Nevada at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 8th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Romney Stadium - Logan, UT (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (1 - 5) (2 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 15 - 29 (15 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.1 - 9.9 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

NEV coming off BYE
USU coming off BYE
Our Line: Utah State -11.5 (SP+ USU -11)
Projected Score: NEV: 22 - USU: 33 (55)
USU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
NEV Travel: 446 miles, 1 hrs behind

Aggies (3 - 3) (5 - 1 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 33 (42 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 6.3 (#85)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Nevada at Penn State	+45.5	58.5	L 11 - 46	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Nevada vs Sacramento State	-8.0	56.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Nevada vs Middle Tennessee	-9.0	50.0	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Nevada at Western Kentucky	+8.5	54.5	L 16 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Nevada at Fresno State	+12.5	45.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Nevada vs San Diego State	+6.5	42.5	L 10 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/18	Nevada at New Mexico	+11.5	49.5
Fri 10/24	Nevada vs Boise State	+17
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Nevada at Utah State	+11.5
Sat 11/15	Nevada vs San José State	+6
Sat 11/22	Nevada at Wyoming	+16
Sat 11/29	Nevada vs UNLV	+16

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.5	63.5
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-11.5
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+12.5
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+5.5
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+8

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#135 (-.03)	35% (131)	14.5	37% (122)	2.68 (107)	161	33% (130)	149	2.25 (135)	#101 (.22)	47% (125)	28.7	49% (125)	46% (111)	4.14 (95)	35.2	2.7	0.8
USU	#48 (.24)	43% (70)	34.7	43% (74)	2.86 (81)	169	43% (65)	255	5.41 (4)	#116 (.25)	46% (119)	32.7	48% (121)	45% (107)	5.14 (136)	55.2	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	6	14.5	14.7	35.3%	2.25	2.7	17	310	161	149	4.4	59%	40%	37%	33%	18%	-.03
USU Defense	6	32.7	17.7	46.4%	5.14	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	48%	45%	11%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	6	28.7	32.3	47.4%	4.14	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	49%	46%	14%	.22
USU Offense	6	34.7	41.7	43.1%	5.41	1	21	424	169	255	5.1	47%	53%	43%	43%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	6	29:20	17	33%	67%	3.8	35.2	2.7	0.8	6.2	2.5	1	29.7
Utah State	6	27:01	21	29%	60%	7.8	55.2	1	1.2	5	2.7	0	28.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	6	59% (18)	37% (122)	36.2	160.7	4.4	2 (136)	.1 (84)	2.68 (107)	78% (38)	11% (110)	1.09 (26)
USU Defense	6	49% (61)	48% (121)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.01 (93)	79% (107)	7% (128)	1.02 (89)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	6	50% (75)	49% (125)	-	-	-	-	.25 (125)	3.24 (124)	73% (79)	10% (63)	0.93 (58)
USU Offense	6	47% (91)	43% (74)	33.2	169.2	5.1	12 (48)	.22 (32)	2.86 (81)	71% (76)	12% (121)	1.21 (9)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	6	40% (122)	33% (130)	13.5	25.5	149	5.8	11	5 (116)	12 (135)	-.2 (136)	1.6 (59)	35% (123)	25% (109)	-.1 (135)	7% (101)	1.6 (135)
USU Defense	6	51% (75)	45% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (29)	.26 (81)	1.3 (8)	26% (132)	29% (66)	.21 (43)	4% (119)	1.8 (23)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	6	50% (65)	46% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (62)	.2 (57)	1.2 (4)	29% (110)	26% (37)	.31 (82)	4% (125)	2 (65)
USU Offense	6	53% (44)	43% (65)	19.7	30.7	254.7	8.3	13	16 (9)	2 (11)	.26 (79)	1.5 (97)	32% (89)	31% (68)	.36 (57)	4% (32)	2.1 (44)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -20.58 #134
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20 #131
Nevada's Defense Rating: 20.48 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 2.1 - 9.9
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.0 #126
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.0 #127
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #110

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -20.58 Utah State: -7.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -17.0 Utah State: -6.1

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.37 #118
Utah State's Offense Rating: 10.93 #69
Utah State's Defense Rating: 24.57 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.7 - 6.3
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.1 #90
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #48
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 14.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.7
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 33
Nevada 22

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Utah State 35
Nevada 21

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Utah State 35
Nevada 20

Total Points: 55

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 34.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.7
Defense: 32.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Utah State	41	Nevada	24	Utah State -14.5	Utah State	54.5	Over
2020	11/05	Nevada	34	Utah State	9	Nevada -17	Nevada	57.5	Under
2019	10/19	Utah State	36	Nevada	10	Utah State -21	Utah State	59.0	Under
2016	11/19	Nevada	38	Utah State	37	Utah State -5	Nevada	56.5	Over
2015	11/21	Utah State	31	Nevada	27	Utah State -14	Nevada	54.5	Over
2011	11/26	Utah State	21	Nevada	17
2010	10/30	Nevada	56	Utah State	42
2009	10/17	Utah State	32	Nevada	35
2008	10/18	Nevada	44	Utah State	17
2007	10/20	Utah State	28	Nevada	31
2006	11/11	Nevada	42	Utah State	0
2005	11/19	Utah State	24	Nevada	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	4	2	3 Overs
Nevada	8	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 3	4 - 1	3 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 9	1 - 4	0 - 1	1 - 3

(#134) NEV at (#118) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	USU
Power RatePwr	#134	#118
SP+SP+	#126	#90
Perf GradeGrade	#112	#91
OffenseOff	#124	#89
DefenseDef	#69	#79
Spec TeamsST	#121	#115
TalentTal	#119	#118
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Nevada Notes
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)

Utah State Notes
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)

Nevada on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
Perf GradePerf	#124	#79
SuccessSuc	#131	#119
ExplosiveExp	#52	#34
PPAPPA	#135	#116
PowerPwr	#131	#133
SP+SP+	#127	#127
Pts POPPO	#135	#136
HavocHav	#114	#132

Nevada Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#128	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	#122	#121
Run ExplRExp	#26	#89
PPAExp	#84	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	#93
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#92
TackleTak	-	#92

Nevada Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#124	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#130	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#8
PPAExp	#136	#81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#80	#87
F7 HavocF7	#110	#128
DB HavocDB	#101	#119

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
Perf GradePerf	#89	#69
SuccessSuc	#70	#125
ExplosiveExp	#29	#8
PPAPPA	#48	#101
PowerPwr	#69	#126
SP+SP+	#48	#110
Pts POPPO	#4	#95
HavocHav	#83	#112

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#100	#95
Run SuccessRSuc	#74	#125
Run ExplRExp	#9	#58
PPAExp	#32	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#128
TackleTak	-	#67

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#55	#89
Pass SuccessPSuc	#65	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#97	#4
PPAExp	#79	#57
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#116	#4
F7 HavocF7	#121	#63
DB HavocDB	#32	#125

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Nevada in 2023 (41-24)

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chubba Purdy	40	77	52%	494	1	8	6.4
Carter Jones	27	48	56%	298	3	3	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chubba Purdy	60	292	2	4.9	30
Caleb Ramseur	56	271	0	4.8	27
Herschel Turner (Tr)	51	219	0	4.3	64
Ky Woods	11	84	0	7.6	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marcus Bellon	15	193	1	12.9	43
Jett Carpenter	16	185	0	11.6	44
Jordan Brown (Tr)	13	164	0	12.6	28
Ky Woods	3	59	1	19.7	47

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	51	14	6	2	0
Stone Combs	36	3	1	0	0
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)	29	1	0	0	0
A.J. Odums	25	0	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	51	14	6	2	0
Jonathan Maldonado	21	6	4	0	3
Nelson Ropati	11	2	2	0	0
Nahji Logan (Tr)	8	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)	18	0	0	3
Jonathan Maldonado	21	6	4	3
A.J. Odums	25	0	0	2

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	99	155	64%	1318	12	2	8.5
Jacob Conover	15	25	60%	156	2	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Miles Davis (Tr)	65	416	3	6.4	58
Bryson Barnes	81	309	6	3.8	35
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	34	200	2	5.9	58
Noah White	12	54	0	4.5	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	27	453	4	16.8	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	24	356	3	14.8	53
Broc Lane	13	196	2	15.1	52
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	18	147	2	8.2	30

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	53	7	6	4	0
Noah Avinger (Tr)	44	0	0	0	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	41	0	0	0	4
William Holmes	36	6	2	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	53	7	6	4	0
Bronson Olevao	33	4	3	4	1
Chris Joe	17	3	2	1	0
William Holmes	36	6	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	41	0	4
Noah Avinger (Tr)	44	0	3
Bobby Arnold III (Tr)	15	1	1