San José State at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview

San José State Spartans at Utah State Aggies

Friday, October 17th 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Utah State -3 (63.5) (-155) Open: -3.5
Utah State 30 - San José State: 25 (Mountain West)

Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)

SJSU 2nd straight Road Game
SJSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Utah State -4 (SP+ USU -11)
Projected Score: SJSU: 28 - USU: 32 (60)
USU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
SJSU Travel: 617 miles, 1 hrs behind

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
SJSU Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San José State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	San José State vs Central Michigan	-11.5	50.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/6	San José State at Texas	+37.0	52.5	L 7 - 38	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	San José State vs Idaho	-14.5	51.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/27	San José State at Stanford	+3.0	49.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Fri 10/3	San José State vs New Mexico	-1.5	58.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/11	San José State at Wyoming	-1.5	50.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Fri 10/17	San José State at Utah State	+3.0	63.5	L 25 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	San José State vs Hawai'i	-2.5	55.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/8	San José State vs Air Force	-6.0	67.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/15	San José State at Nevada	-10.0	49.5	L 10 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/22	San José State at San Diego State	+10.0	50.5	L 3 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/29	San José State vs Fresno State	+3.5	46.0	L 14 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU	#71 (.18)	44% (56)	21.4	41% (98)	2.27 (133)	88	46% (28)	322	3.6 (96)	#27 (.1)	41% (57)	32.5	42% (66)	39% (47)	3.58 (44)	61.5	2.2	2.2
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)	30.9	48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)	28.7	48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Offense	13	21.4	17	43.9%	3.6	2.2	22	410	88	322	3.6	37%	63%	41%	46%	18%	.18
USU Defense	12	28.7	19.5	47.4%	4.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	48%	48%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Defense	13	32.5	35.5	40.8%	3.58	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	39%	17%	.1
USU Offense	12	30.9	38.3	45.6%	4.42	1.8	23	468	199	269	5.7	46%	54%	48%	44%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San José State	13	26:23	21.7	40%	53%	7	61.5	2.2	2.2	7.2	1.9	2	28.5
Utah State	12	27:19	22.5	40%	50%	7.8	73.8	1.8	1.3	6	2.3	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense	13	37% (131)	41% (98)	24.6	87.9	3.6	13 (105)	-.06 (131)	2.27 (133)	70% (91)	9% (57)	0.81 (127)
USU Defense	12	51% (69)	48% (112)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.45 (128)	76% (85)	10% (70)	0.96 (56)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense	13	53% (94)	42% (66)	-	-	-	-	.03 (21)	2.71 (23)	77% (96)	11% (41)	0.86 (16)
USU Offense	12	46% (102)	48% (24)	35.1	199.3	5.7	21 (59)	.26 (13)	3.41 (12)	65% (117)	8% (39)	1.11 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense	13	63% (3)	46% (28)	24.3	42.3	321.8	7.6	13.2	31 (6)	16 (124)	.33 (39)	1.6 (74)	30% (53)	34% (46)	.38 (49)	9% (131)	2.1 (65)
USU Defense	12	49% (64)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (106)	1.5 (30)	27% (129)	32% (97)	.32 (75)	5% (99)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense	13	47% (43)	39% (47)	-	-	-	-	-	-	21 (1)	.19 (48)	1.7 (105)	34% (36)	29% (45)	.24 (38)	6% (56)	2.1 (87)
USU Offense	12	54% (36)	44% (37)	24.5	38.2	269.1	7.1	11	29 (12)	17 (127)	.25 (69)	1.5 (118)	29% (30)	33% (54)	.4 (38)	8% (124)	2.1 (31)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -8.77 #95
San José State's Offense Rating: 10.64 #84
San José State's Defense Rating: 19.41 #103
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3 #118
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -8.77 Utah State: -7.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -14.3 Utah State: -3.1

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.485 #124
Utah State's Offense Rating: 6.59 #111
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.46 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 32
San José State 28

Projected Total Points: 60

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/17	Utah State	30	San José State	25	Utah State -3	Utah State	63.5	Under
2023	10/21	San José State	42	Utah State	21	San José State -4	San José State	65.0	Under
2022	11/19	Utah State	35	San José State	31	Utah State -1	Utah State	51.0	Over
2021	11/13	San José State	17	Utah State	48	San José State -4.5	Utah State	58.0	Over
2018	11/10	Utah State	62	San José State	24	Utah State -31	Utah State	63.5	Over
2017	09/23	San José State	10	Utah State	61	Utah State -1.5	Utah State	55.0	Over
2014	11/21	Utah State	41	San José State	7	Utah State -9.5	Utah State	0
2013	09/27	San José State	12	Utah State	40	Utah State -9.5	Utah State	0
2012	10/13	San José State	27	Utah State	49
2011	11/12	Utah State	34	San José State	33
2010	11/13	San José State	34	Utah State	38
2009	11/14	Utah State	24	San José State	9
2008	10/11	San José State	30	Utah State	7
2007	09/22	Utah State	20	San José State	23
2006	10/14	San José State	21	Utah State	14
2005	10/08	Utah State	24	San José State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	12	7	4 Overs
San José State	4	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 6	5 - 3	5 - 1	0 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 10	3 - 5	2 - 0	1 - 5

(#95) SJSU at (#124) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SJSU	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#95	#124
SP+SP+	#118	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#116	#97
OffenseOff	#114	#87
DefenseDef	#91	#85
Spec TeamsST	#44	#121
TalentTal	#117	#118
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#101

San José State Notes(11/21) DC Derrick Odum fired after Nevada blowout
(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
San José State Injury Report

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

San José State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#85
SuccessSuc	#56	#122
ExplosiveExp	#54	#42
PPAPPA	#71	#119
PowerPwr	#84	#130
SP+SP+	#108	#98
Pts POPPO	#96	#122
HavocHav	#110	#81

San José State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#76	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#98	#112
Run ExplRExp	#127	#56
PPAExp	#131	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#128
Stuff RateStuff	#134	#95
TackleTak	-	#111

San José State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#28	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#74	#30
PPAExp	#39	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#117	#110
F7 HavocF7	#57	#70
DB HavocDB	#131	#99

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	SJSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#87	#91
SuccessSuc	#31	#57
ExplosiveExp	#59	#48
PPAPPA	#34	#27
PowerPwr	#111	#103
SP+SP+	#53	#115
Pts POPPO	#24	#44
HavocHav	#81	#47

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	SJSU Def
Run GameRun	#68	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#66
Run ExplRExp	#18	#16
PPAExp	#13	#21
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#23
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#30
TackleTak	-	#107

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	SJSU Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#47
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#105
PPAExp	#69	#48
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#96
F7 HavocF7	#39	#41
DB HavocDB	#124	#56

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Utah State -3.0 (63.5)
Utah State won vs San José State this year (30-25)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat San José State last year (30-25)
San José State beat Utah State in 2023 (42-21)

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Walker Eget	232	393	59%	3058	17	9	7.8
Tama Amisone	26	50	52%	205	0	3	4.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Steve Chavez-Soto	87	448	7	5.1	66
Lamar Radcliffe	66	340	1	5.2	30
Jabari Bates	27	192	2	7.1	87
Tama Amisone	34	160	1	4.7	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)	88	1297	10	14.7	72
Kyri Shoels	59	768	2	13.0	43
Leland Smith (Tr)	43	695	3	16.2	45
Jackson Canaan	33	315	0	9.5	44

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Pollard	108	5	3	4	4
Taniela Latu	65	6	1	1	3
Noah McNeal-Franklin	63	6	1	3	2
Jaylen Thomas	59	1	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)	34	7	4	7	1
Jordan Pollard	108	5	3	4	4
Gafa Faga	47	6	3	5	0
Quincy Likio	41	5	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Thomas	59	1	0	0	6
Jalen Bainer	44	1	1	0	5
Jordan Pollard	108	5	3	4	4

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	39	62%	323	4	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	32	2	0	1	5