Virginia at California - 2025 Matchup Preview
Virginia logo   Virginia Cavaliers at California Golden Bears  California logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (3:45 PM EDT)
Virginia -6.5 (52.5) (-230)  Open: -4.0
Virginia 31 - California: 21  (ACC)

 
Cavaliers (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
UVA 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Virginia -12  (SP+ UVA -14.5)

Projected Score: UVA: 32 - CAL: 20 (52)
UVA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UVA Travel: 2360 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.557.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+3.053.0L 31 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.554.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-16.548.5W 48 - 20OY
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+7.059.5W 46 - 38OY
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+6.559.5W 30 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-16.556.5W 22 - 20UN
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina-12.551.5W 17 - 16UN
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California-6.552.5W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-7.048.5L 9 - 16UN
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke+5.559.5W 34 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-9.553.5W 27 - 7UY
Sat 12/6 Virginia vs Duke-3.558.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 12/27 Virginia vs Missouri+4.043.5W 13 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)30.843% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)19.644% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)25.340% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)27.241% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1230.828.640%3.471.6193621332293.748%52%43%37%18%.13
CAL Defense1327.224.340.4%3.231.7 - - - - - 47%53%41%40%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1219.623.242.6%4.041.3 - - - - - 49%50%44%42%15%.27
CAL Offense1325.327.241.5%3.070.8213811222593.641%58%40%43%18%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1229:5319.334%52%5.245.31.61.34.81.8029.5
California1330:3620.737%44%7.459.70.81.75.42.5229.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1248% (84)43% (77)35.9132.83.714 (98).16 (50)3.29 (25)73% (77)11% (96)0.91 (92)
CAL Defense1347% (28)41% (53) - - - - .08 (44)2.99 (65)86% (129)10% (72)0.91 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1249% (53)44% (77) - - - - .17 (91)3.29 (112)77% (89)9% (104)0.99 (69)
CAL Offense1341% (121)40% (104)33.7122.23.617 (84).07 (99)2.68 (120)69% (98)13% (126)1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1252% (52)37% (113)20.533.42296.911.216 (87)14 (115).11 (122)1.5 (86)33% (101)26% (115).17 (120)7% (100)1.7 (129)
CAL Defense1353% (103)40% (67) - - - - - - 17 (5).21 (52)1.7 (92)33% (44)30% (59).39 (102)8% (12)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1250% (83)42% (77) - - - - - - 9 (76).37 (121)1.6 (84)32% (67)32% (84).43 (110)6% (67)2.1 (82)
CAL Offense1358% (14)43% (57)23.235.7258.67.311.116 (87)7 (26).25 (72)1.4 (126)36% (128)30% (85).36 (58)5% (23)2.2 (23)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 15.98  #18
Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.24  #26
Virginia's Defense Rating: 4.26  #19
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1  #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 15.98   California: 1.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 11.1   California: -3.2




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.4  #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12  #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #77
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #72

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 32
California 20


Projected Total Points: 52
California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01California21Virginia31Virginia -6.5Virginia52.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California000 Overs
Virginia111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#18) UVA at (#63) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUVACAL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #18 #63
SP+SP+ #31 #80
Perf GradeGrade #20 #87
OffenseOff #50 #84
DefenseDef #12 #62
Spec TeamsST #51 #122
TalentTal #21 #55
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #88
Virginia Notes
(11/26) Star LB Kam Robinson out for season (ACL)
(11/16) Killed Duke, Hoos incredible story. ACC threat
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/25) Box score L vs NC. Great story, but badly overrated
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
Virginia Injury Report
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffCAL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #50 #62
SuccessSuc #103 #52
ExplosiveExp #105 #88
PPAPPA #102 #48
PowerPwr #26 #64
SP+SP+ #56 #72
Pts POPPO #106 #20
HavocHav #109 #42
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #52 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #53
Run ExplRExp #92 #37
PPAExp #50 #44
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLY #25 #65
Stuff RateStuff #6 #71
TackleTak -  #109
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #45 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #113 #67
Pass ExplPExl #86 #92
PPAExp #122 #52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #90 #77
F7 HavocF7 #96 #72
DB HavocDB #100 #12
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffUVA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #12
SuccessSuc #88 #80
ExplosiveExp #52 #87
PPAPPA #79 #116
PowerPwr #61 #19
SP+SP+ #77 #19
Pts POPPO #125 #94
HavocHav #102 #91
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #124 #33
Run SuccessRSuc #104 #77
Run ExplRExp #22 #69
PPAExp #99 #91
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #112
Stuff RateStuff #114 #121
TackleTak -  #37
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #26 #10
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #77
Pass ExplPExl #126 #84
PPAExp #72 #121
Pass Block/RushP Blk #82 #31
F7 HavocF7 #126 #104
DB HavocDB #23 #67
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Virginia 6.5 (52.5)
Virginia won at California this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat California last year (31-21)

  
UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)28243665%30001696.9
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)305258%339116.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)2221062144.878
Harrison Waylee (Tr)11855664.797
Chandler Morris (Tr)6424553.842
Xavier Brown5124114.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trell Harris59847514.475
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)46564112.337
Cameron Ross53543210.246
J'mari Taylor (Tr)4325315.925

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
James Jackson663053
Kamren Robinson644221
Maddox Marcellus (Tr)493211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)369791
Mitchell Melton (Tr)4510573
Fisher Camac (Tr)446424
Jacob Holmes (Tr)336340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Karnley (Tr)262008
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
Christian Charles (Tr)431026

CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34461897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102269.641
Trond Grizzell55788114.335
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018