Florida State at Stanford - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at Stanford CardinalStanford logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -17.5 (52.5) (-1000)  Open: -16.5
Stanford Stadium - Stanford, CA  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (3 - 3) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 44 - 23 (38 - 46 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#48)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
FSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -20  (SP+ FSU -22)

Projected Score: FSU: 39 - STAN: 19 (59)
FSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
FSU Travel: 2208 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Cardinal (2 - 4) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Frank Reich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (30 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.1 - 8.9 (#124)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-44.556.5W 66 - 10OY
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-7.059.5L 38 - 46ON
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.554.5L 22 - 28UN
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-10.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-17.552.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-10
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+4.5
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-23
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-5.5
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+3.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.552.5
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+36
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+18.5
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+5
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+30.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#9 (.38)50% (21)44.251% (16)3.51 (10)27548% (28)2624.86 (20)#87 (.19)42% (79)2341% (54)44% (98)3.9 (76)501.71.3
STAN#109 (.11)38% (120)18.838% (114)2.6 (116)9538% (106)2412.96 (129)#108 (.23)46% (115)30.246% (112)45% (108)3.39 (42)62.51.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense644.23849.7%4.861.7275372752625.960%40%51%48%12%.38
STAN Defense630.224.545.8%3.390.8 - - - - - 39%61%46%45%12%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense6234642.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 50%50%41%44%17%.19
STAN Offense618.83038.2%2.961.31833695241348%52%38%38%17%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State630:1926.554%73%5501.71.36.52.7029.9
Stanford630:3718.233%69%762.51.30.842123.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense660% (11)51% (16)46.5274.85.921 (3).33 (9)3.51 (10)79% (34)8% (51)1.16 (13)
STAN Defense639% (2)46% (112) - - - - .04 (40)3.06 (102)80% (114)7% (126)0.8 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense650% (74)41% (54) - - - - .06 (52)3.01 (94)71% (69)11% (33)0.82 (22)
STAN Offense648% (88)38% (114)31.794.735 (115).01 (118)2.6 (116)79% (31)11% (102)0.89 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense640% (125)48% (28)16.826.52629.915.614 (22)5 (77).46 (20)1.9 (7)30% (46)39% (16).59 (12)3% (11)2.2 (27)
STAN Defense661% (135)45% (108) - - - - - - 1 (128).35 (113)1.5 (74)33% (59)35% (118).32 (84)5% (106)1.7 (15)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense650% (66)44% (98) - - - - - - 8 (12).32 (100)1.7 (106)30% (101)31% (91).4 (107)5% (88)2.2 (115)
STAN Offense652% (49)38% (106)19.332.8240.87.312.56 (110)4 (50).23 (87)1.6 (62)32% (78)25% (112).16 (113)6% (87)1.7 (129)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 19.74  #29
Florida State's Offense Rating: 26.34  #15
Florida State's Defense Rating: 6.60  #62
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45%  #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #31
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #30
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 19.74   Stanford: -4.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 11.6   Stanford: -10.2




Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -4.26  #85
Stanford's Offense Rating: 5.99  #96
Stanford's Defense Rating: 9.31  #75
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #108
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #106
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 44.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 38
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 46

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 39
Stanford 19


Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida State 34
Stanford 32

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Florida State 34
Stanford 30

Total Points: 64
Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.5

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Stanford000 Overs
Florida State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#29) FSU at (#85) STAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUSTAN
Power RatePwr #29 #85
SP+SP+ #31 #108
Perf GradeGrade #27 #116
OffenseOff #17 #87
DefenseDef #50 #130
Spec TeamsST #60 #26
TalentTal #17 #39
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #42

Florida State Notes
(10/12) Norvell w/o Jordan Travis is 7-21.
(10/11) LBs lack speed and huge liability in coverage
(10/11) Noles have lost their last 8 ACC conference games
(9/26) Tackling a huge issue vs UVA, allowed 450+ in L
(8/30) Outrushed Bama 230-87, Cast quick, efficient
(8/30) Def great vs Bama, held 6-17 3rd, 2-5 4th downs
(8/16) S. Hussey kicked off team after fight w/ coach
(7/18) Entire staff/roster to raise floor, save jobs
(7/13) Watch Fr RB Kromah, RBs talent but ? prod
(7/13) OC Malzahn interesting, DC White good (3-3-5)
(6/19) Spring was a wash on Off w/ so many injuries

Stanford Notes
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
(6/14) QB Brown, Rizk (UCF) some exp, #1 Daniels left
(5/2) TE Roush a reliable target, 70 catches past 2 yrs
(4/1) New HC Reich a one year interim HC
(3/25) HC Taylor fired by Luck for behavior issues
Florida State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
FSU OffSTAN Def
Perf GradePerf #17 #130
SuccessSuc #21 #115
ExplosiveExp #5 #66
PPAPPA #9 #108
PowerPwr #15 #75
SP+SP+ #30 #99
Pts POPPO #20 #42
HavocHav #20 #124
Florida State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
FSU OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #4 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #112
Run ExplRExp #13 #15
PPAExp #9 #40
Run BlockR Blk #56 -
OL YdsOLY #10 #102
Stuff RateStuff #6 #109
TackleTak -  #115
Florida State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
FSU OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #14 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #108
Pass ExplPExl #7 #74
PPAExp #20 #113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #58 #107
F7 HavocF7 #51 #126
DB HavocDB #11 #106
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatSTAN OffFSU Def
Perf GradePerf #87 #50
SuccessSuc #120 #79
ExplosiveExp #67 #76
PPAPPA #109 #87
PowerPwr #96 #62
SP+SP+ #106 #41
Pts POPPO #129 #76
HavocHav #100 #51
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #62 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #54
Run ExplRExp #102 #22
PPAExp #118 #52
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #94
Stuff RateStuff #83 #77
TackleTak -  #71
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatSTAN OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #101 #94
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #98
Pass ExplPExl #62 #106
PPAExp #87 #100
Pass Block/RushP Blk #111 #104
F7 HavocF7 #102 #33
DB HavocDB #87 #88
Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)8613862%1365959.9
Kevin Sperry81080%1252012.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)6735265.340
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)6528644.422
Ousmane Kromah4125206.123
Micahi Danzy8168321.064
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)25443317.782
Micahi Danzy16330220.665
Lawayne McCoy8128116.034
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)7101114.453

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II401001
Ja'Bril Rawls352001
Justin Cryer264120
Elijah Herring (Tr)212110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashlynd Barker183302
Mandrell Desir123211
Stefon Thompson (Tr)122200
Daniel Lyons123220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashlynd Barker183302
Earl Little II401001
Jamari Howard10001

STAN's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)11619659%1445647.4
Micah Ford010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford9140034.475
Cole Tabb3919415.017
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Sedrick Irvin155213.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams36412111.436
Bryce Farrell19381120.168
Sam Roush18219212.269
Caden High (Tr)15190012.734

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Jaivion Green241003
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson144331
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green241003
Matt Rose474112
Collin Wright220002