Stanford at Virginia - 2025 Matchup Preview
Stanford logo Stanford Cardinal at Virginia CavaliersVirginia logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Virginia -16.5 (48.5) (-750)  Open: -14.5
Virginia 48 - Stanford: 20  (ACC)

 
Cardinal (2 - 4) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Frank Reich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (13 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.1 - 8.9 (#124)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
UVA 2nd straight Home Game
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
STAN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Virginia -21  (SP+ UVA -17)

Projected Score: STAN: 16 - UVA: 37 (52)
UVA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
STAN Travel: 2363 miles, 3 hrs behind
Cavaliers (5 - 1) (5 - 1 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 43 - 24 (49 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.8 - 2.2 (#14)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.552.5
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+36
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+18.5
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+5
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+30.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.557.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+3.053.0L 31 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.554.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-16.548.5W 48 - 20OY
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+7.059.5W 46 - 38OY
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+6.559.5W 30 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-17.556.5
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina-15
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California-8.5
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-6
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-19

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#109 (.11)38% (120)18.838% (114)2.6 (116)9538% (106)2412.96 (129)#108 (.23)46% (115)30.246% (112)45% (108)3.39 (42)62.51.30.8
UVA#12 (.36)48% (31)4349% (25)3.43 (15)22046% (42)2724.68 (27)#84 (.19)43% (84)23.844% (89)42% (73)4.11 (94)42.20.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)43% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)44% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Offense618.813.338.2%2.961.31833695241348%52%38%38%17%.11
UVA Defense623.820.342.6%4.111.5 - - - - - 49%51%44%42%18%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Defense630.23345.8%3.390.8 - - - - - 39%61%46%45%12%.23
UVA Offense64349.347.5%4.680.8254922202725.451%49%49%46%11%.36

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stanford630:3718.233%69%762.51.30.842123.7
Virginia633:0024.554%60%5.542.20.81.55.32.7231.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Offense648% (88)38% (114)31.794.735 (115).01 (118)2.6 (116)79% (31)11% (102)0.89 (102)
UVA Defense649% (62)44% (89) - - - - .13 (89)2.84 (62)76% (96)10% (61)0.98 (81)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Defense639% (2)46% (112) - - - - .04 (40)3.06 (102)80% (114)7% (126)0.8 (15)
UVA Offense651% (71)49% (25)41220.35.418 (13).34 (7)3.43 (15)83% (17)7% (13)1.14 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Offense652% (49)38% (106)19.332.8240.87.312.56 (110)4 (50).23 (87)1.6 (62)32% (78)25% (112).16 (113)6% (87)1.7 (129)
UVA Defense651% (79)42% (73) - - - - - - 4 (62).25 (71)1.6 (94)32% (71)26% (33).19 (36)8% (14)1.9 (43)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Defense661% (135)45% (108) - - - - - - 1 (128).35 (113)1.5 (74)33% (59)35% (118).32 (84)5% (106)1.7 (15)
UVA Offense649% (66)46% (42)2435.5271.77.711.312 (39)5 (77).4 (32)1.6 (52)31% (71)39% (18).54 (22)5% (40)1.8 (106)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -3.32  #85
Stanford's Offense Rating: 5.99  #96
Stanford's Defense Rating: 9.31  #75
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #108
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #106
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -3.32   Virginia: 14.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -10.2   Virginia: 6.9




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 14.2  #39
Virginia's Offense Rating: 24.22  #18
Virginia's Defense Rating: 7.72  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 9.8 - 2.2
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9  #46
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #36
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2  #63

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.3
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 37
Stanford 16


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 36
Stanford 19

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Virginia 39
Stanford 19

Total Points: 58
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 43 PPG
Offense at Home: 49.3
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Virginia48Stanford20Virginia -16.5Virginia48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia111 Overs
Stanford000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#85) STAN at (#39) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTANUVA
Power RatePwr #85 #39
SP+SP+ #108 #46
Perf GradeGrade #116 #21
OffenseOff #87 #21
DefenseDef #130 #42
Spec TeamsST #26 #42
TalentTal #39 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #65

Stanford Notes
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
(6/14) QB Brown, Rizk (UCF) some exp, #1 Daniels left
(5/2) TE Roush a reliable target, 70 catches past 2 yrs
(4/1) New HC Reich a one year interim HC
(3/25) HC Taylor fired by Luck for behavior issues

Virginia Notes
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
(5/29) Off could jump w/ better OL, good RB, QB + WR
(5/29) OL has top 20 exp but 57% via portals.
(5/29) WR rebuild, top 3 are portals, better depth TY
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUVA Def
Perf GradePerf #87 #42
SuccessSuc #120 #84
ExplosiveExp #67 #94
PPAPPA #109 #84
PowerPwr #96 #67
SP+SP+ #106 #63
Pts POPPO #129 #94
HavocHav #100 #30
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #62 #56
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #89
Run ExplRExp #102 #81
PPAExp #118 #89
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #62
Stuff RateStuff #83 #64
TackleTak -  #52
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #101 #60
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #73
Pass ExplPExl #62 #94
PPAExp #87 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #111 #36
F7 HavocF7 #102 #61
DB HavocDB #87 #14
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUVA OffSTAN Def
Perf GradePerf #21 #130
SuccessSuc #31 #115
ExplosiveExp #23 #66
PPAPPA #12 #108
PowerPwr #18 #75
SP+SP+ #36 #99
Pts POPPO #27 #42
HavocHav #18 #124
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UVA OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #16 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #112
Run ExplRExp #19 #15
PPAExp #7 #40
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #15 #102
Stuff RateStuff #13 #109
TackleTak -  #115
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUVA OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #30 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #42 #108
Pass ExplPExl #52 #74
PPAExp #32 #113
Pass Block/RushP Blk #79 #107
F7 HavocF7 #13 #126
DB HavocDB #40 #106
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 73°
Rematch from Week 4
Virginia -16.5 (48.5)
Virginia won vs Stanford this year (48-20)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
STAN's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)11619659%1445647.4
Micah Ford010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford9140034.475
Cole Tabb3919415.017
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Sedrick Irvin155213.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams36412111.436
Bryce Farrell19381120.168
Sam Roush18219212.269
Caden High (Tr)15190012.734

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Jaivion Green241003
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson144331
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green241003
Matt Rose474112
Collin Wright220002

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)13018670%14281147.7
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)122450%194118.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)9146585.166
Xavier Brown4822714.720
Harrison Waylee (Tr)3222347.097
Chandler Morris (Tr)2917646.142
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trell Harris26384314.875
Cameron Ross28329211.846
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)21233111.125
Dakota Twitty11129011.726

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Neal (Tr)302114
Kamren Robinson272120
James Jackson250011
Mitchell Melton (Tr)247321
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)135541
Mitchell Melton (Tr)247321
Jason Hammond123200
Billy Koudelka41110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Neal (Tr)302114
Donavon Platt (Tr)180003
Corey Costner90002