UNLV at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (9:00 PM EST)
UNLV -7.5 (53.0) (-290) Open: -9.5 | 53.5
UNLV 42 - Nevada: 17 (Mountain West)

Rebels (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (35 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#14)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

NEV is playing their 4th straight game
UNLV is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UNLV -17 (SP+ UNLV -22)
Projected Score: UNLV: 35 - NEV: 18 (53)
UNLV Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UNLV Travel: 345 miles

Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
UNLV Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UNLV's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	UNLV vs Idaho State	-30.5	67.0	W 38 - 31	O	N
Fri 8/29	UNLV vs Sam Houston	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/6	UNLV vs UCLA	+2.5	54.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UNLV at Miami (OH)	-2.5	49.5	W 41 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	UNLV at Wyoming	-4.5	50.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/11	UNLV vs Air Force	-7.0	65.5	W 51 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/18	UNLV at Boise State	+12.5	60.5	L 31 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UNLV vs New Mexico	-3.5	61.5	L 35 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/8	UNLV at Colorado State	-5.5	60.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/15	UNLV vs Utah State	-4.5	68.5	W 29 - 26	U	N
Fri 11/21	UNLV vs Hawai'i	-2.5	64.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/29	UNLV at Nevada	-7.5	53.0	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Fri 12/5	UNLV at Boise State	+6.0	60.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Tue 12/23	UNLV vs Ohio	-6.5	64.5	L 10 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Nevada's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Nevada at Penn State	+45.5	58.5	L 11 - 46	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Nevada vs Sacramento State	-8.0	56.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Nevada vs Middle Tennessee	-9.0	50.0	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Nevada at Western Kentucky	+8.5	54.5	L 16 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Nevada at Fresno State	+12.5	45.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Nevada vs San Diego State	+6.5	42.5	L 10 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/18	Nevada at New Mexico	+14.0	49.5	L 22 - 24	U	Y
Fri 10/24	Nevada vs Boise State	+20.5	51.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Nevada at Utah State	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/15	Nevada vs San José State	+10.0	49.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Nevada at Wyoming	+6.0	39.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	53.0	L 17 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	#17 (.3)	47% (22)	34.1	48% (22)	3.19 (24)	189	46% (26)	238	4.45 (22)	#107 (.21)	44% (104)	28	45% (103)	43% (92)	3.78 (78)	63.4	1.1	1.5
NEV	#129 (.02)	37% (124)	17.6	37% (123)	2.83 (88)	155	36% (118)	147	2.67 (133)	#93 (.19)	44% (92)	27.5	44% (84)	43% (93)	4.15 (112)	45.2	2.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)		43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)		40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Offense	14	34.1	34.7	46.8%	4.45	1.1	22	427	189	238	5.7	49%	49%	48%	46%	16%	.3
NEV Defense	12	27.5	25.2	43.5%	4.15	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	44%	43%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Defense	14	28	29.3	44.3%	3.78	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	50%	45%	43%	15%	.21
NEV Offense	12	17.6	19.7	36.6%	2.67	2.3	17	302	155	147	4.5	56%	42%	37%	36%	17%	.02

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UNLV	14	28:42	21.9	46%	59%	7.3	63.4	1.1	1.5	4.6	2.1	5	28.2
Nevada	12	30:19	17.3	32%	54%	5.3	45.2	2.3	1.3	5.3	1.6	3	30.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense	14	49% (69)	48% (22)	33.2	189	5.7	32 (30)	.26 (11)	3.19 (24)	71% (75)	10% (103)	1.09 (21)
NEV Defense	12	50% (68)	44% (84)	-	-	-	-	.22 (126)	3.08 (104)	72% (77)	9% (94)	1.05 (111)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense	14	47% (41)	45% (103)	-	-	-	-	.23 (130)	3.15 (112)	62% (15)	9% (103)	1.11 (126)
NEV Offense	12	56% (23)	37% (123)	34.6	155.3	4.5	9 (132)	.07 (89)	2.83 (88)	72% (68)	11% (115)	1.04 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense	14	49% (69)	46% (26)	18.6	28.1	237.7	8.5	12.8	24 (42)	8 (34)	.37 (33)	1.6 (54)	30% (53)	36% (16)	.47 (16)	6% (54)	2.1 (55)
NEV Defense	12	48% (70)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (75)	.18 (40)	1.3 (2)	32% (65)	28% (41)	.26 (57)	6% (87)	1.8 (17)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense	14	50% (93)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.25 (70)	1.6 (70)	31% (74)	31% (86)	.2 (31)	6% (54)	1.9 (29)
NEV Offense	12	42% (114)	36% (118)	15.2	25.7	147.2	5.7	9.7	10 (121)	17 (134)	-.02 (135)	1.4 (123)	34% (109)	24% (130)	-.05 (136)	6% (84)	1.6 (136)

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: -0.88 #71
UNLV's Offense Rating: 14.41 #44
UNLV's Defense Rating: 15.29 #112
2025 Talent Rating: 698.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
UNLV's 2025 Expected Record: 10.7 - 3.3
UNLV's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.7 #41
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.4 #14
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #87

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -0.88 Nevada: -13.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 7.7 Nevada: -14.1

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.53 #132
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20 #131
Nevada's Defense Rating: 17.76 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.1 #118
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #78

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

UNLV's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 35
Nevada 18

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
UNLV 30
Nevada 20

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
UNLV 31
Nevada 24

Total Points: 55

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Nevada	17	UNLV	42	UNLV -7.5	UNLV	53.0	Over
2024	11/30	UNLV	38	Nevada	14	UNLV -17.5	UNLV	54.5	Under
2023	10/14	Nevada	27	UNLV	45	UNLV -7.5	UNLV	51.5	Over
2022	11/26	UNLV	27	Nevada	22	UNLV -12.5	Nevada	49.0	Push
2021	10/29	Nevada	51	UNLV	20	Nevada -19	Nevada	58.0	Over
2020	10/31	UNLV	19	Nevada	37	Nevada -10.5	Nevada	0
2019	11/30	Nevada	30	UNLV	33	Nevada -6.5	UNLV	52.0	Over
2018	11/24	UNLV	34	Nevada	29	Nevada -14	UNLV	60.5	Over
2017	11/25	Nevada	23	UNLV	16	Nevada -3	Nevada	70.0	Under
2016	11/26	UNLV	10	Nevada	45	UNLV -7	Nevada	59.0	Under
2015	10/03	Nevada	17	UNLV	23	Nevada -11.5	UNLV	57.0	Under
2014	11/29	UNLV	27	Nevada	49	Nevada -10	Nevada	0
2013	10/26	Nevada	22	UNLV	27	Nevada -3.5	UNLV	0
2012	10/13	UNLV	37	Nevada	42
2011	10/08	Nevada	37	UNLV	0
2010	10/02	UNLV	26	Nevada	44
2009	10/03	Nevada	63	UNLV	28
2008	09/27	UNLV	27	Nevada	49
2007	09/29	Nevada	27	UNLV	20
2006	09/30	UNLV	3	Nevada	31
2005	09/17	Nevada	22	UNLV	14
2004	10/02	UNLV	48	Nevada	13
2003	10/04	Nevada	12	UNLV	16
2002	10/05	UNLV	21	Nevada	17
2001	10/06	Nevada	12	UNLV	27
2000	10/06	UNLV	38	Nevada	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	13	6	5 Overs
UNLV	13	7	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	4 - 9	3 - 5	1 - 4
Road Teams	14 - 12	9 - 4	4 - 1	5 - 3

(#71) UNLV at (#132) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNLV	NEV
Power RatePwr	#71	#132
SP+SP+	#41	#118
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#97
OffenseOff	#27	#112
DefenseDef	#89	#45
Spec TeamsST	#77	#119
TalentTal	#76	#119
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

UNLV Notes(10/31) Team has huge flag issues, smoke & mirrors team
(10/9) RB Jai'Den Thomas & WR Jaden Bradley are weapons
(10/9) Have played very weak schedule going into Boise
(9/21) Nearly lost to Mia OH off bye? Colandrea meh
(9/8) QB2 Alex Orji out for season (hamstring)
(8/30) Colandrea & Off very good start, Def imp vs SHSU
(7/31) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 7 portals. Have talent
(7/31) Def replace almost all. 21 portal adds, lots of ?
(7/31) New HC Mullen big ? Could go a lot of ways
(6/28) New OC Dennis was Ohio St QB coach, Urbs SIL
(5/15) Easiest SOS in MWC, bottom 10 in CFB
(5/4) 41 portals, 24 from P4 schools, 17 prev 4/5 *
UNLV Injury Report

Nevada Notes(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report

UNLV on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NEV Def
Perf GradePerf	#27	#45
SuccessSuc	#22	#92
ExplosiveExp	#26	#38
PPAPPA	#17	#93
PowerPwr	#44	#124
SP+SP+	#14	#78
Pts POPPO	#22	#112
HavocHav	#79	#100

UNLV Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#4	#54
Run SuccessRSuc	#22	#84
Run ExplRExp	#21	#111
PPAExp	#11	#126
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#24	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#63	#111
TackleTak	-	#68

UNLV Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#16	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#54	#2
PPAExp	#33	#40
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#66	#14
F7 HavocF7	#103	#94
DB HavocDB	#54	#87

Nevada on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	UNLV Def
Perf GradePerf	#112	#89
SuccessSuc	#124	#104
ExplosiveExp	#102	#112
PPAPPA	#129	#107
PowerPwr	#131	#112
SP+SP+	#133	#87
Pts POPPO	#133	#78
HavocHav	#107	#84

Nevada Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#126	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#103
Run ExplRExp	#38	#126
PPAExp	#89	#130
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	#88	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#101
TackleTak	-	#71

Nevada Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#131	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#118	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#70
PPAExp	#135	#70
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#21
F7 HavocF7	#115	#103
DB HavocDB	#84	#54

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 42°

Rematch from Week 14
UNLV 7.5 (53.0)
UNLV won at Nevada this year (42-17)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Nevada last year (38-14)
UNLV beat Nevada in 2023 (45-27)
UNLV beat Nevada in 2022 (27-22)

UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)	275	417	66%	3459	23	9	8.3
Alex Orji (Tr)	3	3	100%	37	0	0	12.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	148	1034	12	7.0	70
Anthony Colandrea (Tr)	127	650	10	5.1	37
Keyvone Lee (Tr)	100	440	6	4.4	22
Jaylon Glover (Tr)	64	384	1	6.0	43

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Bradley	58	931	4	16.1	56
Troy Omeire (Tr)	32	521	5	16.3	68
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)	33	471	5	14.3	86
JoJo Earle (Tr)	22	258	0	11.7	37

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (Int) (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marsel McDuffie	112	6	2	2	3
Jake Pope (Tr)	80	3	2	1	3
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)	73	8	4	0	3
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)	63	2	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tunmise Adeleye (Tr)	48	8	6	6	3
Jaheem Joseph (Tr)	73	8	4	0	3
Aamaris Brown (Tr)	43	5	4	0	7
Lucas Conti	22	4	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aamaris Brown (Tr)	43	5	4	0	7
Quandarius Keyes	14	1	0	0	6
Andrew Powdrell (Tr)	63	2	0	2	5

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carter Jones	111	173	64%	1001	6	8	5.8
Chubba Purdy	44	86	51%	577	3	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Ramseur	139	683	5	4.9	32
Chubba Purdy	100	530	3	5.3	58
Herschel Turner (Tr)	69	353	0	5.1	64
Ky Woods	19	103	0	5.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jett Carpenter	35	374	2	10.7	44
Dakota Thomas (Tr)	26	268	1	10.3	25
Marcus Bellon	25	242	1	9.7	43
Caleb Ramseur	18	191	3	10.6	41

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	88	17	7	3	0
Stone Combs	72	5	1	1	1
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)	59	5	1	0	2
Nakian Jackson (Tr)	51	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	88	17	7	3	0
Jonathan Maldonado	38	9	5	1	4
Nelson Ropati	22	4	2	0	0
Myles Williams (Tr)	3	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
A.J. Odums	49	1	7
Edward Rhambo (Tr)	34	1	6
Bryson Snelling	14	0	4