Boise State at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Utah State Aggies

Friday, November 28th 2025 (4:00 PM EST)
Boise State -1.5 (54.5) (-120) Open: -4.5 | 55.5
Boise State 25 - Utah State: 24 (Mountain West)

Broncos (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

USU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -9.5 (SP+ BSU -6)
Projected Score: BSU: 32 - USU: 22 (54)
BSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
BSU Travel: 257 miles

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Boise State at South Florida	-8.5	63.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Fri 9/5	Boise State vs Eastern Washington	-33.5	60.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Boise State at Air Force	-10.5	51.5	W 49 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Boise State vs App State	-16.5	59.5	W 47 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Boise State at Notre Dame	+21.5	63.5	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-14.5	58.5	W 41 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Boise State vs UNLV	-12.5	60.5	W 56 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/24	Boise State at Nevada	-20.5	51.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Boise State vs Fresno State	-17.5	47.5	L 7 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Boise State at San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/22	Boise State vs Colorado State	-17.5	46.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/28	Boise State at Utah State	-1.5	54.5	W 25 - 24	U	N
Fri 12/5	Boise State vs UNLV	-6.0	60.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 12/13	Boise State vs Washington	+9.5	55.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)	29.9	49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)	24.1	39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)	30.9	48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)	28.7	48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	29.9	19.8	48.3%	4.83	0.6	22	437	234	204	6.5	55%	44%	49%	48%	12%	.36
USU Defense	12	28.7	19.5	47.4%	4.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	48%	48%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	24.1	23.8	38.2%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	39%	37%	20%	.16
USU Offense	12	30.9	38.3	45.6%	4.42	1.8	23	468	199	269	5.7	46%	54%	48%	44%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	29:25	21.6	49%	71%	4.5	39.8	0.6	1.1	7.4	3.6	3	30.1
Utah State	12	27:19	22.5	40%	50%	7.8	73.8	1.8	1.3	6	2.3	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	55% (31)	49% (17)	36.2	233.5	6.5	42 (3)	.32 (6)	3.22 (39)	86% (3)	7% (10)	1.22 (5)
USU Defense	12	51% (69)	48% (112)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.45 (128)	76% (85)	10% (70)	0.96 (56)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	43% (3)	39% (33)	-	-	-	-	.13 (72)	2.8 (34)	62% (12)	15% (3)	1.1 (113)
USU Offense	12	46% (102)	48% (24)	35.1	199.3	5.7	21 (59)	.26 (13)	3.41 (12)	65% (117)	8% (39)	1.11 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	44% (103)	48% (12)	17	27.1	203.9	7.5	12	22 (46)	4 (1)	.41 (12)	1.5 (119)	29% (23)	35% (28)	.37 (55)	6% (58)	1.9 (111)
USU Defense	12	49% (64)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (106)	1.5 (30)	27% (129)	32% (97)	.32 (75)	5% (99)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	57% (133)	37% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.18 (42)	1.7 (96)	36% (10)	30% (62)	.41 (105)	6% (83)	2.3 (124)
USU Offense	12	54% (36)	44% (37)	24.5	38.2	269.1	7.1	11	29 (12)	17 (127)	.25 (69)	1.5 (118)	29% (30)	33% (54)	.4 (38)	8% (124)	2.1 (31)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 0.57 #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.41 #68
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.84 #61
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1 #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 0.57 Utah State: -7.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.1 Utah State: -3.1

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.485 #124
Utah State's Offense Rating: 6.59 #111
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.46 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 32
Utah State 22

Projected Total Points: 54

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Utah State	24	Boise State	25	Boise State -1.5	Utah State	54.5	Under
2024	10/05	Boise State	62	Utah State	30	Boise State -28	Boise State	66.5	Over
2023	11/18	Utah State	10	Boise State	45	Boise State -5.5	Boise State	62.5	Under
2022	11/25	Boise State	42	Utah State	23	Boise State -17	Boise State	51.5	Over
2021	09/25	Utah State	3	Boise State	27	Boise State -9.5	Boise State	69.5	Under
2020	10/24	Boise State	42	Utah State	13	Boise State -17	Boise State	51.0	Over
2019	11/23	Utah State	21	Boise State	56	Boise State -9.5	Boise State	53.0	Over
2018	11/24	Boise State	33	Utah State	24	Boise State -2.5	Boise State	65.0	Under
2017	10/28	Utah State	14	Boise State	41	Boise State -13	Boise State	51.5	Over
2016	10/01	Boise State	21	Utah State	10	Boise State -19.5	Utah State	60.5	Under
2015	10/16	Utah State	52	Boise State	26	Boise State -8.5	Utah State	50.5	Over
2014	11/29	Boise State	50	Utah State	19	Boise State -9	Boise State	0
2013	10/12	Utah State	23	Boise State	34	Boise State -7.5	Boise State	0
2010	12/04	Boise State	50	Utah State	14
2009	11/20	Utah State	21	Boise State	52
2008	11/08	Boise State	49	Utah State	14
2007	11/10	Utah State	0	Boise State	52
2006	11/18	Boise State	49	Utah State	10
2005	10/22	Utah State	21	Boise State	45
2002	09/28	Boise State	63	Utah State	38
2000	11/10	Boise State	66	Utah State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	1	3	6 Overs
Boise State	20	10	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 9	7 - 6	5 - 1	2 - 5
Road Teams	9 - 12	6 - 7	5 - 2	1 - 5

(#67) BSU at (#124) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#67	#124
SP+SP+	#64	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#86	#97
OffenseOff	#81	#87
DefenseDef	#77	#85
Spec TeamsST	#54	#121
TalentTal	#77	#118
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#101

Boise State Notes(12/13) Could not physically compete with Washington & ND
(12/6) MWC champs after beating UNLV
(12/6) RB duo of Riley & Gaines proved incredible late
(12/6) HC Danielson won MWC in every year he coached
(11/28) Cutforth 340 yds, Run Off ok in W over Utah St
(11/28) Run Def has been bad, Utah St 221 yds, 6.5 ypc
(11/3) QB1 Maddux Madsen carted off in Fresno loss
(11/3) QB2 Max Cutforth awful vs Fresno (< 50%, 2 Int)
(10/4) TE M Lauter out vs ND. Huge loss
(9/20) RB Dylan Riley 255 yds, 5 TD vs AFA. Def still bad
(8/29) Pass Def bad, Run Off worse in loss at USF
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
Boise State Injury Report

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

Boise State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#85
SuccessSuc	#12	#122
ExplosiveExp	#37	#42
PPAPPA	#3	#119
PowerPwr	#68	#130
SP+SP+	#55	#98
Pts POPPO	#4	#122
HavocHav	#20	#81

Boise State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#23	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#112
Run ExplRExp	#5	#56
PPAExp	#6	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#39	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#128
Stuff RateStuff	#58	#95
TackleTak	-	#111

Boise State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#119	#30
PPAExp	#12	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#110
F7 HavocF7	#10	#70
DB HavocDB	#58	#99

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#87	#77
SuccessSuc	#31	#27
ExplosiveExp	#59	#119
PPAPPA	#34	#59
PowerPwr	#111	#61
SP+SP+	#53	#60
Pts POPPO	#24	#24
HavocHav	#81	#7

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#68	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#33
Run ExplRExp	#18	#113
PPAExp	#13	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#34
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#21
TackleTak	-	#134

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#19
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#96
PPAExp	#69	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#82
F7 HavocF7	#39	#3
DB HavocDB	#124	#83

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
Boise State 1.5 (54.5)
Boise State won at Utah State this year (25-24)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Utah State last year (25-24)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2024 (62-30)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2023 (45-10)

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	176	302	58%	2333	18	9	7.7
Max Cutforth	95	167	57%	1059	4	5	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Riley	195	1125	10	5.8	77
Sire Gaines	161	812	8	5.0	46
Malik Sherrod (Tr)	85	418	4	4.9	44
Maddux Madsen	57	81	4	1.4	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Latrell Caples	51	616	3	12.1	34
Chris Marshall	30	574	2	19.1	46
Chase Penry	30	394	1	13.1	46
Matt Lauter	37	330	2	8.9	20

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	105	9	0	1	3
Marco Notarainni	77	6	3	8	2
Zion Washington	66	3	1	1	2
Boen Phelps	66	4	1	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Virgin	56	13	6	12
Braxton Fely	24	7	6	5
Sterling Lane	6	3	3	1
Malakai Williams (Tr)	11	4	3	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Earby	60	2	1	0	9
Sherrod Smith	14	1	0	0	6
Jaden Mickey (Tr)	38	7	1	1	5

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	39	62%	323	4	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	32	2	0	1	5