San Diego State at Nevada Game Matchup
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Mackay Stadium - Reno, NV  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (20 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 6.7 (#85)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -2.5   (SP+ SDSU -6)

Projected Score: SDSU: 28 - NEV: 25 (51)
SDSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
SDSU Travel: 491 miles
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#120)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 San Diego State vs Stony Brook-11
Sat 9/6 San Diego State at Washington State+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San Diego State vs California+7.5
Sat 9/27 San Diego State at Northern Illinois+4
Sat 10/4 San Diego State vs Colorado State+0
Sat 10/11 San Diego State at Nevada-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 San Diego State at Fresno State+8.5
Sat 11/1 San Diego State vs Wyoming-3.5
Sat 11/8 San Diego State at Hawai'i+3.5
Sat 11/15 San Diego State vs Boise State+19.5
Sat 11/22 San Diego State vs San José State+5
Sat 11/29 San Diego State at New Mexico-1.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Nevada at Penn State+45.50.0
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-6
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-2.5
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+13.5
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+2.5
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+3.5
Sat 10/25 Nevada vs Boise State+24.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+4
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.5
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)21.337% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)29.649% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)23.147% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)28.849% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1221.320.337.4%3.440.8193351292063.747%52%37%38%18%.12
NEV Defense1328.826.646.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1229.635.846.1%4.281 - - - - - 55%44%49%43%12%.23
NEV Offense1323.127.644.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1227:0818.536%53%9.181.80.815.42.6231
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1247% (87)37% (124)35.3128.93.713 (105).1 (84)3 (78)69% (97)12% (114)1.06 (37)
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1255% (117)49% (117) - - - - .21 (113)3.49 (130)80% (109)9% (98)0.94 (47)
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1252% (45)38% (109)19.531.3205.76.610.615 (98)8 (40).15 (107)1.5 (99)36% (125)26% (114).29 (87)6% (61)2 (77)
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1244% (17)43% (98) - - - - - - 7 (104).28 (96)1.6 (75)29% (112)38% (126).52 (126)3% (133)2.1 (79)
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -14.44 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 4.38 #123
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 18.82 #95
2025 Talent Rating: 600.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
San Diego State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7
San Diego State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.1 #102
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #125
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 506.67
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -14.44   Nevada: -14.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -10.1   Nevada: -16.3




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -14.845 #117
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.33 #110
Nevada's Defense Rating: 25.72 #121
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #124
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #119

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 506.67
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

San Diego State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 28
Nevada 25


Projected Total Points: 51
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.6

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/21San Diego State0Nevada6NevadaSan Diego State -11Nevada48.5Under
202210/22Nevada7San Diego State23San Diego StateSan Diego State -7.5San Diego State36.0Under
202111/13San Diego State23Nevada21San Diego StateSan Diego State -2.5Nevada45.0Under
202011/21Nevada26San Diego State21NevadaSan Diego State -1.5Nevada46.5Over
201911/09San Diego State13Nevada17NevadaSan Diego State -17Nevada39.5Under
201810/27Nevada28San Diego State24NevadaNevada -1Nevada45.5Over
201711/18San Diego State42Nevada23San Diego StateSan Diego State -17.5San Diego State56.0Over
201611/12Nevada16San Diego State46San Diego StateSan Diego State -20.5San Diego State50.5Over
201511/28San Diego State31Nevada14San Diego StateSan Diego State -14San Diego State48.5Under
201411/01Nevada30San Diego State14NevadaNevada -6Nevada0
201310/04San Diego State51Nevada44San Diego StateSan Diego State -5.5San Diego State0
201210/20Nevada38San Diego State39San Diego State
200409/25San Diego State27Nevada10San Diego State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada564 Overs
San Diego State855 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 56 - 55 - 31 - 2
Road Teams5 - 85 - 62 - 13 - 5

(#104) San Diego State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -14.44 #104
Offense Rating: 4.38 #123
Defense Rating: 18.82 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.1 #102
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #125
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #65
Talent Rating: 600.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


San Diego State Notes
(5/23) New DC Aurich (DC @ Idaho) an improvement
(5/23) Portals look decent, losses mostly went down
(5/2) RB light, Washington (CCU) decent add.
(5/2) WR Napier back, v good. Some depth
(5/2) OL 3/5 back, 2 portals. OK last year, could flash
(5/2) Def bad LY, not much portal help, new DC Aurich
(3/29) QB Dengal (Mich) vs Emanuel Jr (CMU)
San Diego State     Ratings Matchup     Nevada
Power #104
#117
Off #123
#110
Def #95
#121
Talent #83
#113
SP+ #102
#124
SP+ Off #125
#114
SP+ Def #65
#119

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat San Diego State in 2023 (6-0)
San Diego State beat Nevada in 2022 (23-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SDSU | NEV
Depth Chart: SDSU | NEV
Rosters: SDSU | NEV
(#117) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -14.845 #117
Offense Rating: 7.33 #110
Defense Rating: 25.72 #121
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #124
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #119
Talent Rating: 476.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Nevada Notes
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
(4/9) Def ugly LY, return nothing. 10 portals. Yikes
(4/9) Choate got year 0. New OC, pass game better TY
(3/29) QB Purdy vs Blanco, not much playing exp


  
San Diego State's OC Sean Lewis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)4667%992016.5
Jordan Napier1250%271013.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Christian Washington (Tr)10253755.368
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tr)2812834.620
Lucky Sutton53507.017
Trey White1404.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier43440410.253
Christian Washington (Tr)43609.024
Jacob Bostick (Tr)114014.014
Owen Chambliss110010.010

View San Diego State's Full Roster
San Diego State's DC Rob Aurich
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli674220
Chris Johnson590013
Trey White56191351
Dalesean Staley550000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White56191351
Malachi Finau (Tr)194310
Ryan Henderson123320
Krishna Clay424210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshawn McCuin262115
Jelani Whitmore100003
Eric Butler443003

Nevada's OC David Gilbertson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy182572%239119.6
AJ Bianco162467%173107.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner (Tr)7940545.143
Caleb Ramseur3211003.433
Chubba Purdy136004.619
Marcus Bellon93704.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Jordan Brown (Tr)11140012.742
Nick Rempert (Tr)11127111.540
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stone Combs583100
Austin Harnetiaux442010
Thomas Witte342010
Dylan Labarbera312000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Stone Combs583100
Jason Douglas Jr.11100
DJ Warnell41101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)221002
Charles Brown20001
Kaden Johnson171011