Nevada at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 8th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Utah State -10 (52.5) (-380) Open: -10.5
Utah State 51 - Nevada: 14 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

NEV coming off BYE
USU coming off BYE
Our Line: Utah State -13.5 (SP+ USU -14)
Projected Score: NEV: 19 - USU: 33 (52)
USU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
NEV Travel: 446 miles, 1 hrs behind

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Nevada at Penn State	+45.5	58.5	L 11 - 46	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Nevada vs Sacramento State	-8.0	56.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Nevada vs Middle Tennessee	-9.0	50.0	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Nevada at Western Kentucky	+8.5	54.5	L 16 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Nevada at Fresno State	+12.5	45.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Nevada vs San Diego State	+6.5	42.5	L 10 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/18	Nevada at New Mexico	+14.0	49.5	L 22 - 24	U	Y
Fri 10/24	Nevada vs Boise State	+20.5	51.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Nevada at Utah State	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/15	Nevada vs San José State	+10.0	49.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Nevada at Wyoming	+6.0	39.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	53.0	L 17 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#129 (.02)	37% (124)	17.6	37% (123)	2.83 (86)	155	36% (118)	147	2.67 (133)	#94 (.19)	44% (93)	27.5	44% (85)	43% (96)	4.15 (112)	45.2	2.3	1.3
USU	#47 (.2)	41% (91)	30.9	42% (89)	2.87 (81)	163	41% (85)	247	4.49 (16)	#112 (.22)	43% (91)	28.7	45% (99)	42% (70)	3.77 (76)	60.2	0.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.6	15.5	36.6%	2.67	2.3	17	302	155	147	4.5	56%	42%	37%	36%	17%	.02
USU Defense	13	28.7	19.5	43.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	13%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	27.5	29.8	43.5%	4.15	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	44%	43%	14%	.19
USU Offense	13	30.9	38.3	40.9%	4.49	0.8	21	410	163	247	4.8	47%	52%	42%	41%	16%	.2

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	30:19	17.3	32%	54%	5.3	45.2	2.3	1.3	5.3	1.6	3	30.4
Utah State	13	27:14	20.6	35%	54%	7.6	60.2	0.8	1.3	4.9	2.2	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	56% (23)	37% (123)	34.6	155.3	4.5	9 (132)	.07 (92)	2.83 (86)	72% (68)	11% (114)	1.04 (36)
USU Defense	13	47% (28)	45% (99)	-	-	-	-	.21 (124)	3.18 (116)	70% (61)	7% (127)	1.04 (105)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	50% (66)	44% (85)	-	-	-	-	.22 (126)	3.08 (104)	72% (78)	9% (93)	1.05 (109)
USU Offense	13	47% (95)	42% (89)	34.2	162.9	4.8	25 (40)	.19 (32)	2.87 (81)	71% (75)	11% (119)	1.16 (9)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	42% (114)	36% (118)	15.2	25.7	147.2	5.7	9.7	10 (121)	17 (134)	-.02 (135)	1.4 (124)	34% (109)	24% (130)	-.05 (136)	6% (86)	1.6 (136)
USU Defense	13	52% (111)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (38)	.24 (62)	1.5 (25)	29% (112)	33% (114)	.37 (107)	6% (57)	1.9 (26)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	48% (71)	43% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (75)	.18 (38)	1.3 (2)	32% (65)	28% (38)	.26 (56)	6% (86)	1.8 (16)
USU Offense	13	52% (45)	41% (85)	18.6	31	246.9	8	13.3	26 (14)	5 (7)	.24 (70)	1.5 (67)	33% (98)	31% (56)	.36 (47)	5% (28)	2.1 (60)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -24.57 #133
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20 #134
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.37 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.1 #118
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #78

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -24.57 Utah State: -6.085

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -14.1 Utah State: -0.3

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -6.085 #123
Utah State's Offense Rating: 6.59 #110
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.46 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #74
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #51
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 33
Nevada 19

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Utah State 27
Nevada 24

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Utah State 32
Nevada 20

Total Points: 52

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Utah State	51	Nevada	14	Utah State -10	Utah State	52.5	Over
2023	11/11	Utah State	41	Nevada	24	Utah State -14.5	Utah State	54.5	Over
2020	11/05	Nevada	34	Utah State	9	Nevada -17	Nevada	57.5	Under
2019	10/19	Utah State	36	Nevada	10	Utah State -21	Utah State	59.0	Under
2016	11/19	Nevada	38	Utah State	37	Utah State -5	Nevada	56.5	Over
2015	11/21	Utah State	31	Nevada	27	Utah State -14	Nevada	54.5	Over
2011	11/26	Utah State	21	Nevada	17
2010	10/30	Nevada	56	Utah State	42
2009	10/17	Utah State	32	Nevada	35
2008	10/18	Nevada	44	Utah State	17
2007	10/20	Utah State	28	Nevada	31
2006	11/11	Nevada	42	Utah State	0
2005	11/19	Utah State	24	Nevada	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	5	3	4 Overs
Nevada	8	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 3	5 - 1	4 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 10	1 - 5	0 - 1	1 - 4

(#133) NEV at (#123) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	USU
Net PPPPPP	#119	#53
Power RatePwr	#133	#123
SP+SP+	#118	#74
Perf GradeGrade	#90	#97
OffenseOff	#111	#87
DefenseDef	#34	#85
Spec TeamsST	#118	#121
TalentTal	#119	#118
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Nevada Notes(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	#114	#37
Perf GradePerf	#111	#85
SuccessSuc	#124	#91
ExplosiveExp	#102	#65
PPAPPA	#129	#112
PowerPwr	#134	#129
SP+SP+	#133	#91
Pts POPPO	#133	#76
HavocHav	#107	#114

Nevada Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#118	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#99
Run ExplRExp	#36	#105
PPAExp	#92	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#108
TackleTak	-	#111

Nevada Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#118	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#124	#25
PPAExp	#135	#62
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#86	#110
F7 HavocF7	#114	#127
DB HavocDB	#86	#57

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	#114	#78
Perf GradePerf	#87	#34
SuccessSuc	#91	#93
ExplosiveExp	#18	#39
PPAPPA	#47	#94
PowerPwr	#110	#130
SP+SP+	#51	#78
Pts POPPO	#16	#112
HavocHav	#87	#100

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#68	#44
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#85
Run ExplRExp	#9	#109
PPAExp	#32	#126
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#110
TackleTak	-	#66

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#2
PPAExp	#70	#38
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#22
F7 HavocF7	#119	#93
DB HavocDB	#28	#86

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 40°

Rematch from Week 11
Utah State -10.0 (52.5)
Utah State won vs Nevada this year (51-14)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Nevada in 2023 (41-24)

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carter Jones	111	173	64%	1001	6	8	5.8
Chubba Purdy	44	86	51%	577	3	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Ramseur	139	683	5	4.9	32
Chubba Purdy	100	530	3	5.3	58
Herschel Turner (Tr)	69	353	0	5.1	64
Ky Woods	19	103	0	5.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jett Carpenter	35	374	2	10.7	44
Dakota Thomas (Tr)	26	268	1	10.3	25
Marcus Bellon	25	242	1	9.7	43
Caleb Ramseur	18	191	3	10.6	41

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	88	17	7	3	0
Stone Combs	72	5	1	1	1
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)	59	5	1	0	2
Nakian Jackson (Tr)	51	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	88	17	7	3	0
Jonathan Maldonado	38	9	5	1	4
Nelson Ropati	22	4	2	0	0
Myles Williams (Tr)	3	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
A.J. Odums	49	1	7
Edward Rhambo (Tr)	34	1	6
Bryson Snelling	14	0	4

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	39	62%	323	4	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	32	2	0	1	5