Stanford at Virginia - 2025 Matchup Preview
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Stanford Cardinal at Virginia Cavaliers

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Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Virginia -16.5 (48.5) (-750)  Open: -14.5
Virginia 48 - Stanford: 20  (ACC)

 
Cardinal (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (6 - 18)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (13 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
UVA 2nd straight Home Game
UVA is playing their 4th straight game
STAN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Virginia -21.5  (SP+ UVA -23)

Projected Score: STAN: 14 - UVA: 35 (49)
UVA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
STAN Travel: 2363 miles, 3 hrs behind
Cavaliers (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.555.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+28.545.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5L 20 - 35ON
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+8.541.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+4.547.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+32.550.5L 20 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.557.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State+3.053.0L 31 - 35ON
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary-30.554.5W 55 - 16OY
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford-16.548.5W 48 - 20OY
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State+7.059.5W 46 - 38OY
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville+6.559.5W 30 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State-16.556.5W 22 - 20UN
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina-12.551.5W 17 - 16UN
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California-6.552.5W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest-7.048.5L 9 - 16UN
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke+5.559.5W 34 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech-9.553.5W 27 - 7UY
Sat 12/6 Virginia vs Duke-3.558.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 12/27 Virginia vs Missouri+4.043.5W 13 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)18.841% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)29.245% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)30.843% (77)3.29 (25)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)19.644% (77)42% (77)4.04 (94)45.31.61.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Offense1218.812.540.1%3.671.8193251341913.750%50%41%39%22%.1
UVA Defense1219.617.742.6%4.041.3 - - - - - 49%50%44%42%15%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Defense1229.232.346.6%4.531.3 - - - - - 43%57%45%48%14%.27
UVA Offense1230.836.440%3.471.6193621332293.748%52%43%37%18%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stanford1231:4118.535%56%5.4491.81.35.32.1228.5
Virginia1229:5319.334%52%5.245.31.61.34.81.8029.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Offense1250% (71)41% (95)36.3133.83.711 (116).08 (97)2.72 (116)66% (111)15% (131)1.01 (52)
UVA Defense1249% (53)44% (77) - - - - .17 (91)3.29 (112)77% (89)9% (104)0.99 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Defense1243% (4)45% (92) - - - - .11 (62)2.92 (53)68% (39)10% (58)0.99 (70)
UVA Offense1248% (84)43% (77)35.9132.83.714 (98).16 (50)3.29 (25)73% (77)11% (96)0.91 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Offense1250% (64)39% (98)18.730.8191.36.210.318 (68)17 (127).13 (111)1.5 (120)32% (82)26% (116).22 (106)7% (102)2.1 (29)
UVA Defense1250% (83)42% (77) - - - - - - 9 (76).37 (121)1.6 (84)32% (67)32% (84).43 (110)6% (67)2.1 (82)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Defense1257% (131)48% (124) - - - - - - 9 (76).4 (125)1.6 (69)30% (96)34% (113).33 (85)4% (129)2 (51)
UVA Offense1252% (52)37% (113)20.533.42296.911.216 (87)14 (115).11 (122)1.5 (86)33% (101)26% (115).17 (120)7% (100)1.7 (129)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: 0.81  #66
Stanford's Offense Rating: 9.61  #90
Stanford's Defense Rating: 8.80  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8  #112
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4  #117
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: 0.81   Virginia: 16.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -11.8   Virginia: 11.1




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 16.04  #18
Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.24  #26
Virginia's Defense Rating: 4.26  #19
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1  #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.5
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 35
Stanford 14


Projected Total Points: 49
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Virginia48Stanford20Virginia -16.5Virginia48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia111 Overs
Stanford000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#66) STAN at (#18) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTANUVA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #66 #18
SP+SP+ #112 #31
Perf GradeGrade #120 #20
OffenseOff #121 #50
DefenseDef #109 #12
Spec TeamsST #36 #51
TalentTal #39 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #65
Stanford Notes
(11/28) Hired HC Tavita Pritchard, was QBC for Wash/NFL
(11/28) Great W over Cal, run defense great. Off was enough
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/22) QB Gulbranson inj vs FSU, ? for Miami game
(10/19) Huge W vs FSU, box score L but held on. 3-2 run now
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
Stanford Injury Report
Virginia Notes
(11/26) Star LB Kam Robinson out for season (ACL)
(11/16) Killed Duke, Hoos incredible story. ACC threat
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/25) Box score L vs NC. Great story, but badly overrated
(9/26) Huge W over FSU, Run Off good, Morris tough/clutch
(9/22) Off 3rd in CFB in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/21) Off on a tear, QB Morris playing great. Good start
(9/21) Off #'s are incredible during 3-1 start, eyes on
(8/26) 20 of 23 listed on two deep are Sr or Gr.
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(6/2) QB C. Morris (4th school) can sling it & run it
(5/29) QB Morris (N Tex) was #4 pass yds LY, Kaelin #2
Virginia Injury Report
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUVA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #121 #12
SuccessSuc #101 #80
ExplosiveExp #98 #87
PPAPPA #114 #116
PowerPwr #90 #19
SP+SP+ #117 #19
Pts POPPO #92 #94
HavocHav #132 #91
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #73 #33
Run SuccessRSuc #95 #77
Run ExplRExp #52 #69
PPAExp #97 #91
Run BlockR Blk #120 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #112
Stuff RateStuff #127 #121
TackleTak -  #37
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #125 #10
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #77
Pass ExplPExl #120 #84
PPAExp #111 #121
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #127 #31
F7 HavocF7 #131 #104
DB HavocDB #102 #67
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffSTAN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #50 #109
SuccessSuc #103 #119
ExplosiveExp #105 #103
PPAPPA #102 #120
PowerPwr #26 #36
SP+SP+ #56 #78
Pts POPPO #106 #124
HavocHav #109 #94
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #52 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #92
Run ExplRExp #92 #70
PPAExp #50 #62
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLY #25 #53
Stuff RateStuff #6 #29
TackleTak -  #116
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #45 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #113 #124
Pass ExplPExl #86 #69
PPAExp #122 #125
Pass Block/RushP Blk #90 #119
F7 HavocF7 #96 #58
DB HavocDB #100 #129
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Virginia -16.5 (48.5)
Virginia won vs Stanford this year (48-20)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Stanford last year (48-20)

  
STAN's OC Troy Taylor (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)14826057%18139107.0
Elijah Brown7412758%829426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford14564344.475
Cole Tabb11444533.928
Sedrick Irvin4111812.915
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams60757612.636
Sam Roush49545211.169
Bryce Farrell28447216.068
Caden High (Tr)37414111.234

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose1068333
Scotty Edwards544311
Jahsiah Galvan502012
Jaivion Green383016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson336461
Matt Rose1068333
Ernest Cooper235301
Scotty Edwards544311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green383016
Brandon Nicholson271106
Collin Wright331004

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)28243665%30001696.9
Daniel Kaelin (Tr)305258%339116.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
J'mari Taylor (Tr)2221062144.878
Harrison Waylee (Tr)11855664.797
Chandler Morris (Tr)6424553.842
Xavier Brown5124114.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trell Harris59847514.475
Jahmal Edrine (Tr)46564112.337
Cameron Ross53543210.246
J'mari Taylor (Tr)4325315.925

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
James Jackson663053
Kamren Robinson644221
Maddox Marcellus (Tr)493211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Rickert (Tr)369791
Mitchell Melton (Tr)4510573
Fisher Camac (Tr)446424
Jacob Holmes (Tr)336340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Karnley (Tr)262008
Devin Neal (Tr)882127
Christian Charles (Tr)431026