Florida State at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo (#7)Florida State Seminoles at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Gainesville, FL

 
Seminoles (2 - 0) (2 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 54 - 10 (54 - 10 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 2.3 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
FSU 2nd straight Road Game
FLA 2nd straight Home Game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
FSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida -0.5   (SP+ FLA -0)

Projected Score: FSU: 26 - FLA: 27 (53)
FLA Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
FSU Travel: 129 miles
Gators (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 27 - 13 (36 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-45.555.5
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-8.5
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.5
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-11.5
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-18.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-20
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson-1.5
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-27
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-8.5
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+0.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+8
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+6.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-6
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+7.5
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+2.5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-0.5

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#8 (.5)43% (76)5445% (63)3.22 (45)29636% (109)2605.5 (13)#31 (.01)37% (50)1037% (51)37% (46)2.5 (34)37.511
FLA#91 (.13)45% (56)2751% (33)3.41 (32)13742% (77)2533.89 (72)#27 (-)32% (18)12.727% (7)38% (55)2.36 (29)53.321
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense2545442.6%5.51255562962605.973%27%45%36%10%.5
FLA Defense312.7932.1%2.361 - - - - - 51%49%27%38%15%-
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense2101036.6%2.51 - - - - - 44%56%37%37%22%.01
FLA Offense32735.545.5%3.892233911372534.340%59%51%42%16%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State231:1024.558%100%3.537.51183032.5
Florida335:2823.340%100%653.3213.30.3030.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense273% (4)45% (63)50295.55.99 (17).36 (19)3.22 (45)64% (99)9% (73)1.43 (9)
FLA Defense351% (78)27% (7) - - - - -.21 (6)2.01 (11)63% (43)8% (96)0.9 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense244% (31)37% (51) - - - - -.01 (45)2.96 (87)43% (10)15% (17)0.78 (31)
FLA Offense340% (125)51% (33)32137.34.31 (127).21 (45)3.41 (32)100% (1)10% (88)0.83 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense227% (133)36% (109)12.51726015.320.86 (34)0 (1).85 (3)3.4 (1)28% (43)35% (51).72 (15)1% (2)2.8 (3)
FLA Defense349% (68)38% (55) - - - - - - 1 (87).22 (68)1.5 (59)35% (46)20% (27).18 (52)6% (56)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense256% (111)37% (46) - - - - - - 2 (56).04 (26)1.6 (95)33% (62)23% (35).12 (35)7% (34)2.6 (128)
FLA Offense359% (12)42% (77)27.739.3253.36.49.27 (23)6 (132).13 (107)1.4 (106)30% (60)31% (72).12 (114)6% (92)1.8 (93)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 28.15 #15
Florida State's Offense Rating: 23.39 #25
Florida State's Defense Rating: -4.76 #9
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45% #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3 #32
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #52
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #22

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 28.15   Florida: 20.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 11.3   Florida: 11.6




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 20.295 #18
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Florida's Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 54 PPG
Offense on Road: 54
Defense: 10 PPG
Defense on Road: 10

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 27
Florida State 26


Total Points: 53

Florida Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.5
Defense: 12.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 9

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Florida State11Florida31FloridaFlorida -17.5Florida45.5Under
202311/25Florida15Florida State24Florida StateFlorida State -6Florida State51.0Under
202211/25Florida State45Florida38Florida StateFlorida State -10Florida58.5Over
202111/27Florida24Florida State21FloridaFlorida -4Florida State58.5Under
201911/30Florida40Florida State17FloridaFlorida -16.5Florida55.0Over
201811/24Florida State14Florida41FloridaFlorida -8.5Florida52.0Over
201711/25Florida22Florida State38Florida StateFlorida State -4.5Florida State43.0Over
201611/26Florida State31Florida13Florida StateFlorida State -5Florida State47.0Under
201511/28Florida2Florida State27Florida StateFlorida -3Florida State44.0Under
201411/29Florida State24Florida19Florida StateFlorida State -10Florida0
201311/30Florida7Florida State37Florida StateFlorida State -26Florida State0
201211/24Florida State26Florida37Florida
201111/26Florida7Florida State21Florida State
201011/27Florida State31Florida7Florida State
200911/28Florida37Florida State10Florida
200811/29Florida State15Florida45Florida
200711/24Florida45Florida State12Florida
200611/25Florida State14Florida21Florida
200511/26Florida34Florida State7Florida
200411/20Florida State13Florida20Florida
200311/29Florida34Florida State38Florida State
200111/17Florida37Florida State13Florida
200011/17Florida State30Florida7Florida State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1254 Overs
Florida State1165 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 122 - 92 - 40 - 5
Road Teams12 - 119 - 25 - 04 - 2

(#15) Florida State Info
Power Rating: 28.15 #15
Offense Rating: 23.39 #25
Defense Rating: -4.76 #9
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3 #32
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #52
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #22
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45% #17
Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3

Team Profile
Option Offense 73%, Pass: 27%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.5 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 36%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 37%
Good in Scoring Position 2.5 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Florida State has lost 9 straight
Florida State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Florida State Notes
(8/30) Def great vs Bama, held 6-17 3rd, 2-5 4th downs
(8/16) S. Hussey kicked off team after fight w/ coach
(7/18) Entire staff/roster to raise floor, save jobs
(7/13) Watch Fr RB Kromah, RBs talent but ? prod
(7/13) OC Malzahn interesting, DC White good (3-3-5)
(6/19) Spring was a wash on Off w/ so many injuries
(5/31) 8 win ceiling, lower & fan interest could plummet
(5/31) Def depth key, lack stars, DT Jackson has tools
(5/31) OL 4/5 starters & 80% overall exp via 6 portals
(5/31) WRs Robinson(USC) big add, depth a huge ?

Florida State Highlights
Florida State is Undefeated vs Spread
Florida State in Undefeated

Florida State offense is explosive (#1)
Florida State offense is good in red zone (#13)
Florida State offense is good on 3rd downs
Florida State Front 7 is disruptive (#17)
Florida State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Florida State commits very few Penalties (#1)

Florida State Deficiencies
Florida State pass game is really bad (#109)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFLAFSU
OverallOver#19#45
OffenseOff#44#35
DefenseDef#15#64
Special TeamsST#61#82
PassingPass#50#26
RushingRush#76#18
Run BlockRBLK#22#94
Pass BlockPBLK#4#6
Route RunningWR Rt#57#42
TacklingTkl#14#100
Run DefenseR Def#3#15
Pass Rush DefPRush#80#81
Coverage DefCov#35#91

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Florida State last year (31-11)
Florida State beat Florida in 2023 (24-15)
Florida State beat Florida in 2022 (45-38)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FSU | FLA
Depth Chart: FSU | FLA
Rosters: FSU | FLA
(#18) Florida Info
Power Rating: 20.295 #18
Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 32%
Good in Scoring Position 2.36 PPO
Great Run Def Success 27%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Florida has lost 10 straight
Florida has lost 5 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida Notes
(9/7) Allowed 18 TFL through two games, Off a mess
(8/20) QB2 uncertain, but massive drop off either way
(8/13) Lagway health an issue, missing camp w/ others.
(6/30) DT Banks game wrecker, top 10 PFF w/ DE Sapp
(6/6) DL a top 5 unit via PFF, front line + depth
(6/6) OL 2 starters, 2 w/ exp. PFF rates at top 5 OL
(5/23) Safety duo of Thorton & Castell a top unit in CFB
(5/6) Proj starting CB D Johnson arrested (serious)
(5/1) Fr WR D Wilson dominated spring ball, will play
(4/4) OT Jake Slaughter the top T via PFF

Florida Highlights
Florida has a really good defense (#18)
Florida defense is really good in red zone (#29)
Florida has a good run defense (#7)
Florida Defensive Line is very good (#11)

Florida Deficiencies
Florida has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Florida throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Florida offense is not Explosive (#103)
Florida does not Sack the QB (#130)


  
Florida State's OC Gus Malzahn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)172568%3893015.6
Kevin Sperry4580%612012.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micahi Danzy4109227.353
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)208514.314
Samuel Singleton482120.553
Ousmane Kromah126805.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)7191227.382
Jaylin Lucas371023.764
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)256128.053
Ousmane Kromah250125.043

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Tony White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II111001
Justin Cryer101000
Ashlynd Barker70002
Ja'Bril Rawls60001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stefon Thompson (Tr)31100
Daniel Lyons32120
Tyeland Coleman21100
Deamontae Diggs (Tr)11100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashlynd Barker70002
Earl Little II111001
Blake Nichelson52011

Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway7110071%629566.3
Tramell Jones Jr.121867%131207.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh3724316.626
Ja'Kobi Jackson205903.013
D.J. Lagway183101.710
Anthony Rubio52705.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III16197012.341
Hayden Hansen1311719.028
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)771110.118
Eugene Wilson146624.732

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham172022
Jaden Robinson132001
Brendan Bett (Tr)121010
George Gumbs103020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp82100
Myles Graham172022
Titus Bullard10000
Javion Toombs20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton90013
Myles Graham172022
Devin Moore60002