Florida State at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Gainesville, FL

 
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
FSU 2nd straight Road Game
FLA 2nd straight Home Game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
FSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida -14.5   (SP+ FLA -10)
Projected Score: FSU: 17 - FLA: 32 (47)
FLA Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
FSU Travel: 129 miles
Gators (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (29 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.551.0
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-31
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-36.5
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-5.5
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+10
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-5.5
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-17
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+20.5
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-4.5
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State+1
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+14.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-43
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-21.5
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+8.5
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+6.5
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+4.5
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-21
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+5.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-12
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+1
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee-5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-14.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)15.440% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2842% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)28.345% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)23.149% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense1215.412.335.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06
FLA Defense1323.12143.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122838.340.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
FLA Offense1328.329.343%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 8.01 #43
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.69 #56
Florida State's Defense Rating: 7.68 #28
2025 Talent Rating: 934.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 44% #15
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #36
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 828.59
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 8.01   Florida: 22.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.2   Florida: 17.3




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 22.22 #12
Florida's Offense Rating: 27.00 #9
Florida's Defense Rating: 4.86 #17
2025 Talent Rating: 1056.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 49 #10
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #14
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 954.75
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 32
Florida State 17

Projected Total Points: 47
Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Florida State11Florida31FloridaFlorida -17.5Florida45.5Under
202311/25Florida15Florida State24Florida StateFlorida State -6Florida State51.0Under
202211/25Florida State45Florida38Florida StateFlorida State -10Florida58.5Over
202111/27Florida24Florida State21FloridaFlorida -4Florida State58.5Under
201911/30Florida40Florida State17FloridaFlorida -16.5Florida55.0Over
201811/24Florida State14Florida41FloridaFlorida -8.5Florida52.0Over
201711/25Florida22Florida State38Florida StateFlorida State -4.5Florida State43.0Over
201611/26Florida State31Florida13Florida StateFlorida State -5Florida State47.0Under
201511/28Florida2Florida State27Florida StateFlorida -3Florida State44.0Under
201411/29Florida State24Florida19Florida StateFlorida State -10Florida0
201311/30Florida7Florida State37Florida StateFlorida State -26Florida State0
201211/24Florida State26Florida37Florida
201111/26Florida7Florida State21Florida State
201011/27Florida State31Florida7Florida State
200911/28Florida37Florida State10Florida
200811/29Florida State15Florida45Florida
200711/24Florida45Florida State12Florida
200611/25Florida State14Florida21Florida
200511/26Florida34Florida State7Florida
200411/20Florida State13Florida20Florida
200311/29Florida34Florida State38Florida State
200111/17Florida37Florida State13Florida
200011/17Florida State30Florida7Florida State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1254 Overs
Florida State1165 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 122 - 92 - 40 - 5
Road Teams12 - 119 - 25 - 04 - 2

(#43) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.01 #43
Offense Rating: 15.69 #56
Defense Rating: 7.68 #28
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #28
Talent Rating: 934.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 44% #15
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.88 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Florida State Notes
(7/13) Watch Fr RB Kromah, RBs talent but ? prod
(7/13) OC Malzahn interesting, DC White good (3-3-5)
(6/19) Spring was a wash on Off w/ so many injuries
(5/31) 8 win ceiling, lower & fan interest could plummet
(5/31) Def depth key, lack stars, DT Jackson has tools
(5/31) OL 4/5 starters & 80% overall exp via 6 portals
(5/31) WRs Robinson(USC) big add, depth a huge ?
(5/21) Off could start 8 portals. New OC. Total wildcard
(5/21) Def looks OK, portal DEs, CB is a ?, New DC
(5/21) Norvell 3 of 5 yrs sub .500. Crootin meh
Florida State     Ratings Matchup     Florida
Power #43
#12
Off #56
#9
Def #28
#17
Talent #17
#9
SP+ #36
#14
SP+ Off #58
#16
SP+ Def #28
#21

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Florida State last year (31-11)
Florida State beat Florida in 2023 (24-15)
Florida State beat Florida in 2022 (45-38)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FSU | FLA
Depth Chart: FSU | FLA
Rosters: FSU | FLA
(#12) Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.22 #12
Offense Rating: 27.00 #9
Defense Rating: 4.86 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #14
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #21
Talent Rating: 1056.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 49 #10
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Great in Scoring Position 3.12 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Florida Notes
(6/6) DL a top 5 unit via PFF, front line + depth
(6/6) OL 2 starters, 2 w/ exp. PFF rates at top 5 OL
(5/23) Safety duo of Thorton & Castell a top unit in CFB
(5/6) Proj starting CB D Johnson arrested (serious)
(5/1) Fr WR D Wilson dominated spring ball, will play
(4/4) OT Jake Slaughter the top T via PFF
(3/29) QB Lagway is special, has inj history though
(3/29) WR lost top 2, Wilson fast, Jackson hurt LY
(3/18) RB Jaden Baugh (Fr) a breakout in '24
(3/18) Def improved LY, good returning prod in '25


  
Florida State's OC Gus Malzahn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)9916162%13661858.5
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)9319412.118
Kam Davis5217303.316
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)3912813.321
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randy Pittman (Tr)32416213.048
Duce Robinson (Tr)23396517.248
Squirrel White (Tr)34381211.245
Landen Thomas14173112.435

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Tony White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Deante McCray (Tr)553220
K.J. Kirkland451002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
James Williams (Tr)146540
Deamontae Diggs (Tr)347562
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Darrell Jackson284441
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)244004
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Omar Graham Jr.374113

Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Aidan Warner215042%228034.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Treyaun Webb219314.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)22315214.345
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840
Aidan Mizell17202211.943

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Jaden Robinson524410
Tyreak Sapp4613750
Bryce Thornton412013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Bryce Thornton412013
Aaron Gates274013