Florida State at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (4:30 PM EST)
Florida State -1.5 (48.5) (-115)  Open: -2.5 | 51.5
Florida 40 - Florida State: 21

 
Seminoles (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
FSU 2nd straight Road Game
FLA 2nd straight Home Game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
FSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida -3  (SP+ FSU -3.5)

Projected Score: FSU: 23 - FLA: 26 (49)
FSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
FSU Travel: 129 miles
Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-44.556.5W 66 - 10OY
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-7.059.5L 38 - 46ON
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.554.5L 22 - 28UN
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-10.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-17.555.5L 13 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-12.550.5W 42 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+1.556.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-13.553.5W 34 - 14UY
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-7.058.5L 11 - 21UN
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida-1.548.5L 21 - 40ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+7.050.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-4.544.5L 7 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+10.553.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+3.557.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State+1.548.5W 40 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)3340% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2242% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)21.645% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)2449% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense123318.635.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06
FLA Defense132418.743.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122230.240.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
FLA Offense1321.62943%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 7.16  #49
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.67  #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.51  #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45%  #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.16   Florida: 10.195

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.2   Florida: 3.5




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 10.195  #33
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.44  #41
Florida's Defense Rating: 5.55  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 26
Florida State 23


Projected Total Points: 49
Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Florida40Florida State21Florida State -1.5Florida48.5Over
202411/30Florida State11Florida31Florida -17.5Florida45.5Under
202311/25Florida15Florida State24Florida State -6Florida State51.0Under
202211/25Florida State45Florida38Florida State -10Florida58.5Over
202111/27Florida24Florida State21Florida -4Florida State58.5Under
201911/30Florida40Florida State17Florida -16.5Florida55.0Over
201811/24Florida State14Florida41Florida -8.5Florida52.0Over
201711/25Florida22Florida State38Florida State -4.5Florida State43.0Over
201611/26Florida State31Florida13Florida State -5Florida State47.0Under
201511/28Florida2Florida State27Florida -3Florida State44.0Under
201411/29Florida State24Florida19Florida State -10Florida0
201311/30Florida7Florida State37Florida State -26Florida State0
201211/24Florida State26Florida37
201111/26Florida7Florida State21
201011/27Florida State31Florida7
200911/28Florida37Florida State10
200811/29Florida State15Florida45
200711/24Florida45Florida State12
200611/25Florida State14Florida21
200511/26Florida34Florida State7
200411/20Florida State13Florida20
200311/29Florida34Florida State38
200111/17Florida37Florida State13
200011/17Florida State30Florida7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1365 Overs
Florida State1165 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 123 - 92 - 41 - 5
Road Teams12 - 129 - 35 - 14 - 2

(#49) FSU at (#33) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUFLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #49 #33
SP+SP+ #41 #63
Perf GradeGrade #28 #49
OffenseOff #21 #51
DefenseDef #65 #62
Spec TeamsST #41 #86
TalentTal #17 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #12
Florida State Notes
(12/16) FSU looks like they aren't serious about 2026
(11/23) Norvell will return in '26. Fund road slate now
(11/22) A straight 0-8 in road ACC games past 2 years
(10/20) Rumors sound toxic, player leadership void
(10/19) Norvell lost 4 straight, 4 times now. 1-11 ACC run
(10/19) OG'd Stanford by 150, still lost for the 4th straight time
(10/19) Castellanos knocked out of Stanford game, dirty hit
(10/12) Norvell w/o Jordan Travis is 7-21.
(10/11) LBs lack speed and huge liability in coverage
(10/11) Noles have lost their last 8 ACC conference games
(9/26) Tackling a huge issue vs UVA, allowed 450+ in L
(8/30) Outrushed Bama 230-87, Cast quick, efficient
Florida State Injury Report
Florida Notes
(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #21 #62
SuccessSuc #128 #95
ExplosiveExp #58 #32
PPAPPA #125 #53
PowerPwr #30 #25
SP+SP+ #54 #43
Pts POPPO #131 #14
HavocHav #129 #36
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #28 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #118
Run ExplRExp #118 #10
PPAExp #101 #73
Run BlockR Blk #36 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #78
Stuff RateStuff #85 #84
TackleTak -  #11
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #9 #80
Pass SuccessPSuc #130 #44
Pass ExplPExl #20 #87
PPAExp #130 #34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #14 #98
F7 HavocF7 #130 #37
DB HavocDB #62 #43
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatFLA OffFSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #51 #65
SuccessSuc #64 #56
ExplosiveExp #93 #114
PPAPPA #72 #112
PowerPwr #41 #58
SP+SP+ #89 #38
Pts POPPO #46 #46
HavocHav #68 #98
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #34 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #62
Run ExplRExp #82 #114
PPAExp #63 #109
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #81
Stuff RateStuff #77 #88
TackleTak -  #44
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatFLA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #86 #106
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #52
Pass ExplPExl #48 #120
PPAExp #73 #110
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #93
F7 HavocF7 #56 #77
DB HavocDB #90 #116
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 64° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 14
Florida State 1.5 (48.5)
Florida won vs Florida State this year (40-21)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Florida State last year (40-21)
Florida beat Florida State in 2024 (31-11)
Florida State beat Florida in 2023 (24-15)

  
FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)18030958%27601598.9
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)13755794.126
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)10948684.540
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Lawayne McCoy27403314.934
Randy Pittman (Tr)2320829.035

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II762002
Ashlynd Barker485412
Darrell Jackson442110
Blake Nichelson437111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Ashlynd Barker485412
Stefon Thompson (Tr)374410
Daniel Lyons264240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edwin Joseph374005
Earl Little II762002
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)421002

FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway21333763%226416146.7
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
D.J. Lagway7113611.938
KD Daniels2812014.316
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)27406315.057
Hayden Hansen3025428.528
Eugene Wilson2723938.940

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Jordan Castell540020
Aaron Chiles523111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett (Tr)404310
Myles Graham767274
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Myles Graham767274
J'Vari Flowers171004