Boise State at Utah State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at Utah State AggiesUtah State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Romney Stadium - Logan, UT  (Mountain West)

 
Broncos (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (7 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
USU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -14.5   (SP+ BSU -13)

Projected Score: BSU: 35 - USU: 21 (56)
BSU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
BSU Travel: 257 miles
Aggies (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (39 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-8.563.5L 7 - 34UN
Fri 9/5 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33.560.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-17
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+16.5
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-22
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-8.5
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-19
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-14.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.559.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+34.557.5L 22 - 44OY
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+4.051.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-11
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+33.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i+6
Sat 10/18 Utah State vs San José State+1
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-7
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+13.5
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+9
Sat 11/29 Utah State vs Boise State+14.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#75 (.19)47% (42)2954% (25)2.97 (71)22541% (89)2832.81 (120)#65 (.12)29% (9)2431% (16)27% (12)4.56 (107)561.51
USU#72 (.2)40% (101)3334% (121)2.49 (112)13045% (61)2315.31 (21)#94 (.18)47% (115)3050% (118)43% (91)5.38 (130)57.70.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)48% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)48% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense229747.1%2.811.5245082252835.848%52%54%41%16%.19
USU Defense3302346.7%5.381.7 - - - - - 57%42%50%43%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense2243429.2%4.561 - - - - - 47%53%31%27%17%.12
USU Offense33338.539.8%5.310.3193601302313.947%53%34%45%19%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State232:2223.543%29%7561.5172.5033
Utah State326:0419.323%100%957.70.31.752029.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense248% (84)54% (25)38.52255.85 (62).16 (60)2.97 (71)80% (36)10% (86)0.84 (98)
USU Defense357% (117)50% (118) - - - - .21 (113)2.9 (83)75% (80)7% (109)0.9 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense247% (47)31% (16) - - - - .15 (102)2.85 (77)57% (28)13% (33)1.65 (135)
USU Offense347% (92)34% (121)33.3129.73.97 (38).18 (52)2.49 (112)50% (124)15% (131)1.56 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense252% (51)41% (89)2238.5282.57.312.83 (90)0 (1).22 (81)1.4 (98)36% (115)35% (45).04 (120)6% (86)1 (136)
USU Defense342% (20)43% (91) - - - - - - 4 (12).16 (54)1.2 (15)24% (130)20% (26)-.04 (16)5% (94)1.3 (4)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense253% (92)27% (12) - - - - - - 1 (87).1 (37)2 (129)50% (2)21% (30).2 (56)4% (104)2.8 (131)
USU Offense353% (44)45% (61)17.327230.78.513.36 (34)0 (1).21 (86)1.4 (101)36% (120)28% (93).16 (107)4% (38)2 (60)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.30 #67
Boise State's Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Boise State's Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 5.30   Utah State: -10

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.9   Utah State: -9.3




Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -10 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 35
Utah State 21


Total Points: 56

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.5
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Boise State62Utah State30Boise StateBoise State -28Boise State66.5Over
202311/18Utah State10Boise State45Boise StateBoise State -5.5Boise State62.5Under
202211/25Boise State42Utah State23Boise StateBoise State -17Boise State51.5Over
202109/25Utah State3Boise State27Boise StateBoise State -9.5Boise State69.5Under
202010/24Boise State42Utah State13Boise StateBoise State -17Boise State51.0Over
201911/23Utah State21Boise State56Boise StateBoise State -9.5Boise State53.0Over
201811/24Boise State33Utah State24Boise StateBoise State -2.5Boise State65.0Under
201710/28Utah State14Boise State41Boise StateBoise State -13Boise State51.5Over
201610/01Boise State21Utah State10Boise StateBoise State -19.5Utah State60.5Under
201510/16Utah State52Boise State26Utah StateBoise State -8.5Utah State50.5Over
201411/29Boise State50Utah State19Boise StateBoise State -9Boise State0
201310/12Utah State23Boise State34Boise StateBoise State -7.5Boise State0
201012/04Boise State50Utah State14Boise State
200911/20Utah State21Boise State52Boise State
200811/08Boise State49Utah State14Boise State
200711/10Utah State0Boise State52Boise State
200611/18Boise State49Utah State10Boise State
200510/22Utah State21Boise State45Boise State
200209/28Boise State63Utah State38Boise State
200011/10Boise State66Utah State38Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Utah State126 Overs
Boise State19104 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 86 - 65 - 11 - 5
Road Teams8 - 126 - 65 - 11 - 5

(#67) Boise State Info
Power Rating: 5.30 #67
Offense Rating: 12.05 #74
Defense Rating: 6.74 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 692.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.81 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 29%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.56 PPO
Great Run Def Success 31%
Great Pass Def Success 27%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Boise State has lost 9 straight
Boise State has lost 5 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Boise State Notes
(8/27) WR Marshall getting buzz, former 5* croot
(7/31) Def tackling was a big issue LY, not a fan of DC
(6/8) RB Sherrod had 960 yds rush, 44/260 rec in '23
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs

Boise State Highlights
Boise State has a really good defense (#9)
Boise State has a good run defense (#16)
Boise State has a good pass defense (#12)

Boise State Deficiencies
Boise State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Boise State offense is not Explosive (#112)
Boise State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#126)
Boise State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#120)
Boise State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#136)
Boise State has a bad red zone defense (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSUBSU
OverallOver#57#53
OffenseOff#59#40
DefenseDef#60#62
Special TeamsST#103#85
PassingPass#33#64
RushingRush#90#21
Run BlockRBLK#70#17
Pass BlockPBLK#79#72
Route RunningWR Rt#43#72
TacklingTkl#70#110
Run DefenseR Def#61#66
Pass Rush DefPRush#99#64
Coverage DefCov#44#51

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Utah State last year (62-30)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2023 (45-10)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2022 (42-23)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BSU | USU
Depth Chart: BSU | USU
Rosters: BSU | USU
(#117) Utah State Info
Power Rating: -10 #117
Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.31 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Utah State has lost 8 straight
Utah State has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Utah State Notes
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)

Utah State Highlights
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread
Utah State is Undefeated at Home
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Utah State offense is explosive (#17)
Utah State offense is good in red zone (#21)
Utah State defense does not give up big plays (#12)
Utah State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Utah State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Utah State Deficiencies
Utah State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)
Utah State offense is really bad (#101)
Utah State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#116)
Utah State run game is really bad (#121)
Utah State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Utah State has a bad defense (#115)
Utah State has a bad red zone defense (#130)


  
Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen417257%532307.4
Max Cutforth3560%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley13143111.077
Sire Gaines2314216.246
Malik Sherrod (Tr)186913.820
Maddux Madsen156614.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Marshall6151125.246
Ben Ford7126218.060
Matt Lauter880010.020
Latrell Caples569013.816

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield153000
Marco Notarainni131040
Jeremiah Earby111100
Zion Washington110001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braxton Fely82200
Lopez Sanusi21100
Dion Washington (Tr)31100
Max Stege31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy10002
Zion Washington110001
Travis Anderson10001

Utah State's OC Kevin McGiven
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes518064%689508.6
Anthony Garcia (Tr)11100%3103.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Miles Davis (Tr)3119216.258
Javen Jacobs (Tr)2111515.552
Bryson Barnes466941.518
Anthony Garcia (Tr)117117.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)14208314.954
Brady Boyd (Tr)13190014.624
Miles Davis (Tr)97027.830
Javen Jacobs (Tr)75507.918

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Noah Avinger (Tr)260000
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
William Holmes192020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Bronson Olevao183211
Tyree Morris (Tr)152100
Mataira Brown40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
Carl Nesmith40001
Dylan Tucker (Tr)100001