Virginia at Missouri - 2025 Matchup Preview
Virginia logo (#17)Virginia Cavaliers vs Missouri TigersMissouri logo
Saturday, December 27th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Missouri -4 (43.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Virginia 13 - Missouri: 7  (TaxSlayer Gator Bowl)

 
Cavaliers (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Missouri -1.5  (SP+ MIZ -4)

Projected Score: UVA: 23 - MIZ: 25 (48)
MIZ Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 749 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (37 - 24)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.557.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+3.053.0L 31 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.554.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-16.548.5W 48 - 20OY
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+7.059.5W 46 - 38OY
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+6.559.5W 30 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-16.556.5W 22 - 20UN
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina-12.551.5W 17 - 16UN
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California-6.552.5W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-7.048.5L 9 - 16UN
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke+5.559.5W 34 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-9.553.5W 27 - 7UY
Sat 12/6 Virginia vs Duke-3.558.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 12/27 Virginia vs Missouri+4.043.5W 13 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 4, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 4, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Missouri's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Missouri vs Central Arkansas-38.552.5W 61 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Missouri vs Kansas-5.551.0W 42 - 31OY
Sat 9/13 Missouri vs Louisiana-27.547.5W 52 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 Missouri vs South Carolina-10.048.5W 29 - 20ON
Sat 9/27 Missouri vs Massachusetts-44.557.5W 42 - 6UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Missouri vs Alabama+3.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 Missouri at Auburn-1.543.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 10/25 Missouri at Vanderbilt+3.052.5L 10 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Missouri vs Texas A&M+7.048.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Missouri vs Mississippi State-7.550.5W 49 - 27OY
Sat 11/22 Missouri at Oklahoma+4.542.5L 6 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Missouri at Arkansas-4.554.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 Missouri vs Virginia-4.043.5L 7 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#64 (.18)42% (82)30.844% (66)3.04 (51)17241% (79)2253.49 (91)#18 (.06)37% (21)19.639% (30)37% (25)3.01 (19)420.91.4
MIZ#51 (.2)45% (43)30.248% (23)3.12 (37)21642% (65)1813.85 (56)#11 (.04)35% (7)18.935% (8)35% (13)3.24 (33)48.11.20.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3
MIZ#70 (.19)44% (54)47% (28)3.04 (67)15941% (80)2023.91 (68)#32 (.11)41% (54)42% (57)39% (56)3.38 (28)460.71.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1430.828.641.6%3.490.9203971722254.850%49%44%41%14%.18
MIZ Defense1318.920.634.5%3.240.8 - - - - - 47%51%35%35%20%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1419.623.237.4%3.011.4 - - - - - 51%47%39%37%18%.06
MIZ Offense1330.239.544.8%3.851.2223972161815.455%43%48%42%13%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1429:3120.349%46%5420.91.44.62.1330.7
Missouri1330:1122.146%68%5.148.11.20.86.62.8428.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1450% (65)44% (66)36172.14.828 (11).19 (34)3.04 (51)81% (13)8% (25)1.06 (33)
MIZ Defense1347% (38)35% (8) - - - - .01 (19)2.64 (23)68% (49)13% (9)0.95 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1451% (78)39% (30) - - - - .04 (31)2.75 (43)71% (69)9% (75)0.92 (47)
MIZ Offense1355% (32)48% (23)40.3216.25.430 (4).23 (16)3.12 (37)89% (1)9% (49)1.08 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1449% (73)41% (79)20.732.42256.910.918 (50)10 (60).24 (74)1.5 (74)32% (84)33% (34).36 (47)6% (68)1.9 (111)
MIZ Defense1351% (98)35% (13) - - - - - - 7 (75).1 (16)1.6 (83)35% (20)28% (39).27 (61)7% (14)2.1 (82)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1447% (50)37% (25) - - - - - - 13 (38).15 (29)1.5 (44)32% (60)23% (3).11 (8)9% (6)1.9 (25)
MIZ Offense1343% (106)42% (65)16.726180.6710.815 (50)10 (108).18 (106)1.4 (115)29% (34)31% (60).28 (76)4% (16)2.1 (28)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 17.51  #25
Virginia's Offense Rating: 16.28  #32
Virginia's Defense Rating: -1.23  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1  #28
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1  #49
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #23

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 17.51   Missouri: 16.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 12.1   Missouri: 16.1




Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 16.24  #29
Missouri's Offense Rating: 11.48  #56
Missouri's Defense Rating: -4.90  #15
2025 Talent Rating: 856.00  #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 32  #21
Missouri's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Missouri's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.1  #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #32
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.6  #13

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 25
Virginia 23


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 28
Missouri 23

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Missouri 28
Virginia 25

Total Points: 53
Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Missouri's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/27Missouri7Virginia13Missouri -4Virginia43.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri000 Overs
Virginia111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

Virginia Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Gator Bowl Virginia vs Missouri+4.043.5W 13 - 7
2019Orange Bowl Virginia vs Florida+16.055.5L 28 - 36
Missouri Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Gator Bowl Missouri vs Virginia-4.043.5L 7 - 13
2024City Bowl Missouri vs Iowa-1.041.0W 27 - 24
2023Cotton Bowl Missouri vs Ohio State+4.051.0W 14 - 3
2022Gasparilla Bowl Missouri vs Wake Forest+3.059.0L 17 - 27
2021Forces Bowl Missouri vs Army+7.054.0L 22 - 24
  
(#25) UVA at (#29) MIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUVAMIZ
Power RatePwr #25 #29
SP+SP+ #28 #19
Perf GradeGrade #16 #10
OffenseOff #46 #11
DefenseDef #15 #9
Spec TeamsST #33 #12
TalentTal #21 #38
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #21
Virginia Notes
(11/26) Star LB Kam Robinson out for season (ACL)
(11/16) Killed Duke, Hoos incredible story. ACC threat
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/25) Box score L vs NC. Great story, but badly overrated
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
Virginia Injury Report
Missouri Notes
(12/28) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (30-67)
(12/21) Hired Chip Lindsey at OC (Mich). Awful hire
(11/27) HC Drinkwitz extended, makes almost 11 mil per
(11/21) QB Pribula will start vs OU
(11/16) Killed MSU, but QB3 Zollers ain't ready. Run Off++
(10/22) Starting Kicker inj, Fr R Meyer replacement
(10/10) OT Cayden Green returns for Bama game, big add
(9/21) Big W over SCar, Run Off good, Run Def great
(9/8) QB Pribula a good passer, a dynamic weapon
(9/8) RBs Hardy & Roberts are a great duo
(8/28) QB Horn looks done for the year (leg)
(7/20) DBs really good w/ Catalon + Hall portal adds
Missouri Injury Report
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffMIZ Def
Perf GradePerf #46 #9
SuccessSuc #82 #7
ExplosiveExp #45 #73
PPAPPA #64 #11
PowerPwr #32 #15
SP+SP+ #49 #13
Pts POPPO #91 #33
HavocHav #38 #9
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffMIZ Def
Run GameRun #58 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #66 #8
Run ExplRExp #33 #64
PPAExp #34 #19
Run BlockR Blk #44 -
OL YdsOLY #51 #23
Stuff RateStuff #35 #38
TackleTak -  #11
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffMIZ Def
Pass GamePass #42 #28
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #13
Pass ExplPExl #74 #83
PPAExp #74 #16
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #4
F7 HavocF7 #25 #9
DB HavocDB #68 #14
Missouri on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatMIZ OffUVA Def
Perf GradePerf #11 #15
SuccessSuc #43 #21
ExplosiveExp #85 #35
PPAPPA #51 #18
PowerPwr #56 #27
SP+SP+ #32 #23
Pts POPPO #56 #19
HavocHav #25 #23
Missouri Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
MIZ OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #6 #39
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #30
Run ExplRExp #26 #47
PPAExp #16 #31
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLY #37 #43
Stuff RateStuff #44 #70
TackleTak -  #39
Missouri Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatMIZ OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #73 #18
Pass SuccessPSuc #65 #25
Pass ExplPExl #115 #44
PPAExp #106 #29
Pass Block/RushP Blk #12 #32
F7 HavocF7 #49 #75
DB HavocDB #16 #6
Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in EverBank Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 70° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Missouri -4.0 (43.5)
Virginia won at Missouri this year (13-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)28243665%30001696.9
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)305258%339116.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)2221062144.878
Harrison Waylee (Tr)11855664.797
Chandler Morris (Tr)6424553.842
Xavier Brown5124114.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trell Harris59847514.475
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)46564112.337
Cameron Ross53543210.246
J'mari Taylor (Tr)4325315.925

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
James Jackson663053
Kamren Robinson644221
Maddox Marcellus (Tr)493211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)369791
Mitchell Melton (Tr)4510573
Fisher Camac (Tr)446424
Jacob Holmes (Tr)336340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Karnley (Tr)262008
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
Christian Charles (Tr)431026

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)18227067%19461197.2
Matt Zollers478853%503425.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ahmad Hardy (Tr)2561649166.472
Jamal Roberts12475366.163
Beau Pribula (Tr)9529763.149
Marquise Davis3420025.923
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr. (Tr)66732111.150
Donovan Olugbode30401213.434
Marquis Johnson28345212.349
Joshua Manning29318211.034

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Trotter (Tr)8413271
Nicholas Rodriguez614207
Santana Banner (Tr)591003
Marvin Burks Jr.492001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damon Wilson Jr.2299132
Zion Young42167142
Chris McClellan488662
Darris Smith1565112
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nicholas Rodriguez614207
Dreyden Norwood242005
Daylan Carnell417014