William & Mary at Virginia - 2025 Matchup Preview
William & Mary logo William & Mary Tribe at Virginia CavaliersVirginia logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Virginia -30.5 (54.5) (-6500)  Open: 0.0
Virginia 55 - William & Mary: 16

 
Tribe (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 16 - 55 (16 - 55 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Virginia -17.5  (SP+ UVA -12)
UVA Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
Cavaliers (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
 
William & Mary's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 William & Mary at Virginia+30.554.5L 16 - 55ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for William & Mary's Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.557.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+3.053.0L 31 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.554.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-16.548.5W 48 - 20OY
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+7.059.5W 46 - 38OY
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+6.559.5W 30 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-16.556.5W 22 - 20UN
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina-12.551.5W 17 - 16UN
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California-6.552.5W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-7.048.5L 9 - 16UN
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke+5.559.5W 34 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-9.553.5W 27 - 7UY
Sat 12/6 Virginia vs Duke-3.558.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 12/27 Virginia vs Missouri+4.043.5W 13 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
W&M0%160%000%000%550%0%0000
UVA#64 (.18)42% (82)30.844% (66)3.04 (51)17241% (79)2253.49 (91)#18 (.06)37% (21)19.639% (30)37% (25)3.01 (19)420.91.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
W&M0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
W&M Offense116160%00000000%0%0%0%0%
UVA Defense1419.617.737.4%3.011.4 - - - - - 51%47%39%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
W&M Defense155550%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
UVA Offense1430.836.441.6%3.490.9203971722254.850%49%44%41%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
William & Mary10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Virginia1429:3120.349%46%5420.91.44.62.1330.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
W&M Offense10%0%000000%0%0
UVA Defense1451% (78)39% (30) - - - - .04 (31)2.75 (43)71% (69)9% (75)0.92 (47)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
W&M Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
UVA Offense1450% (65)44% (66)36172.14.828 (11).19 (34)3.04 (51)81% (13)8% (25)1.06 (33)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
W&M Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
UVA Defense1447% (50)37% (25) - - - - - - 13 (38).15 (29)1.5 (44)32% (60)23% (3).11 (8)9% (6)1.9 (25)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
W&M Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
UVA Offense1449% (73)41% (79)20.732.42256.910.918 (50)10 (60).24 (74)1.5 (74)32% (84)33% (34).36 (47)6% (68)1.9 (111)

William & Mary's Power Ratings
William & Mary's Power Rating: NR
William & Mary's Offense Rating: NR
William & Mary's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
William & Mary's 2025 Expected Record: -
William & Mary's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
William & Mary's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
William & Mary's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average CAA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
William & Mary:    Virginia: 17.305

SP+ Ratings Matchup
William & Mary:    Virginia: 12.1




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 17.305  #25
Virginia's Offense Rating: 16.28  #32
Virginia's Defense Rating: -1.23  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1  #28
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1  #49
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #23

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


William & Mary Scoring
Offense: 16 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 55 PPG
Defense on Road: 55

William & Mary's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 37
William & Mary 19

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 36
William & Mary 17

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Virginia 44
William & Mary 17

Total Points: 61
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Virginia55William & Mary16Virginia -30.5Virginia54.5Over
202310/07Virginia27William & Mary13Virginia -10Virginia42.0Under
202109/04Virginia43William & Mary0Virginia -30.5Virginia52.5Under
201909/06Virginia52William & Mary17Virginia -32.5Virginia52.5Over
201709/02Virginia28William & Mary10Virginia -28William & Mary0
201509/19Virginia35William & Mary29Virginia -24William & Mary0
201109/03Virginia40William & Mary3
200909/05Virginia14William & Mary26
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia742 Overs
William & Mary122 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 14 - 24 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 72 - 40 - 02 - 4

(#NR) W&M at (#25) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatW&MUVA
Power RatePwrNR #25
SP+SP+NR #28
Perf GradeGradeNR #16
OffenseOffNR #46
DefenseDefNR #15
Spec TeamsSTNR #33
TalentTalNR #21
Blue ChipsBC%NR #65
Virginia Notes
(11/26) Star LB Kam Robinson out for season (ACL)
(11/16) Killed Duke, Hoos incredible story. ACC threat
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/25) Box score L vs NC. Great story, but badly overrated
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
Virginia Injury Report
William & Mary on Offense
CategoryCat
W&M OffUVA Def
Perf GradePerfNR #15
SuccessSucNR #21
ExplosiveExpNR #35
PPAPPANR #18
PowerPwrNR #27
SP+SP+NR #23
Pts POPPONR #19
HavocHavNR #23
William & Mary Run Game
CategoryCat
W&M OffUVA Def
Run GameRunNR #39
Run SuccessRSucNR #30
Run ExplRExpNR #47
PPAExpNR #31
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #43
Stuff RateStuffNR #70
TackleTak -  #39
William & Mary Pass Game
CategoryCat
W&M OffUVA Def
Pass GamePassNR #18
Pass SuccessPSucNR #25
Pass ExplPExlNR #44
PPAExpNR #29
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #32
F7 HavocF7NR #75
DB HavocDBNR #6
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffW&M Def
Perf GradePerf #46NR
SuccessSuc #82NR
ExplosiveExp #45NR
PPAPPA #64NR
PowerPwr #32NR
SP+SP+ #49NR
Pts POPPO #91NR
HavocHav #38NR
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffW&M Def
Run GameRun #58NR
Run SuccessRSuc #66NR
Run ExplRExp #33NR
PPAExp #34NR
Run BlockR Blk #44 -
OL YdsOLY #51NR
Stuff RateStuff #35NR
TackleTak - NR
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffW&M Def
Pass GamePass #42NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #79NR
Pass ExplPExl #74NR
PPAExp #74NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78NR
F7 HavocF7 #25NR
DB HavocDB #68NR
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

W&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 80°
Rematch from Week 3
Virginia -30.5 (54.5)
Virginia won vs William & Mary this year (55-16)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat William & Mary in 2023 (27-13)

  
W&M's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Hughes20430866%23302037.6
Noah Brannock142752%188017.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Raymond14978185.267
Tyler Hughes155670114.366
Tariq Sims (Tr)6322303.535
Josh Miller184812.76
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deven Thompson27560620.779
Jackson Blee25311312.463
Isaiah Lemmond26268010.326
Armon Wright24257210.775

View William & Mary's Full Roster

W&M's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Banbury (Tr)90001
Ethan Yip60002
Harrison Johnson60000
Bryce Barnes60000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Banbury (Tr)90001
Justin Krueger30000
Jayden Platt10000
Trevon Cannon10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Yip60002
Luke Banbury (Tr)90001
David Roulley31000

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)28243665%30001696.9
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)305258%339116.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)2221062144.878
Harrison Waylee (Tr)11855664.797
Chandler Morris (Tr)6424553.842
Xavier Brown5124114.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trell Harris59847514.475
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)46564112.337
Cameron Ross53543210.246
J'mari Taylor (Tr)4325315.925

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
James Jackson663053
Kamren Robinson644221
Maddox Marcellus (Tr)493211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)369791
Mitchell Melton (Tr)4510573
Fisher Camac (Tr)446424
Jacob Holmes (Tr)336340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Karnley (Tr)262008
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
Christian Charles (Tr)431026