San José State at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview

San José State Spartans at Utah State Aggies

Friday, October 17th 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Utah State -3 (63.5) (-155) Open: -3.5
Utah State 30 - San José State: 25 (Mountain West)

Spartans (3 - 5) (4 - 4 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 7.2 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)

SJSU 2nd straight Road Game
SJSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Utah State -0 (SP+ USU -2)
Projected Score: SJSU: 31 - USU: 31 (63)
USU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
SJSU Travel: 617 miles, 1 hrs behind

Aggies (4 - 4) (6 - 2 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 32 (39 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#88)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
SJSU Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San José State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	San José State vs Central Michigan	-11.5	50.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/6	San José State at Texas	+37.0	52.5	L 7 - 38	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	San José State vs Idaho	-14.5	51.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/27	San José State at Stanford	+3.0	49.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Fri 10/3	San José State vs New Mexico	-1.5	58.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/11	San José State at Wyoming	-1.5	50.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Fri 10/17	San José State at Utah State	+3.0	63.5	L 25 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	San José State vs Hawai'i	-2.5	55.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/8	San José State vs Air Force	-3.5	67.5
Sat 11/15	San José State at Nevada	-6
Sat 11/22	San José State at San Diego State	+19.5
Sat 11/29	San José State vs Fresno State	-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-9.5	52.5
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+8
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+6
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+10

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU	#32 (.25)	44% (49)	26.8	45% (54)	2.85 (65)	122	44% (50)	333	3.21 (114)	#112 (.22)	43% (91)	30.4	43% (81)	44% (95)	4.02 (97)	54.3	1.5	1.4
USU	#45 (.21)	42% (83)	31.5	43% (80)	2.72 (81)	161	42% (74)	253	4.95 (4)	#121 (.25)	47% (127)	31.8	48% (129)	46% (116)	4.63 (129)	55.3	0.9	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU	#71 (.18)	44% (56)		41% (98)	2.27 (133)	88	46% (28)	322	3.6 (96)	#27 (.1)	41% (57)		42% (66)	39% (47)	3.58 (44)	61.5	2.2	2.2
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Offense	8	26.8	22.3	44.4%	3.21	1.5	21	455	122	333	4.7	38%	61%	45%	44%	14%	.25
USU Defense	8	31.8	19.5	46.9%	4.63	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	48%	46%	11%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Defense	8	30.4	33.3	43.2%	4.02	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	43%	44%	14%	.22
USU Offense	8	31.5	38.8	41.9%	4.95	0.9	20	414	161	253	4.9	47%	52%	43%	42%	16%	.21

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San José State	8	29:09	21.4	46%	25%	6.4	54.3	1.5	1.4	4.8	2	0	27.4
Utah State	8	26:42	20	30%	63%	7.5	55.3	0.9	1	4	2	0	27.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense	8	38% (132)	45% (54)	26	122	4.7	11 (107)	.11 (66)	2.85 (65)	66% (111)	6% (6)	1.01 (49)
USU Defense	8	49% (55)	48% (129)	-	-	-	-	.24 (130)	3.12 (116)	74% (92)	6% (135)	1.03 (102)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense	8	46% (30)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	.07 (61)	2.48 (38)	74% (83)	8% (114)	0.91 (51)
USU Offense	8	47% (93)	43% (80)	32.8	160.9	4.9	15 (40)	.16 (41)	2.72 (81)	77% (32)	12% (125)	1.14 (12)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense	8	61% (5)	44% (50)	24.8	42.5	332.9	7.8	13.5	17 (30)	4 (34)	.36 (38)	1.6 (47)	33% (94)	34% (39)	.34 (59)	8% (126)	1.8 (110)
USU Defense	8	50% (84)	46% (116)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (38)	.26 (83)	1.3 (5)	26% (135)	34% (115)	.34 (93)	5% (98)	1.7 (17)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense	8	54% (113)	44% (95)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (38)	.37 (121)	1.7 (128)	33% (58)	32% (99)	.46 (125)	6% (73)	2.2 (126)
USU Offense	8	52% (42)	42% (74)	19.3	29.9	252.9	8.5	13.1	18 (14)	3 (7)	.29 (59)	1.6 (45)	32% (87)	32% (56)	.43 (34)	4% (24)	2.2 (26)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -7.40 #102
San José State's Offense Rating: 10.00 #60
San José State's Defense Rating: 17.40 #119
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #101
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #69
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #116

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -7.40 Utah State: -7.665

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -8.3 Utah State: -6.0

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.665 #126
Utah State's Offense Rating: 9.10 #68
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.43 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #95
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #58
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.8 #125

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

San José State Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.3
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.3

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
San José State 31
Utah State 31

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Utah State 38
San José State 28

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Utah State 34
San José State 25

Total Points: 59

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/17	Utah State	30	San José State	25	Utah State -3	Utah State	63.5	Under
2023	10/21	San José State	42	Utah State	21	San José State -4	San José State	65.0	Under
2022	11/19	Utah State	35	San José State	31	Utah State -1	Utah State	51.0	Over
2021	11/13	San José State	17	Utah State	48	San José State -4.5	Utah State	58.0	Over
2018	11/10	Utah State	62	San José State	24	Utah State -31	Utah State	63.5	Over
2017	09/23	San José State	10	Utah State	61	Utah State -1.5	Utah State	55.0	Over
2014	11/21	Utah State	41	San José State	7	Utah State -9.5	Utah State	0
2013	09/27	San José State	12	Utah State	40	Utah State -9.5	Utah State	0
2012	10/13	San José State	27	Utah State	49
2011	11/12	Utah State	34	San José State	33
2010	11/13	San José State	34	Utah State	38
2009	11/14	Utah State	24	San José State	9
2008	10/11	San José State	30	Utah State	7
2007	09/22	Utah State	20	San José State	23
2006	10/14	San José State	21	Utah State	14
2005	10/08	Utah State	24	San José State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	12	7	4 Overs
San José State	4	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 6	5 - 3	5 - 1	0 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 10	3 - 5	2 - 0	1 - 5

(#102) SJSU at (#126) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SJSU	USU
Power RatePwr	#102	#126
SP+SP+	#101	#95
Perf GradeGrade	#106	#84
OffenseOff	#100	#83
DefenseDef	#94	#68
Spec TeamsST	#47	#128
TalentTal	#117	#118
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

San José State Notes(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
(5/4) OL 4/5 back, grades are rough. No portals?
San José State Injury Report

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

San José State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USU Def
Perf GradePerf	#100	#68
SuccessSuc	#49	#127
ExplosiveExp	#18	#32
PPAPPA	#32	#121
PowerPwr	#60	#133
SP+SP+	#69	#125
Pts POPPO	#114	#129
HavocHav	#52	#132

San José State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#51	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#129
Run ExplRExp	#49	#102
PPAExp	#66	#130
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#114
TackleTak	-	#99

San José State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#71
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#116
Pass ExplPExl	#47	#5
PPAExp	#38	#83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#125	#98
F7 HavocF7	#6	#135
DB HavocDB	#126	#98

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	SJSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#83	#94
SuccessSuc	#83	#91
ExplosiveExp	#11	#117
PPAPPA	#45	#112
PowerPwr	#68	#119
SP+SP+	#58	#116
Pts POPPO	#4	#97
HavocHav	#90	#103

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	SJSU Def
Run GameRun	#81	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#81
Run ExplRExp	#12	#51
PPAExp	#41	#61
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#38
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#119
TackleTak	-	#118

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	SJSU Def
Pass GamePass	#41	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#95
Pass ExplPExl	#45	#128
PPAExp	#59	#121
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#116	#78
F7 HavocF7	#125	#114
DB HavocDB	#24	#73

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Utah State -3.0 (63.5)
Utah State won vs San José State this year (30-25)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Utah State in 2023 (42-21)
Utah State beat San José State in 2022 (35-31)

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Walker Eget	190	320	59%	2618	17	3	8.2
Xavier Ward	3	10	30%	15	0	1	1.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lamar Radcliffe	57	295	1	5.2	30
Steve Chavez-Soto	47	251	6	5.3	66
Jabari Bates	27	192	2	7.1	87
Floyd Chalk IV	35	141	2	4.0	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)	63	1091	10	17.3	72
Kyri Shoels	46	587	2	12.8	43
Leland Smith (Tr)	28	506	3	18.1	45
Jackson Canaan	23	223	0	9.7	44

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Pollard	64	4	3	4	3
Taniela Latu	48	5	1	1	2
Jaylen Thomas	43	1	0	0	6
Noah McNeal-Franklin	43	5	1	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)	26	6	4	6	1
Jordan Pollard	64	4	3	4	3
Quincy Likio	24	4	2	1	0
Gafa Faga	25	5	2	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Thomas	43	1	0	0	6
Jalen Apalit-Williams	36	0	0	1	4
Jalen Bainer	33	1	1	0	4

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	134	209	64%	1808	14	3	8.7
Jacob Conover	15	25	60%	156	2	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Miles Davis (Tr)	85	576	4	6.8	64
Bryson Barnes	104	367	7	3.5	35
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	47	242	2	5.1	58
Noah White	15	52	0	3.5	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	39	654	5	16.8	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	29	431	3	14.9	53
Broc Lane	17	211	2	12.4	52
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	24	201	2	8.4	30

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	72	7	6	5	1
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	61	0	0	0	6
Noah Avinger (Tr)	54	0	0	0	5
Bronson Olevao	52	5	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	72	7	6	5	1
Bronson Olevao	52	5	3	5	1
Chris Joe	22	3	2	2	0
William Holmes	38	6	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	61	0	6
Noah Avinger (Tr)	54	0	5
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	23	2	4