Middle Tennessee at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo   Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Nevada Wolf Pack  Nevada logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (5:00 PM EDT)
Nevada -9.0 (50.0) (-350)  Open: -8.5 | 46.5
Middle Tennessee 14 - Nevada: 13

 
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
MTSU 2nd straight Road Game
NEV 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -2  (SP+ NEV -3)

Projected Score: MTSU: 26 - NEV: 24 (49)
NEV Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
MTSU Travel: 1836 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.054.5L 16 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.552.5L 20 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.555.5L 28 - 31OY
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.554.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.550.5L 30 - 56ON
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.551.5L 26 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.553.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.552.0W 31 - 24OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+10.052.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10.049.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.039.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+7.553.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)22.438% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)30.950% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)17.647% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)27.549% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1222.420.839.4%31.618352912613.241%59%38%40%19%.13
NEV Defense1327.525.246.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1230.929.349.4%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%49%14%.32
NEV Offense1317.619.744.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1230:1518.238%48%7.361.31.60.84.61.7125.2
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1241% (123)38% (114)27.990.53.210 (122).04 (110)2.82 (104)56% (132)11% (100)0.98 (62)
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1254% (104)50% (124) - - - - .19 (107)3.19 (97)72% (61)9% (100)0.97 (59)
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1259% (11)40% (83)22.835.6261.17.311.516 (87)10 (63).19 (95)1.5 (102)32% (84)25% (123).17 (121)7% (112)1.9 (113)
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1246% (33)49% (127) - - - - - - 5 (117).47 (129)1.6 (90)27% (127)34% (109).53 (128)5% (101)2.3 (128)
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -12.58  #111
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 9.44  #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 22.02  #122
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00  #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4  #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -12.58   Nevada: -16.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.0   Nevada: -13.4




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -16.485  #134
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #135
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.37  #131
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 26
Nevada 24


Projected Total Points: 49
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Nevada13Middle Tennessee14Nevada -9.0Middle Tennessee50.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada000 Overs
Middle Tennessee111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#111) MTSU at (#134) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSUNEV
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #111 #134
SP+SP+ #127 #116
Perf GradeGrade #114 #90
OffenseOff #122 #111
DefenseDef #72 #34
Spec TeamsST #131 #118
TalentTal #124 #119
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report
Nevada Notes
(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffNEV Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #122 #34
SuccessSuc #105 #117
ExplosiveExp #53 #59
PPAPPA #107 #110
PowerPwr #91 #131
SP+SP+ #110 #81
Pts POPPO #128 #114
HavocHav #113 #95
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #86 #44
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #121
Run ExplRExp #62 #107
PPAExp #110 #130
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #104 #91
Stuff RateStuff #125 #69
TackleTak -  #66
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #52 #49
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #92
Pass ExplPExl #102 #49
PPAExp #95 #50
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #128 #22
F7 HavocF7 #100 #119
DB HavocDB #112 #47
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffMTSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #111 #72
SuccessSuc #46 #130
ExplosiveExp #94 #71
PPAPPA #55 #129
PowerPwr #135 #122
SP+SP+ #133 #128
Pts POPPO #73 #126
HavocHav #78 #108
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffMTSU Def
Run GameRun #118 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #124
Run ExplRExp #64 #59
PPAExp #51 #107
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #59 #97
Stuff RateStuff #47 #62
TackleTak -  #26
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePass #134 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #65 #127
Pass ExplPExl #71 #90
PPAExp #57 #129
Pass Block/RushP Blk #86 #75
F7 HavocF7 #81 #100
DB HavocDB #74 #101
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Nevada -9.0 (50.0)
Middle Tennessee won at Nevada this year (14-13)

Previous Matchups
Middle Tennessee beat Nevada last year (14-13)

  
MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato21935761%21571676.0
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook14075245.472
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Rickey Hunt3411113.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
Myles Butler52518210.052
Nahzae Cox40473511.843
Jekail Middlebrook40412310.348

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes893022
Anthony Bynum636384
Shakai Woods487331
Korey Smith381002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner357512
Reggie Johnson3510472
Damonte Smith3311342
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
De'Arre McDonald290007
Abdul Muhammad290007
Jackson Lowe362004

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
Chubba Purdy448651%577386.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur13968354.932
Chubba Purdy10053035.358
Herschel Turner (Tr)6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter35374210.744
Dakota Thomas (Tr)26268110.325
Marcus Bellon2524219.743
Caleb Ramseur18191310.641

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Stone Combs725111
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)595102
Nakian Jackson (Tr)510000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jonathan Maldonado389514
Nelson Ropati224200
Thomas Witte253111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Odums491007
Edward Rhambo (Tr)341006
Bryson Snelling140004