429.2%4.561 - - - - - 47%53%31%27%17%.12
NEV Offense314.716.542.3%2.32.3173291841454.968%31%44%40%18%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State232:2223.543%29%7561.5172.5033
Nevada329:1817.331%57%4.743.72.30.76.32.7127.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense248% (84)54% (25)38.52255.85 (62).16 (60)2.97 (71)80% (36)10% (86)0.84 (98)
NEV Defense356% (110)51% (123) - - - - .28 (124)3.27 (118)78% (100)11% (52)0.87 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense247% (47)31% (16) - - - - .15 (102)2.85 (77)57% (28)13% (33)1.65 (135)
NEV Offense368% (6)44% (75)37.7183.74.91 (127).13 (72)2.41 (116)86% (22)13% (126)1.02 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense252% (51)41% (89)2238.5282.57.312.83 (90)0 (1).22 (81)1.4 (98)36% (115)35% (45).04 (120)6% (86)1 (136)
NEV Defense344% (30)47% (108) - - - - - - 2 (56).24 (77)1.4 (43)30% (93)26% (44).32 (84)2% (134)1.8 (49)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense253% (92)27% (12) - - - - - - 1 (87).1 (37)2 (129)50% (2)21% (30).2 (56)4% (104)2.8 (131)
NEV Offense331% (131)40% (92)12.322.31456.511.82 (102)5 (129)-.21 (135)1 (134)32% (86)29% (89)-.19 (136)4% (45)1.4 (127)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.30 #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Boise State's Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 5.30   Nevada: -14.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.9   Nevada: -14.3




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -14.405 #128
Nevada's Offense Rating: 2.19 #120
Nevada's Defense Rating: 21.69 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.2 - 8.8
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #120
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #116
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 30
Nevada 11


Total Points: 41

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.5
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.5

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Boise State28Nevada21Boise StateBoise State -23.5Nevada60.5Under
202211/12Nevada3Boise State41Boise StateBoise State -21Boise State47.0Under
202110/02Boise State31Nevada41NevadaBoise State -3.5Nevada59.0Over
201810/13Nevada27Boise State31Boise StateBoise State -15Nevada59.5Under
201711/04Boise State41Nevada14Boise StateBoise State -20.5Boise State63.0Under
201410/04Nevada46Boise State51Boise StateBoise State -1.5Boise State0
201310/19Boise State34Nevada17Boise StateBoise State -21.5Nevada0
201212/01Nevada21Boise State27Boise State
201110/01Boise State30Nevada10Boise State
201011/26Nevada34Boise State31Nevada
200911/27Boise State44Nevada33Boise State
200811/22Nevada34Boise State41Boise State
200710/14Boise State69Nevada67Boise State
200611/25Nevada7Boise State38Boise State
200510/29Boise State49Nevada14Boise State
200411/27Nevada21Boise State58Boise State
200311/29Boise State56Nevada3Boise State
200110/27Boise State49Nevada7Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada241 Overs
Boise State1634 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 82 - 51 - 31 - 2
Road Teams8 - 105 - 22 - 13 - 1

(#67) Boise State Info
Power Rating: 5.30 #67
Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.81 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.56 PPO
Great Run Def Success 31%
Great Pass Def Success 27%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Boise State has lost 5 straight
Boise State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Boise State Notes
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
(6/8) RB Sherrod had 960 yds rush, 44/260 rec in '23
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs

Boise State Highlights
Boise State has a really good defense (#9)
Boise State has a good run defense (#16)
Boise State has a good pass defense (#12)

Boise State Deficiencies
Boise State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Boise State offense is not Explosive (#112)
Boise State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#126)
Boise State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#120)
Boise State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#136)
Boise State has a bad red zone defense (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNEVBSU
OverallOver#69#53
OffenseOff#87#40
DefenseDef#51#62
Special TeamsST#99#85
PassingPass#97#64
RushingRush#79#21
Run BlockRBLK#34#17
Pass BlockPBLK#85#72
Route RunningWR Rt#99#72
TacklingTkl#75#110
Run DefenseR Def#64#66
Pass Rush DefPRush#12#64
Coverage DefCov#73#51

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Nevada last year (28-21)
Boise State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BSU | NEV
Depth Chart: BSU | NEV
Rosters: BSU | NEV
(#128) Nevada Info
Power Rating: -14.405 #128
Offense Rating: 2.19 #120
Defense Rating: 21.69 #126
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #120
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108
Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 3.2 - 8.8

Team Profile
Option Offense 68%, Pass: 31%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Nevada has lost 5 straight
Nevada has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Nevada Notes
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
(4/9) Choate got year 0. New OC, pass game better TY
(3/29) QB Purdy vs Blanco, not much playing exp

Nevada Highlights

Nevada Deficiencies
Nevada has a really bad Offense
Nevada has a really bad Offense at Home
Nevada has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Nevada throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Nevada offense is not Explosive (#126)
Nevada Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#121)
Nevada offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#127)
Nevada offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Nevada has a bad defense (#124)
Nevada Does Not Stuff Runs (#128)
Nevada has a bad defensive line (#118)
Nevada has a bad red zone defense (#101)


  
Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen417257%532307.4
Max Cutforth3560%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley13143111.077
Sire Gaines2314216.246
Malik Sherrod (Tr)186913.820
Maddux Madsen156614.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Marshall6151125.246
Ben Ford7126218.060
Matt Lauter880010.020
Latrell Caples569013.816

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield153000
Marco Notarainni131040
Jeremiah Earby111100
Zion Washington110001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely82200
Lopez Sanusi21100
Dion Washington (Tr)31100
Max Stege31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy10002
Zion Washington110001
Travis Anderson10001

Nevada's OC David Gilbertson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy244356%329147.7
AJ Bianco132357%106114.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chubba Purdy4421614.930
Herschel Turner (Tr)3115304.964
Caleb Ramseur239304.026
Ky Woods450012.528
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcus Bellon11153113.943
Jordan Brown (Tr)11145013.228
Ky Woods147147.047
Jett Carpenter64106.812

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stone Combs213100
Dylan Labarbera216200
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)160000
Austin Harnetiaux140001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera216200
Jonathan Maldonado123200
Sam Cook (Tr)74100
Nelson Ropati51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)90003
Bishop Turner30001
Austin Harnetiaux140001