Boise State at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview

Friday, October 24th 2025 (10:00 PM EDT)
Boise State -20.5 (51.5) (-2000) Open: -21.5 | 52.5
Boise State 24 - Nevada: 3 (Mountain West)

Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

NEV is playing their 4th straight game
BSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -18.5 (SP+ BSU -16.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 34 - NEV: 16 (50)
BSU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
BSU Travel: 337 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Boise State at South Florida	-8.5	63.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Fri 9/5	Boise State vs Eastern Washington	-33.5	60.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Boise State at Air Force	-10.5	51.5	W 49 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Boise State vs App State	-16.5	59.5	W 47 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Boise State at Notre Dame	+21.5	63.5	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-14.5	58.5	W 41 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Boise State vs UNLV	-12.5	60.5	W 56 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/24	Boise State at Nevada	-20.5	51.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Boise State vs Fresno State	-17.5	47.5	L 7 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Boise State at San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/22	Boise State vs Colorado State	-17.5	46.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/28	Boise State at Utah State	-1.5	54.5	W 25 - 24	U	N
Fri 12/5	Boise State vs UNLV	-6.0	60.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 12/13	Boise State vs Washington	+9.5	55.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Nevada's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Nevada at Penn State	+45.5	58.5	L 11 - 46	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Nevada vs Sacramento State	-8.0	56.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Nevada vs Middle Tennessee	-9.0	50.0	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Nevada at Western Kentucky	+8.5	54.5	L 16 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Nevada at Fresno State	+12.5	45.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Nevada vs San Diego State	+6.5	42.5	L 10 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/18	Nevada at New Mexico	+14.0	49.5	L 22 - 24	U	Y
Fri 10/24	Nevada vs Boise State	+20.5	51.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Nevada at Utah State	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/15	Nevada vs San José State	+10.0	49.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Nevada at Wyoming	+6.0	39.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	53.0	L 17 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#44 (.2)	42% (77)	29.9	43% (80)	3.11 (39)	179	41% (83)	245	3.66 (73)	#53 (.12)	36% (14)	24.1	41% (50)	33% (6)	4.14 (111)	59.4	1.5	1.6
NEV	#129 (.02)	37% (124)	17.6	37% (123)	2.83 (86)	155	36% (118)	147	2.67 (133)	#94 (.19)	44% (93)	27.5	44% (85)	43% (96)	4.15 (112)	45.2	2.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	29.9	19.8	41.8%	3.66	1.5	22	424	179	245	4.6	51%	47%	43%	41%	14%	.2
NEV Defense	12	27.5	25.2	43.5%	4.15	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	44%	43%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	24.1	23.8	36.5%	4.14	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	41%	33%	17%	.12
NEV Offense	12	17.6	19.7	36.6%	2.67	2.3	17	302	155	147	4.5	56%	42%	37%	36%	17%	.02

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	32:50	22.1	46%	51%	6.9	59.4	1.5	1.6	6	2	3	30.6
Nevada	12	30:19	17.3	32%	54%	5.3	45.2	2.3	1.3	5.3	1.6	3	30.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	51% (51)	43% (80)	39.3	179.4	4.6	29 (30)	.16 (46)	3.11 (39)	79% (22)	8% (33)	1 (55)
NEV Defense	12	50% (66)	44% (85)	-	-	-	-	.22 (126)	3.08 (104)	72% (78)	9% (93)	1.05 (109)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	52% (93)	41% (50)	-	-	-	-	.2 (120)	2.98 (88)	67% (39)	11% (28)	1.22 (134)
NEV Offense	12	56% (23)	37% (123)	34.6	155.3	4.5	9 (132)	.07 (92)	2.83 (86)	72% (68)	11% (114)	1.04 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	47% (82)	41% (83)	19.6	33.7	244.9	7.3	12.5	23 (22)	14 (88)	.27 (62)	1.6 (43)	33% (91)	31% (58)	.28 (74)	6% (66)	1.8 (124)
NEV Defense	12	48% (71)	43% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (75)	.18 (38)	1.3 (2)	32% (65)	28% (38)	.26 (56)	6% (86)	1.8 (16)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	46% (45)	33% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (22)	.08 (7)	1.7 (116)	37% (4)	28% (49)	.22 (33)	6% (81)	2.1 (87)
NEV Offense	12	42% (114)	36% (118)	15.2	25.7	147.2	5.7	9.7	10 (121)	17 (134)	-.02 (135)	1.4 (124)	34% (109)	24% (130)	-.05 (136)	6% (86)	1.6 (136)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 0.57 #66
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.41 #68
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.84 #60
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1 #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #60

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 0.57 Nevada: -16.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.1 Nevada: -13.4

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -16.485 #133
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20 #134
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.37 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4 #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 34
Nevada 16

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 30
Nevada 20

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 26
Nevada 21

Total Points: 47

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/24	Nevada	3	Boise State	24	Boise State -20.5	Boise State	51.5	Under
2024	11/09	Boise State	28	Nevada	21	Boise State -23.5	Nevada	60.5	Under
2022	11/12	Nevada	3	Boise State	41	Boise State -21	Boise State	47.0	Under
2021	10/02	Boise State	31	Nevada	41	Boise State -3.5	Nevada	59.0	Over
2018	10/13	Nevada	27	Boise State	31	Boise State -15	Nevada	59.5	Under
2017	11/04	Boise State	41	Nevada	14	Boise State -20.5	Boise State	63.0	Under
2014	10/04	Nevada	46	Boise State	51	Boise State -1.5	Boise State	0
2013	10/19	Boise State	34	Nevada	17	Boise State -21.5	Nevada	0
2012	12/01	Nevada	21	Boise State	27
2011	10/01	Boise State	30	Nevada	10
2010	11/26	Nevada	34	Boise State	31
2009	11/27	Boise State	44	Nevada	33
2008	11/22	Nevada	34	Boise State	41
2007	10/14	Boise State	69	Nevada	67
2006	11/25	Nevada	7	Boise State	38
2005	10/29	Boise State	49	Nevada	14
2004	11/27	Nevada	21	Boise State	58
2003	11/29	Boise State	56	Nevada	3
2001	10/27	Boise State	49	Nevada	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	2	4	1 Overs
Boise State	17	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	9 - 10	6 - 2	3 - 1	3 - 1

(#66) BSU at (#133) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	NEV
Net PPPPPP	#69	#119
Power RatePwr	#66	#133
SP+SP+	#64	#116
Perf GradeGrade	#86	#90
OffenseOff	#81	#111
DefenseDef	#77	#34
Spec TeamsST	#54	#118
TalentTal	#77	#119
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#101

Boise State Notes(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report

Nevada Notes(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report

Boise State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	#52	#114
Perf GradePerf	#81	#34
SuccessSuc	#77	#93
ExplosiveExp	#47	#39
PPAPPA	#44	#94
PowerPwr	#68	#130
SP+SP+	#55	#81
Pts POPPO	#73	#112
HavocHav	#49	#100

Boise State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#23	#44
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#85
Run ExplRExp	#55	#109
PPAExp	#46	#126
Run BlockR Blk	#39	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#33	#110
TackleTak	-	#66

Boise State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#2
PPAExp	#62	#38
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#22
F7 HavocF7	#33	#93
DB HavocDB	#66	#86

Nevada on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	#84	#114
Perf GradePerf	#111	#77
SuccessSuc	#124	#14
ExplosiveExp	#102	#129
PPAPPA	#129	#53
PowerPwr	#134	#60
SP+SP+	#133	#60
Pts POPPO	#133	#111
HavocHav	#107	#50

Nevada Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#118	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#50
Run ExplRExp	#36	#134
PPAExp	#92	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#88
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#61
TackleTak	-	#134

Nevada Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#19
Pass SuccessPSuc	#118	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#124	#116
PPAExp	#135	#7
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#86	#82
F7 HavocF7	#114	#28
DB HavocDB	#86	#81

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Boise State 20.5 (51.5)
Boise State won at Nevada this year (24-3)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Nevada last year (28-21)
Boise State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-3)

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	176	302	58%	2333	18	9	7.7
Max Cutforth	95	167	57%	1059	4	5	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Riley	195	1125	10	5.8	77
Sire Gaines	161	812	8	5.0	46
Malik Sherrod (Tr)	85	418	4	4.9	44
Maddux Madsen	57	81	4	1.4	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Latrell Caples	51	616	3	12.1	34
Chris Marshall	30	574	2	19.1	46
Chase Penry	30	394	1	13.1	46
Matt Lauter	37	330	2	8.9	20

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	105	9	0	1	3
Marco Notarainni	77	6	3	8	2
Zion Washington	66	3	1	1	2
Boen Phelps	66	4	1	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Virgin	56	13	6	12
Braxton Fely	24	7	6	5
Sterling Lane	6	3	3	1
Malakai Williams (Tr)	11	4	3	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Earby	60	2	1	0	9
Sherrod Smith	14	1	0	0	6
Jaden Mickey (Tr)	38	7	1	1	5

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carter Jones	111	173	64%	1001	6	8	5.8
Chubba Purdy	44	86	51%	577	3	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Ramseur	139	683	5	4.9	32
Chubba Purdy	100	530	3	5.3	58
Herschel Turner (Tr)	69	353	0	5.1	64
Ky Woods	19	103	0	5.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jett Carpenter	35	374	2	10.7	44
Dakota Thomas (Tr)	26	268	1	10.3	25
Marcus Bellon	25	242	1	9.7	43
Caleb Ramseur	18	191	3	10.6	41

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	88	17	7	3	0
Stone Combs	72	5	1	1	1
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)	59	5	1	0	2
Nakian Jackson (Tr)	51	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	88	17	7	3	0
Jonathan Maldonado	38	9	5	1	4
Nelson Ropati	22	4	2	0	0
Myles Williams (Tr)	3	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
A.J. Odums	49	1	7
Edward Rhambo (Tr)	34	1	6
Bryson Snelling	14	0	4