Virginia at Missouri - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, December 27th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Missouri -4 (43.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Virginia 13 - Missouri: 7 (TaxSlayer Gator Bowl)

Cavaliers (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Virginia -0.5 (SP+ MIZ -3)
Projected Score: UVA: 24 - MIZ: 24 (48)
MIZ Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 562 miles

Tigers (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (37 - 24)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
UVA Players
MIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Virginia vs Coastal Carolina	-12.5	57.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Virginia at NC State	+3.0	53.0	L 31 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/13	Virginia vs William & Mary	-30.5	54.5	W 55 - 16	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Virginia vs Stanford	-16.5	48.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
Fri 9/26	Virginia vs Florida State	+7.0	59.5	W 46 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Virginia at Louisville	+6.5	59.5	W 30 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Virginia vs Washington State	-16.5	56.5	W 22 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/25	Virginia at North Carolina	-12.5	51.5	W 17 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/1	Virginia at California	-6.5	52.5	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Virginia vs Wake Forest	-7.0	48.5	L 9 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/15	Virginia at Duke	+5.5	59.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	53.5	W 27 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/6	Virginia vs Duke	-3.5	58.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 12/27	Virginia vs Missouri	+4.0	43.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Missouri's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Missouri vs Central Arkansas	-38.5	52.5	W 61 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Missouri vs Kansas	-5.5	51.0	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Missouri vs Louisiana	-27.5	47.5	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Missouri vs South Carolina	-10.0	48.5	W 29 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/27	Missouri vs Massachusetts	-44.5	57.5	W 42 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Missouri vs Alabama	+3.5	50.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Missouri at Auburn	-1.5	43.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Missouri at Vanderbilt	+3.0	52.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Missouri vs Texas A&M	+7.0	48.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/15	Missouri vs Mississippi State	-7.5	50.5	W 49 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Missouri at Oklahoma	+4.5	42.5	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/29	Missouri at Arkansas	-4.5	54.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/27	Missouri vs Virginia	-4.0	43.5	L 7 - 13	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)	30.8	43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)	19.6	44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)	30.2	47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)	18.9	42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	12	30.8	28.6	40%	3.47	1.6	19	362	133	229	3.7	48%	52%	43%	37%	18%	.13
MIZ Defense	13	18.9	20.6	40.6%	3.38	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	39%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	12	19.6	23.2	42.6%	4.04	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	44%	42%	15%	.27
MIZ Offense	13	30.2	39.5	44%	3.91	0.7	19	361	159	202	4.3	53%	47%	47%	41%	11%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	12	29:53	19.3	34%	52%	5.2	45.3	1.6	1.3	4.8	1.8	0	29.5
Missouri	13	30:28	19.5	47%	53%	5.2	46	0.7	1.2	5	1.9	2	31

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	12	48% (84)	43% (77)	35.9	132.8	3.7	14 (98)	.16 (50)	3.29 (25)	73% (77)	11% (96)	0.91 (92)
MIZ Defense	13	53% (91)	42% (57)	-	-	-	-	.01 (18)	2.75 (29)	73% (64)	12% (22)	0.92 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	12	49% (53)	44% (77)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.29 (112)	77% (89)	9% (104)	0.99 (69)
MIZ Offense	13	53% (48)	47% (28)	37.1	158.7	4.3	25 (41)	.12 (73)	3.04 (67)	79% (26)	8% (31)	0.9 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	12	52% (52)	37% (113)	20.5	33.4	229	6.9	11.2	16 (87)	14 (115)	.11 (122)	1.5 (86)	33% (101)	26% (115)	.17 (120)	7% (100)	1.7 (129)
MIZ Defense	13	47% (47)	39% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.23 (65)	1.6 (70)	32% (61)	27% (20)	.2 (27)	6% (54)	2 (65)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	12	50% (83)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.37 (121)	1.6 (84)	32% (67)	32% (84)	.43 (110)	6% (67)	2.1 (82)
MIZ Offense	13	47% (85)	41% (80)	17.8	28.5	202.2	7.1	11.4	12 (118)	5 (6)	.26 (66)	1.6 (69)	30% (49)	33% (52)	.39 (44)	4% (10)	2.1 (49)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 15.98 #18
Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.24 #26
Virginia's Defense Rating: 4.26 #19
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1 #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 15.98 Missouri: 12.835

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 11.1 Missouri: 14.4

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 12.835 #39
Missouri's Offense Rating: 12.08 #73
Missouri's Defense Rating: 0.81 #12
2025 Talent Rating: 856.00 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 32 #21
Missouri's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Missouri's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.4 #21
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #47
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia 24
Missouri 24

Projected Total Points: 48

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Missouri's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/27	Missouri	7	Virginia	13	Missouri -4	Virginia	43.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri	0	0	0 Overs
Virginia	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Virginia Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Gator Bowl	Virginia vs Missouri	+4.0	43.5	W 13 - 7
2019	Orange Bowl	Virginia vs Florida	+16.0	55.5	L 28 - 36

Missouri Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Gator Bowl	Missouri vs Virginia	-4.0	43.5	L 7 - 13
2024	City Bowl	Missouri vs Iowa	-1.0	41.0	W 27 - 24
2023	Cotton Bowl	Missouri vs Ohio State	+4.0	51.0	W 14 - 3
2022	Gasparilla Bowl	Missouri vs Wake Forest	+3.0	59.0	L 17 - 27
2021	Forces Bowl	Missouri vs Army	+7.0	54.0	L 22 - 24

(#18) UVA at (#39) MIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	MIZ
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#18	#39
SP+SP+	#31	#21
Perf GradeGrade	#20	#7
OffenseOff	#50	#13
DefenseDef	#12	#7
Spec TeamsST	#51	#9
TalentTal	#21	#38
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#21

Virginia Notes(11/26) Star LB Kam Robinson out for season (ACL)
(11/16) Killed Duke, Hoos incredible story. ACC threat
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/25) Box score L vs NC. Great story, but badly overrated
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
Virginia Injury Report

Missouri Notes(12/28) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (30-67)
(12/21) Hired Chip Lindsey at OC (Mich). Awful hire
(11/27) HC Drinkwitz extended, makes almost 11 mil per
(11/21) QB Pribula will start vs OU
(11/16) Killed MSU, but QB3 Zollers ain't ready. Run Off++
(10/22) Starting Kicker inj, Fr R Meyer replacement
(10/10) OT Cayden Green returns for Bama game, big add
(9/21) Big W over SCar, Run Off good, Run Def great
(9/8) QB Pribula a good passer, a dynamic weapon
(9/8) RBs Hardy & Roberts are a great duo
(8/28) QB Horn looks done for the year (leg)
(7/20) DBs really good w/ Catalon + Hall portal adds
Missouri Injury Report

Virginia on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	MIZ Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#50	#7
SuccessSuc	#103	#54
ExplosiveExp	#105	#51
PPAPPA	#102	#32
PowerPwr	#26	#12
SP+SP+	#56	#10
Pts POPPO	#106	#28
HavocHav	#109	#32

Virginia Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#52	#7
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#57
Run ExplRExp	#92	#43
PPAExp	#50	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#61	-
OL YdsOLY	#25	#29
Stuff RateStuff	#6	#46
TackleTak	-	#17

Virginia Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#113	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#70
PPAExp	#122	#65
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#90	#6
F7 HavocF7	#96	#22
DB HavocDB	#100	#54

Missouri on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UVA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#13	#12
SuccessSuc	#54	#80
ExplosiveExp	#114	#87
PPAPPA	#70	#116
PowerPwr	#73	#19
SP+SP+	#47	#19
Pts POPPO	#68	#94
HavocHav	#9	#91

Missouri Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#11	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#28	#77
Run ExplRExp	#100	#69
PPAExp	#73	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#10	-
OL YdsOLY	#67	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#25	#121
TackleTak	-	#37

Missouri Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#77
Pass ExplPExl	#69	#84
PPAExp	#66	#121
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#7	#31
F7 HavocF7	#31	#104
DB HavocDB	#10	#67

Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in EverBank Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Missouri -4.0 (43.5)
Virginia won at Missouri this year (13-7)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Missouri last year (13-7)

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	282	436	65%	3000	16	9	6.9
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)	30	52	58%	339	1	1	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)	222	1062	14	4.8	78
Harrison Waylee (Tr)	118	556	6	4.7	97
Chandler Morris (Tr)	64	245	5	3.8	42
Xavier Brown	51	241	1	4.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trell Harris	59	847	5	14.4	75
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)	46	564	1	12.3	37
Cameron Ross	53	543	2	10.2	46
J'mari Taylor (Tr)	43	253	1	5.9	25

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devin Neal (Tr)	88	2	1	2	7
James Jackson	66	3	0	5	3
Kamren Robinson	64	4	2	2	1
Maddox Marcellus (Tr)	49	3	2	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)	36	9	7	9	1
Mitchell Melton (Tr)	45	10	5	7	3
Fisher Camac (Tr)	44	6	4	2	4
Jacob Holmes (Tr)	33	6	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emmanuel Karnley (Tr)	26	2	0	0	8
Devin Neal (Tr)	88	2	1	2	7
Christian Charles (Tr)	43	1	0	2	6

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)	182	270	67%	1946	11	9	7.2
Matt Zollers	47	88	53%	503	4	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmad Hardy (Tr)	256	1649	16	6.4	72
Jamal Roberts	124	753	6	6.1	63
Beau Pribula (Tr)	95	297	6	3.1	49
Marquise Davis	34	200	2	5.9	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr. (Tr)	66	732	1	11.1	50
Donovan Olugbode	30	401	2	13.4	34
Marquis Johnson	28	345	2	12.3	49
Joshua Manning	29	318	2	11.0	34

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josiah Trotter (Tr)	84	13	2	7	1
Nicholas Rodriguez	61	4	2	0	7
Santana Banner (Tr)	59	1	0	0	3
Marvin Burks Jr.	49	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damon Wilson Jr.	22	9	9	13	2
Zion Young	42	16	7	14	2
Chris McClellan	48	8	6	6	2
Darris Smith	15	6	5	11	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nicholas Rodriguez	61	4	2	0	7
Dreyden Norwood	24	2	0	0	5
Daylan Carnell	41	7	0	1	4