San Diego State at Nevada - 2025 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Mackay Stadium - Reno, NV  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (13 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -9   (SP+ SDSU -5.5)

Projected Score: SDSU: 26 - NEV: 17 (42)
SDSU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
SDSU Travel: 491 miles
Wolf Pack (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 15 - 26 (17 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.2 - 8.8 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.553.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+2.046.5L 13 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+12.548.5
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois+1
Sat 10/4 San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.5
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State+2
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-2.5
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i-1
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State+7.5
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State-6
Sat 11/29 San Diego State at New Mexico-7

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.558.5L 11 - 46UY
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.056.0W 20 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.050.0L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+10.554.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+13.5
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+9
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+4.5
Sat 10/25 Nevada vs Boise State+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+7
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+5.5
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+14
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#90 (.14)40% (95)27.549% (44)3.25 (43)15531% (126)1854.36 (49)#28 ()33% (21)1838% (66)28% (14)3.78 (77)51.500
NEV#131 (-.01)42% (79)14.744% (75)2.41 (116)18440% (92)1452.3 (127)#116 (.26)49% (124)25.751% (123)47% (108)4.38 (101)43.72.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense227.51340.4%4.360173341551853.754%45%49%31%13%.14
NEV Defense325.715.549%4.380.7 - - - - - 56%44%51%47%13%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense2183632.8%3.780 - - - - - 46%54%38%28%11%
NEV Offense314.716.542.3%2.32.3173291841454.968%31%44%40%18%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State231:091734%50%6.551.50041.5031.7
Nevada329:1817.331%57%4.743.72.30.76.32.7127.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense254% (47)49% (44)421553.75 (62).18 (54)3.25 (43)80% (36)6% (27)0.79 (113)
NEV Defense356% (110)51% (123) - - - - .28 (124)3.27 (118)78% (100)11% (52)0.87 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense246% (39)38% (66) - - - - .01 (51)2.89 (79)62% (39)6% (121)0.81 (38)
NEV Offense368% (6)44% (75)37.7183.74.91 (127).13 (72)2.41 (116)86% (22)13% (126)1.02 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense245% (90)31% (126)15.529.5184.56.311.92 (102)0 (1).12 (111)2 (9)32% (92)30% (85).25 (88)6% (96)2.1 (51)
NEV Defense344% (30)47% (108) - - - - - - 2 (56).24 (77)1.4 (43)30% (93)26% (44).32 (84)2% (134)1.8 (49)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense254% (100)28% (14) - - - - - - 0-.01 (20)1.2 (12)34% (61)11% (4)-.1 (9)5% (91)1.7 (35)
NEV Offense331% (131)40% (92)12.322.31456.511.82 (102)5 (129)-.21 (135)1 (134)32% (86)29% (89)-.19 (136)4% (45)1.4 (127)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -1.82 #83
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 4.98 #104
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 6.79 #67
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.9 #95
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #121
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -1.82   Nevada: -14.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -8.9   Nevada: -14.3




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -14.405 #128
Nevada's Offense Rating: 2.19 #120
Nevada's Defense Rating: 21.69 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.2 - 8.8
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #120
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #116
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 18 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 26
Nevada 17


Total Points: 42

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 14.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.5
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.5

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/21San Diego State0Nevada6NevadaSan Diego State -11Nevada48.5Under
202210/22Nevada7San Diego State23San Diego StateSan Diego State -7.5San Diego State36.0Under
202111/13San Diego State23Nevada21San Diego StateSan Diego State -2.5Nevada45.0Under
202011/21Nevada26San Diego State21NevadaSan Diego State -1.5Nevada46.5Over
201911/09San Diego State13Nevada17NevadaSan Diego State -17Nevada39.5Under
201810/27Nevada28San Diego State24NevadaNevada -1Nevada45.5Over
201711/18San Diego State42Nevada23San Diego StateSan Diego State -17.5San Diego State56.0Over
201611/12Nevada16San Diego State46San Diego StateSan Diego State -20.5San Diego State50.5Over
201511/28San Diego State31Nevada14San Diego StateSan Diego State -14San Diego State48.5Under
201411/01Nevada30San Diego State14NevadaNevada -6Nevada0
201310/04San Diego State51Nevada44San Diego StateSan Diego State -5.5San Diego State0
201210/20Nevada38San Diego State39San Diego State
200409/25San Diego State27Nevada10San Diego State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada564 Overs
San Diego State855 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 56 - 55 - 31 - 2
Road Teams5 - 85 - 62 - 13 - 5

(#83) San Diego State Info
Power Rating: -1.82 #83
Offense Rating: 4.98 #104
Defense Rating: 6.79 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.9 #95
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #121
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.36 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Great Pass Def Success 28%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

San Diego State has lost 4 straight
San Diego State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

San Diego State Notes
(8/1) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, dont love OT on paper
(8/1) Def bad LY, 10 starters back, new DC Aurich
(8/1) Lewis also the OC, offense awful LY, team quit
(8/1) Fast offense, large totals. QB Emanuel key ?
(7/12) WR Kitt-Denton (FCS) avg'd 18.1 ypc at NW St
(5/23) New DC Aurich (DC @ Idaho) an improvement
(5/23) Portals look decent, losses mostly went down
(5/2) RB light, Washington (CCU) decent add.
(5/2) WR Napier back, v good. Some depth
(3/29) QB Dengal (Mich) vs Emanuel Jr (CMU)

San Diego State Highlights
San Diego State has a really good defense (#21)
San Diego State defense does not give up big plays (#10)
San Diego State has a good pass defense (#14)
San Diego State has a great TO Margin (#1)
San Diego State commits very few Penalties (#30)
San Diego State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

San Diego State Deficiencies
San Diego State Can Not Run the Ball (#121)
San Diego State pass game is really bad (#126)
San Diego State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
San Diego State does not Sack the QB (#112)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNEVSDSU
OverallOver#69#39
OffenseOff#87#61
DefenseDef#51#26
Special TeamsST#99#62
PassingPass#97#60
RushingRush#79#52
Run BlockRBLK#34#46
Pass BlockPBLK#85#90
Route RunningWR Rt#99#56
TacklingTkl#75#40
Run DefenseR Def#64#27
Pass Rush DefPRush#12#42
Coverage DefCov#73#40

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat San Diego State in 2023 (6-0)
San Diego State beat Nevada in 2022 (23-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SDSU | NEV
Depth Chart: SDSU | NEV
Rosters: SDSU | NEV
(#128) Nevada Info
Power Rating: -14.405 #128
Offense Rating: 2.19 #120
Defense Rating: 21.69 #126
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #120
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108
Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 3.2 - 8.8

Team Profile
Option Offense 68%, Pass: 31%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Nevada has lost 3 straight
Nevada has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Nevada Notes
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
(4/9) Choate got year 0. New OC, pass game better TY
(3/29) QB Purdy vs Blanco, not much playing exp

Nevada Highlights

Nevada Deficiencies
Nevada has a really bad Offense
Nevada has a really bad Offense at Home
Nevada has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Nevada throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Nevada offense is not Explosive (#126)
Nevada Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#121)
Nevada offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#127)
Nevada offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Nevada has a bad defense (#124)
Nevada Does Not Stuff Runs (#128)
Nevada has a bad defensive line (#118)
Nevada has a bad red zone defense (#101)


  
San Diego State's OC Sean Lewis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal (Tr)285551%340206.2
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)3475%29007.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton3818824.920
Christian Washington (Tr)104914.927
Byron Cardwell72804.014
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)62604.310
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob Bostick (Tr)6101216.835
Jordan Napier108708.723
Mikey Welsh144044.044
Donovan Brown54308.644

View San Diego State's Full Roster
San Diego State's DC Rob Aurich
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli190020
Owen Chambliss152111
Chris Johnson90022
Bryce Phillips80000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
August Salvati (Tr)32200
Owen Chambliss152111
Jared Badie11110
Tano Letuli190020
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley61003
Chris Johnson90022
Owen Chambliss152111

Nevada's OC David Gilbertson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy244356%329147.7
AJ Bianco132357%106114.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chubba Purdy4421614.930
Herschel Turner (Tr)3115304.964
Caleb Ramseur239304.026
Ky Woods450012.528
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcus Bellon11153113.943
Jordan Brown (Tr)11145013.228
Ky Woods147147.047
Jett Carpenter64106.812

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stone Combs213100
Dylan Labarbera216200
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)160000
Austin Harnetiaux140001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera216200
Jonathan Maldonado123200
Sam Cook (Tr)74100
Nelson Ropati51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)90003
Bishop Turner30001
Austin Harnetiaux140001