Wake Forest at Virginia - 2025 Matchup Preview
Wake Forest logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Cavaliers(#14)Virginia logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Virginia -7 (48.5) (-258)  Open: -6.5
Scott Stadium - Charlottesville, VA  (ACC)

 
Demon Deacons (5 - 3) (5 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (25 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 4.8 (#56)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
WAKE 2nd straight Road Game
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Virginia -11  (SP+ UVA -7)

Projected Score: WAKE: 19 - UVA: 30 (50)
UVA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
WAKE Travel: 163 miles
Cavaliers (8 - 1) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 36 - 22 (44 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 1.7 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.551.5W 10 - 9UN
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+7.552.5L 24 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.553.5L 29 - 30OY
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.551.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.547.5W 39 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+6.553.5W 13 - 12UY
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+12.550.5L 7 - 42UN
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+7.048.5
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina-8.5
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-17
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+6

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.557.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+3.053.0L 31 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.554.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-16.548.5W 48 - 20OY
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+7.059.5W 46 - 38OY
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+6.559.5W 30 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-16.556.5W 22 - 20UN
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina-12.551.5W 17 - 16UN
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California-6.552.5W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-7.048.5
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-17.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#111 (.08)37% (124)24.338% (116)2.55 (102)14236% (122)2352.88 (129)#12 (.02)34% (8)21.838% (27)30% (4)3.24 (27)74.81.61.3
UVA#34 (.24)45% (44)36.447% (31)2.77 (76)18943% (65)2523.97 (59)#35 (.1)40% (54)22.242% (66)40% (54)3.79 (79)470.71.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)43% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)48% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Offense824.325.336.6%2.881.6183761422354.248%50%38%36%16%.08
UVA Defense922.220.240.3%3.791.7 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%18%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Defense821.826.333.8%3.241.3 - - - - - 48%51%38%30%19%.02
UVA Offense936.443.844.7%3.970.7224411892524.851%49%47%43%13%.24

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wake Forest829:0318.136%50%8.474.81.61.37.52.1132.2
Virginia931:5122.150%47%5.6470.71.74.92.6330.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense848% (85)38% (116)34141.64.213 (49).07 (90)2.55 (102)75% (47)10% (98)1.06 (29)
UVA Defense947% (36)42% (66) - - - - .09 (78)2.82 (81)80% (121)9% (76)0.89 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense848% (47)38% (27) - - - - -.01 (19)2.28 (20)66% (38)12% (17)0.85 (26)
UVA Offense951% (62)47% (31)39.6188.64.824 (11).24 (16)2.77 (76)82% (10)8% (22)1.04 (40)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense850% (56)36% (122)18.132234.57.312.99 (106)7 (34).18 (97)1.6 (32)33% (106)22% (134).12 (123)6% (75)2.3 (12)
UVA Defense951% (90)40% (54) - - - - - - 10 (38).18 (46)1.4 (30)32% (70)24% (11).11 (10)9% (7)1.7 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense851% (88)30% (4) - - - - - - 4 (100).07 (12)1.6 (92)38% (7)26% (29).16 (23)7% (48)1.9 (48)
UVA Offense949% (74)43% (65)22.634.3252.37.411.213 (50)6 (60).29 (60)1.5 (74)32% (71)35% (29).42 (36)6% (70)1.8 (122)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 7.40  #53
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 2.75  #109
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: -4.65  #12
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 7.2 - 4.8
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.8  #68
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #102
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 7.40   Virginia: 15.13

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 0.8   Virginia: 8.2




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 15.13  #29
Virginia's Offense Rating: 19.96  #23
Virginia's Defense Rating: 2.90  #40
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 10.3 - 1.7
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2  #43
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9  #48
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #46

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.3
Defense: 21.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 30
Wake Forest 19


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 24
Wake Forest 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Virginia 32
Wake Forest 23

Total Points: 55
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 36.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.8
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.2

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 1
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Wake Forest30Virginia31Virginia -1.5Wake Forest55.5Over
202109/24Virginia17Wake Forest37Virginia -3.5Wake Forest71.0Under
202010/17Wake Forest40Virginia23Wake Forest -2.5Wake Forest57.5Over
201611/05Wake Forest27Virginia20Wake Forest -2.5Wake Forest45.0Over
201210/20Virginia10Wake Forest16
200811/08Wake Forest28Virginia17
200711/03Virginia17Wake Forest16
200309/27Virginia27Wake Forest24
200209/28Wake Forest34Virginia38
200111/03Virginia30Wake Forest34
200009/29Wake Forest10Virginia27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia503 Overs
Wake Forest641 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 63 - 12 - 11 - 0
Road Teams6 - 51 - 30 - 11 - 2

(#53) WAKE at (#29) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWAKEUVA
Power RatePwr #53 #29
SP+SP+ #68 #43
Perf GradeGrade #70 #18
OffenseOff #122 #33
DefenseDef #18 #20
Spec TeamsST #10 #19
TalentTal #35 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #65
Wake Forest Notes
(11/5) Ugly L @ FSU, Box score much closer, 11 pen/2 TO
(10/24) Robby Ashford ? again vs SMU, Purdie good vs OSU
(10/7) Great W over VT, Def held Hokies to 263 yds, 7-17 3rd
(9/11) Off fast start vs NC St, 2nd half went nowhere
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
Wake Forest Injury Report
Virginia Notes
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/25) Box score L vs NC. Great story, but badly overrated
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
(5/29) Off could jump w/ better OL, good RB, QB + WR
(5/29) OL has top 20 exp but 57% via portals.
Virginia Injury Report
Wake Forest on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffUVA Def
Perf GradePerf #122 #20
SuccessSuc #124 #54
ExplosiveExp #20 #24
PPAPPA #111 #35
PowerPwr #109 #40
SP+SP+ #102 #46
Pts POPPO #129 #79
HavocHav #87 #28
Wake Forest Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #108 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #116 #66
Run ExplRExp #29 #37
PPAExp #90 #78
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #81
Stuff RateStuff #111 #75
TackleTak -  #30
Wake Forest Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #93 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #122 #54
Pass ExplPExl #32 #30
PPAExp #97 #46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #41 #30
F7 HavocF7 #98 #76
DB HavocDB #75 #7
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUVA OffWAKE Def
Perf GradePerf #33 #18
SuccessSuc #44 #8
ExplosiveExp #58 #38
PPAPPA #34 #12
PowerPwr #23 #12
SP+SP+ #48 #36
Pts POPPO #59 #27
HavocHav #38 #19
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UVA OffWAKE Def
Run GameRun #39 #56
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #27
Run ExplRExp #40 #26
PPAExp #16 #19
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #76 #20
Stuff RateStuff #14 #6
TackleTak -  #71
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUVA OffWAKE Def
Pass GamePass #30 #15
Pass SuccessPSuc #65 #4
Pass ExplPExl #74 #92
PPAExp #60 #12
Pass Block/RushP Blk #63 #10
F7 HavocF7 #22 #17
DB HavocDB #70 #48
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 59°
Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Wake Forest last year (31-30)

  
WAKE's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)10718359%1298357.1
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)387154%578628.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne10663986.085
Robby Ashford (Tr)7128744.041
Ty Clark III4012513.113
Chris Barnes (Tr)105205.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Barnes (Tr)32492315.470
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)19296115.651
Micah Mays Jr.17295217.452
Eni Falayi (Tr)15208213.942

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen696004
Davaughn Patterson504017
Dylan Hazen455031
Langston Hardy (Tr)4210550
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Hardy (Tr)4210550
Nuer Gatkuoth (Tr)275360
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)225320
Jayden Loving (Tr)257230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson504017
Karon Prunty (Tr)220016
Nick Andersen696004

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)18928267%20691257.3
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)122450%194118.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)150686114.666
Harrison Waylee (Tr)5330455.797
Xavier Brown5124114.720
Chandler Morris (Tr)4820844.342
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trell Harris37545414.775
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)34425112.537
Cameron Ross33388211.846
Sage Ennis13135310.425

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamren Robinson544221
Devin Neal (Tr)522124
James Jackson410032
Christian Charles (Tr)341023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)226651
Mitchell Melton (Tr)328443
Cazeem Moore (Tr)133331
Kamren Robinson544221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donavon Platt (Tr)231005
Devin Neal (Tr)522124
Christian Charles (Tr)341023