UTEP at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Utah State -3.5 (59.5) (-180) Open: -3.5 | 59.5
Utah State 28 - UTEP: 16

Miners (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (20 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

Our Line: Utah State -7 (SP+ USU -14)
Projected Score: UTEP: 26 - USU: 33 (58)
USU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UTEP Travel: 749 miles

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTEP Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTEP's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	UTEP at Utah State	+3.5	59.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/6	UTEP vs UT Martin	-7.5	49.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/13	UTEP at Texas	+39.5	52.5	L 10 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/20	UTEP vs UL Monroe	-5.5	47.5	L 25 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	UTEP vs Louisiana Tech	+3.5	48.5	L 11 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	UTEP vs Liberty	+1.5	46.5	L 8 - 19	U	N
Wed 10/15	UTEP vs Sam Houston	-3.5	46.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28	UTEP at Kennesaw State	+12.5	53.5	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/8	UTEP vs Jacksonville State	+1.5	46.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/15	UTEP at Missouri State	+6.5	47.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/22	UTEP vs New Mexico State	-4.0	44.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	UTEP at Delaware	+4.5	55.5	L 31 - 61	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)	23.3	38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)	30.4	40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)	30.9	48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)	28.7	48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	20.2	37%	2.81	1.6	17	321	121	200	3.3	52%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.07
USU Defense	12	28.7	19.5	47.4%	4.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	48%	48%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	37.4	39.7%	3.85	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	40%	39%	18%	.13
USU Offense	12	30.9	38.3	45.6%	4.42	1.8	23	468	199	269	5.7	46%	54%	48%	44%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTEP	12	27:57	16.7	33%	30%	5.7	50.9	1.6	1.5	7.1	2.9	2	27.1
Utah State	12	27:19	22.5	40%	50%	7.8	73.8	1.8	1.3	6	2.3	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense	12	52% (56)	38% (118)	36.4	120.8	3.3	9 (125)	.02 (118)	2.8 (106)	59% (127)	13% (125)	0.88 (114)
USU Defense	12	51% (69)	48% (112)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.45 (128)	76% (85)	10% (70)	0.96 (56)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense	12	54% (103)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	.07 (40)	2.85 (44)	59% (7)	12% (18)	1.07 (102)
USU Offense	12	46% (102)	48% (24)	35.1	199.3	5.7	21 (59)	.26 (13)	3.41 (12)	65% (117)	8% (39)	1.11 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense	12	47% (81)	36% (117)	18.6	30.4	200	6.6	10.8	15 (98)	12 (85)	.15 (108)	1.5 (112)	34% (111)	23% (128)	.23 (104)	7% (110)	2.2 (20)
USU Defense	12	49% (64)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (106)	1.5 (30)	27% (129)	32% (97)	.32 (75)	5% (99)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense	12	46% (36)	39% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (54)	1.7 (115)	34% (34)	30% (56)	.28 (59)	6% (66)	2.1 (75)
USU Offense	12	54% (36)	44% (37)	24.5	38.2	269.1	7.1	11	29 (12)	17 (127)	.25 (69)	1.5 (118)	29% (30)	33% (54)	.4 (38)	8% (124)	2.1 (31)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -11.55 #107
UTEP's Offense Rating: 3.75 #123
UTEP's Defense Rating: 15.30 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 662.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
UTEP's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
UTEP's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.5 #129
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #111
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -11.55 Utah State: -7.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -17.5 Utah State: -3.1

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.485 #124
Utah State's Offense Rating: 6.59 #111
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.46 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

UTEP's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 33
UTEP 26

Projected Total Points: 58

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Utah State	28	UTEP	16	Utah State -3.5	Utah State	59.5	Under
2014	12/20	UTEP	6	Utah State	21	Utah State -10	Utah State	45.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	2	2	0 Overs
UTEP	0	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#107) UTEP at (#124) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTEP	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#107	#124
SP+SP+	#129	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#126	#97
OffenseOff	#132	#87
DefenseDef	#102	#85
Spec TeamsST	#101	#121
TalentTal	#82	#118
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#101

UTEP Notes(10/29) Even game w/ Kenn St, St's & 2-16 3rd down killed
(10/8) This offense is pathetic. New OC Mark Cala a disaster
(9/29) QB Nelson benched, Skyler Locklear will take over
(9/28) Off is near worst in CFB. QB Nelson a disaster so far
(9/25) 20 1st Half points in 3 games vs FBS teams
(9/21) Ugly L vs ULM, Run Def mauled, Run Off shit
(9/17) Patchwork OL might be OK once in CUSA play
(9/13) Great fight at Tex, Def played hard, QB OK
(8/30) Run game/Off awful vs USU. QB Nelson bad
(8/21) QB1 M Nelson (BSU) beats Locklear for starter
(8/2) 8 new Def starters, but 3* croots as talent rises
(8/2) Def replaces most, 19 portal adds, better talent
UTEP Injury Report

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

UTEP on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#85
SuccessSuc	#124	#122
ExplosiveExp	#125	#42
PPAPPA	#121	#119
PowerPwr	#123	#130
SP+SP+	#111	#98
Pts POPPO	#132	#122
HavocHav	#126	#81

UTEP Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#109	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#112
Run ExplRExp	#114	#56
PPAExp	#118	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	#106	#128
Stuff RateStuff	#118	#95
TackleTak	-	#111

UTEP Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#30
PPAExp	#108	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#81	#110
F7 HavocF7	#125	#70
DB HavocDB	#110	#99

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UTEP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#87	#102
SuccessSuc	#31	#42
ExplosiveExp	#59	#111
PPAPPA	#34	#46
PowerPwr	#111	#83
SP+SP+	#53	#127
Pts POPPO	#24	#78
HavocHav	#81	#34

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#68	#59
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#42
Run ExplRExp	#18	#102
PPAExp	#13	#40
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#34
TackleTak	-	#29

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#111
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#115
PPAExp	#69	#54
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#123
F7 HavocF7	#39	#18
DB HavocDB	#124	#66

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Utah State -3.5 (59.5)
Utah State won vs UTEP this year (28-16)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat UTEP last year (28-16)

UTEP's OC Mark Cala (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear	117	211	56%	1418	13	11	6.7
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	104	190	55%	1163	8	9	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashten Emory	119	569	4	4.8	56
Skyler Locklear	103	396	8	3.8	63
Hahsaun Wilson (Tr)	46	225	1	4.9	94
Kenny Odom	13	57	0	4.4	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Wondame Davis Jr.	25	604	6	24.2	75
Kenny Odom	62	582	6	9.4	74
Eric Willis III	27	290	2	10.7	43
Josh Schuchts	21	232	3	11.0	64

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bobby Daly (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Micah Davey (Tr)	114	8	1	3	0
Jayden Wilson (Tr)	92	8	1	6	0
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)	41	10	5	3	1
Kadarion Johnson	55	10	4	5	1
Elijah Baldwin	23	6	4	4	4
Ashaad Hall (Tr)	24	4	3	7	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Content	58	6	0	1	6
Xavier Smith	60	2	0	1	4
Solo Barnes (Tr)	59	2	1	1	4

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	39	62%	323	4	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	32	2	0	1	5