Air Force Falcons at Utah State Aggies
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (9:45 PM EDT)
Air Force -4 (51.5) (-185) Open: 0.0
Utah State 49 - Air Force: 30 (Mountain West)
Falcons (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 40 - 31 (30 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 8)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 40 - 31 (30 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 8)
AFA coming off BYE
Our Line: Utah State -2.5 (SP+ AFA -0)
Projected Score: AFA: 29 - USU: 31 (60)
AFA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 413 miles
Our Line: Utah State -2.5 (SP+ AFA -0)
Projected Score: AFA: 29 - USU: 31 (60)
AFA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 413 miles
Aggies (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (39 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (39 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
| Air Force's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Air Force vs Bucknell | -31.0 | 54.5 | W 49 - 13 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Air Force at Utah State | -4.0 | 51.5 | L 30 - 49 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/20 | Air Force vs Boise State | +10.0 | 51.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | Air Force vs Hawai'i | +1.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | Air Force at Navy | +16.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/11 | Air Force at UNLV | +13.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/18 | Air Force vs Wyoming | +4.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Air Force vs Army | +3.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | Air Force at San José State | +6 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | Air Force at UConn | +18.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | Air Force vs New Mexico | -4.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | Air Force at Colorado State | +8 | |||||
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| Utah State's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Utah State vs UTEP | -3.5 | 59.5 | W 28 - 16 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/6 | Utah State at Texas A&M | +34.5 | 57.5 | L 22 - 44 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | Utah State vs Air Force | +4.0 | 51.5 | W 49 - 30 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | Utah State vs McNeese | -11 | |||||
| Sat 9/27 | Utah State at Vanderbilt | +33.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Utah State at Hawai'i | +6 | |||||
| Sat 10/18 | Utah State vs San José State | +1 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | Utah State at New Mexico | +0.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Utah State vs Nevada | -7 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | Utah State at UNLV | +13.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | Utah State at Fresno State | +9 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | Utah State vs Boise State | +14.5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA | #30 (.34) | 53% (21) | 39.5 | 57% (13) | 3.48 (27) | 267 | 41% (83) | 169 | 6.08 (4) | #124 (.33) | 47% (116) | 31 | 40% (76) | 54% (130) | 5.33 (128) | 45.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
| USU | #72 (.2) | 40% (101) | 33 | 34% (121) | 2.49 (112) | 130 | 45% (61) | 231 | 5.31 (21) | #94 (.18) | 47% (115) | 30 | 50% (118) | 43% (91) | 5.38 (130) | 57.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA | #103 (.13) | 42% (77) | 45% (60) | 3.03 (68) | 225 | 31% (131) | 90 | 4.02 (56) | #88 (.2) | 42% (68) | 41% (47) | 43% (89) | 3.97 (84) | 28 | 1.3 | 1 | ||
| USU | #34 (.24) | 46% (31) | 48% (24) | 3.41 (12) | 199 | 44% (37) | 269 | 4.42 (24) | #119 (.27) | 47% (122) | 48% (112) | 48% (123) | 4.44 (122) | 73.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 2 | 39.5 | 30 | 52.8% | 6.08 | 1.5 | 23 | 436 | 267 | 169 | 4.8 | 72% | 28% | 57% | 41% | 9% | .34 |
| USU Defense | 3 | 30 | 23 | 46.7% | 5.38 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - | - | 57% | 42% | 50% | 43% | 12% | .18 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 2 | 31 | 49 | 46.9% | 5.33 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 52% | 48% | 40% | 54% | 14% | .33 |
| USU Offense | 3 | 33 | 38.5 | 39.8% | 5.31 | 0.3 | 19 | 360 | 130 | 231 | 3.9 | 47% | 53% | 34% | 45% | 19% | .2 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 2 | 34:54 | 23 | 52% | 100% | 4.5 | 45.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 26.4 |
| Utah State | 3 | 26:04 | 19.3 | 23% | 100% | 9 | 57.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 29.7 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 2 | 72% (5) | 57% (13) | 56 | 266.5 | 4.8 | 8 (26) | .35 (22) | 3.48 (27) | 77% (45) | 5% (10) | 0.9 (87) |
| USU Defense | 3 | 57% (117) | 50% (118) | - | - | - | - | .21 (113) | 2.9 (83) | 75% (80) | 7% (109) | 0.9 (61) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 2 | 52% (92) | 40% (76) | - | - | - | - | .3 (127) | 3.29 (123) | 60% (34) | 10% (65) | 1.32 (125) |
| USU Offense | 3 | 47% (92) | 34% (121) | 33.3 | 129.7 | 3.9 | 7 (38) | .18 (52) | 2.49 (112) | 50% (124) | 15% (131) | 1.56 (5) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 2 | 28% (132) | 41% (83) | 8.5 | 16 | 169 | 10.6 | 19.9 | 2 (102) | 2 (60) | .31 (65) | 1.7 (33) | 26% (30) | 22% (118) | -.04 (128) | 4% (35) | 1.1 (133) |
| USU Defense | 3 | 42% (20) | 43% (91) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 (12) | .16 (54) | 1.2 (15) | 24% (130) | 20% (26) | -.04 (16) | 5% (94) | 1.3 (4) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 2 | 48% (49) | 54% (130) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 (87) | .38 (112) | 1.5 (57) | 29% (107) | 50% (134) | .89 (134) | 3% (116) | 2.1 (83) |
| USU Offense | 3 | 53% (44) | 45% (61) | 17.3 | 27 | 230.7 | 8.5 | 13.3 | 6 (34) | 0 (1) | .21 (86) | 1.4 (101) | 36% (120) | 28% (93) | .16 (107) | 4% (38) | 2 (60) |
Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Air Force's Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Air Force's Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Air Force's Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -16.01 Utah State: -10
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -9.2 Utah State: -9.3
Air Force: -16.01 Utah State: -10
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -9.2 Utah State: -9.3
Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -10 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Utah State's Power Rating: -10 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 39.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 49
Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Offense: 39.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 49
Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Utah State 31
Air Force 29
Total Points: 60
Utah State 31
Air Force 29
Total Points: 60
Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.5
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 23
Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.5
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 23
Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 09/13 | Utah State | 49 | Air Force | 30 | Utah State | Air Force -4 | Utah State | 51.5 | Over |
| 2023 | 09/15 | Air Force | 39 | Utah State | 21 | Air Force | Air Force -9 | Air Force | 45.5 | Over |
| 2022 | 10/08 | Utah State | 34 | Air Force | 27 | Utah State | Air Force -11.5 | Utah State | 54.0 | Over |
| 2021 | 09/18 | Air Force | 45 | Utah State | 49 | Utah State | Air Force -9 | Utah State | 54.0 | Over |
| 2020 | 12/03 | Utah State | 7 | Air Force | 35 | Air Force | Air Force -13.5 | Air Force | 51.0 | Under |
| 2019 | 10/26 | Air Force | 31 | Utah State | 7 | Air Force | Air Force -4 | Air Force | 58.5 | Under |
| 2018 | 09/22 | Utah State | 42 | Air Force | 32 | Utah State | Utah State -10 | Push | 59.5 | Over |
| 2017 | 11/25 | Air Force | 38 | Utah State | 35 | Air Force | Air Force -2.5 | Air Force | 57.5 | Over |
| 2016 | 09/24 | Utah State | 20 | Air Force | 27 | Air Force | Air Force -3 | Air Force | 53.5 | Under |
| 2015 | 11/14 | Air Force | 35 | Utah State | 28 | Air Force | Utah State -1.5 | Air Force | 50.5 | Over |
| 2014 | 10/11 | Utah State | 34 | Air Force | 16 | Utah State | Utah State -7.5 | Utah State | 0 | |
| 2013 | 09/07 | Air Force | 20 | Utah State | 52 | Utah State | Utah State -8 | Utah State | 0 |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | 6 | 5 | 7 Overs |
| Air Force | 6 | 6 | 3 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 8 - 4 | 7 - 4 | 4 - 1 | 3 - 3 |
| Road Teams | 4 - 8 | 4 - 7 | 3 - 3 | 1 - 4 |
(#119) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Team Profile
Option Offense 72%, Pass: 28%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 6.08 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.33 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Awful Pass Def Success 54%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Air Force has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Air Force Notes
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent
Air Force Highlights
Air Force offense is efficent (#21)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good in red zone (#4)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)
Air Force Defense Sacks the QB a lot
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)
Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force has a bad defense (#116)
Air Force gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#109)
Air Force Does Not Stuff Runs (#117)
Air Force has a bad defensive line (#123)
Air Force has a bad red zone defense (#128)
Power Rating: -16.01 #119
Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Team Profile
Option Offense 72%, Pass: 28%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 6.08 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.33 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Awful Pass Def Success 54%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Air Force has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
Air Force Notes
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent
Air Force Highlights
Air Force offense is efficent (#21)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good in red zone (#4)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)
Air Force Defense Sacks the QB a lot
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)
Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force has a bad defense (#116)
Air Force gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#109)
Air Force Does Not Stuff Runs (#117)
Air Force has a bad defensive line (#123)
Air Force has a bad red zone defense (#128)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | USU | AFA |
| OverallOver | #57 | #60 |
| OffenseOff | #59 | #21 |
| DefenseDef | #60 | #88 |
| Special TeamsST | #103 | #74 |
| PassingPass | #33 | #66 |
| RushingRush | #90 | #44 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #70 | #6 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #79 | #61 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #43 | #82 |
| TacklingTkl | #70 | #85 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #61 | #60 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #99 | #74 |
| Coverage DefCov | #44 | #107 |
Rematch from Week 3
Air Force 4.0 (51.5)
Utah State won vs Air Force this year (49-30)
Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Utah State in 2023 (39-21)
Utah State beat Air Force in 2022 (34-27)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: AFA | USU
Depth Chart: AFA | USU
Rosters: AFA | USU
(#117) Utah State Info
Power Rating: -10 #117
Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.31 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Utah State has lost 1 straight
Utah State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)
Utah State Notes
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Highlights
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread
Utah State is Undefeated at Home
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs
Utah State offense is explosive (#17)
Utah State offense is good in red zone (#21)
Utah State defense does not give up big plays (#12)
Utah State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Utah State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
Utah State Deficiencies
Utah State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)
Utah State offense is really bad (#101)
Utah State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#116)
Utah State run game is really bad (#121)
Utah State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Utah State has a bad defense (#115)
Utah State has a bad red zone defense (#130)
Power Rating: -10 #117
Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.31 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Utah State has lost 1 straight
Utah State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)
Utah State Notes
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Highlights
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread
Utah State is Undefeated at Home
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs
Utah State offense is explosive (#17)
Utah State offense is good in red zone (#21)
Utah State defense does not give up big plays (#12)
Utah State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Utah State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
Utah State Deficiencies
Utah State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)
Utah State offense is really bad (#101)
Utah State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#116)
Utah State run game is really bad (#121)
Utah State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Utah State has a bad defense (#115)
Utah State has a bad red zone defense (#130)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 9 | 16 | 56% | 224 | 2 | 1 | 14.0 |
| Liam Szarka | 8 | 16 | 50% | 114 | 0 | 1 | 7.1 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Harris | 16 | 138 | 2 | 8.6 | 49 |
| Dylan Carson | 19 | 105 | 1 | 5.5 | 17 |
| Christopher Frew | 6 | 60 | 0 | 10.0 | 14 |
| Owen Allen | 17 | 56 | 1 | 3.3 | 14 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Harris | 5 | 146 | 1 | 29.2 | 62 |
| Quin Smith | 3 | 85 | 1 | 28.3 | 40 |
| James Roberson | 4 | 80 | 0 | 20.0 | 29 |
| Bruin Fleischmann | 3 | 19 | 0 | 6.3 | 7 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Fletcher | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Roger Jones Jr. | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Fisher | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Beckwith | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Hubert | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jackson Adams | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Forsythe | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukia Rawls Jr. | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Beckwith | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Houston Hendrix | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Korey Johnson | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Barnes | 51 | 80 | 64% | 689 | 5 | 0 | 8.6 |
| Anthony Garcia (Tr) | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Davis (Tr) | 31 | 192 | 1 | 6.2 | 58 |
| Javen Jacobs (Tr) | 21 | 115 | 1 | 5.5 | 52 |
| Bryson Barnes | 46 | 69 | 4 | 1.5 | 18 |
| Anthony Garcia (Tr) | 1 | 17 | 1 | 17.0 | 17 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Pegan (Tr) | 14 | 208 | 3 | 14.9 | 54 |
| Brady Boyd (Tr) | 13 | 190 | 0 | 14.6 | 24 |
| Miles Davis (Tr) | 9 | 70 | 2 | 7.8 | 30 |
| Javen Jacobs (Tr) | 7 | 55 | 0 | 7.9 | 18 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Miller | 33 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Noah Avinger (Tr) | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brevin Hamblin (Tr) | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| William Holmes | 19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Miller | 33 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Bronson Olevao | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyree Morris (Tr) | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mataira Brown | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brevin Hamblin (Tr) | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Carl Nesmith | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Tucker (Tr) | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |