San Diego State at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo

San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
San Diego State -6.5 (42.5) (-245)  Open: -7.0
San Diego State 44 - Nevada: 10  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 3.6 (#29)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -20.5  (SP+ SDSU -20)

Projected Score: SDSU: 31 - NEV: 11 (42)
SDSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
SDSU Travel: 491 miles
Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+14.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.541.5W 6 - 3UY
Fri 10/3 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-6.542.5W 44 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State-3.046.5W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.042.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.548.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State-1.541.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-10.050.5W 25 - 3UY
Fri 11/28 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.541.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 San Diego State vs North Texas+7.555.5L 47 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.554.5L 16 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+12.545.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+6.542.5L 10 - 44ON
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+14.049.5L 22 - 24UY
Fri 10/24 Nevada vs Boise State+20.551.5L 3 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+10.052.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10.049.5W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.039.5W 13 - 7UY
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+7.553.0L 17 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)26.437% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)15.449% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)17.647% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)27.549% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1226.418.237.4%3.440.8193351292063.747%52%37%38%18%.12
NEV Defense1327.525.246.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1215.418.346.1%4.281 - - - - - 55%44%49%43%12%.23
NEV Offense1317.619.744.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1227:0818.536%53%9.181.80.815.42.6231
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1247% (87)37% (124)35.3128.93.713 (105).1 (84)3 (78)69% (97)12% (114)1.06 (37)
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1255% (117)49% (117) - - - - .21 (113)3.49 (130)80% (109)9% (98)0.94 (47)
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1252% (45)38% (109)19.531.3205.76.610.615 (98)8 (40).15 (107)1.5 (99)36% (125)26% (114).29 (87)6% (61)2 (77)
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1244% (17)43% (98) - - - - - - 7 (104).28 (96)1.6 (75)29% (112)38% (126).52 (126)3% (133)2.1 (79)
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 1.70  #60
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 8.16  #99
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 6.46  #29
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7  #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 1.70   Nevada: -16.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.7   Nevada: -13.4




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -16.485  #134
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20  #135
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.37  #131
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 31
Nevada 11


Projected Total Points: 42
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Nevada10San Diego State44San Diego State -6.5San Diego State42.5Over
202310/21San Diego State0Nevada6San Diego State -11Nevada48.5Under
202210/22Nevada7San Diego State23San Diego State -7.5San Diego State36.0Under
202111/13San Diego State23Nevada21San Diego State -2.5Nevada45.0Under
202011/21Nevada26San Diego State21San Diego State -1.5Nevada46.5Over
201911/09San Diego State13Nevada17San Diego State -17Nevada39.5Under
201810/27Nevada28San Diego State24Nevada -1Nevada45.5Over
201711/18San Diego State42Nevada23San Diego State -17.5San Diego State56.0Over
201611/12Nevada16San Diego State46San Diego State -20.5San Diego State50.5Over
201511/28San Diego State31Nevada14San Diego State -14San Diego State48.5Under
201411/01Nevada30San Diego State14Nevada -6Nevada0
201310/04San Diego State51Nevada44San Diego State -5.5San Diego State0
201210/20Nevada38San Diego State39
200409/25San Diego State27Nevada10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada565 Overs
San Diego State965 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 66 - 65 - 31 - 3
Road Teams6 - 86 - 63 - 13 - 5

(#60) SDSU at (#134) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUNEV
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #60 #134
SP+SP+ #43 #116
Perf GradeGrade #20 #90
OffenseOff #61 #111
DefenseDef #13 #34
Spec TeamsST #58 #118
TalentTal #95 #119
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
San Diego State Notes
(11/28) Great season goes thud w/ meltdown in 20T vs N Mex
(10/28) New DC Aurich leading #2 Def in all CFB. 10.4 ppg
(10/22) Top 3 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/4) Killed CSU, most total yards since '20. 250+ Pass/Run
(9/28) Def great, 3 points in last 2 games. Red Zone D tops
(9/23) CB Chris Johnson a lockdown, #2 Phillips good too
(9/21) Beat the brakes off Cal. Forced 3 TOs, Great win
(9/21) Defense is good, Offense is really bad. QBs bad
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
San Diego State Injury Report
Nevada Notes
(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNEV Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #34
SuccessSuc #120 #117
ExplosiveExp #51 #59
PPAPPA #108 #110
PowerPwr #99 #131
SP+SP+ #90 #81
Pts POPPO #107 #114
HavocHav #99 #95
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #31 #44
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #121
Run ExplRExp #37 #107
PPAExp #84 #130
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #91
Stuff RateStuff #35 #69
TackleTak -  #66
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #114 #49
Pass SuccessPSuc #109 #92
Pass ExplPExl #99 #49
PPAExp #107 #50
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #47 #22
F7 HavocF7 #114 #119
DB HavocDB #61 #47
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffSDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #111 #13
SuccessSuc #46 #113
ExplosiveExp #94 #44
PPAPPA #55 #103
PowerPwr #135 #29
SP+SP+ #133 #28
Pts POPPO #73 #111
HavocHav #78 #131
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #118 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #117
Run ExplRExp #64 #47
PPAExp #51 #113
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #59 #130
Stuff RateStuff #47 #132
TackleTak -  #53
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #134 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #65 #98
Pass ExplPExl #71 #75
PPAExp #57 #96
Pass Block/RushP Blk #86 #49
F7 HavocF7 #81 #98
DB HavocDB #74 #133
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 48° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 7
San Diego State 6.5 (42.5)
San Diego State won at Nevada this year (44-10)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Nevada last year (44-10)
Nevada beat San Diego State in 2023 (6-0)

  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)14324459%1810987.4
Kyle Crum142948%169125.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington (Tr)9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3227328.572
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Donovan Brown33518215.752
Nathan Acevedo (Tr)16190011.942
Jacob Bostick (Tr)11157314.335

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Rob Aurich (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Chambliss909445
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Trey White47117121
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White47117121
Ryan Henderson219741
Niles King2910720
Owen Chambliss909445
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Chris Johnson473127
Eric Butler391036

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
Chubba Purdy448651%577386.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Ramseur13968354.932
Chubba Purdy10053035.358
Herschel Turner (Tr)6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jett Carpenter35374210.744
Dakota Thomas (Tr)26268110.325
Marcus Bellon2524219.743
Caleb Ramseur18191310.641

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Stone Combs725111
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)595102
Nakian Jackson (Tr)510000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jonathan Maldonado389514
Nelson Ropati224200
Thomas Witte253111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Odums491007
Edward Rhambo (Tr)341006
Bryson Snelling140004