Boise State at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Mackay Stadium - Reno, NV  (Mountain West)

 
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (34 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#6)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
BSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -24.5   (SP+ BSU -25.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 41 - NEV: 16 (56)
BSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
BSU Travel: 337 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#120)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-9.063.5
Sat 9/6 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-20
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-26
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+19
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-28.5
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-17
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-24.5
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-21.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-23

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.560.5
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-6
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-2.5
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+13
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+2.5
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+3
Sat 10/25 Nevada vs Boise State+24.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+4
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.5
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)37.349% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)22.639% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)23.147% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)28.849% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense1437.334.348.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36
NEV Defense1328.826.646.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense1422.624.538.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
NEV Offense1323.127.644.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 9.78 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 712.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.78   Nevada: -14.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 9.2   Nevada: -16.3




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -14.845 #116
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.33 #109
Nevada's Defense Rating: 25.72 #123
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #124
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #119

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.5

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 41
Nevada 16

Projected Total Points: 56
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.6

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Boise State28Nevada21Boise StateBoise State -23.5Nevada60.5Under
202211/12Nevada3Boise State41Boise StateBoise State -21Boise State47.0Under
202110/02Boise State31Nevada41NevadaBoise State -3.5Nevada59.0Over
201810/13Nevada27Boise State31Boise StateBoise State -15Nevada59.5Under
201711/04Boise State41Nevada14Boise StateBoise State -20.5Boise State63.0Under
201410/04Nevada46Boise State51Boise StateBoise State -1.5Boise State0
201310/19Boise State34Nevada17Boise StateBoise State -21.5Nevada0
201212/01Nevada21Boise State27Boise State
201110/01Boise State30Nevada10Boise State
201011/26Nevada34Boise State31Nevada
200911/27Boise State44Nevada33Boise State
200811/22Nevada34Boise State41Boise State
200710/14Boise State69Nevada67Boise State
200611/25Nevada7Boise State38Boise State
200510/29Boise State49Nevada14Boise State
200411/27Nevada21Boise State58Boise State
200311/29Boise State56Nevada3Boise State
200110/27Boise State49Nevada7Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada241 Overs
Boise State1634 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 82 - 51 - 31 - 2
Road Teams8 - 105 - 22 - 13 - 1

(#37) Boise State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.78 #37
Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53
Talent Rating: 712.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.83 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Boise State Notes
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs
(3/22) DE Vergin-Morgan, CB McCoy, S Benefield good
(3/22) OC Potter promoted after Koetter retired
(3/22) HC Danielson lost 1 game outside of bowls
Boise State     Ratings Matchup     Nevada
Power #37
#116
Off #24
#109
Def #56
#123
Talent #68
#112
SP+ #33
#124
SP+ Off #15
#114
SP+ Def #53
#119

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Nevada last year (28-21)
Boise State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BSU | NEV
Depth Chart: BSU | NEV
Rosters: BSU | NEV
(#116) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -14.845 #116
Offense Rating: 7.33 #109
Defense Rating: 25.72 #123
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #124
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #119
Talent Rating: 476.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #97
Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Nevada Notes
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
(4/9) Def ugly LY, return nothing. 10 portals. Yikes
(4/9) Choate got year 0. New OC, pass game better TY
(3/29) QB Purdy vs Blanco, not much playing exp


  
Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen24739662%30182367.6
Max Cutforth22100%13006.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Maddux Madsen5722153.949
Malik Sherrod (Tr)6019643.348
Sire Gaines2015617.838
Dylan Riley2213526.164
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matt Lauter48629713.153
Latrell Caples38473512.436
Austin Bolt16196412.344
Chase Penry14164011.742

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield825013
Zion Washington674006
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Marco Notarainni608433
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin40161050
Braxton Fely249610
Marco Notarainni608433
Max Stege145300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Jeremiah Earby341006
Zion Washington674006

Nevada's OC David Gilbertson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy182572%239119.6
AJ Bianco162467%173107.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner (Tr)7940545.143
Caleb Ramseur3211003.433
Chubba Purdy136004.619
Marcus Bellon93704.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Jordan Brown (Tr)11140012.742
Nick Rempert (Tr)11127111.540
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stone Combs583100
Austin Harnetiaux442010
Thomas Witte342010
Dylan Labarbera312000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Stone Combs583100
Jason Douglas Jr.11100
DJ Warnell41101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)221002
Charles Brown20001
Kaden Johnson171011