Utah State at Vanderbilt - 2025 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at Vanderbilt Commodores(#20)Vanderbilt logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Vanderbilt Stadium - Nashville, TN

 
Aggies (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (22 - 44 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
VAN 2nd straight Home Game
VAN is playing their 5th straight game
USU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -33.5   (SP+ VAN -22)

Projected Score: USU: 12 - VAN: 45 (57)
VAN Win prob: 100% | Cover: 46%
USU Travel: 1393 miles, 1 hrs behind
Commodores (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 40 - 10 (45 - 3 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.9 - 4.1 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.559.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+34.557.5L 22 - 44OY
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+4.051.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-11
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+33.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i+6
Sat 10/18 Utah State vs San José State+1
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-7
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+13.5
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+9
Sat 11/29 Utah State vs Boise State+14.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.549.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.546.5W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.048.5W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-26.553.5
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-33.5
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU+2.5
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri+3.5
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+8.5
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-12
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+7

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#72 (.2)40% (101)3334% (121)2.49 (112)13045% (61)2315.31 (21)#94 (.18)47% (115)3050% (118)43% (91)5.38 (130)57.70.31.7
VAN#4 (.57)61% (4)4059% (7)3.71 (16)20364% (2)2285.63 (7)#49 (.06)36% (47)1041% (83)32% (31)2.5 (34)5912
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)48% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)48% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)42% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)46% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense3332239.8%5.310.3193601302313.947%53%34%45%19%.2
VAN Defense310336.4%2.52 - - - - - 49%50%41%32%22%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense3304446.7%5.381.7 - - - - - 57%42%50%43%12%.18
VAN Offense3404560.5%5.631234312032285.855%44%59%64%11%.57

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State326:0419.323%100%957.70.31.752029.7
Vanderbilt333:2123.361%100%7.359127.32.7035.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense347% (92)34% (121)33.3129.73.97 (38).18 (52)2.49 (112)50% (124)15% (131)1.56 (5)
VAN Defense349% (60)41% (83) - - - - .05 (63)2.69 (60)55% (24)16% (11)0.84 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense357% (117)50% (118) - - - - .21 (113)2.9 (83)75% (80)7% (109)0.9 (61)
VAN Offense355% (42)59% (7)352035.88 (26).38 (13)3.71 (16)100% (1)7% (36)0.89 (89)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense353% (44)45% (61)17.327230.78.513.36 (34)0 (1).21 (86)1.4 (101)36% (120)28% (93).16 (107)4% (38)2 (60)
VAN Defense350% (74)32% (31) - - - - - - 2 (56).13 (49)1.3 (30)33% (62)21% (32).18 (53)7% (53)1.7 (41)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense342% (20)43% (91) - - - - - - 4 (12).16 (54)1.2 (15)24% (130)20% (26)-.04 (16)5% (94)1.3 (4)
VAN Offense344% (94)64% (2)17.724.7228.39.312.98 (18)2 (60).84 (4)1.8 (17)24% (19)55% (1)1.08 (2)4% (42)2.3 (21)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -15.70 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -15.70   Vanderbilt: 20.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -9.3   Vanderbilt: 12.5




Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 20.885 #17
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 26.54 #15
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 2.28 #37
2025 Talent Rating: 822.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 7.9 - 4.1
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.5 #27
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #31
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 22
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense on Road: 44

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 45
Utah State 12


Total Points: 57

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 40 PPG
Offense at Home: 45
Defense: 10 PPG
Defense at Home: 3

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Vanderbilt000 Overs
Utah State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#117) Utah State Info
Power Rating: -15.70 #117
Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.31 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Utah State has lost 1 straight
Utah State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Utah State Notes
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)

Utah State Highlights
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread

Utah State offense is explosive (#17)
Utah State offense is good in red zone (#21)
Utah State defense does not give up big plays (#12)
Utah State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Utah State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Utah State Deficiencies
Utah State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)
Utah State offense is really bad (#101)
Utah State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#116)
Utah State run game is really bad (#121)
Utah State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Utah State has a bad defense (#115)
Utah State has a bad red zone defense (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatVANUSU
OverallOver#21#57
OffenseOff#25#59
DefenseDef#16#60
Special TeamsST#44#103
PassingPass#13#33
RushingRush#39#90
Run BlockRBLK#67#70
Pass BlockPBLK#112#79
Route RunningWR Rt#1#43
TacklingTkl#83#70
Run DefenseR Def#59#61
Pass Rush DefPRush#30#99
Coverage DefCov#7#44

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USU | VAN
Depth Chart: USU | VAN
Rosters: USU | VAN
(#17) Vanderbilt Info
Power Rating: 20.885 #17
Offense Rating: 26.54 #15
Defense Rating: 2.28 #37
Overall SP+ Rating: 12.5 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #31
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #33
Talent Rating: 822.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Expected Record: 7.9 - 4.1

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 61%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.63 PPO
Great Run Success 59%
Great Pass Success 64%
Poor OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 36%
Good in Scoring Position 2.5 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 41%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Vanderbilt has lost 1 straight
Vanderbilt has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Vanderbilt Notes
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/26) Goal is to get back to bowl game TY
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
(5/15) WR Tre Richardson productive & KR @ Washburn
(5/11) 76% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(4/4) QB Pavia returns. Tough runner, decent passer
(4/4) TE Stowers #1 via PFF, WR returns options
(3/18) RB's bad LY, no portals. Any improvement?

Vanderbilt Highlights
Vanderbilt is Undefeated vs Spread
Vanderbilt in Undefeated
Vanderbilt is Undefeated at Home
Vanderbilt is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Vanderbilt offense is efficent (#4)
Vanderbilt has a top Offensive Line (#16)
Vanderbilt offense is good in red zone (#7)
Vanderbilt offense is good on 3rd downs
Vanderbilt does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#10)

Vanderbilt defense does not give up big plays (#21)
Vanderbilt Front 7 is disruptive (#11)

Vanderbilt Deficiencies
Vanderbilt Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)


  
Utah State's OC Kevin McGiven
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes518064%689508.6
Anthony Garcia (Tr)11100%3103.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Miles Davis (Tr)3119216.258
Javen Jacobs (Tr)2111515.552
Bryson Barnes466941.518
Anthony Garcia (Tr)117117.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)14208314.954
Brady Boyd (Tr)13190014.624
Miles Davis (Tr)97027.830
Javen Jacobs (Tr)75507.918

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Noah Avinger (Tr)260000
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
William Holmes192020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Bronson Olevao183211
Tyree Morris (Tr)152100
Mataira Brown40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
Carl Nesmith40001
Dylan Tucker (Tr)100001

Vanderbilt's OC Tim Beck
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia506874%645729.5
Blaze Berlowitz3650%40106.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sedrick Alexander3519735.621
Diego Pavia3012904.315
Makhilyn Young1412328.862
Jamezell Lassiter279239.544
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)12162113.526
Eli Stowers11160114.541
Junior Sherrill87929.921
Martel Hight76409.118

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster
Vanderbilt's DC Steve Gregory
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Heard (Tr)171130
Nicholas Rinaldi135210
Bryan Longwell114002
Bryce Cowan101120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nicholas Rinaldi135210
C.J. Heard (Tr)171130
Hayden Bray21100
Zaylin Wood32121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Longwell114002
Vanzale Hinton00001
Kolbey Taylor40001