San José State at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview
San José State logo San José State Spartans at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
San José State -10 (49.5) (-375)  Open: -8.5
Nevada 55 - San José State: 10  (Mountain West)

 
Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Wind: 12.4 MPH
Our Line: San José State -2  (SP+ SJSU -0.5)

Projected Score: SJSU: 26 - NEV: 24 (50)
SJSU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
SJSU Travel: 190 miles
Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+3.049.5L 29 - 30OY
Fri 10/3 San José State vs New Mexico-1.558.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-1.550.5L 28 - 35ON
Fri 10/17 San José State at Utah State+3.063.5L 25 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.555.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6.067.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10.049.5L 10 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+10.050.5L 3 - 25UN
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+3.546.0L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+10.052.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10.049.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.039.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+7.553.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 3

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#66 (.18)44% (55)21.447% (29)3.06 (44)12041% (73)2832.77 (130)#98 (.2)42% (78)32.542% (66)43% (82)4.04 (106)54.82.31.2
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (88)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#93 (.19)44% (92)27.544% (84)43% (93)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Offense1221.41743.5%2.772.3204031202834.638%60%47%41%15%.18
NEV Defense1227.525.243.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Defense1232.535.542.1%4.041.2 - - - - - 54%44%42%43%12%.2
NEV Offense1217.619.736.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San José State1227:4720.143%26%5.854.82.31.24.31.5127.2
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense1238% (132)47% (29)26.1120.14.614 (107).12 (66)3.06 (44)71% (78)6% (2)0.94 (78)
NEV Defense1250% (68)44% (84) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (94)1.05 (111)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense1254% (117)42% (66) - - - - .11 (69)3.02 (97)80% (121)8% (123)0.9 (37)
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (89)2.83 (88)72% (68)11% (115)1.04 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense1260% (5)41% (73)22.840.6283.2712.517 (30)17 (34).22 (82)1.5 (106)32% (86)32% (47).29 (72)9% (135)1.8 (124)
NEV Defense1248% (70)43% (93) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (40)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (41).26 (57)6% (87)1.8 (17)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense1244% (21)43% (82) - - - - - - 7 (38).34 (110)1.8 (128)31% (85)28% (54).32 (84)5% (119)2.1 (111)
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (123)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (84)1.6 (136)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -9.28  #106
San José State's Offense Rating: 4.69  #91
San José State's Defense Rating: 13.97  #104
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5  #116
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #107
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -9.28   Nevada: -13.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -13.5   Nevada: -14.1




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.53  #132
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #131
Nevada's Defense Rating: 17.76  #124
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.1  #118
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #78

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San José State 26
Nevada 24


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
San José State 31
Nevada 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Nevada 26
San José State 23

Total Points: 49
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Nevada55San José State10San José State -10Nevada49.5Over
202410/05San José State35Nevada31San José State -7Nevada51.5Over
202210/29San José State35Nevada28San José State -24.5Nevada44.5Over
202111/06Nevada27San José State24Nevada -11.5San José State55.5Under
202012/11San José State30Nevada20Nevada -1.5San José State60.5Under
201910/12Nevada41San José State38Nevada -3Push60.5Over
201811/17San José State12Nevada21Nevada -14.5San José State59.5Under
201711/11Nevada59San José State14Nevada -17.5Nevada67.5Over
201610/15San José State14Nevada10San José State -5Nevada56.0Under
201511/14Nevada37San José State34Nevada -1Nevada52.5Over
201409/27San José State10Nevada21Nevada -3Nevada0
201311/16Nevada38San José State16San José State -7Nevada0
201109/17San José State14Nevada17
201010/09Nevada35San José State13
200911/08San José State7Nevada62
200811/15Nevada41San José State17
200711/24San José State27Nevada24
200610/21Nevada23San José State7
200510/01San José State23Nevada30
200411/06Nevada42San José State24
200309/18San José State30Nevada42
200210/19Nevada52San José State24
200111/10San José State64Nevada45
200010/20Nevada30San José State49
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada1786 Overs
San José State734 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams17 - 76 - 52 - 44 - 1
Road Teams7 - 175 - 61 - 44 - 2

(#106) SJSU at (#132) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSJSUNEV
Power RatePwr #106 #132
SP+SP+ #116 #118
Perf GradeGrade #109 #97
OffenseOff #115 #112
DefenseDef #74 #45
Spec TeamsST #29 #119
TalentTal #117 #119
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
San José State Notes
(11/21) DC Derrick Odum fired after Nevada blowout
(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
San José State Injury Report
Nevada Notes
(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffNEV Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #45
SuccessSuc #55 #92
ExplosiveExp #59 #38
PPAPPA #66 #93
PowerPwr #91 #124
SP+SP+ #107 #78
Pts POPPO #130 #112
HavocHav #69 #100
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #61 #54
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #84
Run ExplRExp #78 #111
PPAExp #66 #126
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #44 #104
Stuff RateStuff #84 #111
TackleTak -  #68
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #100 #73
Pass SuccessPSuc #73 #93
Pass ExplPExl #106 #2
PPAExp #82 #40
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #128 #14
F7 HavocF7 #2 #94
DB HavocDB #135 #87
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffSJSU Def
Perf GradePerf #112 #74
SuccessSuc #124 #78
ExplosiveExp #102 #100
PPAPPA #129 #98
PowerPwr #131 #104
SP+SP+ #133 #115
Pts POPPO #133 #106
HavocHav #107 #129
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #126 #27
Run SuccessRSuc #123 #66
Run ExplRExp #38 #37
PPAExp #89 #69
Run BlockR Blk #24 -
OL YdsOLY #88 #97
Stuff RateStuff #80 #128
TackleTak -  #81
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #131 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #118 #82
Pass ExplPExl #123 #128
PPAExp #135 #110
Pass Block/RushP Blk #77 #84
F7 HavocF7 #115 #123
DB HavocDB #84 #119
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 60° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 12
San José State 10.0 (49.5)
Nevada won vs San José State this year (55-10)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Nevada last year (35-31)
San José State beat Nevada in 2022 (35-28)

  
SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget23239359%30581797.8
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Steve Chavez-Soto8744875.166
Lamar Radcliffe6634015.230
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)8812971014.772
Kyri Shoels59768213.043
Leland Smith (Tr)43695316.245
Jackson Canaan3331509.544

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Bojay Filimoeatu (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard1085344
Taniela Latu656113
Noah McNeal-Franklin636132
Jaylen Thomas591006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)347471
Gafa Faga476350
Jordan Pollard1085344
Quincy Likio415210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Thomas591006
Jalen Bainer441105
Jordan Pollard1085344

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
Chubba Purdy448651%577386.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur13968354.932
Chubba Purdy10053035.358
Herschel Turner (Tr)6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter35374210.744
Dakota Thomas (Tr)26268110.325
Marcus Bellon2524219.743
Caleb Ramseur18191310.641

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Stone Combs725111
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)595102
Nakian Jackson (Tr)510000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jonathan Maldonado389514
Nelson Ropati224200
Myles Williams (Tr)31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Odums491007
Edward Rhambo (Tr)341006
Bryson Snelling140004