Wake Forest at Virginia - 2025 Matchup Preview
Wake Forest logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Cavaliers(#14)Virginia logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Virginia -7 (48.5) (-258)  Open: -6.5
Wake Forest 16 - Virginia: 9  (ACC)

 
Demon Deacons (8 - 4) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (25 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
WAKE 2nd straight Road Game
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Virginia -9.5  (SP+ UVA -8)

Projected Score: WAKE: 20 - UVA: 29 (49)
UVA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
WAKE Travel: 163 miles
Cavaliers (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.551.5W 10 - 9UN
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+7.552.5L 24 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.553.5L 29 - 30OY
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.551.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.547.5W 39 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+6.553.5W 13 - 12UY
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+12.550.5L 7 - 42UN
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+7.048.5W 16 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.537.5W 28 - 12OY
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.549.5W 52 - 14OY
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+2.554.0L 32 - 49ON
Fri 1/2 Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.052.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.557.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+3.053.0L 31 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.554.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-16.548.5W 48 - 20OY
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+7.059.5W 46 - 38OY
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+6.559.5W 30 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-16.556.5W 22 - 20UN
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina-12.551.5W 17 - 16UN
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California-6.552.5W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-7.048.5L 9 - 16UN
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke+5.559.5W 34 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-9.553.5W 27 - 7UY
Sat 12/6 Virginia vs Duke-3.558.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 12/27 Virginia vs Missouri+4.043.5W 13 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#91 (.13)38% (117)26.839% (107)2.74 (108)15737% (115)2323.16 (119)#7 (.02)35% (10)21.537% (13)33% (8)3.19 (32)68.91.71.3
UVA#64 (.18)42% (82)30.844% (66)3.04 (51)17241% (79)2253.49 (91)#18 (.06)37% (21)19.639% (30)37% (25)3.01 (19)420.91.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)43% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)48% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Offense1226.824.837.9%3.161.7193891572324.550%48%39%37%16%.13
UVA Defense1419.617.737.4%3.011.4 - - - - - 51%47%39%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Defense1221.527.434.9%3.191.3 - - - - - 46%52%37%33%18%.02
UVA Offense1430.836.441.6%3.490.9203971722254.850%49%44%41%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wake Forest1228:5218.738%55%7.368.91.71.37.32.1230.9
Virginia1429:3120.349%46%5420.91.44.62.1330.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense1250% (62)39% (107)34.8156.84.521 (49).11 (70)2.74 (108)77% (36)10% (77)1.16 (10)
UVA Defense1451% (78)39% (30) - - - - .04 (31)2.75 (43)71% (69)9% (75)0.92 (47)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense1246% (23)37% (13) - - - - -.01 (13)2.47 (11)63% (16)12% (12)0.89 (31)
UVA Offense1450% (65)44% (66)36172.14.828 (11).19 (34)3.04 (51)81% (13)8% (25)1.06 (33)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense1248% (74)37% (115)17.731.1232.37.513.215 (106)10 (34).22 (84)1.7 (26)33% (89)27% (105).28 (78)6% (84)2.2 (15)
UVA Defense1447% (50)37% (25) - - - - - - 13 (38).15 (29)1.5 (44)32% (60)23% (3).11 (8)9% (6)1.9 (25)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense1252% (108)33% (8) - - - - - - 4 (100).09 (10)1.5 (55)36% (14)27% (25).16 (15)7% (46)2 (66)
UVA Offense1449% (73)41% (79)20.732.42256.910.918 (50)10 (60).24 (74)1.5 (74)32% (84)33% (34).36 (47)6% (68)1.9 (111)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 11.13  #39
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 5.97  #86
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: -5.16  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4  #56
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #34

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 11.13   Virginia: 17.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 4.4   Virginia: 12.1




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 17.305  #25
Virginia's Offense Rating: 16.28  #32
Virginia's Defense Rating: -1.23  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1  #28
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1  #49
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #23

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.4

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 29
Wake Forest 20


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 24
Wake Forest 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Virginia 29
Wake Forest 22

Total Points: 51
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Virginia9Wake Forest16Virginia -7Wake Forest48.5Under
202409/07Wake Forest30Virginia31Virginia -1.5Wake Forest55.5Over
202109/24Virginia17Wake Forest37Virginia -3.5Wake Forest71.0Under
202010/17Wake Forest40Virginia23Wake Forest -2.5Wake Forest57.5Over
201611/05Wake Forest27Virginia20Wake Forest -2.5Wake Forest45.0Over
201210/20Virginia10Wake Forest16
200811/08Wake Forest28Virginia17
200711/03Virginia17Wake Forest16
200309/27Virginia27Wake Forest24
200209/28Wake Forest34Virginia38
200111/03Virginia30Wake Forest34
200009/29Wake Forest10Virginia27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia503 Overs
Wake Forest752 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 73 - 22 - 21 - 0
Road Teams7 - 52 - 30 - 12 - 2

(#39) WAKE at (#25) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWAKEUVA
Power RatePwr #39 #25
SP+SP+ #56 #28
Perf GradeGrade #62 #16
OffenseOff #113 #46
DefenseDef #18 #15
Spec TeamsST #10 #33
TalentTal #35 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #65
Wake Forest Notes
(11/5) Ugly L @ FSU, Box score much closer, 11 pen/2 TO
(10/24) Robby Ashford ? again vs SMU, Purdie good vs OSU
(10/7) Great W over VT, Def held Hokies to 263 yds, 7-17 3rd
(9/11) Off fast start vs NC St, 2nd half went nowhere
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
Wake Forest Injury Report
Virginia Notes
(11/26) Star LB Kam Robinson out for season (ACL)
(11/16) Killed Duke, Hoos incredible story. ACC threat
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/25) Box score L vs NC. Great story, but badly overrated
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
Virginia Injury Report
Wake Forest on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffUVA Def
Perf GradePerf #113 #15
SuccessSuc #117 #21
ExplosiveExp #5 #35
PPAPPA #91 #18
PowerPwr #86 #27
SP+SP+ #82 #23
Pts POPPO #119 #19
HavocHav #86 #23
Wake Forest Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #117 #39
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #30
Run ExplRExp #10 #47
PPAExp #70 #31
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLY #108 #43
Stuff RateStuff #74 #70
TackleTak -  #39
Wake Forest Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #104 #18
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #25
Pass ExplPExl #26 #44
PPAExp #84 #29
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #32
F7 HavocF7 #77 #75
DB HavocDB #84 #6
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffWAKE Def
Perf GradePerf #46 #18
SuccessSuc #82 #10
ExplosiveExp #45 #45
PPAPPA #64 #7
PowerPwr #32 #14
SP+SP+ #49 #34
Pts POPPO #91 #32
HavocHav #38 #20
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffWAKE Def
Run GameRun #58 #51
Run SuccessRSuc #66 #13
Run ExplRExp #33 #31
PPAExp #34 #13
Run BlockR Blk #44 -
OL YdsOLY #51 #11
Stuff RateStuff #35 #4
TackleTak -  #83
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffWAKE Def
Pass GamePass #42 #14
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #8
Pass ExplPExl #74 #55
PPAExp #74 #10
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78 #20
F7 HavocF7 #25 #12
DB HavocDB #68 #46
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56°
Rematch from Week 11
Virginia -7.0 (48.5)
Wake Forest won at Virginia this year (16-9)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Wake Forest last year (31-30)

  
WAKE's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)17128959%2169977.5
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)418250%618637.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne179905105.185
Robby Ashford (Tr)11650474.343
Ty Clark III5823234.015
Chris Barnes (Tr)13143011.078
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Barnes (Tr)39547314.070
Carlos Hernandez (Tr)34538315.893
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)25382215.351
Micah Mays Jr.18302216.852

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen956107
Davaughn Patterson784039
Dylan Hazen689053
Aiden Hall667023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Hardy (Tr)6515780
Nuer Gatkuoth (Tr)378680
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)328440
Mateen Ibirogba214230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson784039
Karon Prunty (Tr)341018
Nick Andersen956107

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)28243665%30001696.9
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)305258%339116.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)2221062144.878
Harrison Waylee (Tr)11855664.797
Chandler Morris (Tr)6424553.842
Xavier Brown5124114.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trell Harris59847514.475
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)46564112.337
Cameron Ross53543210.246
J'mari Taylor (Tr)4325315.925

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
James Jackson663053
Kamren Robinson644221
Maddox Marcellus (Tr)493211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)369791
Mitchell Melton (Tr)4510573
Fisher Camac (Tr)446424
Jacob Holmes (Tr)336340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Karnley (Tr)262008
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
Christian Charles (Tr)431026