Florida State at Virginia - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo (#8)Florida State Seminoles at Virginia CavaliersVirginia logo
Friday, September 26th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Florida State -7 (59.5) (-270)  Open: -7.5
Virginia 46 - Florida State: 38  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
UVA 3rd straight Home Game
UVA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Virginia -9.5  (SP+ UVA -5)

Projected Score: FSU: 22 - UVA: 32 (54)
FSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 620 miles
Cavaliers (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-44.556.5W 66 - 10OY
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-7.059.5L 38 - 46ON
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.554.5L 22 - 28UN
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-10.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-17.555.5L 13 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-12.550.5W 42 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+1.556.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-13.553.5W 34 - 14UY
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-7.058.5L 11 - 21UN
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida-1.548.5L 21 - 40ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.557.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+3.053.0L 31 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.554.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-16.548.5W 48 - 20OY
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+7.059.5W 46 - 38OY
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+6.559.5W 30 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-16.556.5W 22 - 20UN
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina-12.551.5W 17 - 16UN
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California-6.552.5W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-7.048.5L 9 - 16UN
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke+5.559.5W 34 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-9.553.5W 27 - 7UY
Sat 12/6 Virginia vs Duke-3.558.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 12/27 Virginia vs Missouri+4.043.5W 13 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#21 (.27)46% (31)3350% (12)3.4 (8)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#69 (.16)42% (76)2242% (65)43% (80)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
UVA#64 (.18)42% (82)30.844% (66)3.04 (51)17241% (79)2253.49 (91)#18 (.06)37% (21)19.639% (30)37% (25)3.01 (19)420.91.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense123318.645.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27
UVA Defense1419.617.737.4%3.011.4 - - - - - 51%47%39%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122230.242.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
UVA Offense1430.836.441.6%3.490.9203971722254.850%49%44%41%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Virginia1429:3120.349%46%5420.91.44.62.1330.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1255% (33)50% (12)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (14)3.4 (8)75% (49)9% (59)1.03 (44)
UVA Defense1451% (78)39% (30) - - - - .04 (31)2.75 (43)71% (69)9% (75)0.92 (47)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (65) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (30)0.86 (19)
UVA Offense1450% (65)44% (66)36172.14.828 (11).19 (34)3.04 (51)81% (13)8% (25)1.06 (33)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (70)38% (11).5 (12)6% (50)2.1 (30)
UVA Defense1447% (50)37% (25) - - - - - - 13 (38).15 (29)1.5 (44)32% (60)23% (3).11 (8)9% (6)1.9 (25)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (80) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (59)30% (102)30% (78).34 (92)5% (122)2 (71)
UVA Offense1449% (73)41% (79)20.732.42256.910.918 (50)10 (60).24 (74)1.5 (74)32% (84)33% (34).36 (47)6% (68)1.9 (111)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 8.52  #47
Florida State's Offense Rating: 16.89  #31
Florida State's Defense Rating: 8.37  #71
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45%  #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #43
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 8.52   Virginia: 17.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.4   Virginia: 12.1




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 17.305  #25
Virginia's Offense Rating: 16.28  #32
Virginia's Defense Rating: -1.23  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1  #28
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1  #49
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #23

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 32
Florida State 22


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 26
Florida State 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Virginia 30
Florida State 22

Total Points: 52
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/26Virginia46Florida State38Florida State -7Virginia59.5Over
201909/14Virginia31Florida State24Virginia -7Push54.5Over
201411/08Florida State34Virginia20Florida State -21.5Virginia0
201111/19Florida State13Virginia14
201010/02Virginia14Florida State34
200611/04Florida State33Virginia0
200510/15Virginia26Florida State21
200410/16Florida State36Virginia3
200310/18Virginia14Florida State19
200208/31Florida State40Virginia19
200110/20Virginia7Florida State43
200010/20Florida State37Virginia3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia422 Overs
Florida State800 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 41 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 81 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#47) FSU at (#25) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUUVA
Power RatePwr #47 #25
SP+SP+ #43 #28
Perf GradeGrade #30 #16
OffenseOff #20 #46
DefenseDef #68 #15
Spec TeamsST #46 #33
TalentTal #17 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #65
Florida State Notes
(12/16) FSU looks like they aren't serious about 2026
(11/23) Norvell will return in '26. Fund road slate now
(11/22) A straight 0-8 in road ACC games past 2 years
(10/20) Rumors sound toxic, player leadership void
(10/19) Norvell lost 4 straight, 4 times now. 1-11 ACC run
(10/19) OG'd Stanford by 150, still lost for the 4th straight time
(10/19) Castellanos knocked out of Stanford game, dirty hit
(10/12) Norvell w/o Jordan Travis is 7-21.
(10/11) LBs lack speed and huge liability in coverage
(10/11) Noles have lost their last 8 ACC conference games
(9/26) Tackling a huge issue vs UVA, allowed 450+ in L
(8/30) Outrushed Bama 230-87, Cast quick, efficient
Florida State Injury Report
Virginia Notes
(11/26) Star LB Kam Robinson out for season (ACL)
(11/16) Killed Duke, Hoos incredible story. ACC threat
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/25) Box score L vs NC. Great story, but badly overrated
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
Virginia Injury Report
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffUVA Def
Perf GradePerf #20 #15
SuccessSuc #31 #21
ExplosiveExp #21 #35
PPAPPA #21 #18
PowerPwr #31 #27
SP+SP+ #54 #23
Pts POPPO #46 #19
HavocHav #55 #23
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #21 #39
Run SuccessRSuc #12 #30
Run ExplRExp #44 #47
PPAExp #14 #31
Run BlockR Blk #40 -
OL YdsOLY #8 #43
Stuff RateStuff #4 #70
TackleTak -  #39
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #11 #18
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #25
Pass ExplPExl #5 #44
PPAExp #46 #29
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #17 #32
F7 HavocF7 #59 #75
DB HavocDB #50 #6
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffFSU Def
Perf GradePerf #46 #68
SuccessSuc #82 #76
ExplosiveExp #45 #15
PPAPPA #64 #69
PowerPwr #32 #71
SP+SP+ #49 #38
Pts POPPO #91 #110
HavocHav #38 #72
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #58 #32
Run SuccessRSuc #66 #65
Run ExplRExp #33 #19
PPAExp #34 #74
Run BlockR Blk #44 -
OL YdsOLY #51 #106
Stuff RateStuff #35 #120
TackleTak -  #68
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #42 #103
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #80
Pass ExplPExl #74 #59
PPAExp #74 #69
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78 #91
F7 HavocF7 #25 #30
DB HavocDB #68 #122
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 72°
Rematch from Week 5
Florida State 7.0 (59.5)
Virginia won vs Florida State this year (46-38)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)18030958%27601598.9
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)13755794.126
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)10948684.540
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Lawayne McCoy27403314.934
Randy Pittman (Tr)2320829.035

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II762002
Ashlynd Barker485412
Darrell Jackson442110
Justin Cryer435130
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Ashlynd Barker485412
Stefon Thompson (Tr)374410
Daniel Lyons264240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edwin Joseph374005
Earl Little II762002
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)421002

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)28243665%30001696.9
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)305258%339116.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)2221062144.878
Harrison Waylee (Tr)11855664.797
Chandler Morris (Tr)6424553.842
Xavier Brown5124114.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trell Harris59847514.475
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)46564112.337
Cameron Ross53543210.246
J'mari Taylor (Tr)4325315.925

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
James Jackson663053
Kamren Robinson644221
Maddox Marcellus (Tr)493211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)369791
Mitchell Melton (Tr)4510573
Fisher Camac (Tr)446424
Jacob Holmes (Tr)336340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Karnley (Tr)262008
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
Christian Charles (Tr)431026