UTEP at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview
UTEP logo UTEP Miners at Utah State AggiesUtah State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Utah State -3.5 (59.5) (-180)  Open: -3.5 | 59.5
Utah State 28 - UTEP: 16

 
Miners (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (13 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#52)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: UTEP -2.5   (SP+ USU -5)
Projected Score: UTEP: 29 - USU: 27 (56)
USU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UTEP Travel: 749 miles
Aggies (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (39 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
UTEP's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UTEP at Utah State+3.559.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 9/6 UTEP vs UT Martin-7.549.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 UTEP at Texas+39.552.5L 10 - 27UY
Sat 9/20 UTEP vs UL Monroe-5.547.5
Sat 9/27 UTEP vs Louisiana Tech-2.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 UTEP vs Liberty+2.5
Wed 10/15 UTEP at Sam Houston-9
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 UTEP at Kennesaw State-9
Sat 11/8 UTEP vs Jacksonville State-8.5
Sat 11/15 UTEP at Missouri State-8.5
Sat 11/22 UTEP vs New Mexico State-9.5
Sat 11/29 UTEP at Delaware+1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.559.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+34.557.5L 22 - 44OY
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+4.051.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-11
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+33.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i+6
Sat 10/18 Utah State vs San José State+1
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-7
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+13.5
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+9
Sat 11/29 Utah State vs Boise State+14.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTEP#88 (.14)37% (115)22.740% (100)1.86 (134)11635% (112)2234.36 (49)#39 (.04)40% (71)2438% (63)42% (85)3.35 (61)45.31.30.7
USU#72 (.2)40% (101)3334% (121)2.49 (112)13045% (61)2315.31 (21)#94 (.18)47% (115)3050% (118)43% (91)5.38 (130)57.70.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTEP#121 (.07)37% (124)38% (118)2.8 (106)12136% (117)2002.81 (132)#46 (.13)40% (42)40% (42)39% (46)3.85 (78)50.91.61.5
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)48% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)48% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTEP Offense322.71336.9%4.361.3153381162234.243%57%40%35%16%.14
USU Defense3302346.7%5.381.7 - - - - - 57%42%50%43%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTEP Defense32427.539.8%3.350.7 - - - - - 57%43%38%42%18%.04
USU Offense33338.539.8%5.310.3193601302313.947%53%34%45%19%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTEP324:0515.330%40%5.745.31.30.79.33.3026.6
Utah State326:0419.323%100%957.70.31.752029.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense343% (114)40% (100)27.7115.74.24 (79).08 (88)1.86 (134)67% (86)11% (100)1.13 (37)
USU Defense357% (117)50% (118) - - - - .21 (113)2.9 (83)75% (80)7% (109)0.9 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense357% (112)38% (63) - - - - -.02 (43)2.5 (42)47% (18)13% (32)0.92 (69)
USU Offense347% (92)34% (121)33.3129.73.97 (38).18 (52)2.49 (112)50% (124)15% (131)1.56 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense357% (27)35% (112)20.733.7222.76.610.85 (54)3 (92).21 (87)1.5 (71)28% (46)24% (110).4 (54)5% (60)2.6 (9)
USU Defense342% (20)43% (91) - - - - - - 4 (12).16 (54)1.2 (15)24% (130)20% (26)-.04 (16)5% (94)1.3 (4)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense343% (26)42% (85) - - - - - - 1 (87).13 (44)1.4 (38)30% (101)28% (64).11 (32)5% (88)1.4 (8)
USU Offense353% (44)45% (61)17.327230.78.513.36 (34)0 (1).21 (86)1.4 (101)36% (120)28% (93).16 (107)4% (38)2 (60)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -0.57 #81
UTEP's Offense Rating: 4.82 #107
UTEP's Defense Rating: 5.38 #57
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.0 #119
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #117
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #102

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -0.57   Utah State: -10

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -14.0   Utah State: -9.3




Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -10 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


UTEP Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UTEP 29
Utah State 27


Total Points: 56

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.5
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Utah State28UTEP16Utah StateUtah State -3.5Utah State59.5Under
201412/20UTEP6Utah State21Utah StateUtah State -10Utah State45.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Utah State220 Overs
UTEP002 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#81) UTEP Info
Power Rating: -0.57 #81
Offense Rating: 4.82 #107
Defense Rating: 5.38 #57
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.0 #119
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #102
Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.36 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.35 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 0 - 2 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

UTEP Notes
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
(7/24) WR #1 Odom back, depth a ? 6 portals (3 FCS)
(7/24) K Thomas all purpose weapon, All CUSA as PR
(7/12) Last year in CUSA, join MWC in '26
(6/22) Proj #1 CB J Shelton arrested/left UTEP in June
(3/24) RB rebuild. Wilson (Char) a good add
(3/24) OL bad LY, 2/5 back, 2 more with a lot of exp

UTEP Highlights
UTEP Defense Sacks the QB a lot


UTEP Deficiencies
UTEP Can Not Run the Ball (#112)
UTEP offense is really bad (#115)
UTEP Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#123)
UTEP run game is really bad (#100)
UTEP pass game is really bad (#112)
UTEP offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSUUTEP
OverallOver#57#86
OffenseOff#59#101
DefenseDef#60#74
Special TeamsST#103#73
PassingPass#33#107
RushingRush#90#41
Run BlockRBLK#70#88
Pass BlockPBLK#79#91
Route RunningWR Rt#43#96
TacklingTkl#70#1
Run DefenseR Def#61#76
Pass Rush DefPRush#99#32
Coverage DefCov#44#92

Rematch from Week 1
Utah State -3.5 (59.5)
Utah State won vs UTEP this year (28-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UTEP | USU
Depth Chart: UTEP | USU
Rosters: UTEP | USU
(#117) Utah State Info
Power Rating: -10 #117
Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.31 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Utah State Notes
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)

Utah State Highlights
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread
Utah State is Undefeated at Home
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Utah State offense is explosive (#17)
Utah State offense is good in red zone (#21)
Utah State defense does not give up big plays (#12)
Utah State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Utah State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Utah State Deficiencies
Utah State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)
Utah State offense is really bad (#101)
Utah State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#116)
Utah State run game is really bad (#121)
Utah State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Utah State has a bad defense (#115)
Utah State has a bad red zone defense (#130)


  
UTEP's OC Mark Cala
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Malachi Nelson (Tr)609663%665536.9
Skyler Locklear1333%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)14156111.194
Ashten Emory277222.712
Skyler Locklear337012.363
Kam Thomas163602.317
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenny Odom19236212.474
Toric Goins Jr.9170118.949
Trevon Tate (Tr)97408.243
Eric Willis III96407.114

View UTEP's Full Roster
UTEP's DC Bobby Daly
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Micah Davey (Tr)312110
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)196221
Xavier Smith190010
Joshua Rudolph (Tr)181100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)196221
Ashaad Hall (Tr)82221
Elijah Baldwin123201
Micah Davey (Tr)312110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Neil Campbell (Tr)143102
Donte Thompson (Tr)111011
Ashaad Hall (Tr)82221

Utah State's OC Kevin McGiven
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes518064%689508.6
Anthony Garcia (Tr)11100%3103.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Miles Davis (Tr)3119216.258
Javen Jacobs (Tr)2111515.552
Bryson Barnes466941.518
Anthony Garcia (Tr)117117.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)14208314.954
Brady Boyd (Tr)13190014.624
Miles Davis (Tr)97027.830
Javen Jacobs (Tr)75507.918

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Noah Avinger (Tr)260000
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
William Holmes192020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Bronson Olevao183211
Tyree Morris (Tr)152100
Mataira Brown40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
Carl Nesmith40001
Dylan Tucker (Tr)100001