Utah State at Vanderbilt - 2025 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at Vanderbilt CommodoresVanderbilt logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Vanderbilt Stadium - Nashville, TN

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 38 (25 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#120)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
VAN 2nd straight Home Game
VAN is playing their 5th straight game
USU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -23.5   (SP+ VAN -17)
Projected Score: USU: 19 - VAN: 42 (61)
VAN Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
USU Travel: 1393 miles, 1 hrs behind
Commodores (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 27 - 23 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 6.7 (#87)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.559.5
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+40
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+0
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-7.5
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i+7
Sat 10/18 Utah State vs San José State+8
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-4
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+13
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+11.5
Sat 11/29 Utah State vs Boise State+23

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-29
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.5
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+13
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-24.5
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.5
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+27
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU+18
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri+5
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+25.5
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-3
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+14.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)31.948% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)37.848% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)27.342% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)23.446% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
VAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1231.925.245.6%4.421.8234681992695.746%54%48%44%16%.24
VAN Defense1323.423.946.9%4.221.1 - - - - - 49%51%46%48%16%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1237.845.247.4%4.441.3 - - - - - 51%49%48%48%15%.27
VAN Offense1327.329.642.2%4.250.5172951291663.958%42%42%43%15%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1227:1922.540%50%7.873.81.81.362.3128.1
Vanderbilt1328:3916.644%54%548.30.51.14.81.7431.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1246% (102)48% (24)35.1199.35.721 (59).26 (13)3.41 (12)65% (117)8% (39)1.11 (18)
VAN Defense1349% (47)46% (96) - - - - .12 (70)2.98 (62)77% (88)10% (76)0.89 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1251% (69)48% (112) - - - - .25 (124)3.45 (128)76% (85)10% (70)0.96 (56)
VAN Offense1358% (18)42% (93)33.1129.23.916 (90).06 (104)2.8 (105)83% (10)8% (41)0.87 (116)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1254% (36)44% (37)24.538.2269.17.11129 (12)17 (127).25 (69)1.5 (118)29% (30)33% (54).4 (38)8% (124)2.1 (31)
VAN Defense1351% (90)48% (125) - - - - - - 9 (76).37 (120)1.5 (33)29% (111)36% (122).45 (117)7% (48)2.1 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1249% (64)48% (123) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (106)1.5 (30)27% (129)32% (97).32 (75)5% (99)1.8 (21)
VAN Offense1342% (115)43% (53)12.821.8166.37.61318 (68)4 (1).33 (33)1.7 (37)33% (108)31% (74).32 (75)7% (96)2.1 (64)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -16.72 #113
Utah State's Offense Rating: 9.08 #99
Utah State's Defense Rating: 25.80 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 480.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #117
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -16.72   Vanderbilt: 7.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -14.8   Vanderbilt: 1.7




Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 7.845 #40
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 20.94 #30
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 11.95 #53
2025 Talent Rating: 768.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #47
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7 #55
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #63
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #50

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 954.88
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.2

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 42
Utah State 19

Projected Total Points: 61
Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.9

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Vanderbilt000 Overs
Utah State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#113) Utah State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.72 #113
Offense Rating: 9.08 #99
Defense Rating: 25.80 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #132
Talent Rating: 480.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.42 PPO
Good Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Utah State Notes
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) WR 6 portal adds, Hestera exp. TE Sterzer OK
(3/29) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 1 portal add
(3/29) Def god awful LY. 8 portal adds, new DC
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
(3/22) 7 (of 21) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
Utah State     Ratings Matchup     Vanderbilt
Power #113
#40
Off #99
#30
Def #124
#53
Talent #110
#54
SP+ #117
#55
SP+ Off #88
#63
SP+ Def #132
#50

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USU | VAN
Depth Chart: USU | VAN
Rosters: USU | VAN
(#40) Vanderbilt Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.845 #40
Offense Rating: 20.94 #30
Defense Rating: 11.95 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #63
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #50
Talent Rating: 768.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #47
Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.25 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Vanderbilt Notes
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/26) Goal is to get back to bowl game TY
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
(5/15) WR Tre Richardson productive & KR @ Washburn
(5/11) 76% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(4/4) QB Pavia returns. Tough runner, decent passer
(4/4) TE Stowers #1 via PFF, WR returns options
(3/18) RB's bad LY, no portals. Any improvement?


  
Utah State's OC Kevin McGiven
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes7712661%8561266.8
Jacob Conover2450%22005.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Barnes6853057.863
Javen Jacobs (Tr)4027736.950
Derrick Jameson1514029.372
Miles Davis (Tr)187604.237
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Sterzer20202410.137
Broc Lane19197210.426
Javen Jacobs (Tr)1713017.633
Miles Davis (Tr)568113.626

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005
Ike Larsen802009
Bryson Taylor (Tr)5620010
John Miller526242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bronson Olevao234430
John Miller526242
William Holmes62210
Isaiah Bruce192102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Taylor (Tr)5620010
Ike Larsen802009
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005

Vanderbilt's OC Tim Beck
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia17729859%22932047.7
Eli Stowers1250%17108.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia19380084.136
Sedrick Alexander16458663.631
AJ Newberry4118534.520
Chase Gillespie155103.47
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Stowers49638513.041
Junior Sherrill29411314.243
Sedrick Alexander23238110.338
AJ Newberry7134219.153

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster
Vanderbilt's DC Steve Gregory
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Longwell888224
Langston Patterson785002
C.J. Heard (Tr)741001
Randon Fontenette728307
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nicholas Rinaldi526600
Khordae Sydnor147422
Mason Nelson (Tr)319311
Randon Fontenette728307
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randon Fontenette728307
Bryan Longwell888224
Martel Hight332014