Pittsburgh at Florida State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Pittsburgh logo Pittsburgh Panthers at Florida State Seminoles(#7)Florida State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL  (ACC)

 
Panthers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 43 - 19 (24 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.2 - 5.8 (#78)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
FSU 2nd straight Home Game
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -11.5   (SP+ FSU -1)

Projected Score: PITT: 25 - FSU: 37 (62)
FSU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
PITT Travel: 732 miles
Seminoles (2 - 0) (2 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 54 - 10 (54 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 2.3 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.5
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-5.5
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+11.5
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-2
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-4.5
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+5.5
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+4.5
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+13

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-45.555.5
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-8.5
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.5
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-11.5
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-18.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-20
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson-1.5
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-27
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-8.5
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+0.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#39 (.31)46% (48)43.348% (47)2.54 (106)11246% (51)3153.83 (78)#59 (.11)30% (13)1929% (12)31% (23)4.46 (105)7211
FSU#8 (.5)43% (76)5445% (63)3.22 (45)29636% (109)2605.5 (13)#31 (.01)37% (50)1037% (51)37% (46)2.5 (34)37.511
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Offense343.32446.5%3.831194271123153.943%57%48%46%18%.31
FSU Defense2101036.6%2.51 - - - - - 44%56%37%37%22%.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Defense3193130.2%4.461 - - - - - 53%47%29%31%21%.11
FSU Offense2545442.6%5.51255562962605.973%27%45%36%10%.5

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Pittsburgh325:3719.338%50%7.772119.73.7137.7
Florida State231:1024.558%100%3.537.51183032.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Offense343% (112)48% (47)28.7112.33.95 (62).15 (62)2.54 (106)77% (45)10% (83)1 (57)
FSU Defense244% (31)37% (51) - - - - -.01 (45)2.96 (87)43% (10)15% (17)0.78 (31)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Defense353% (99)29% (12) - - - - -.04 (35)2.05 (13)77% (98)16% (8)1.07 (93)
FSU Offense273% (4)45% (63)50295.55.99 (17).36 (19)3.22 (45)64% (99)9% (73)1.43 (9)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Offense357% (28)46% (51)2335.33158.913.710 (7)3 (92).48 (29)1.7 (29)28% (45)36% (37).55 (30)8% (122)2.1 (53)
FSU Defense256% (111)37% (46) - - - - - - 2 (56).04 (26)1.6 (95)33% (62)23% (35).12 (35)7% (34)2.6 (128)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Defense347% (40)31% (23) - - - - - - 2 (56).28 (94)1.7 (109)39% (13)16% (15).13 (38)5% (91)2.2 (98)
FSU Offense227% (133)36% (109)12.51726015.320.86 (34)0 (1).85 (3)3.4 (1)28% (43)35% (51).72 (15)1% (2)2.8 (3)

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 11.23 #51
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 15.01 #53
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 3.78 #49
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #37
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #33
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 11.23   Florida State: 22.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 10.0   Florida State: 11.3




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 22.225 #15
Florida State's Offense Rating: 23.39 #25
Florida State's Defense Rating: -4.76 #9
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45 #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3 #32
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #52
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #22

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 43.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 37
Pittsburgh 25


Total Points: 62

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 54 PPG
Offense at Home: 54
Defense: 10 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Pittsburgh7Florida State24Florida StateFlorida State -21.5Pittsburgh50.0Under
202011/07Florida State17Pittsburgh41PittsburghPittsburgh -2Pittsburgh52.5Over
201309/02Pittsburgh13Florida State41Florida StateFlorida State -10.5Florida State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State211 Overs
Pittsburgh121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 31 - 20 - 01 - 2
Road Teams3 - 02 - 12 - 10 - 0

(#51) Pittsburgh Info
Power Rating: 11.23 #51
Offense Rating: 15.01 #53
Defense Rating: 3.78 #49
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #37
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #33
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Avg Run Success 48%
Avg Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 30%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Great Run Def Success 29%
Good Pass Def Success 31%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight
Pittsburgh has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Pittsburgh Notes
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
(6/14) RB Reid one of ACC best. Must find depth
(6/14) OC Bell an upgrade LY, DC Bates improved D.
(4/4) LB K. Louis/R. Biles both top 10 LBs via PFF
(3/21) QB Holstein back, was OK LY. Same OC
(3/21) Don't know what Pitt wants to be in NIL era

Pittsburgh Highlights
Pittsburgh offense is explosive (#25)
Pittsburgh Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Pittsburgh has a really good defense (#13)
Pittsburgh has a good run defense (#12)
Pittsburgh has a good pass defense (#23)
Pittsburgh Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#14)
Pittsburgh Defensive Line is very good (#13)
Pittsburgh Front 7 is disruptive (#8)

Pittsburgh Deficiencies
Pittsburgh Can Not Run the Ball (#114)
Pittsburgh Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Pittsburgh has a bad red zone defense (#105)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFSUPITT
OverallOver#45#11
OffenseOff#35#56
DefenseDef#64#3
Special TeamsST#82#16
PassingPass#26#87
RushingRush#18#36
Run BlockRBLK#94#40
Pass BlockPBLK#6#37
Route RunningWR Rt#42#51
TacklingTkl#100#9
Run DefenseR Def#15#4
Pass Rush DefPRush#81#3
Coverage DefCov#91#28

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (24-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PITT | FSU
Depth Chart: PITT | FSU
Rosters: PITT | FSU
(#15) Florida State Info
Power Rating: 22.225 #15
Offense Rating: 23.39 #25
Defense Rating: -4.76 #9
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3 #32
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #52
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #22
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45 #17
Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3

Team Profile
Option Offense 73%, Pass: 27%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.5 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 36%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 37%
Good in Scoring Position 2.5 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Florida State has lost 3 straight
Florida State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida State Notes
(8/30) Def great vs Bama, held 6-17 3rd, 2-5 4th downs
(8/16) S. Hussey kicked off team after fight w/ coach
(7/18) Entire staff/roster to raise floor, save jobs
(7/13) Watch Fr RB Kromah, RBs talent but ? prod
(7/13) OC Malzahn interesting, DC White good (3-3-5)
(6/19) Spring was a wash on Off w/ so many injuries
(5/31) 8 win ceiling, lower & fan interest could plummet
(5/31) Def depth key, lack stars, DT Jackson has tools
(5/31) OL 4/5 starters & 80% overall exp via 6 portals
(5/31) WRs Robinson(USC) big add, depth a huge ?

Florida State Highlights
Florida State is Undefeated vs Spread
Florida State in Undefeated
Florida State is Undefeated at Home
Florida State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Florida State is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Florida State offense is explosive (#1)
Florida State offense is good in red zone (#13)
Florida State offense is good on 3rd downs
Florida State Front 7 is disruptive (#17)
Florida State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Florida State commits very few Penalties (#1)

Florida State Deficiencies
Florida State pass game is really bad (#109)


  
Pittsburgh's OC Kade Bell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Eli Holstein588866%822939.3
Cole Gonzales (Tr)81650%87105.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid2414215.953
Juelz Goff218424.017
Eli Holstein255012.031
Ja'Kyrian Turner103513.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams13285321.967
Bryce Yates4143135.868
Kenny Johnson886110.820
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)784212.022

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster
Pittsburgh's DC Randy Bates
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles293032
Cruce Brookins230002
Kyle Louis194200
Braylan Lovelace181011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis194200
Joseph Zelinsky42210
Zach Crothers153210
Blaine Spires (Tr)103220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles293032
Cruce Brookins230002
Braylan Lovelace181011

Florida State's OC Gus Malzahn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)172568%3893015.6
Kevin Sperry4580%612012.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micahi Danzy4109227.353
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)208514.314
Samuel Singleton482120.553
Ousmane Kromah126805.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)7191227.382
Jaylin Lucas371023.764
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)256128.053
Ousmane Kromah250125.043

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Tony White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II111001
Justin Cryer101000
Ashlynd Barker70002
Ja'Bril Rawls60001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stefon Thompson (Tr)31100
Daniel Lyons32120
Tyeland Coleman21100
Deamontae Diggs (Tr)11100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashlynd Barker70002
Earl Little II111001
Blake Nichelson52011