Air Force at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (9:45 PM EDT)
Air Force -4 (51.5) (-185) Open: 0.0
Utah State 49 - Air Force: 30 (Mountain West)

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 8)

AFA coming off BYE
Our Line: Air Force -2 (SP+ USU -0)
Projected Score: AFA: 29 - USU: 27 (56)
AFA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 413 miles

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Air Force vs Bucknell	-31.0	54.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Air Force at Utah State	-4.0	51.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.5	51.5	L 37 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/27	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-7.0	52.5	L 35 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/4	Air Force at Navy	+13.5	50.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Air Force at UNLV	+7.0	65.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Air Force vs Wyoming	-4.0	56.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Air Force vs Army	+1.5	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/8	Air Force at San José State	+6.0	67.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Air Force at UConn	+7.5	64.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/22	Air Force vs New Mexico	+3.5	53.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-2.5	47.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)	29.8	45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)	30.3	41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)	30.9	48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)	28.7	48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	12	29.8	32.2	42.1%	4.02	1.3	18	314	225	90	4	82%	18%	45%	31%	12%	.13
USU Defense	12	28.7	19.5	47.4%	4.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	48%	48%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	12	30.3	32.8	41.7%	3.97	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	41%	43%	15%	.2
USU Offense	12	30.9	38.3	45.6%	4.42	1.8	23	468	199	269	5.7	46%	54%	48%	44%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	12	33:58	17.9	42%	64%	3	28	1.3	1	4.3	1.5	0	28.6
Utah State	12	27:19	22.5	40%	50%	7.8	73.8	1.8	1.3	6	2.3	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	12	82% (2)	45% (60)	55.7	224.7	4	24 (45)	.15 (60)	3.03 (68)	83% (11)	9% (55)	0.88 (112)
USU Defense	12	51% (69)	48% (112)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.45 (128)	76% (85)	10% (70)	0.96 (56)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	12	56% (120)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.1 (56)	3.02 (73)	66% (28)	10% (63)	1.07 (101)
USU Offense	12	46% (102)	48% (24)	35.1	199.3	5.7	21 (59)	.26 (13)	3.41 (12)	65% (117)	8% (39)	1.11 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	12	18% (133)	31% (131)	5.2	11.5	89.8	7.8	17.4	5 (134)	10 (63)	.09 (124)	2.1 (1)	27% (14)	25% (124)	.18 (111)	3% (2)	2.1 (66)
USU Defense	12	49% (64)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (106)	1.5 (30)	27% (129)	32% (97)	.32 (75)	5% (99)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.33 (107)	1.6 (63)	31% (79)	30% (54)	.3 (63)	5% (120)	2 (60)
USU Offense	12	54% (36)	44% (37)	24.5	38.2	269.1	7.1	11	29 (12)	17 (127)	.25 (69)	1.5 (118)	29% (30)	33% (54)	.4 (38)	8% (124)	2.1 (31)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -7.54 #90
Air Force's Offense Rating: 12.58 #72
Air Force's Defense Rating: 20.12 #110
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -7.54 Utah State: -7.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.2 Utah State: -3.1

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.485 #124
Utah State's Offense Rating: 6.59 #111
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.46 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 29
Utah State 27

Projected Total Points: 56

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Utah State	49	Air Force	30	Air Force -4	Utah State	51.5	Over
2023	09/15	Air Force	39	Utah State	21	Air Force -9	Air Force	45.5	Over
2022	10/08	Utah State	34	Air Force	27	Air Force -11.5	Utah State	54.0	Over
2021	09/18	Air Force	45	Utah State	49	Air Force -9	Utah State	54.0	Over
2020	12/03	Utah State	7	Air Force	35	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	51.0	Under
2019	10/26	Air Force	31	Utah State	7	Air Force -4	Air Force	58.5	Under
2018	09/22	Utah State	42	Air Force	32	Utah State -10	Push	59.5	Over
2017	11/25	Air Force	38	Utah State	35	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	57.5	Over
2016	09/24	Utah State	20	Air Force	27	Air Force -3	Air Force	53.5	Under
2015	11/14	Air Force	35	Utah State	28	Utah State -1.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2014	10/11	Utah State	34	Air Force	16	Utah State -7.5	Utah State	0
2013	09/07	Air Force	20	Utah State	52	Utah State -8	Utah State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	6	5	7 Overs
Air Force	6	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	7 - 4	4 - 1	3 - 3
Road Teams	4 - 8	4 - 7	3 - 3	1 - 4

(#90) AFA at (#124) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#90	#124
SP+SP+	#80	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#97
OffenseOff	#8	#87
DefenseDef	#117	#85
Spec TeamsST	#57	#121
TalentTal	#134	#118
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

Air Force Notes(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#8	#85
SuccessSuc	#77	#122
ExplosiveExp	#134	#42
PPAPPA	#103	#119
PowerPwr	#72	#130
SP+SP+	#59	#98
Pts POPPO	#56	#122
HavocHav	#16	#81

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#71	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#60	#112
Run ExplRExp	#112	#56
PPAExp	#60	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#128
Stuff RateStuff	#21	#95
TackleTak	-	#111

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#30
PPAExp	#124	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#110
F7 HavocF7	#55	#70
DB HavocDB	#2	#99

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#87	#117
SuccessSuc	#31	#68
ExplosiveExp	#59	#84
PPAPPA	#34	#88
PowerPwr	#111	#110
SP+SP+	#53	#101
Pts POPPO	#24	#84
HavocHav	#81	#86

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#68	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#47
Run ExplRExp	#18	#101
PPAExp	#13	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#82
TackleTak	-	#46

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#63
PPAExp	#69	#107
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#52
F7 HavocF7	#39	#63
DB HavocDB	#124	#120

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Air Force 4.0 (51.5)
Utah State won vs Air Force this year (49-30)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Air Force last year (49-30)
Air Force beat Utah State in 2023 (39-21)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Liam Szarka	75	120	63%	1294	9	5	10.8
Josh Johnson	16	28	57%	374	4	2	13.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Liam Szarka	190	922	13	4.9	64
Owen Allen	131	749	5	5.7	43
Dylan Carson	91	419	4	4.6	64
Cade Harris	61	321	4	5.3	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	35	584	2	16.7	74
Bruin Fleischmann	21	370	6	17.6	68
Quin Smith	15	358	4	23.9	52
Jonah Dawson	12	260	1	21.7	53

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Fletcher	108	1	0	5	2
Roger Jones Jr.	76	1	0	1	0
Dallas Daley	45	1	0	1	3
Peyton Zdroik	36	6	1	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Hubert	30	11	5	7	1
Jackson Adams	17	4	3	3	2
Grady Forsythe	2	2	2	0	0
Jaylin Reese	10	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Korey Johnson	34	0	0	4
Dallas Daley	45	1	1	3
Blake Fletcher	108	1	5	2

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	39	62%	323	4	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	32	2	0	1	5