Florida State at Stanford - 2025 Matchup Preview
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Florida State Seminoles at Stanford Cardinal

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Saturday, October 18th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -17.5 (55.5) (-850)  Open: -16.5
Stanford 20 - Florida State: 13  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
FSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -10  (SP+ FSU -19)

Projected Score: FSU: 32 - STAN: 22 (53)
FSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
FSU Travel: 2208 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Cardinal (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (6 - 18)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (25 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-44.556.5W 66 - 10OY
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-7.059.5L 38 - 46ON
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.554.5L 22 - 28UN
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-10.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-17.555.5L 13 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-12.550.5W 42 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+1.556.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-13.553.5W 34 - 14UY
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-7.058.5L 11 - 21UN
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida-1.548.5L 21 - 40ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.555.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+28.545.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5L 20 - 35ON
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+8.541.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+4.547.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+32.550.5L 20 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)3340% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2242% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)18.841% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)29.245% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
STAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense123318.635.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06
STAN Defense1229.22646.6%4.531.3 - - - - - 43%57%45%48%14%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122230.240.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
STAN Offense1218.825.240.1%3.671.8193251341913.750%50%41%39%22%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Stanford1231:4118.535%56%5.4491.81.35.32.1228.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)
STAN Defense1243% (4)45% (92) - - - - .11 (62)2.92 (53)68% (39)10% (58)0.99 (70)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
STAN Offense1250% (71)41% (95)36.3133.83.711 (116).08 (97)2.72 (116)66% (111)15% (131)1.01 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)
STAN Defense1257% (131)48% (124) - - - - - - 9 (76).4 (125)1.6 (69)30% (96)34% (113).33 (85)4% (129)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
STAN Offense1250% (64)39% (98)18.730.8191.36.210.318 (68)17 (127).13 (111)1.5 (120)32% (82)26% (116).22 (106)7% (102)2.1 (29)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 7.16  #49
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.67  #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.51  #59
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45%  #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.16   Stanford: -2.995

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.2   Stanford: -11.8




Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -2.995  #66
Stanford's Offense Rating: 9.61  #90
Stanford's Defense Rating: 8.80  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8  #112
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4  #117
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 32
Stanford 22


Projected Total Points: 53
Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.2
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Stanford20Florida State13Florida State -17.5Stanford55.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Stanford110 Overs
Florida State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#49) FSU at (#66) STAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUSTAN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #49 #66
SP+SP+ #41 #112
Perf GradeGrade #28 #120
OffenseOff #21 #121
DefenseDef #65 #109
Spec TeamsST #41 #36
TalentTal #17 #39
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #42
Florida State Notes
(12/16) FSU looks like they aren't serious about 2026
(11/23) Norvell will return in '26. Fund road slate now
(11/22) A straight 0-8 in road ACC games past 2 years
(10/20) Rumors sound toxic, player leadership void
(10/19) Norvell lost 4 straight, 4 times now. 1-11 ACC run
(10/19) OG'd Stanford by 150, still lost for the 4th straight time
(10/19) Castellanos knocked out of Stanford game, dirty hit
(10/12) Norvell w/o Jordan Travis is 7-21.
(10/11) LBs lack speed and huge liability in coverage
(10/11) Noles have lost their last 8 ACC conference games
(9/26) Tackling a huge issue vs UVA, allowed 450+ in L
(8/30) Outrushed Bama 230-87, Cast quick, efficient
Florida State Injury Report
Stanford Notes
(11/28) Hired HC Tavita Pritchard, was QBC for Wash/NFL
(11/28) Great W over Cal, run defense great. Off was enough
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/22) QB Gulbranson inj vs FSU, ? for Miami game
(10/19) Huge W vs FSU, box score L but held on. 3-2 run now
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
Stanford Injury Report
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffSTAN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #21 #109
SuccessSuc #128 #119
ExplosiveExp #58 #103
PPAPPA #125 #120
PowerPwr #30 #36
SP+SP+ #54 #78
Pts POPPO #131 #124
HavocHav #129 #94
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #28 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #92
Run ExplRExp #118 #70
PPAExp #101 #62
Run BlockR Blk #36 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #53
Stuff RateStuff #85 #29
TackleTak -  #116
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #9 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #130 #124
Pass ExplPExl #20 #69
PPAExp #130 #125
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #14 #119
F7 HavocF7 #130 #58
DB HavocDB #62 #129
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSTAN OffFSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #121 #65
SuccessSuc #101 #56
ExplosiveExp #98 #114
PPAPPA #114 #112
PowerPwr #90 #59
SP+SP+ #117 #38
Pts POPPO #92 #46
HavocHav #132 #98
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #73 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #95 #62
Run ExplRExp #52 #114
PPAExp #97 #109
Run BlockR Blk #120 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #81
Stuff RateStuff #127 #88
TackleTak -  #44
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSTAN OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #125 #106
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #52
Pass ExplPExl #120 #120
PPAExp #111 #110
Pass Block/RushP Blk #127 #93
F7 HavocF7 #131 #77
DB HavocDB #102 #116
Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Florida State 17.5 (55.5)
Stanford won vs Florida State this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
Stanford beat Florida State last year (20-13)

  
FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)18030958%27601598.9
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)13755794.126
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)10948684.540
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Lawayne McCoy27403314.934
Randy Pittman (Tr)2320829.035

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II762002
Ashlynd Barker485412
Darrell Jackson442110
Blake Nichelson437111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Ashlynd Barker485412
Stefon Thompson (Tr)374410
Daniel Lyons264240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edwin Joseph374005
Earl Little II762002
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)421002

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)14826057%18139107.0
Elijah Brown7412758%829426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford14564344.475
Cole Tabb11444533.928
Sedrick Irvin4111812.915
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams60757612.636
Sam Roush49545211.169
Bryce Farrell28447216.068
Caden High (Tr)37414111.234

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose1068333
Scotty Edwards544311
Jahsiah Galvan502012
Jaivion Green383016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson336461
Matt Rose1068333
Ernest Cooper235301
Scotty Edwards544311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green383016
Brandon Nicholson271106
Collin Wright331004