Florida State at Virginia Game Matchup
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at Virginia CavaliersVirginia logo
Friday, September 26th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Scott Stadium - Charlottesville, VA  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
UVA 3rd straight Home Game
UVA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -5.5   (SP+ FSU -11.5)
Projected Score: FSU: 26 - UVA: 21 (47)
FSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
FSU Travel: 620 miles
Cavaliers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#70)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Florida State vs Alabama+11.550.5
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-31
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-36.5
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-5.5
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+10
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-5.5
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-11
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-17
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+20.5
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-4.5
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State+1
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+14.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.50.0
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+8.5
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-23
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-8
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+5.5
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+15
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-12.5
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina+4.5
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California+0.5
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-9
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke+8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech+3.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)15.440% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2842% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)22.743% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)28.844% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense1215.412.335.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06
UVA Defense1228.825.342.6%4.041.3 - - - - - 49%50%44%42%15%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122838.340.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
UVA Offense1222.718.740%3.471.6193621332293.748%52%43%37%18%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Virginia1229:5319.334%52%5.245.31.61.34.81.8029.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)
UVA Defense1249% (53)44% (77) - - - - .17 (91)3.29 (112)77% (89)9% (104)0.99 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
UVA Offense1248% (84)43% (77)35.9132.83.714 (98).16 (50)3.29 (25)73% (77)11% (96)0.91 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)
UVA Defense1250% (83)42% (77) - - - - - - 9 (76).37 (121)1.6 (84)32% (67)32% (84).43 (110)6% (67)2.1 (82)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
UVA Offense1252% (52)37% (113)20.533.42296.911.216 (87)14 (115).11 (122)1.5 (86)33% (101)26% (115).17 (120)7% (100)1.7 (129)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 8.01 #44
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.69 #58
Florida State's Defense Rating: 7.68 #28
2025 Talent Rating: 922.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #16
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #36
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 8.01   Virginia: 2.19

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.2   Virginia: -4.3




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 2.19 #58
Virginia's Offense Rating: 16.34 #51
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.66 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 856.00 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.3 #79
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #70

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 26
Virginia 21

Projected Total Points: 47
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201909/14Virginia31Florida State24VirginiaVirginia -7Push54.5Over
201411/08Florida State34Virginia20Florida StateFlorida State -21.5Virginia0
201111/19Florida State13Virginia14Virginia
201010/02Virginia14Florida State34Florida State
200611/04Florida State33Virginia0Florida State
200510/15Virginia26Florida State21Virginia
200410/16Florida State36Virginia3Florida State
200310/18Virginia14Florida State19Florida State
200208/31Florida State40Virginia19Florida State
200110/20Virginia7Florida State43Florida State
200010/20Florida State37Virginia3Florida State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia311 Overs
Florida State800 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 40 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams4 - 71 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#44) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.01 #44
Offense Rating: 15.69 #58
Defense Rating: 7.68 #28
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #28
Talent Rating: 922.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #16
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.88 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Florida State Notes
(5/31) Watch Fr RB O. Kromah, RBs aren't great above
(5/31) Def depth key, lack stars, DT Jackson has tools
(5/31) OL 4/5 starters & 80% overall exp via 6 portals
(5/31) WRs Robinson(USC) big add, depth a huge ?
(5/21) Off could start 8 portals. New OC. Total wildcard
(5/21) Def looks OK, portal DEs, CB is a ?, New DC
(5/21) Norvell 3 of 5 yrs sub .500. Crootin meh
(3/22) Portal class includes 7 P4 starters from LY
(3/19) QB Castellanos (BC), new OC Malzahn
(3/19) Def OK LY considering, need much more TY
Florida State     Ratings Matchup     Virginia
Power #44
#58
Off #58
#51
Def #28
#58
Talent #17
#29
SP+ #36
#79
SP+ Off #58
#90
SP+ Def #28
#70

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FSU | UVA
Depth Chart: FSU | UVA
Rosters: FSU | UVA
(#58) Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.19 #58
Offense Rating: 16.34 #51
Defense Rating: 12.66 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.3 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #70
Talent Rating: 856.00 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.04 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Virginia Notes
(5/29) Off could jump w/ better OL, good RB, QB + WR
(5/29) OL has top 20 exp but 57% via portals.
(5/29) WR rebuild, top 3 are portals, better depth TY
(5/29) OL 4/5 back, took 7 portals. Lots of depth.
(5/29) Def pretty bad LY. Took 16 portals, 9 DBs
(5/21) Talent #'s impressive, 5th in ACC, big jump.
(5/17) Lowest SOS in P4 should lead to bowl
(4/30) RBs Brown can play, Taylor (NC Cen) good add
(3/19) Both OC/DC hires lack inspiration
(3/19) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it


  
Florida State's OC Gus Malzahn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)9916162%13661858.5
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)9319412.118
Kam Davis5217303.316
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)3912813.321
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randy Pittman (Tr)32416213.048
Duce Robinson (Tr)23396517.248
Squirrel White (Tr)34381211.245
Landen Thomas14173112.435

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Tony White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Deante McCray (Tr)553220
K.J. Kirkland451002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deamontae Diggs (Tr)347562
James Williams (Tr)146540
Darrell Jackson284441
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)244004
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Omar Graham Jr.374113

Virginia's OC Des Kitchings
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)32250963%377431127.4
Suderian Harrison11100%270027.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Brown8048816.175
Isaiah Augustave8538444.537
Harrison Waylee (Tr)6332315.136
Chandler Morris (Tr)6024244.049
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Ross37443312.043
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)23365215.953
Trell Harris15221214.745
Jayden Thomas (Tr)1816729.323

View Virginia's Full Roster
Virginia's DC John Rudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Da'Marcus Crosby (Tr)812003
Kamren Robinson646521
Trey McDonald573111
Jermarian Jackson551106
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fisher Camac (Tr)4615815
Kamren Robinson646521
Mitchell Melton (Tr)124210
James Jackson455220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermarian Jackson551106
Fisher Camac (Tr)4615815
Emmanuel Karnley (Tr)140005