Utah State at Vanderbilt - 2025 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at Vanderbilt Commodores(#18)Vanderbilt logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:45 PM EDT)
Vanderbilt -23.5 (57.5) (-2100)  Open: -21.5
Vanderbilt 55 - Utah State: 35

 
Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
VAN 2nd straight Home Game
VAN is playing their 5th straight game
USU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -29.5  (SP+ VAN -21)

Projected Score: USU: 16 - VAN: 46 (62)
VAN Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
USU Travel: 1393 miles, 1 hrs behind
Commodores (10 - 3) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 6) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.559.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+34.557.5L 22 - 44OY
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+4.051.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-23.563.0W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.557.5L 35 - 55OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i-1.557.5L 26 - 44ON
Fri 10/17 Utah State vs San José State-3.063.5W 30 - 25UY
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+3.061.5L 14 - 33UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-10.052.5W 51 - 14OY
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+4.568.5L 26 - 29UY
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+1.550.5W 28 - 17UY
Fri 11/28 Utah State vs Boise State+1.554.5L 24 - 25UY
Mon 12/22 Utah State vs Washington State-1.050.0L 21 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.549.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.546.5W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.048.5W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-27.553.5W 70 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.557.5W 55 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.558.5L 14 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU-1.548.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri-3.052.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+3.548.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn-6.046.5W 45 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-7.053.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+2.066.5W 45 - 24OY
Wed 12/31 Vanderbilt vs Iowa-3.047.5L 27 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#48 (.2)41% (91)30.942% (87)2.87 (82)15841% (83)2324.49 (18)#111 (.22)43% (91)28.745% (100)42% (70)3.77 (75)54.50.81.1
VAN#1 (.46)53% (1)38.551% (9)3.35 (11)17257% (2)2615.06 (1)#95 (.2)41% (63)22.840% (47)43% (77)3.8 (80)55.60.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)48% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)48% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)42% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)46% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1330.925.240.9%4.490.8203901582324.947%52%42%41%16%.2
VAN Defense1322.821.141.3%3.81.1 - - - - - 43%55%40%43%17%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1328.73743.4%3.771.1 - - - - - 47%52%45%42%13%.22
VAN Offense1338.54453.5%5.060.9224331722615.948%50%51%57%13%.46

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1325:2219.635%54%7.154.50.81.14.22.1128.2
Vanderbilt1329:1022.553%59%6.155.60.91.15.82.2130.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1347% (96)42% (87)32.2158.34.924 (40).19 (33)2.87 (82)71% (74)11% (119)1.16 (9)
VAN Defense1343% (6)40% (47) - - - - .04 (29)2.74 (40)73% (80)11% (20)0.89 (33)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1347% (30)45% (100) - - - - .21 (124)3.18 (116)70% (59)7% (127)1.04 (105)
VAN Offense1348% (77)51% (9)29.21725.934 (4).36 (1)3.35 (11)76% (38)8% (29)1.21 (2)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1352% (44)41% (83)17.528.9232813.224 (14)4 (7).24 (70)1.5 (68)33% (98)31% (56).36 (48)5% (30)2.1 (62)
VAN Defense1355% (131)43% (77) - - - - - - 7 (75).33 (104)1.5 (60)34% (26)30% (72).34 (96)6% (68)2 (63)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1352% (111)42% (70) - - - - - - 10 (38).24 (61)1.5 (26)29% (111)33% (115).37 (109)6% (59)1.9 (27)
VAN Offense1350% (58)57% (2)19.527.8260.69.413.328 (22)8 (34).58 (2)1.5 (83)26% (9)51% (1).8 (1)5% (25)2 (78)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -9.09  #104
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.21  #71
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.30  #120
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00  #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3  #74
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7  #51
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -9.09   Vanderbilt: 24.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -0.3   Vanderbilt: 20.9




Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 24.68  #12
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 30.58  #2
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 7.12  #62
2025 Talent Rating: 822.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.9  #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #4
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #32

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 46
Utah State 16


Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Vanderbilt 46
Utah State 25

Total Points: 71

Based on Entire Season
Vanderbilt 37
Utah State 25

Total Points: 62
Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.1

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Vanderbilt55Utah State35Vanderbilt -23.5Utah State57.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Vanderbilt101 Overs
Utah State010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#104) USU at (#12) VAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSUVAN
Power RatePwr #104 #12
SP+SP+ #74 #11
Perf GradeGrade #90 #27
OffenseOff #80 #25
DefenseDef #80 #56
Spec TeamsST #114 #19
TalentTal #118 #47
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #49
Utah State Notes
(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report
Vanderbilt Notes
(11/30) Outrushed Tenn 314-83. Incredible season, CFP worthy
(11/28) HC Lea extended w/ new 6 year deal
(10/18) Ran all over LUS (239, 5.3 pyc). Pavia a dawg
(10/7) Hoping books sleep on Vandy after Bama L, good team
(9/30) Off Success is #1 in CFB into Bama game (5 games)
(9/21) Pavia incredible, Dores hot start. Run Off great
(9/21) Vandy is serious. Killing teams, mauling Rush Off
(5/26) Off should improve w/ better OL, more exp
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
Vanderbilt Injury Report
Utah State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffVAN Def
Perf GradePerf #80 #56
SuccessSuc #91 #63
ExplosiveExp #19 #90
PPAPPA #48 #95
PowerPwr #71 #62
SP+SP+ #51 #32
Pts POPPO #18 #80
HavocHav #88 #35
Utah State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #81 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #87 #47
Run ExplRExp #9 #33
PPAExp #33 #29
Run BlockR Blk #103 -
OL YdsOLY #82 #40
Stuff RateStuff #101 #40
TackleTak -  #104
Utah State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #36 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #77
Pass ExplPExl #68 #60
PPAExp #70 #104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #96 #62
F7 HavocF7 #119 #20
DB HavocDB #30 #68
Vanderbilt on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatVAN OffUSU Def
Perf GradePerf #25 #80
SuccessSuc #1 #91
ExplosiveExp #14 #63
PPAPPA #1 #111
PowerPwr #2 #120
SP+SP+ #4 #91
Pts POPPO #1 #75
HavocHav #22 #113
Vanderbilt Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffUSU Def
Run GameRun #15 #82
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #100
Run ExplRExp #2 #105
PPAExp #1 #124
Run BlockR Blk #90 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #116
Stuff RateStuff #29 #110
TackleTak -  #106
Vanderbilt Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatVAN OffUSU Def
Pass GamePass #4 #49
Pass SuccessPSuc #2 #70
Pass ExplPExl #83 #26
PPAExp #2 #61
Pass Block/RushP Blk #129 #110
F7 HavocF7 #29 #127
DB HavocDB #25 #59
Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 82° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Vanderbilt -23.5 (57.5)
Vanderbilt won vs Utah State this year (55-35)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes21135659%28021857.9
Jacob Conover244060%323418.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Barnes189740103.958
Miles Davis (Tr)13173285.664
Javen Jacobs (Tr)6542956.658
Noah White259303.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)60925515.454
Brady Boyd (Tr)46743816.253
Javen Jacobs (Tr)4337938.830
Anthony Garcia (Tr)20348217.474

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller11810883
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)1103208
Bronson Olevao888463
Noah Avinger (Tr)8141110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller11810883
Bronson Olevao888463
Chris Joe416431
Tyree Morris (Tr)466411
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Avinger (Tr)8141110
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)1103208
Ike Larsen563015

VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia24234071%31922789.4
Blaze Berlowitz91753%131107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia15282695.441
Sedrick Alexander103563115.565
Makhilyn Young4440769.380
Jamezell Lassiter9143215.948
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Stowers61765412.567
Tre Richardson (Tr)41683616.771
Junior Sherrill46661714.440
Richie Hoskins26305311.753

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Longwell679142
C.J. Heard (Tr)644253
Langston Patterson611030
Randon Fontenette487056
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Capers359531
Zaylin Wood265461
Nicholas Rinaldi427491
Khordae Sydnor299483
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randon Fontenette487056
Khordae Sydnor299483
C.J. Heard (Tr)644253