UNLV at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview
UNLV logo   UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolf Pack  Nevada logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (9:00 PM EST)
UNLV -7.5 (53.0) (-290)  Open: -9.5 | 53.5
UNLV 42 - Nevada: 17  (Mountain West)

 
Rebels (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (35 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#14)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
UNLV is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UNLV -14  (SP+ UNLV -17.5)

Projected Score: UNLV: 34 - NEV: 20 (54)
UNLV Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UNLV Travel: 345 miles
Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 UNLV vs Idaho State-30.567.0W 38 - 31ON
Fri 8/29 UNLV vs Sam Houston-13.558.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 9/6 UNLV vs UCLA+2.554.5W 30 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UNLV at Miami (OH)-2.549.5W 41 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UNLV at Wyoming-4.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 10/11 UNLV vs Air Force-7.065.5W 51 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 UNLV at Boise State+12.560.5L 31 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UNLV vs New Mexico-3.561.5L 35 - 40ON
Sat 11/8 UNLV at Colorado State-5.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/15 UNLV vs Utah State-4.568.5W 29 - 26UN
Fri 11/21 UNLV vs Hawai'i-2.564.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 UNLV at Nevada-7.553.0W 42 - 17OY
Fri 12/5 UNLV at Boise State+6.060.0L 21 - 38UN
Tue 12/23 UNLV vs Ohio-6.564.5L 10 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+10.052.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10.049.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.039.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+7.553.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV#56 (.21)42% (84)34.143% (83)3.36 (16)24840% (90)1734.26 (33)#34 (.11)37% (14)2840% (39)36% (14)4.05 (97)49.20.61.6
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)17.647% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)27.549% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Offense1434.134.741.7%4.260.6214202481735.761%39%43%40%14%.21
NEV Defense1327.525.246.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Defense142829.337.4%4.051.6 - - - - - 44%56%40%36%19%.11
NEV Offense1317.619.744.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UNLV1429:5921.140%70%5.649.20.61.66.32.6434.7
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense1461% (8)43% (83)43.5247.85.729 (18).23 (23)3.36 (16)73% (71)9% (58)1.16 (9)
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense1444% (8)40% (39) - - - - .11 (63)2.63 (19)73% (65)10% (55)1.08 (108)
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense1439% (127)40% (90)12.722.1172.67.813.625 (31)6 (10).2 (94)1.7 (32)30% (43)29% (93).26 (97)5% (25)2.1 (58)
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense1456% (128)36% (14) - - - - - - 17 (5).13 (25)1.5 (47)36% (17)25% (7).19 (24)8% (9)2.2 (106)
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -9.39  #99
UNLV's Offense Rating: 12.00  #74
UNLV's Defense Rating: 21.39  #117
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 10.7 - 3.3
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3  #57
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.8  #25
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8  #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -9.39   Nevada: -16.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 4.3   Nevada: -13.4




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -16.485  #134
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #135
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.37  #131
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
UNLV 34
Nevada 20


Projected Total Points: 54
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Nevada17UNLV42UNLV -7.5UNLV53.0Over
202411/30UNLV38Nevada14UNLV -17.5UNLV54.5Under
202310/14Nevada27UNLV45UNLV -7.5UNLV51.5Over
202211/26UNLV27Nevada22UNLV -12.5Nevada49.0Push
202110/29Nevada51UNLV20Nevada -19Nevada58.0Over
202010/31UNLV19Nevada37Nevada -10.5Nevada0
201911/30Nevada30UNLV33Nevada -6.5UNLV52.0Over
201811/24UNLV34Nevada29Nevada -14UNLV60.5Over
201711/25Nevada23UNLV16Nevada -3Nevada70.0Under
201611/26UNLV10Nevada45UNLV -7Nevada59.0Under
201510/03Nevada17UNLV23Nevada -11.5UNLV57.0Under
201411/29UNLV27Nevada49Nevada -10Nevada0
201310/26Nevada22UNLV27Nevada -3.5UNLV0
201210/13UNLV37Nevada42
201110/08Nevada37UNLV0
201010/02UNLV26Nevada44
200910/03Nevada63UNLV28
200809/27UNLV27Nevada49
200709/29Nevada27UNLV20
200609/30UNLV3Nevada31
200509/17Nevada22UNLV14
200410/02UNLV48Nevada13
200310/04Nevada12UNLV16
200210/05UNLV21Nevada17
200110/06Nevada12UNLV27
200010/06UNLV38Nevada7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada1365 Overs
UNLV1374 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 144 - 93 - 51 - 4
Road Teams14 - 129 - 44 - 15 - 3

(#99) UNLV at (#134) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNLVNEV
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #99 #134
SP+SP+ #57 #116
Perf GradeGrade #57 #90
OffenseOff #28 #111
DefenseDef #104 #34
Spec TeamsST #70 #118
TalentTal #76 #119
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
UNLV Notes
(10/31) Team has huge flag issues, smoke & mirrors team
(10/9) RB Jai'Den Thomas & WR Jaden Bradley are weapons
(10/9) Have played very weak schedule going into Boise
(9/21) Nearly lost to Mia OH off bye? Colandrea meh
(9/8) QB2 Alex Orji out for season (hamstring)
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(6/28) New OC Dennis was Ohio St QB coach, Urbs SIL
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
UNLV Injury Report
Nevada Notes
(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report
UNLV on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffNEV Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #28 #34
SuccessSuc #84 #117
ExplosiveExp #23 #59
PPAPPA #56 #110
PowerPwr #74 #131
SP+SP+ #25 #81
Pts POPPO #33 #114
HavocHav #41 #95
UNLV Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #1 #44
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #121
Run ExplRExp #9 #107
PPAExp #23 #130
Run BlockR Blk #85 -
OL YdsOLY #16 #91
Stuff RateStuff #40 #69
TackleTak -  #66
UNLV Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNLV OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #15 #49
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #92
Pass ExplPExl #32 #49
PPAExp #94 #50
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #37 #22
F7 HavocF7 #58 #119
DB HavocDB #25 #47
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffUNLV Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #111 #104
SuccessSuc #46 #14
ExplosiveExp #94 #93
PPAPPA #55 #34
PowerPwr #135 #117
SP+SP+ #133 #89
Pts POPPO #73 #97
HavocHav #78 #27
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffUNLV Def
Run GameRun #118 #116
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #39
Run ExplRExp #64 #108
PPAExp #51 #63
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #59 #19
Stuff RateStuff #47 #18
TackleTak -  #75
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffUNLV Def
Pass GamePass #134 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #65 #14
Pass ExplPExl #71 #47
PPAExp #57 #25
Pass Block/RushP Blk #86 #26
F7 HavocF7 #81 #55
DB HavocDB #74 #9
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
UNLV 7.5 (53.0)
UNLV won at Nevada this year (42-17)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Nevada last year (42-17)
UNLV beat Nevada in 2024 (38-14)
UNLV beat Nevada in 2023 (45-27)

  
UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)27541766%34592398.3
Alex Orji (Tr)33100%370012.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jai'Den Thomas1481034127.070
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)127650105.137
Keyvone Lee (Tr)10044064.422
Jaylon Glover (Tr)6438416.043
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Bradley58931416.156
Troy Omeire (Tr)32521516.368
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)33471514.386
JoJo Earle (Tr)22258011.737

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Zach Anrett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marsel McDuffie1126223
Jake Pope (Tr)803213
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)738403
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)632025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tunmise Adeleye (Tr)488663
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)738403
Aamaris Brown (Tr)435407
Lucas Conti224310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)435407
Quandarius Keyes141006
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)632025

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
Chubba Purdy448651%577386.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur13968354.932
Chubba Purdy10053035.358
Herschel Turner (Tr)6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter35374210.744
Dakota Thomas (Tr)26268110.325
Marcus Bellon2524219.743
Caleb Ramseur18191310.641

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Stone Combs725111
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)595102
Nakian Jackson (Tr)510000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jonathan Maldonado389514
Nelson Ropati224200
Thomas Witte253111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Odums491007
Edward Rhambo (Tr)341006
Bryson Snelling140004