Pittsburgh at Florida State Game Matchup
Pittsburgh logo Pittsburgh Panthers at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL  (ACC)

 
Panthers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 33 - 28 (24 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#73)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
FSU 2nd straight Home Game
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -5.5   (SP+ FSU -4)
Projected Score: PITT: 23 - FSU: 28 (53)
FSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
PITT Travel: 732 miles
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
 
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-28
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+5
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-4.5
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+5.5
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse+3.5
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-1
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+18.5
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+5
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Florida State vs Alabama+11.550.5
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-31
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-36.5
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-5.5
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+10
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-5.5
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-11
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-17
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+20.5
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-4.5
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State+1
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+14.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)32.945% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)28.438% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)15.440% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2842% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Offense1332.923.841.6%4.111.3213751192564.342%58%45%39%21%.15
FSU Defense122822.740.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Defense1328.43438.1%3.681.2 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.12
FSU Offense1215.416.435.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Pittsburgh1324:0120.738%52%6.458.21.31.27.63627.3
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Offense1342% (116)45% (56)27.3118.64.314 (98).18 (42)3.1 (53)77% (40)12% (119)1.05 (41)
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Defense1345% (13)38% (20) - - - - - (13)2.36 (2)48% (1)12% (25)0.98 (67)
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Offense1358% (18)39% (97)21.835.9256.27.111.727 (20)13 (103).13 (112)1.6 (55)32% (85)35% (30).36 (60)8% (126)2.1 (40)
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Defense1355% (122)38% (38) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (70)1.8 (123)37% (3)31% (82).33 (82)6% (50)2.2 (113)
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 5.85 #51
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 17.28 #47
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 11.43 #47
2025 Talent Rating: 752.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.4 #47
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #45
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #55

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 5.85   Florida State: 10.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 3.4   Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.105 #44
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.69 #58
Florida State's Defense Rating: 7.68 #28
2025 Talent Rating: 922.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #16
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #36
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 28
Pittsburgh 23

Projected Total Points: 53
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Pittsburgh7Florida State24Florida StateFlorida State -21.5Pittsburgh50.0Under
202011/07Florida State17Pittsburgh41PittsburghPittsburgh -2Pittsburgh52.5Over
201309/02Pittsburgh13Florida State41Florida StateFlorida State -10.5Florida State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State211 Overs
Pittsburgh121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 31 - 20 - 01 - 2
Road Teams3 - 02 - 12 - 10 - 0

(#51) Pittsburgh Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.85 #51
Offense Rating: 17.28 #47
Defense Rating: 11.43 #47
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.4 #47
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #45
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #55
Talent Rating: 752.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.11 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Poor OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Pittsburgh Notes
(4/4) LB K. Louis/R. Biles both top 10 LBs via PFF
(3/21) QB Holstein back, was OK LY. Same OC
(3/21) RB Reid one of ACC best. Need more here
(3/21) WR rebuild. Took 3 portals. Have some options
(3/21) OL 3/5 back, not good LY. 2 portal adds
(3/21) Def avg LY, 5 portals, 4 on DL. Light on DBs
(3/21) OC Bell was an upgrade LY.
(3/21) Don't know what Pitt wants to be in NIL era
Pittsburgh     Ratings Matchup     Florida State
Power #51
#44
Off #47
#58
Def #47
#28
Talent #58
#17
SP+ #47
#36
SP+ Off #45
#58
SP+ Def #55
#28

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (24-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PITT | FSU
Depth Chart: PITT | FSU
Rosters: PITT | FSU
(#44) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.105 #44
Offense Rating: 15.69 #58
Defense Rating: 7.68 #28
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #28
Talent Rating: 922.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #16
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.88 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Florida State Notes
(5/31) Watch Fr RB O. Kromah, RBs aren't great above
(5/31) Def depth key, lack stars, DT Jackson has tools
(5/31) OL 4/5 starters & 80% overall exp via 6 portals
(5/31) WRs Robinson(USC) big add, depth a huge ?
(5/21) Off could start 8 portals. New OC. Total wildcard
(5/21) Def looks OK, portal DEs, CB is a ?, New DC
(5/21) Norvell 3 of 5 yrs sub .500. Crootin meh
(3/22) Portal class includes 7 P4 starters from LY
(3/19) QB Castellanos (BC), new OC Malzahn
(3/19) Def OK LY considering, need much more TY


  
Pittsburgh's OC Kade Bell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cole Gonzales (Tr)19631263%24711257.9
Eli Holstein17929062%22251777.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid18496655.372
Eli Holstein8132834.049
Cole Gonzales (Tr)5919423.350
Che Nwabuko676112.757
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid52579411.172
Kenny Johnson46537311.746
Raphael Williams36419611.635
Censere Lee19254313.482

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster
Pittsburgh's DC Randy Bates
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis10016793
Rasheem Biles8014439
Braylan Lovelace5311411
Javon Mcintyre514013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis10016793
Jimmy Scott3013662
Braylan Lovelace5311411
Rasheem Biles8014439
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles8014439
Tamon Lynum372106
Kyle Louis10016793

Florida State's OC Gus Malzahn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)9916162%13661858.5
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)9319412.118
Kam Davis5217303.316
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)3912813.321
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randy Pittman (Tr)32416213.048
Duce Robinson (Tr)23396517.248
Squirrel White (Tr)34381211.245
Landen Thomas14173112.435

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Tony White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Deante McCray (Tr)553220
K.J. Kirkland451002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deamontae Diggs (Tr)347562
James Williams (Tr)146540
Darrell Jackson284441
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)244004
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Omar Graham Jr.374113